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Keilor Thunder vs Waverley Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 17 May 2025
Tip-off: 10:00
Final 75-70
25-16 14-30 19-14 17-10
Position#15
Record3-6
FormWLLWL
Points / game82.9
Allowed / game92.4
vs
Position#13
Record4-5
FormLLLWL
Points / game91.2
Allowed / game95.8
AustraliaNBL1 South
Other2025
Meetings · Keilor Thunder v Waverley
17 May 2025
KEIL75
WAVE70
28 Apr 2024
KEIL107
WAVE101
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Keilor Thunder winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Waverley winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Keilor ThunderAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Knox
#7
L
68-104
68
104
-36
A13/07
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#19
W
97-82
97
82
+15
A29/03
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#2
L
76-100
76
100
-24
H30/03
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
L
71-87
71
87
-16
A05/04
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#14
L
103-111
103
111
-8
A11/04
NBL1 South
Frankston
#12
W
87-84
87
84
+3
H13/04
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
L
88-95
88
95
-7
A25/04
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
L
53-98
53
98
-45
A26/04
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#11
W
102-100
102
100
+2
H03/05
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
69-75
69
75
-6
A10/05
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-23
16-25
12-28
17-28
26-11
21-24
16-24
34-23
15-28
19-24
20-27
22-21
22-29
12-19
15-17
22-22
24-22
26-31
25-30
28-28
23-19
14-18
31-22
19-25
27-22
33-22
19-21
9-30
13-22
19-24
8-22
13-30
18-37
28-15
26-23
30-25
19-19
16-25
21-9
13-22
175.0Avg total
81.4Scored
93.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)82.992.4175.3-9.633%
Season at home (3)88.394.7183.0-6.367%
Season away (6)80.291.3171.5-11.217%
Last 10 (10)81.493.6175.0-12.230%
Last 5 (5)79.890.4170.2-10.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)82.392.0174.3-9.736%
vs Similar ◀ (9)87.688.1175.7-0.667%
vs Weaker (7)88.089.7177.7-1.757%
This opponent (Waverley) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
WaverleyAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geelong
#11
L
74-102
74
102
-28
A12/07
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#11
W
98-83
98
83
+15
H29/03
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
104-88
104
88
+16
H05/04
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
79-110
79
110
-31
A08/04
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
W
96-88
96
88
+8
H11/04
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#2
L
73-105
73
105
-32
A25/04
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
L
87-90
87
90
-3
H27/04
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
L
90-100
90
100
-10
A03/05
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
W
104-103
104
103
+1
A10/05
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
L
90-95
90
95
-5
H11/05
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-31
23-36
19-16
18-19
31-18
31-20
20-24
16-21
28-15
28-20
26-19
22-34
18-26
15-30
30-29
16-25
22-18
25-18
28-32
21-20
16-17
16-30
23-27
18-31
22-25
24-20
18-25
23-20
23-31
21-27
22-23
24-19
25-21
29-34
25-27
25-21
27-27
26-27
18-25
19-16
185.9Avg total
89.5Scored
96.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)91.295.8187.0-4.644%
Season at home (5)95.088.8183.8+6.260%
Season away (4)86.5104.5191.0-18.025%
Last 10 (10)89.596.4185.9-6.940%
Last 5 (5)88.898.6187.4-9.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)82.997.0179.9-14.122%
vs Similar ◀ (9)93.390.8184.1+2.667%
vs Weaker (12)95.686.6182.2+9.058%
This opponent (Keilor Thunder) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -2.2-2.2Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: -2.4-2.4Q3Q3: -3.0-3.0Q3: -1.8-1.8Q4Q4: -4.7-4.7Q4: -2.4-2.4
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -2.2-2.2Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: -2.4-2.4Q3Q3: -3.0-3.0Q3: -1.8-1.8Q4Q4: -4.7-4.7Q4: -2.4-2.4
Keilor ThunderWaverley
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Keilor ThunderLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Knox
#7
L
39-48
39
48
-9
A13/07
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#19
W
47-35
47
35
+12
A29/03
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#2
L
34-52
34
52
-18
H30/03
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A05/04
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#14
L
50-53
50
53
-3
A11/04
NBL1 South
Frankston
#12
D
37-37
37
37
+0
H13/04
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
W
60-44
60
44
+16
A25/04
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
L
32-46
32
46
-14
A26/04
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#11
L
46-52
46
52
-6
H03/05
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A10/05
NBL1 South
87.3Avg total
41.4Scored
45.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.145.387.3-3.233%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.945.786.6-4.829%-
Last 30 away (16)43.144.987.9-1.838%-
Last 10 (10)41.445.987.3-4.520%-
Last 5 (5)42.044.686.6-2.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)40.746.987.6-6.129%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)42.945.388.2-2.433%-
vs Weaker (7)43.742.085.7+1.743%-
This opponent (Waverley) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
WaverleyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geelong
#11
L
37-67
37
67
-30
A12/07
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#11
W
62-38
62
38
+24
H29/03
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
56-35
56
35
+21
H05/04
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
33-56
33
56
-23
A08/04
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
W
47-36
47
36
+11
H11/04
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#2
L
32-47
32
47
-15
A25/04
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
46-45
46
45
+1
H27/04
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
L
44-58
44
58
-14
A03/05
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
54-55
54
55
-1
A10/05
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
L
53-54
53
54
-1
H11/05
NBL1 South
95.5Avg total
46.4Scored
49.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.446.793.1-0.353%-
Last 30 at home (16)47.543.991.4+3.662%-
Last 30 away (14)45.149.995.1-4.843%-
Last 10 (10)46.449.195.5-2.740%-
Last 5 (5)45.851.897.6-6.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)42.149.291.3-7.111%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)49.247.096.2+2.278%-
vs Weaker (12)47.544.692.1+2.967%-
This opponent (Keilor Thunder) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Keilor Thunder wins
1
Waverley wins
DateGameScore
28/04/24Keilor Thunder v Waverley107-101
28/05/23Waverley v Keilor Thunder77-92
29/05/22Waverley v Keilor Thunder77-74
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/05/25AKnox69-75
03/05/25HNunawading102-100
26/04/25ANW Tasmania53-98
25/04/25AHobart Chargers88-95
13/04/25HFrankston87-84
11/04/25ADandenong103-111
05/04/25ABendigo Braves71-87
30/03/25HMt Gambier76-100
29/03/25ADiamond Valley97-82
13/07/24AKnox68-104
Waverleylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/05/25HCasey Cavaliers90-95
10/05/25ASandringham Sabres104-103
03/05/25ABallarat90-100
27/04/25HBendigo Braves87-90
25/04/25AMt Gambier73-105
11/04/25HGeelong96-88
08/04/25AKnox79-110
05/04/25HNW Tasmania104-88
29/03/25HNunawading98-83
12/07/24AGeelong74-102

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Keilor Thunder
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL33%
HomeLWW67%
AwayLLLLL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games936
Win %33%67%17%
Points / game82.988.380.2
Allowed / game92.494.791.3
Point differential-9.6-6.3-11.2
Avg total175.3183.0171.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%0%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Waverley
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL44%
HomeWWWLL60%
AwayLLLW25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %44%60%25%
Points / game91.295.086.5
Allowed / game95.888.8104.5
Point differential-4.6+6.2-18.0
Avg total187.0183.8191.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%40%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Knox109190%91.276.5+14.7
2 Frankston86275%93.485.2+8.1
3 Mt Gambier96367%94.784.0+10.7
4 Casey Cavaliers96367%87.181.7+5.4
5 Nunawading106460%87.088.2-1.2
6 Ballarat106460%87.791.5-3.8
7 Bendigo Braves106460%89.093.0-4.0
8 Melbourne Tigers95456%86.378.4+7.9
9 Kilsyth95456%83.382.1+1.2
10 Hobart Chargers105550%84.282.9+1.3
11 Eltham94544%86.387.4-1.1
12 Waverley94544%91.295.8-4.6
13 Geelong94544%81.686.7-5.1
14 Ringwood93633%93.188.6+4.6
15 NW Tasmania93633%85.684.2+1.3
16 Diamond Valley93633%85.294.4-9.2
17 Keilor Thunder93633%82.992.4-9.6
18 Sandringham Sabres103730%85.391.7-6.4
19 Dandenong91811%85.294.7-9.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Keilor Thunder2514191775
Waverley1630141070
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