Ironi Nahariya will host Maccabi Kiryat Gat on 14 November 2026 in the Liga Leumit, and the Pythia model designates Ironi Nahariya as the clear favourite, giving them a 90% chance of victory, a figure that reflects their 4-1 season record, 84.4 points per game and 74.2 allowed per game, placing them third in the league, and a flawless 2-0 home record with 75.5 points scored and 62.0 allowed. Maccabi Kiryat Gat, meanwhile, sit 13th with a 1-3 record, 76.8 points per game and 85.5 allowed per game, and have struggled on the road, going 0-2 with 71.5 points scored and 83.5 allowed. Ironi Nahariya's recent form includes a 78-69 win over H. Hevel Modiin away, an 80-66 win at home over Maccabi Raanana and a narrow 104-109 loss to Elitzur Ashkelon away, while Maccabi Kiryat Gat's last five feature a 80-79 win at home over Hapoel Haifa, a 75-79 loss to H. Hevel Modiin away and a 84-96 defeat to Maccabi Raanana at home. Historically, Ironi Nahariya has dominated the rivalry with seven wins to one, most recently defeating Maccabi Kiryat Gat 94-71 on 28 April 2026. The model projects a final score of 89-75, a total of 163.8 points, and a 68% probability that Ironi Nahariya will cover the home line of -9.5; the over on the 161.0 line has a 57% chance, and there is a 2% chance of overtime. Ironi Nahariya's recent 104-109 loss to Elitzur Ashkelon on 30 October 2026 remains a concrete reminder of the league's competitive edge.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ironi Nahariya winWon
90.0%fair 1.11
Best odds1.26
Implied80.0%
Edge+9.9pp
Maccabi Kiryat Gat winLost
10.0%fair 9.98
Best odds4.60
Implied20.0%
Edge-9.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:45 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Ironi NahariyaLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Elitzur Shomron
#7
W
26-14
26
14
+12
H21/05
Liga Leumit
Maccabi Ashdod
#4
L
22-29
22
29
-7
H31/05
Liga Leumit
Maccabi Ashdod
#4
L
22-24
22
24
-2
A04/06
Liga Leumit
Maccabi Ashdod
#4
W
14-11
14
11
+3
H08/06
Liga Leumit
Maccabi Ashdod
#4
L
16-20
16
20
-4
A11/06
Liga Leumit
Migdal Haemek
#15
W
22-18
22
18
+4
A16/10
Liga Leumit
Elitzur Yavne
#14
W
21-19
21
19
+2
H22/10
Liga Leumit
Elitzur Ashkelon
#10
L
25-26
25
26
-1
A30/10
Liga Leumit
Maccabi Raanana
#3
D
18-18
18
18
+0
H03/11
Liga Leumit
H. Hevel Modiin
#13
L
14-18
14
18
-4
A10/11
Liga Leumit
39.7Avg total
20.0Scored
19.7Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 40.5
Last 30 (30)
21.4
19.9
41.3
+1.5
53%
47%
Last 30 at home (14)
20.6
17.8
38.4
+2.8
57%
29%
Last 30 away (16)
22.1
21.8
43.8
+0.3
50%
62%
Last 10 (10)
20.0
19.7
39.7
+0.3
40%
30%
Last 5 (5)
20.0
19.8
39.8
+0.2
40%
20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)
15.0
21.0
36.0
-6.0
0%
0%
vs Similar (6)
18.2
20.5
38.7
-2.3
17%
33%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)
22.5
19.7
42.2
+2.8
65%
52%
This opponent (Maccabi Kiryat Gat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Ironi Nahariya -6
79.2%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.69
-
-
-
-
+25.2pp
Won
Ironi Nahariya -6.5
77.0%
1.55
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.37
-
-
+24.9pp
Won
Ironi Nahariya -5
81.8%
1.59
Pinnacle
1.59
-
-
-
-
+24.7pp
Won
Ironi Nahariya -5.5
79.8%
1.46
Pinnacle
1.64
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.30
-
-
+24.2pp
Won
Ironi Nahariya -2.5
86.5%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+19.0pp
Won
Ironi Nahariya -4.5
82.3%
1.42
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
+18.7pp
Won
Ironi Nahariya -1.5
88.7%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+18.4pp
Won
Ironi Nahariya over 84
71.1%
1.63
1xBet
1.63
-
-
-
-
+18.2pp
Won
Ironi Nahariya over 80.5
81.2%
1.40
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.36
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Won
Ironi Nahariya (regulation)
88.6%
1.21
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Won
Ironi Nahariya -3.5
84.7%
1.35
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
-
+16.6pp
Won
Ironi Nahariya -7
76.4%
1.51
Pinnacle
1.51
-
-
-
-
+16.3pp
Won
Ironi Nahariya +1.5
91.0%
1.21
Betano
1.21
-
-
-
-
+15.2pp
Won
Ironi Nahariya -9
70.2%
1.73
SBO
1.79
Pinnacle
1.67
-
-
-
+14.5pp
Push
Ironi Nahariya -8
73.4%
1.56
Pinnacle
1.56
-
-
-
-
+14.1pp
Won
Ironi Nahariya -8.5
71.1%
1.69
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.80
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.61
1xBet
1.53
+13.5pp
Won
Ironi Nahariya -7.5
74.2%
1.64
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.80
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.52
1xBet
1.44
+13.3pp
Won
Ironi Nahariya over 82.5
75.4%
1.42
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.33
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Won
Ironi Nahariya over 81.5
78.4%
1.35
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.28
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
Ironi Nahariya win
90.0%
1.18
Bet365
1.26
Betano
1.23
WilliamHill
1.20
Betfair
1.17
SBO
1.17
+9.9pp
Won
Maccabi Kiryat Gat under 80.5
72.6%
1.42
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.39
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
Maccabi Kiryat Gat under 81.5
75.7%
1.35
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.33
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Maccabi Kiryat Gat under 82.5
78.6%
1.28
1xBet
1.28
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Ironi Nahariya over 83.5
72.1%
1.43
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.39
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Won
Over 154.5
71.5%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Overtime: no
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
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Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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