Long Beach State faces Pacific on 11 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring the Long Beach State squad at 62% versus 38% for Pacific; the projected score is 73-69 and the total is 142.0. Long Beach State, 0-2 this season, averages 66.5 points scored and 74.5 allowed per game, sits 331st in the league, and has won 2 of its last 5 games, with recent outings including a 70-83 loss to Montana State and a 63-66 defeat by Utah Utes, while Pacific, 2-0, averages 82.5 points scored and 49.5 allowed, is 20th in the standings, has won 3 of its last 5 games and has beaten Bradley 63-52 and Bethesda 102-47, but fell 68-76 to Santa Clara. In the two meetings Pacific has won both, the most recent being a 69-66 victory in 2025. The home line is 6.0 with an 80% chance of covering, the over line is 138.5 with a 58% probability, and there is a 5% chance of overtime. The game will be decided by the 4-point margin that the model expects Long Beach State to hold.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Long Beach State winWon
62.3%fair 1.61
Best odds3.15
Implied31.7%
Edge+30.6pp
Pacific winLost
37.7%fair 2.65
Best odds1.41
Implied68.3%
Edge-30.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Long Beach State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 133Actual: Under 133
Over 133
70.8%
@ 1.50+8.3pp
Under 133
29.2%
@ 2.50-8.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Over/Under 138 · main lineActual: Under 138
Over 138
59.3%
@ 1.98+9.3pp
Under 138
40.7%
@ 1.91-9.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.98
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.86
SBO
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.86
SBO
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 143Actual: Under 143
Over 143
46.9%
@ 2.70+12.6pp
Under 143
53.1%
@ 1.41-12.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.70
Under
Bet365
1.41
📊 3. Team Totals
Long Beach State total 61.5Actual: Long Beach State over 61.5
Over 61.5
no forecast
@ 1.34
Under 61.5
no forecast
@ 2.80
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Under
Betano
2.80
Long Beach State total 66 · main lineActual: Long Beach State under 66
Over 66
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under 66
no forecast
@ 1.86
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Long Beach State total 69.5Actual: Long Beach State under 69.5
Over 69.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under 69.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.40
Under
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.45
Pacific total 67.5Actual: Pacific under 67.5
Over 67.5
56.4%
@ 1.35-10.7pp
Under 67.5
43.6%
@ 2.75+10.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Under
Betano
2.75
Pacific total 71.5 · main lineActual: Pacific under 71.5
Over 71.5
41.0%
@ 1.89-9.0pp
Under 71.5
59.0%
@ 1.95+9.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Under
Betano
1.95
BetVictor
1.95
1xBet
1.94
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
Pacific total 75.5Actual: Pacific under 75.5
Over 75.5
27.0%
@ 2.62-9.2pp
Under 75.5
73.0%
@ 1.44+9.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.62
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.44
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Long Beach State +3Actual: Long Beach State +3
LONG +3
70.8%
@ 2.40+31.7pp
PACI -3
29.2%
@ 1.54-31.7pp
Best 5 market prices
LONG
Bet365
2.40
PACI
Bet365
1.54
Spread Long Beach State +6 · main lineActual: Long Beach State +6
LONG +6
79.7%
@ 1.89+28.8pp
PACI -6
20.3%
@ 1.96-28.8pp
Best 5 market prices
LONG
Bet365
1.89
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.83
SBO
1.75
PACI
SBO
1.96
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathon Be
1.88
Bet365
1.86
Spread Long Beach State +9Actual: Long Beach State +9
LONG +9
86.5%
@ 1.54+26.1pp
PACI -9
13.5%
@ 2.35-26.1pp
Best 5 market prices
LONG
Bet365
1.54
PACI
Bet365
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Long Beach StatePacific
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Long Beach State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Long Beach State win
LONG win
no forecast
@ 2.40
PACI win
no forecast
@ 1.57
2nd half Spread Long Beach State +2.5 · main lineActual: Long Beach State +2.5
LONG +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
PACI -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half Over/Under 71.5 · main lineActual: Under 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Long Beach State (regulation)
LONG
no forecast
@ 2.45
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.00
PACI
no forecast
@ 1.62
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Long Beach State +3
70.8%
2.40
Bet365
2.40
-
-
-
-
+31.7pp
Won
Long Beach State +4
73.9%
2.21
Pinnacle
2.26
Bet365
2.15
-
-
-
+31.6pp
Won
Long Beach State +5
77.0%
1.99
Pinnacle
2.08
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.88
-
-
+30.9pp
Won
Long Beach State +4.5
74.8%
2.09
Pinnacle
2.17
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.00
-
+30.7pp
Won
Long Beach State +3.5
71.7%
2.19
Betano
2.22
Bet365
2.22
1xBet
2.12
-
-
+29.8pp
Won
Long Beach State +5.5
77.6%
1.89
Pinnacle
1.98
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
1xBet
1.83
+29.2pp
Won
Long Beach State +6
79.7%
1.84
Bet365
1.89
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Bet
1.83
SBO
1.75
-
+28.8pp
Won
Long Beach State +6.5
80.3%
1.79
Bet365
1.85
SBO
1.81
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathon Bet
1.78
+26.8pp
Won
Long Beach State +7
82.2%
1.73
SBO
1.78
Bet365
1.74
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.70
-
+26.6pp
Won
Long Beach State +9
86.5%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
-
+26.1pp
Won
Long Beach State +8.5
84.8%
1.56
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
+25.9pp
Won
Long Beach State +8
84.5%
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
-
-
-
+25.0pp
Won
Long Beach State +7.5
82.7%
1.67
1xBet
1.72
Bet365
1.68
Pinnacle
1.66
Betano
1.65
Marathon Bet
1.65
+25.0pp
Won
Long Beach State +9.5
86.7%
1.50
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+24.9pp
Won
Long Beach State +10
88.3%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+24.8pp
Won
Long Beach State +11
89.8%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+23.6pp
Won
Long Beach State +10.5
88.5%
1.42
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+23.4pp
Won
Long Beach State +11.5
90.0%
1.35
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+21.8pp
Won
Long Beach State +12
91.2%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+21.8pp
Won
Long Beach State +12.5
91.4%
1.31
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
+20.3pp
Won
Long Beach State +13
92.5%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+20.1pp
Won
Long Beach State +13.5
92.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.27
Betano
1.24
-
-
-
+19.0pp
Won
Long Beach State +14
93.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+18.8pp
Won
Long Beach State +14.5
93.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+18.3pp
Won
Long Beach State +16.5
95.3%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+15.8pp
Won
Long Beach State +21.5
97.9%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
Pacific under 75.5
73.0%
1.44
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.44
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Pacific under 76.5
76.0%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
Over 133
70.8%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Lost
Pacific under 77.5
78.9%
1.29
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Won
Over 130.5
75.4%
1.38
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Lost
Over 132
72.9%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Lost
Over 129.5
77.3%
1.33
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Lost
Over 131
74.9%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Lost
Pacific under 78.5
81.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Over 132.5
71.4%
1.44
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Lost
Over 131.5
73.5%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Lost
Over 130
76.9%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Lost
Pacific under 80.5
86.1%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Over 127.5
80.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Lost
Overtime: no
94.8%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Over 128.5
79.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Lost
Over 122.5
88.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Lost
Over 123.5
86.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Lost
Pacific over 54.5
92.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Pacific over 55.5
90.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Pacific over 56.5
89.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Under 163.5
90.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Under 162.5
89.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Pacific over 57.5
87.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
Pacific over 58.5
85.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-4.2pp
Won
Under 158.5
84.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.2pp
Won
Pacific over 59.5
82.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-6.0pp
Lost
Under 157.5
82.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
Pacific over 60.5
80.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-7.0pp
Lost
Pacific over 62.5
74.2%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-7.7pp
Lost
Pacific over 61.5
77.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-8.3pp
Lost
Under 153.5
76.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-9.0pp
Won
Pacific +13.5
80.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-9.5pp
Won
Long Beach State under 82.5
83.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.7pp
Won
Pacific over 63.5
70.9%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-10.5pp
Lost
Under 152.5
74.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-10.9pp
Won
Long Beach State under 80.5
77.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-13.5pp
Won
Long Beach State under 78.5
71.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-18.0pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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