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Italy vs Poland Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 14 Sep 2018
Tip-off: 18:15
Final 101-82
25-25 29-27 19-13 28-17
Position#14
Record4-2
FormWLLLW
Points / game79.0
Allowed / game67.5
Italy 🏆
vs
Position#19
Record3-3
FormLLWWL
Points / game72.7
Allowed / game68.3
EuropeWorld Cup
Other2019
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Italy winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Poland winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Greece
#3
L
70-73 OT
70
73
-3
A24/08
Acropolis Tournament
Georgia
#2
W
73-65
73
65
+8
A25/08
Acropolis Tournament
Romania
#58
W
75-70
75
70
+5
H24/11
World Cup
Croatia
#52
W
80-64
80
64
+16
A26/11
World Cup
Netherlands
#50
W
80-62
80
62
+18
H23/02
World Cup
Romania
#58
W
101-50
101
50
+51
A26/02
World Cup
Croatia
#52
L
72-78
72
78
-6
H28/06
World Cup
Netherlands
#50
L
66-81
66
81
-15
A01/07
World Cup
Czech Republic
#18
L
80-87
80
87
-7
H07/09
Friendly International
Germany
#56
W
71-62
71
62
+9
H08/09
Friendly International
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-20
15-13
14-17
19-14
26-17
15-14
17-24
15-10
26-15
16-13
17-15
16-27
15-23
20-9
25-15
20-17
26-13
19-21
18-14
17-14
35-12
12-13
29-11
25-14
24-21
15-20
13-24
20-13
15-19
15-19
19-20
17-23
15-23
25-25
15-17
25-22
16-26
20-8
24-17
11-11
146.0Avg total
76.8Scored
69.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)79.067.5146.5+11.567%
Season at home (3)75.770.0145.7+5.767%
Season away (3)82.365.0147.3+17.367%
Last 10 (10)76.869.2146.0+7.660%
Last 5 (5)78.071.6149.6+6.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)70.079.7149.7-9.733%
vs Similar (4)72.074.5146.5-2.525%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)77.664.4142.0+13.179%
This opponent (Poland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PolandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Germany
#3
W
80-75
80
75
+5
A19/08
DBB Supercup
Russia
#4
W
81-78
81
78
+3
H20/08
DBB Supercup
Hungary
#33
W
70-60
70
60
+10
H24/11
World Cup
Lithuania
#4
L
55-75
55
75
-20
A26/11
World Cup
Kosovo
#68
W
90-62
90
62
+28
H23/02
World Cup
Hungary
#33
L
57-64
57
64
-7
A26/02
World Cup
Lithuania
#4
L
61-79
61
79
-18
H28/06
World Cup
Kosovo
#68
W
103-70
103
70
+33
A01/07
World Cup
Israel
#41
W
84-76
84
76
+8
A07/09
Friendly International
Russia
#20
L
68-88
68
88
-20
A08/09
Friendly International
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-15
16-21
23-20
22-19
12-15
22-16
17-23
30-24
14-16
8-13
17-11
31-20
17-13
8-25
14-18
16-19
20-12
28-14
26-19
16-17
14-12
18-20
12-24
13-8
17-14
8-22
22-17
14-26
30-23
27-11
23-25
23-11
27-16
19-23
20-19
18-18
22-24
17-20
11-18
18-26
147.6Avg total
74.9Scored
72.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)72.768.3141.0+4.350%
Season at home (3)73.767.0140.7+6.767%
Season away (3)71.769.7141.3+2.033%
Last 10 (10)74.972.7147.6+2.260%
Last 5 (5)74.675.4150.0-0.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)69.381.6150.9-12.211%
vs Similar (2)81.577.0158.5+4.550%
vs Weaker (6)80.268.2148.3+12.083%
This opponent (Italy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.5+2.5Q1: +3.2+3.2Q2Q2: +1.7+1.7Q2: -1.4-1.4Q3Q3: +1.7+1.7Q3: -0.9-0.9Q4Q4: +2.0+2.0Q4: +1.3+1.3
ItalyPoland
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ItalyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Greece
#3
L
31-33
31
33
-2
A24/08
Acropolis Tournament
Georgia
#2
W
41-31
41
31
+10
A25/08
Acropolis Tournament
Romania
#58
W
42-28
42
28
+14
H24/11
World Cup
Croatia
#52
W
35-32
35
32
+3
A26/11
World Cup
Netherlands
#50
W
45-34
45
34
+11
H23/02
World Cup
Romania
#58
W
47-25
47
25
+22
A26/02
World Cup
Croatia
#52
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H28/06
World Cup
Netherlands
#50
L
30-38
30
38
-8
A01/07
World Cup
Czech Republic
#18
L
40-48
40
48
-8
H07/09
Friendly International
Germany
#56
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H08/09
Friendly International
73.0Avg total
38.6Scored
34.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (21)36.635.071.6+1.648%-
Last 30 at home (9)38.336.474.8+1.944%-
Last 30 away (12)35.333.969.2+1.450%-
Last 10 (10)38.634.473.0+4.260%-
Last 5 (5)38.437.275.6+1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)30.038.368.3-8.30%-
vs Similar (4)37.538.075.5-0.525%-
vs Weaker ◀ (14)37.833.471.2+4.464%-
This opponent (Poland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PolandLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Germany
#3
L
35-36
35
36
-1
A19/08
DBB Supercup
Russia
#4
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H20/08
DBB Supercup
Hungary
#33
L
22-29
22
29
-7
H24/11
World Cup
Lithuania
#4
L
25-38
25
38
-13
A26/11
World Cup
Kosovo
#68
W
48-26
48
26
+22
H23/02
World Cup
Hungary
#33
D
32-32
32
32
+0
A26/02
World Cup
Lithuania
#4
L
25-36
25
36
-11
H28/06
World Cup
Kosovo
#68
W
57-34
57
34
+23
A01/07
World Cup
Israel
#41
W
46-39
46
39
+7
A07/09
Friendly International
Russia
#20
L
39-44
39
44
-5
A08/09
Friendly International
70.8Avg total
36.3Scored
34.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (17)35.637.072.6-1.429%-
Last 30 at home (7)33.734.067.7-0.343%-
Last 30 away (10)37.039.176.1-2.120%-
Last 10 (10)36.334.570.8+1.840%-
Last 5 (5)39.837.076.8+2.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)33.641.074.6-7.411%-
vs Similar (2)38.036.074.0+2.050%-
vs Weaker (6)38.031.369.3+6.750%-
This opponent (Italy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Italy wins
0
Poland wins
No previous meetings.
Italylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/09/18HGermany71-62
07/09/18HCzech Republic80-87
01/07/18ANetherlands66-81
28/06/18HCroatia72-78
26/02/18ARomania101-50
23/02/18HNetherlands80-62
26/11/17ACroatia80-64
24/11/17HRomania75-70
25/08/17AGeorgia73-65
24/08/17AGreece70-73 OT
Polandlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/09/18ARussia68-88
07/09/18AIsrael84-76
01/07/18AKosovo103-70
28/06/18HLithuania61-79
26/02/18AHungary57-64
23/02/18HKosovo90-62
26/11/17ALithuania55-75
24/11/17HHungary70-60
20/08/17HRussia81-78
19/08/17AGermany80-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Italy
World Cup 2019
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL67%
HomeWWL67%
AwayWWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %67%67%67%
Points / game79.075.782.3
Allowed / game67.570.065.0
Point differential+11.5+5.7+17.3
Avg total146.5145.7147.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%33%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Poland
World Cup 2019
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW50%
HomeWWL67%
AwayLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %50%67%33%
Points / game72.773.771.7
Allowed / game68.367.069.7
Point differential+4.3+6.7+2.0
Avg total141.0140.7141.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%67%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nigeria660100%100.864.5+36.3
2 Tunisia770100%80.652.1+28.4
3 Lithuania660100%85.358.7+26.7
4 Germany770100%84.965.3+19.6
5 Puerto Rico440100%90.877.8+13.0
6 Greece770100%83.370.7+12.6
7 Australia76186%88.662.1+26.4
8 New Zealand76186%98.072.1+25.9
9 Canada76186%97.374.3+23.0
10 Lebanon76186%89.069.4+19.6
11 Iran76186%76.460.6+15.9
12 France76186%78.164.4+13.7
13 Venezuela76186%74.963.0+11.9
14 Spain76186%80.372.4+7.9
15 Czech Republic76186%77.771.9+5.9
16 Senegal76186%74.168.4+5.7
17 Argentina65183%86.565.2+21.3
18 Jordan75271%92.976.9+16.0
19 Brazil75271%79.466.9+12.6
20 Dominican Republic75271%87.177.0+10.1
21 Turkey75271%73.765.4+8.3
22 South Korea75271%88.082.4+5.6
23 Latvia75271%80.375.3+5.0
24 Angola75271%64.963.6+1.3
25 Italy64267%79.067.5+11.5
26 Uruguay64267%72.073.7-1.7
27 Bulgaria117464%79.574.4+5.2
28 Serbia74357%82.474.1+8.3
29 Cameroon74357%73.466.3+7.1
30 Finland74357%76.975.7+1.1
31 Hungary74357%69.768.6+1.1
32 Ukraine74357%73.773.6+0.1
33 Philippines74357%77.680.4-2.9
34 Netherlands116555%76.868.5+8.3
35 Poland63350%72.768.3+4.3
36 Croatia63350%71.869.8+2.0
37 Mexico42250%76.575.5+1.0
38 Panama63350%72.774.2-1.5
39 Egypt63350%62.764.5-1.8
40 Armenia63350%78.380.3-2.0
41 Bosnia & Herzegovina136746%75.679.3-3.7
42 Estonia115645%68.873.7-4.9
43 China73443%84.472.3+12.1
44 Russia73443%76.672.6+4.0
45 Japan73443%79.176.3+2.9
46 Montenegro73443%74.774.6+0.1
47 Central African Republic73443%66.967.3-0.4
48 Morocco73443%61.762.7-1.0
49 Israel73443%74.077.6-3.6
50 Georgia73443%77.982.1-4.3
51 Kazakhstan73443%70.074.4-4.4
52 Mali73443%70.678.9-8.3
53 Rwanda73443%74.787.6-12.9
54 Sweden125742%72.875.6-2.8
55 D.R. Congo62433%67.867.7+0.2
56 Ivory Coast62433%60.861.5-0.7
57 Mozambique62433%58.062.8-4.8
58 Iraq62433%68.773.7-5.0
59 Iceland62433%77.282.7-5.5
60 Chad62433%63.870.7-6.8
61 Romania62433%61.377.8-16.5
62 Austria103730%72.078.2-6.2
63 Slovenia72529%79.782.4-2.7
64 United States Virgin Islands72529%83.196.4-13.3
65 Qatar72529%64.480.0-15.6
66 Syria72529%66.987.1-20.3
67 North Macedonia41325%74.075.0-1.0
68 Portugal41325%72.582.2-9.8
69 Belarus102820%73.983.0-9.1
70 Kosovo102820%65.586.3-20.8
71 Great Britain61517%73.376.2-2.8
72 Belgium61517%65.373.8-8.5
73 Slovakia61517%72.381.3-9.0
74 Uganda61517%77.790.0-12.3
75 Colombia61517%65.580.2-14.7
76 Bahamas61517%73.593.5-20.0
77 Chinese Taipei61517%71.092.0-21.0
78 Chile71614%60.775.3-14.6
79 Cuba4040%67.581.5-14.0
80 Paraguay6060%58.576.7-18.2
81 India6060%68.894.7-25.8
82 Guinea6060%56.089.3-33.3
83 Albania4040%57.094.5-37.5
84 Hong Kong6060%67.3110.2-42.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Italy25291928101
Poland2527131782
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