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Krosno vs Inowroclaw Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 14:00
Projected 85-80
Projected total 165.1
Final 78-84
16-17 25-25 20-20 17-22
Position#14
Record2-6
FormLLLWL
Points / game84.4
Allowed / game88.1
Krosno
Poland
Vs
66%
34%
■ KROS 66%■ INOW 34%
Pythia win probability
Inowroclaw 🏆
Poland
Position#4
Record5-3
FormWLWLW
Points / game79.8
Allowed / game78.4
Poland1 LigaRound 9· Hala Sportowo-Widowiskowa
Other2026-27
Meetings · Krosno v Inowroclaw
14 Nov 2026
KROS78
INOW84
13 Apr 2025
KROS92
INOW66
12 Apr 2025
KROS77
INOW52
29 Dec 2024
KROS89
INOW67
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Krosno host Inowroclaw in the 1 Liga on 14 November 2026, with the model favouring the home side at 66% to 34% and projecting an 85-80 victory for Krosno. Krosno have struggled this season, 2-6 overall, averaging 84.4 points and conceding 88.1, and 1-2 at home with 87.3 points for and 85.7 against; their last five games yielded only one win, including a 92-73 home triumph over Lancut and a 78-95 loss to Kotwica Kolobrzeg on 5 November. Inowroclaw, meanwhile, are 5-3 overall, 79.8 points scored and 78.4 allowed, and 1-3 on the road with 79.8 points for and 83.8 against; they have won three of their last five, notably a 80-76 home win over Poli. Opolska on 8 November and a 79-74 win over Bytom on 24 October. In the five meetings between the clubs, Krosno have won all, most recently 75-69 on 16 April 2025. The model sets a -3.0 line for Krosno with a 57% chance to cover and an over probability of 5% for the 165.1 total, ending the preview with the projected score of 85-80.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Krosno winLost
65.8%fair 1.52
Best odds1.62
Implied58.0%
Edge+7.8pp
Inowroclaw winWon
34.2%fair 2.92
Best odds2.25
Implied42.0%
Edge-7.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:45 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

KrosnoPolandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormKrosno
Date
Competition
Szczecin
#2
L
85-88
85
88
-3
76avg 75
A02/05
Energa Basket Liga
Slask Wroclaw
#3
L
66-88
66
88
-22
56avg 75
H06/05
Energa Basket Liga
Bytom
#12
L
85-91 OT
85
91
-6
75avg 75
A19/09
1 Liga
Poznan
#5
L
98-107
98
107
-9
93avg 75
H26/09
1 Liga
Poli. Opolska
#16
W
97-89
97
89
+8
94avg 75
A04/10
1 Liga
Pelplin
#7
L
80-91
80
91
-11
71avg 75
A09/10
1 Liga
Spojnia Stargard
#2
L
72-77
72
77
-5
67avg 75
H18/10
1 Liga
LKS Lodz
#3
L
73-82
73
82
-9
64avg 75
A24/10
1 Liga
Lancut
#9
W
92-73
92
73
+19
90avg 75
H31/10
1 Liga
Kotwica Kolobrzeg
#11
L
78-95
78
95
-17
no box
A05/11
1 Liga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-27
21-18
30-15
17-28
16-24
19-21
17-19
14-24
17-17
27-18
19-29
14-13
20-28
25-19
21-38
32-22
23-31
28-15
21-15
25-28
23-23
16-23
27-15
14-30
22-13
16-20
18-23
16-21
21-16
25-20
7-22
20-24
25-24
24-21
24-15
19-13
18-31
20-20
13-20
27-24
170.7Avg total
82.6Scored
88.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)84.488.1172.5-3.825%
Season at home (3)87.385.7173.0+1.733%
Season away (5)82.689.6172.2-7.020%
Last 10 (10)82.688.1170.7-5.520%
Last 5 (5)79.083.6162.6-4.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)80.890.8171.6-9.98%
vs Similar (4)87.089.0176.0-2.050%
vs Weaker (1)97.089.0186.0+8.0100%
This opponent (Inowroclaw) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
InowroclawPolandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormInowroclaw
Date
Competition
WKK Wroclaw
#10
L
68-79
68
79
-11
54avg 73
A08/04
1 Liga
Spojnia Stargard
#4
L
67-81
67
81
-14
59avg 73
A15/04
1 Liga
WKK Wroclaw
#6
W
80-66
80
66
+14
71avg 73
A18/09
1 Liga
R. Rzeszow
#13
W
75-62
75
62
+13
66avg 73
H26/09
1 Liga
Polonia Warszawa
#8
L
87-90
87
90
-3
75avg 73
A04/10
1 Liga
Starogard Gdanski
#15
W
85-80
85
80
+5
80avg 73
H11/10
1 Liga
GKS Tychy
#10
L
77-96
77
96
-19
64avg 73
A17/10
1 Liga
Bytom
#12
W
79-74 OT
79
74
+5
68avg 73
H24/10
1 Liga
Poznan
#5
L
75-83
75
83
-8
60avg 73
A31/10
1 Liga
Poli. Opolska
#16
W
80-76
80
76
+4
no box
H08/11
1 Liga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
11-15
20-29
14-15
23-20
20-13
12-20
20-19
15-29
15-13
20-19
20-15
25-19
16-19
20-12
18-18
21-13
12-17
25-23
25-29
25-21
22-27
24-18
20-11
19-24
20-20
27-21
13-32
17-23
21-13
20-26
16-15
13-16
16-24
14-13
15-25
30-21
21-23
25-16
10-19
24-18
156.0Avg total
77.3Scored
78.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)79.878.4158.1+1.462%
Season at home (4)79.873.0152.8+6.8100%
Season away (4)79.883.8163.5-4.025%
Last 10 (10)77.378.7156.0-1.450%
Last 5 (5)79.281.8161.0-2.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)80.486.0166.4-5.640%
vs Similar (14)78.977.9156.8+1.143%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)81.077.2158.2+3.867%
This opponent (Krosno) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 158.5Actual: Over 158.5
Over 158.5
64.8%
Under 158.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 163.75 · main lineActual: Under 163.75
Over 163.75
no forecast
@ 1.78
Under 163.75
no forecast
@ 1.78
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.78
Under
1xBet
1.78
Over/Under 168.5Actual: Under 168.5
Over 168.5
41.1%
Under 168.5
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Krosno total 78.5Actual: Krosno under 78.5
Over 78.5
73.2%
@ 1.36+8.8pp
Under 78.5
26.8%
@ 2.46-8.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.36
Under
1xBet
2.46
Krosno total 82.5 · main lineActual: Krosno under 82.5
Over 82.5
59.0%
@ 1.85+8.4pp
Under 82.5
41.0%
@ 1.86-8.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.68
Under
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.76
Krosno total 86.5Actual: Krosno under 86.5
Over 86.5
43.5%
@ 2.30+5.5pp
Under 86.5
56.5%
@ 1.41-5.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.30
Under
1xBet
1.41
Inowroclaw total 75.5Actual: Inowroclaw over 75.5
Over 75.5
67.3%
@ 1.33+1.0pp
Under 75.5
32.7%
@ 2.62-1.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.33
Under
1xBet
2.62
Inowroclaw total 79.5 · main lineActual: Inowroclaw over 79.5
Over 79.5
52.4%
@ 1.83+0.7pp
Under 79.5
47.6%
@ 1.85-0.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.62
Under
1xBet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Inowroclaw total 83.5Actual: Inowroclaw over 83.5
Over 83.5
37.3%
@ 2.17-2.8pp
Under 83.5
62.7%
@ 1.45+2.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.17
Under
1xBet
1.45

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Krosno -6Actual: Inowroclaw +6
KROS -6
45.6%
INOW +6
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
KROS
No market prices yet.
INOW
No market prices yet.
Spread Krosno -3 · main lineActual: Inowroclaw +3
KROS -3
57.3%
@ 1.86+7.1pp
INOW +3
42.7%
@ 1.88-7.1pp
Best 5 market prices
KROS
Pinnacle
1.86
SBO
1.83
INOW
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.83
Spread Krosno 0Actual: Inowroclaw 0
KROS 0
65.8%
INOW 0
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
KROS
No market prices yet.
INOW
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -3.2-3.2Q1: -1.0-1.0Q2Q2: +2.6+2.6Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: -1.4-1.4Q3: -2.7-2.7Q4Q4: -2.9-2.9Q4: +0.8+0.8
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -3.2-3.2Q1: -1.0-1.0Q2Q2: +2.6+2.6Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: -1.4-1.4Q3: -2.7-2.7Q4Q4: -2.9-2.9Q4: +0.8+0.8
KrosnoInowroclaw
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
KrosnoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Szczecin
#2
L
38-45
38
45
-7
A02/05
Energa Basket Liga
Slask Wroclaw
#3
L
35-45
35
45
-10
H06/05
Energa Basket Liga
Bytom
#12
W
44-35
44
35
+9
A19/09
1 Liga
Poznan
#5
L
45-47
45
47
-2
H26/09
1 Liga
Poli. Opolska
#16
W
51-46
51
46
+5
A04/10
1 Liga
Pelplin
#7
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A09/10
1 Liga
Spojnia Stargard
#2
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H18/10
1 Liga
LKS Lodz
#3
W
46-36
46
36
+10
A24/10
1 Liga
Lancut
#9
W
49-45
49
45
+4
H31/10
1 Liga
Kotwica Kolobrzeg
#11
L
38-51
38
51
-13
A05/11
1 Liga
85.2Avg total
42.3Scored
42.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 80.5
Last 30 (30)41.944.186.0-2.237%70%
Last 30 at home (13)41.443.584.8-2.146%62%
Last 30 away (17)42.244.686.8-2.429%76%
Last 10 (10)42.342.985.2-0.650%70%
Last 5 (5)42.042.284.2-0.260%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)40.744.885.5-4.128%68%
vs Similar (4)47.039.286.2+7.875%75%
vs Weaker (1)51.046.097.0+5.0100%100%
This opponent (Inowroclaw) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
InowroclawLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
WKK Wroclaw
#10
L
31-44
31
44
-13
A08/04
1 Liga
Spojnia Stargard
#4
L
32-33
32
33
-1
A15/04
1 Liga
WKK Wroclaw
#6
W
35-32
35
32
+3
A18/09
1 Liga
R. Rzeszow
#13
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H26/09
1 Liga
Polonia Warszawa
#8
L
37-40
37
40
-3
A04/10
1 Liga
Starogard Gdanski
#15
W
46-45
46
45
+1
H11/10
1 Liga
GKS Tychy
#10
W
47-41
47
41
+6
A17/10
1 Liga
Bytom
#12
W
41-39
41
39
+2
H24/10
1 Liga
Poznan
#5
L
30-37
30
37
-7
A31/10
1 Liga
Poli. Opolska
#16
W
46-39
46
39
+7
H08/11
1 Liga
76.2Avg total
38.1Scored
38.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 80.5
Last 30 (30)40.039.779.7+0.350%40%
Last 30 at home (15)42.640.082.6+2.667%47%
Last 30 away (15)37.339.476.7-2.133%33%
Last 10 (10)38.138.176.2+0.060%30%
Last 5 (5)42.040.282.2+1.880%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)37.741.679.3-3.930%30%
vs Similar (14)41.138.279.4+2.957%43%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)41.040.081.0+1.067%50%
This opponent (Krosno) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Inowroclaw win
KROS win
no forecast
@ 1.68
INOW win
no forecast
@ 2.20
1st half Spread Krosno -1.5 · main lineActual: Inowroclaw +1.5
KROS -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
INOW +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 80.5 · main lineActual: Over 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 2.00
Krosno 1st half total 40.5 · main lineActual: Krosno over 40.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
Inowroclaw 1st half total 39.5 · main lineActual: Inowroclaw over 39.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half: KROS + total 80.5
KROS & over
no forecast
@ 3.30
KROS & under
no forecast
@ 3.30
1st half: Draw + total 80.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 29.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 29.00
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Inowroclaw (regulation)
KROS
no forecast
@ 1.72
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.50
INOW
no forecast
@ 2.22

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
KROS win + total 162.5
🔒 Pro
INOW win + total 162.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: KROS leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: INOW leads at half
🔒 Pro
Team with the highest-scoring quarter
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Krosno over 77.576.3%1.31
1xBet
1.31		----+8.9ppWon
Krosno over 78.573.2%1.36
1xBet
1.36		----+8.8ppLost
Krosno +2.572.0%1.36
1xBet
1.36		----+6.9ppLost
Krosno +3.574.6%1.30
1xBet
1.30		----+6.2ppLost
Overtime: no95.0%1.03
Betano
1.03		----+3.8ppWon
Inowroclaw under 86.572.9%1.28
1xBet
1.28		----+3.7ppWon
Inowroclaw over 74.570.8%1.28
1xBet
1.28		----+1.3ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Krosnotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Krosno: 83.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.6 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.2 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.4 points a game
50%
31%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.219.3
56.4%
53.9%38.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.610.2
33.3%
33.5%30.6
🏀 Free throws19.614.2
72.4%
70.8%14.2
They take 64.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Inowroclawtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Inowroclaw: 77.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.0 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.3 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.9 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.4 points a game
50%
31%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.919.0
48.8%
53.9%38.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.98.1
31.3%
33.5%24.3
🏀 Free throws23.214.9
64.2%
70.8%14.9
They take 64.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Krosno
LWLLLWLLLL
Inowroclaw
WLWLWLWWLL
#14
League position
#4
-5.2
Net rating
-1.0
96.2
Offensive rating
87.9
101.4
Defensive rating
89.0
53.4%
Effective FG%
48.1%
56.2%
Opp. effective FG%
50.6%
16.5%
Turnover %
14.5%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.36
33.3%
3-point %
31.3%
58.6%
Assist %
60.5%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence96.2 · 87.9Defence101.4 · 89.0Shooting53.4% · 48.1%3-point %33.3% · 31.3%Ball care16.5% · 14.5%Free throws0.30 · 0.36Form (last 10/10)20% · 50%
■ Krosno   ■ Inowroclaw
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Krosno wins
0
Inowroclaw wins
DateGameScore
16/04/25Inowroclaw v Krosno69-75
13/04/25Krosno v Inowroclaw92-66
12/04/25Krosno v Inowroclaw77-52
05/04/25Inowroclaw v Krosno68-85
29/12/24Krosno v Inowroclaw89-67
Krosnolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/11/26AKotwica Kolobrzeg78-95
31/10/26HLancut92-73
24/10/26ALKS Lodz73-82
18/10/26HSpojnia Stargard72-77
09/10/26APelplin80-91
04/10/26APoli. Opolska97-89
26/09/26HPoznan98-107
19/09/26ABytom85-91 OT
06/05/26HSlask Wroclaw66-88
02/05/26ASzczecin85-88
Inowroclawlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26HPoli. Opolska80-76
31/10/26APoznan75-83
24/10/26HBytom79-74 OT
17/10/26AGKS Tychy77-96
11/10/26HStarogard Gdanski85-80
04/10/26APolonia Warszawa87-90
26/09/26HR. Rzeszow75-62
18/09/26AWKK Wroclaw80-66
15/04/26ASpojnia Stargard67-81
08/04/26AWKK Wroclaw68-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Krosno
1 Liga 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL25%
HomeLLW33%
AwayLWLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games835
Win %25%33%20%
Points / game84.487.382.6
Allowed / game88.185.789.6
Point differential-3.8+1.7-7.0
Avg total172.5173.0172.2
Over 163.7575%67%80%
Win by 10+12%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %12%0%20%
Inowroclaw
1 Liga 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW62%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayWLLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %62%100%25%
Points / game79.879.879.8
Allowed / game78.473.083.8
Point differential+1.4+6.8-4.0
Avg total158.1152.8163.5
Over 163.7538%25%50%
Win by 10+25%25%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (3)0% (1)
Overtime %12%25%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Leszno880100%92.075.4+16.6
2 LKS Lodz86275%89.279.9+9.4
3 Spojnia Stargard86275%91.486.8+4.6
4 Poznan85362%91.087.1+3.9
5 WKK Wroclaw85362%83.881.5+2.2
6 Inowroclaw85362%79.878.4+1.4
7 Polonia Warszawa85362%91.092.0-1.0
8 Lancut84450%87.084.4+2.6
9 Kotwica Kolobrzeg84450%90.589.6+0.9
10 Pelplin84450%90.992.5-1.6
11 GKS Tychy83538%77.480.8-3.4
12 Krosno82625%84.488.1-3.8
13 Bytom82625%81.686.4-4.8
14 Starogard Gdanski82625%86.092.0-6.0
15 R. Rzeszow82625%78.287.9-9.6
16 Poli. Opolska81712%80.992.4-11.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Krosno1625201778
Inowroclaw1725202284
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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