IPFW hosts Western Michigan on 12 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names IPFW the favourite with an 87% chance of victory, a projection of 83-70 and a total of 152.4 points, reflecting IPFW's 1-1 record, 87.0 points per game and 71.5 allowed per game, and a perfect 1-0 home record with 103.0 points scored and 65.0 allowed; Western Michigan is 2-1 overall, 78.3 points per game and 61.3 allowed, and 0-1 on the road with 49.0 points and 61.0 allowed. IPFW's last five games include a 103-65 win over Albion at home and two recent losses, while Western Michigan's last five feature two home wins over Campbell and Kalamazoo and a 49-61 loss away to Old Dominion. In the two prior meetings Western Michigan has won both, most recently 83-71 in 2025. The model gives IPFW a 90% probability of covering the 2.5-point line and a 52% chance of the 151.5-point over, with a 3% chance of overtime. The next game will test whether IPFW can translate its strong home scoring into a decisive win.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
IPFW winLost
86.9%fair 1.15
Best odds2.43
Implied40.1%
Edge+46.7pp
Western Michigan winWon
13.1%fair 7.63
Best odds1.61
Implied59.9%
Edge-46.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 11 Nov 07:02 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (IPFW) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 148Actual: Under 148
Over 148
60.6%
@ 1.57+1.7pp
Under 148
39.4%
@ 2.25-1.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.57
Under
Bet365
2.25
Over/Under 153 · main lineActual: Under 153
Over 153
48.1%
@ 2.05-2.4pp
Under 153
51.9%
@ 1.92+2.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.85
Bet365
1.68
Over/Under 158Actual: Under 158
Over 158
35.9%
@ 2.80+2.9pp
Under 158
64.1%
@ 1.38-2.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.80
Under
Bet365
1.38
📊 3. Team Totals
IPFW total 69.5Actual: IPFW under 69.5
Over 69.5
no forecast
@ 1.34
Under 69.5
no forecast
@ 3.20
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.30
Under
1xBet
3.20
Bet365
3.05
Betano
2.82
IPFW total 74 · main lineActual: IPFW under 74
Over 74
81.6%
@ 1.85+31.3pp
Under 74
18.4%
@ 1.87-31.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
IPFW total 78Actual: IPFW under 78
Over 78
68.6%
Under 78
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Western Michigan total 73Actual: Western Michigan over 73
Over 73
36.6%
Under 73
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Western Michigan total 77 · main lineActual: Western Michigan over 77
Over 77
22.9%
@ 1.85-27.5pp
Under 77
77.1%
@ 1.88+27.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Western Michigan total 81Push
Over 81
12.9%
Under 81
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread IPFW +0.5Actual: Western Michigan -0.5
IPFW +0.5
86.9%
WEST -0.5
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
IPFW
No market prices yet.
WEST
No market prices yet.
Spread IPFW +3.5 · main lineActual: Western Michigan -3.5
IPFW +3.5
91.2%
@ 1.93+41.3pp
WEST -3.5
8.8%
@ 1.93-41.3pp
Best 5 market prices
IPFW
Bet365
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
WEST
SBO
1.93
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.88
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread IPFW +6.5Actual: Western Michigan -6.5
IPFW +6.5
94.5%
@ 1.57+34.4pp
WEST -6.5
5.5%
@ 2.45-34.4pp
Best 5 market prices
IPFW
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.52
WEST
Bet365
2.45
Betano
2.22
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
IPFWWestern Michigan
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (IPFW) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Western Michigan win
IPFW win
no forecast
@ 2.18
WEST win
no forecast
@ 1.70
2nd half Spread IPFW +1.5 · main lineActual: Western Michigan -1.5
IPFW +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
WEST -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half Over/Under 80.5 · main lineActual: Under 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Western Michigan (regulation)
IPFW
no forecast
@ 2.22
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.50
WEST
no forecast
@ 1.75
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
IPFW -4
79.9%
3.00
Bet365
3.00
-
-
-
-
+49.0pp
Lost
IPFW (regulation)
85.2%
2.48
Marathon Bet
2.49
Betano
2.47
-
-
-
+49.0pp
Lost
IPFW -4.5
77.7%
3.12
Betano
3.20
Bet365
3.05
-
-
-
+48.2pp
Lost
IPFW -3
82.3%
2.70
Bet365
2.70
-
-
-
-
+48.1pp
Lost
IPFW -3.5
80.5%
2.83
Betano
2.92
Bet365
2.75
-
-
-
+48.0pp
Lost
IPFW -2
84.9%
2.50
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
-
+47.9pp
Lost
IPFW -5.5
74.8%
3.40
Betano
3.40
-
-
-
-
+47.6pp
Lost
IPFW -2.5
82.7%
2.62
Betano
2.70
Bet365
2.55
-
-
-
+47.5pp
Lost
IPFW -1.5
85.3%
2.41
Betano
2.47
Bet365
2.35
-
-
-
+47.0pp
Lost
IPFW +1.5
88.2%
2.00
Pinnacle
2.32
Betano
2.15
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.86
SBO
1.81
+46.9pp
Lost
IPFW +2
89.8%
2.02
Pinnacle
2.23
Bet365
2.02
SBO
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.91
-
+46.8pp
Lost
IPFW win
86.9%
2.36
Bet365
2.43
Betano
2.40
Pinnacle
2.40
WilliamHill
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
+46.7pp
Lost
IPFW +1
88.0%
2.11
Pinnacle
2.30
Bet365
2.12
Marathon Bet
1.91
-
-
+46.4pp
Lost
IPFW +2.5
90.0%
1.96
Pinnacle
2.13
Betano
2.05
Bet365
1.97
SBO
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.86
+44.9pp
Lost
IPFW +3
91.1%
1.93
Pinnacle
2.03
Marathon Bet
1.92
Bet365
1.92
SBO
1.85
-
+43.8pp
Lost
IPFW -6.5
71.7%
3.25
Betano
3.25
-
-
-
-
+43.3pp
Lost
IPFW +3.5
91.2%
1.88
Bet365
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87
+41.3pp
Lost
IPFW -1
86.7%
2.06
Bet365
2.28
Marathon Bet
1.97
SBO
1.93
-
-
+40.7pp
Lost
IPFW +4
92.4%
1.78
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.81
Bet365
1.71
-
-
+40.0pp
Lost
IPFW 0
86.9%
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.91
-
-
-
-
+38.1pp
Lost
IPFW +4.5
92.5%
1.75
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathon Bet
1.75
Bet365
1.68
-
+38.0pp
Lost
IPFW +5
93.5%
1.66
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
+37.0pp
Lost
IPFW +5.5
93.6%
1.62
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
Bet365
1.58
-
-
+35.2pp
Lost
IPFW +6.5
94.5%
1.54
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+34.4pp
Lost
IPFW +6
94.5%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+34.2pp
Lost
IPFW +7.5
95.4%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+32.3pp
Lost
IPFW +7
95.3%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+31.4pp
Lost
IPFW over 74
81.6%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+31.3pp
Lost
Western Michigan under 78
80.0%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+30.3pp
Lost
IPFW +8.5
96.1%
1.40
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+29.9pp
Lost
Western Michigan under 77.5
77.8%
1.88
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
+29.8pp
Lost
Western Michigan under 76.5
74.8%
1.94
Pinnacle
2.09
Betano
2.05
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.88
Bet365
1.86
+29.7pp
Lost
IPFW +8
96.0%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+29.6pp
Lost
Western Michigan under 78.5
80.5%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
+29.5pp
Lost
Western Michigan under 79.5
83.0%
1.65
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.50
-
-
+29.2pp
Lost
IPFW over 75
78.7%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+28.5pp
Lost
IPFW over 74.5
79.4%
1.84
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.83
+27.9pp
Lost
IPFW +9.5
96.7%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+27.7pp
Lost
IPFW over 75.5
76.4%
1.92
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.86
-
+27.7pp
Lost
IPFW over 73.5
82.1%
1.78
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.73
Betano
1.70
+27.6pp
Lost
Western Michigan under 77
77.1%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+27.5pp
Lost
IPFW +9
96.6%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+27.3pp
Lost
IPFW over 76.5
73.2%
1.98
Betano
2.10
Bet365
1.86
-
-
-
+27.0pp
Lost
Western Michigan under 75.5
71.7%
2.16
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.07
Bet365
1.83
-
+26.1pp
Lost
IPFW +10.5
97.2%
1.30
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+25.8pp
Lost
IPFW +10
97.2%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+25.4pp
Lost
Western Michigan under 76
74.0%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
-
-
+24.6pp
Lost
IPFW over 72.5
84.6%
1.54
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.50
-
-
-
+24.4pp
Lost
IPFW over 71.5
86.8%
1.49
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
+24.3pp
Lost
IPFW +11.5
97.6%
1.26
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+23.9pp
Lost
IPFW +11
97.6%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+23.3pp
Lost
Western Michigan under 80.5
85.3%
1.51
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
-
+22.8pp
Lost
IPFW +12.5
98.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+21.8pp
Lost
IPFW +17.5
99.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+13.6pp
Lost
IPFW +22.5
99.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Won
Overtime: no
97.3%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Over 126.5
94.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Over 143.5
70.6%
1.34
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Lost
Under 176.5
92.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Over 131.5
90.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Over 141.5
74.7%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Lost
Under 171.5
87.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
Over 136.5
83.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
Under 166.5
80.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Under 161.5
71.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Won
Western Michigan over 58.5
86.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.0pp
Won
IPFW under 93.5
86.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.3pp
Won
Western Michigan over 60.5
81.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-9.6pp
Won
IPFW under 91.5
81.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-10.0pp
Won
Western Michigan +22.5
80.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-12.3pp
Won
Western Michigan over 62.5
76.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-14.0pp
Won
IPFW under 89.5
75.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-14.8pp
Won
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Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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