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Larranaga vs Atenas Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 02 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 22:15
Projected 83-81
Projected total 163.8
Final 109-73
24-15 32-19 27-23 26-16
Position#7
Record1-3
FormLLWL
Points / game78.5
Allowed / game88.2
Larranaga 🏆
Uruguay
Vs
56%
44%
■ LARR 56%■ ATEN 44%
Pythia win probability
Atenas
Uruguay
Position#12
Record1-3
FormLWWLW
Points / game70.5
Allowed / game81.0
UruguayLiga Uruguaya
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Larranaga faces Atenas in the Liga Uruguaya on 2 November 2026, with the Pythia model designating Larranaga as the favourite and predicting a close contest. Both clubs sit at 1-3 for the season, each averaging 78.5 points and conceding 88.2, while Atenas averages 70.5 points and allows 81.0, placing them 12th and Larranaga 11th respectively; Larranaga's home record is 1-1 with 84.5 points for and 84.5 against, and Atenas' road record is 1-1 with 74.0 points for and 75.0 against. In the last five outings Larranaga won once and lost three, whereas Atenas secured three wins and two losses. Recent results include Larranaga's 91-75 home victory over Aguada on 27 October and a 71-90 away loss to Urunday on 30 October, while Atenas edged Racing de Chivilcoy 95-94 at home on 1 November and fell 57-84 to Aguada on 30 October. Pythia assigns a 56% chance to Larranaga and 44% to Atenas, projecting an 83-81 score for a total of 163.8 points, with a 5% likelihood of overtime. The game will test whether Larranaga can sustain its narrow home advantage.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Larranaga winWon
56.5%fair 1.77
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Atenas winLost
43.5%fair 2.30
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 02 Nov 07:08 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LarranagaUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLarranaga
Date
Competition
Union Atletica
#11
L
78-94
78
94
-16
69avg 69
H21/10
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#3
L
74-94
74
94
-20
55avg 69
A23/10
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#5
W
91-75
91
75
+16
92avg 69
H28/10
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#10
L
71-90
71
90
-19
60avg 69
A30/10
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-25
15-18
26-19
15-32
13-18
9-30
28-26
24-20
26-24
18-23
25-16
22-12
13-24
25-16
15-24
18-26
166.8Avg total
78.5Scored
88.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)78.588.2166.8-9.825%
Season at home (2)84.584.5169.0+0.050%
Season away (2)72.592.0164.5-19.50%
Last 10 (4)78.588.2166.8-9.825%
Last 5 (4)78.588.2166.8-9.825%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)74.094.0168.0-20.00%
vs Similar (2)81.082.5163.5-1.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (1)78.094.0172.0-16.00%
This opponent (Atenas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AtenasUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAtenas
Date
Competition
Argentino
#19
L
77-88
77
88
-11
69avg 70
A13/05
Liga A
Quimsa
#1
L
77-83
77
83
-6
68avg 70
A06/10
Liga A
Olimpico
#6
W
91-87
91
87
+4
87avg 70
A08/10
Liga A
Ferro
#14
W
91-86
91
86
+5
87avg 70
H13/10
Liga A
Malvin
#6
L
66-77
66
77
-11
55avg 70
A20/10
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#8
L
77-90
77
90
-13
61avg 70
H22/10
Liga Uruguaya
Lanus
#13
W
80-69
80
69
+11
76avg 70
H24/10
Liga A
Union Atletica
#11
W
82-73
82
73
+9
68avg 70
A26/10
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#5
L
57-84
57
84
-27
42avg 70
H31/10
Liga Uruguaya
Racing de Chivilcoy
#12
W
95-94 OT
95
94
+1
no box
H02/11
Liga A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-17
20-26
14-21
18-24
21-16
23-27
13-23
20-17
21-17
17-24
29-25
24-21
16-20
24-28
24-18
27-20
8-20
19-24
19-15
20-18
23-24
18-25
11-24
25-17
25-20
8-19
27-16
20-14
28-17
25-20
19-12
10-24
12-27
19-21
9-11
17-25
22-22
20-25
21-14
25-27
162.4Avg total
79.3Scored
83.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)70.581.0151.5-10.525%
Season at home (2)67.087.0154.0-20.00%
Season away (2)74.075.0149.0-1.050%
Last 10 (10)79.383.1162.4-3.850%
Last 5 (5)78.282.0160.2-3.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)78.885.7164.4-6.925%
vs Similar (6)79.579.8159.3-0.367%
vs Weaker (8)84.980.8165.6+4.162%
This opponent (Larranaga) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 162.5Actual: Over 162.5
Over 162.5
52.3%
Under 162.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 167.5Actual: Over 167.5
Over 167.5
40.4%
Under 167.5
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 172.5Actual: Over 172.5
Over 172.5
29.4%
Under 172.5
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Larranaga total 81.5Actual: Larranaga over 81.5
Over 81.5
54.9%
Under 81.5
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larranaga total 85.5Actual: Larranaga over 85.5
Over 85.5
39.6%
Under 85.5
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larranaga total 89.5Actual: Larranaga over 89.5
Over 89.5
25.7%
Under 89.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atenas total 78Actual: Atenas under 78
Over 78
61.4%
Under 78
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atenas total 82Actual: Atenas under 82
Over 82
45.5%
Under 82
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atenas total 86Actual: Atenas under 86
Over 86
30.5%
Under 86
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Larranaga -3Actual: Larranaga -3
LARR -3
47.4%
ATEN +3
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
LARR
No market prices yet.
ATEN
No market prices yet.
Spread Larranaga 0Actual: Larranaga 0
LARR 0
56.5%
ATEN 0
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
LARR
No market prices yet.
ATEN
No market prices yet.
Spread Larranaga +3Actual: Larranaga +3
LARR +3
65.4%
ATEN -3
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
LARR
No market prices yet.
ATEN
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -4.2-4.2Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: -5.0-5.0Q2: -4.6-4.6Q3Q3: +2.2+2.2Q3: +0.7+0.7Q4Q4: -2.8-2.8Q4: -0.1-0.1
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -4.2-4.2Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: -5.0-5.0Q2: -4.6-4.6Q3Q3: +2.2+2.2Q3: +0.7+0.7Q4Q4: -2.8-2.8Q4: -0.1-0.1
LarranagaAtenas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
LarranagaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Union Atletica
#11
L
37-43
37
43
-6
H21/10
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#3
L
22-48
22
48
-26
A23/10
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#5
L
44-47
44
47
-3
H28/10
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#10
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A30/10
Liga Uruguaya
79.8Avg total
35.2Scored
44.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (4)35.244.579.8-9.20%-
Last 30 at home (2)40.545.085.5-4.50%-
Last 30 away (2)30.044.074.0-14.00%-
Last 10 (4)35.244.579.8-9.20%-
Last 5 (4)35.244.579.8-9.20%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)22.048.070.0-26.00%-
vs Similar (2)41.043.584.5-2.50%-
vs Weaker ◀ (1)37.043.080.0-6.00%-
This opponent (Atenas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AtenasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Argentino
#19
W
45-43
45
43
+2
A13/05
Liga A
Quimsa
#1
W
44-43
44
43
+1
A06/10
Liga A
Olimpico
#6
L
38-41
38
41
-3
A08/10
Liga A
Ferro
#14
L
40-48
40
48
-8
H13/10
Liga A
Malvin
#6
L
27-44
27
44
-17
A20/10
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#8
L
41-49
41
49
-8
H22/10
Liga Uruguaya
Lanus
#13
L
33-39
33
39
-6
H24/10
Liga A
Union Atletica
#11
W
53-37
53
37
+16
A26/10
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#5
L
31-48
31
48
-17
H31/10
Liga Uruguaya
Racing de Chivilcoy
#12
L
42-47
42
47
-5
H02/11
Liga A
83.3Avg total
39.4Scored
43.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.941.382.2-0.443%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.640.981.5-0.333%-
Last 30 away (15)41.341.782.9-0.453%-
Last 10 (10)39.443.983.3-4.530%-
Last 5 (5)40.044.084.0-4.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)40.843.183.9-2.338%-
vs Similar (6)40.736.577.2+4.250%-
vs Weaker (8)41.441.282.6+0.150%-
This opponent (Larranaga) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Larranagatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Larranaga: 77.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.5 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.2 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.0 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.2 points a game
52%
31%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.820.2
53.6%
50.3%40.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.58.8
31.8%
32.1%26.2
🏀 Free throws19.511.0
56.4%
70.5%11.0
They take 65.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Atenastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Atenas: 74.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.1 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.4 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.2 points a game
52%
31%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.220.6
52.6%
50.3%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.87.7
29.8%
32.1%23.1
🏀 Free throws14.810.4
70.3%
70.5%10.4
They take 65.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 4/10 games with a box score before 02 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Larranaga
LWLL
Atenas
WLWWLLWWLL
#7
League position
#12
-11.4
Net rating
-5.8
84.7
Offensive rating
94.9
96.2
Defensive rating
100.8
51.1%
Effective FG%
49.5%
50.2%
Opp. effective FG%
48.7%
17.4%
Turnover %
6.3%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.23
31.8%
3-point %
29.8%
63.8%
Assist %
43.8%
25%
Form (last 4/10)
50%

Profile

Offence84.7 · 94.9Defence96.2 · 100.8Shooting51.1% · 49.5%3-point %31.8% · 29.8%Ball care17.4% · 6.3%Free throws0.30 · 0.23Form (last 4/10)25% · 50%
■ Larranaga   ■ Atenas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Larranaga wins
0
Atenas wins
No previous meetings.
Larranagalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/10/26AUrunday71-90
28/10/26HAguada91-75
23/10/26ABigua74-94
21/10/26HUnion Atletica78-94
Atenaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/11/26HRacing de Chivilcoy95-94 OT
31/10/26HAguada57-84
26/10/26AUnion Atletica82-73
24/10/26HLanus80-69
22/10/26HNacional77-90
20/10/26AMalvin66-77
13/10/26HFerro91-86
08/10/26AOlimpico91-87
06/10/26AQuimsa77-83
13/05/26AArgentino77-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Larranaga
Liga Uruguaya 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Losses (last 4)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWL25%
HomeLW50%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %25%50%0%
Points / game78.584.572.5
Allowed / game88.284.592.0
Point differential-9.8+0.0-19.5
Avg total166.8169.0164.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Atenas
Liga Uruguaya 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWL25%
HomeLL0%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %25%0%50%
Points / game70.567.074.0
Allowed / game81.087.075.0
Point differential-10.5-20.0-1.0
Avg total151.5154.0149.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Penarol220100%96.077.5+18.5
2 Bigua440100%93.583.2+10.2
3 Goes43175%93.886.8+7.0
4 Aguada43175%77.073.0+4.0
5 Defensor21150%82.576.5+6.0
6 Malvin42250%77.083.8-6.8
7 Nacional31233%93.794.7-1.0
8 Hebraica y Macabi31233%81.384.3-3.0
9 Urunday41325%84.285.2-1.0
10 Union Atletica41325%78.280.8-2.5
11 Larranaga41325%78.588.2-9.8
12 Atenas41325%70.581.0-10.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Larranaga24322726109
Atenas1519231673
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