Montana State hosts Long Beach State in the NCAA on 7 November 2026, and the Pythia model names Montana State the clear favourite, rating them 93% to win largely because of their higher points per game at 74.0 versus Long Beach's 63.0 and a better points allowed per game at 84.0 compared with 66.0. Montana State's single game record is 0-1, having lost 74-84 to Colorado State, yet they have won three of their last five, including a 76-65 victory over Northern Arizona, and their most recent loss was 74-78 to Idaho at home. Long Beach State also sits at 0-1, with a 63.0 points per game and 66.0 allowed, and they have won two of their last five, notably a 84-75 win over Hawaii, but their recent loss to Utah Utes 63-66 away shows a tighter defence. In head-to-head history the teams have met three times, Montana State winning two and Long Beach State one, with the last meeting ending 78-72 for Montana State on 21 November 2025. Pythia projects a 82-65 score, 146.9 total points, and a 72% chance that Montana State will cover the -11.0 line, while the over on 147.5 has a 48% probability; the game carries a 2% chance of overtime. The next contest will see Montana State's defence try to hold Long Beach State to under 65 points.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Montana State winWon
93.1%fair 1.07
Best odds1.19
Implied81.9%
Edge+11.2pp
Long Beach State winLost
6.9%fair 14.48
Best odds5.50
Implied18.1%
Edge-11.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Montana State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 140.5Actual: Over 140.5
Over 140.5
65.2%
@ 1.47+0.3pp
Under 140.5
34.8%
@ 2.80-0.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.38
Under
Bet365
2.80
Betano
2.50
Over/Under 145.5 · main lineActual: Over 145.5
Over 145.5
53.3%
@ 1.92+3.5pp
Under 145.5
46.7%
@ 2.02-3.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
SBO
1.92
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Bet365
2.02
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
BetVictor
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
Over/Under 150.5Actual: Over 150.5
Over 150.5
41.0%
@ 2.37+1.8pp
Under 150.5
59.0%
@ 1.54-1.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.37
Bet365
2.35
Under
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Montana State total 75Actual: Montana State over 75
Over 75
77.1%
Under 75
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana State total 79 · main lineActual: Montana State over 79
Over 79
62.7%
@ 1.88+12.7pp
Under 79
37.3%
@ 1.87-12.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Montana State total 83Push
Over 83
46.1%
Under 83
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Long Beach State total 64Actual: Long Beach State over 64
Over 64
53.1%
Under 64
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Long Beach State total 68 · main lineActual: Long Beach State over 68
Over 68
36.8%
@ 1.85-13.5pp
Under 68
63.2%
@ 1.87+13.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Long Beach State total 72Actual: Long Beach State under 72
Over 72
22.8%
Under 72
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Montana State -13Push
MONT -13
65.1%
@ 2.25+24.0pp
LONG +13
34.9%
@ 1.57-24.0pp
Best 5 market prices
MONT
Bet365
2.25
LONG
Bet365
1.57
Spread Montana State -10 · main lineActual: Montana State -10
MONT -10
74.6%
@ 1.90+23.6pp
LONG +10
25.4%
@ 1.96-23.6pp
Best 5 market prices
MONT
1xBet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.83
SBO
1.82
Bet365
1.80
LONG
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.94
SBO
1.92
Marathon Be
1.88
1xBet
1.81
Spread Montana State -7Actual: Montana State -7
MONT -7
82.6%
@ 1.52+21.4pp
LONG +7
17.4%
@ 2.40-21.4pp
Best 5 market prices
MONT
Bet365
1.52
LONG
Bet365
2.40
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Montana StateLong Beach State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Montana StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Idaho
#136
W
36-26
36
26
+10
H06/02
NCAA
East. Washington
#261
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H08/02
NCAA
Montana
#186
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A15/02
NCAA
Weber State
#201
W
29-28
29
28
+1
A20/02
NCAA
Idaho State
#284
L
30-50
30
50
-20
A21/02
NCAA
Portland State
#87
W
43-34
43
34
+9
H27/02
NCAA
Sacramento State
#324
W
37-33
37
33
+4
H28/02
NCAA
Northern Arizona
#335
W
36-25
36
25
+11
A03/03
NCAA
Idaho
#136
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H09/03
NCAA
Colorado State
#135
L
38-44
38
44
-6
A03/11
NCAA
71.1Avg total
36.1Scored
35.0Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 69
Last 30 (30)
36.6
33.1
69.7
+3.6
60%
60%
Last 30 at home (13)
40.5
32.6
73.2
+7.9
92%
77%
Last 30 away (17)
33.6
33.4
67.1
+0.2
35%
47%
Last 10 (10)
36.1
35.0
71.1
+1.1
70%
70%
Last 5 (5)
38.8
34.4
73.2
+4.4
80%
80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)
37.3
39.0
76.3
-1.7
33%
100%
vs Similar ◀ (13)
36.0
32.2
68.2
+3.8
77%
46%
vs Weaker (13)
36.4
33.6
70.0
+2.8
46%
69%
This opponent (Long Beach State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Montana State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Montana State win
MONT win
no forecast
@ 1.40
LONG win
no forecast
@ 2.95
2nd half Spread Montana State -4.5 · main lineActual: Long Beach State +4.5
MONT -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
LONG +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Over/Under 77.5 · main lineActual: Over 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Montana State (regulation)
MONT
no forecast
@ 1.44
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.00
LONG
no forecast
@ 3.00
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Montana State -11
71.6%
2.00
Pinnacle
2.07
1xBet
2.04
SBO
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
+25.4pp
Won
Montana State -10.5
72.5%
1.90
Pinnacle
1.98
SBO
1.92
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.89
+23.8pp
Won
Montana State -10
74.6%
1.85
1xBet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.83
SBO
1.82
Bet365
1.80
+23.6pp
Won
Montana State -9
77.5%
1.71
Pinnacle
1.73
Bet365
1.68
-
-
-
+22.1pp
Won
Montana State -9.5
75.4%
1.76
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.76
1xBet
1.75
Bet365
1.74
+21.9pp
Won
Montana State -8
80.1%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
-
+21.7pp
Won
Montana State -7
82.6%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+21.4pp
Won
Montana State -8.5
78.1%
1.66
Pinnacle
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.64
-
+20.8pp
Won
Montana State -7.5
80.6%
1.54
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
+20.7pp
Won
Montana State -6
84.9%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+20.3pp
Won
Montana State -6.5
83.0%
1.48
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+20.3pp
Won
Montana State over 76.5
71.4%
1.71
Pinnacle
1.82
Betano
1.60
-
-
-
+19.6pp
Won
Montana State -5
87.0%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+19.4pp
Won
Montana State -5.5
85.2%
1.40
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
+19.3pp
Won
Montana State -4
88.9%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+18.4pp
Won
Montana State -4.5
87.2%
1.34
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
+18.1pp
Won
Montana State -3.5
89.1%
1.29
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.28
-
-
-
+17.3pp
Won
Montana State -3
90.3%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+17.2pp
Won
Montana State -2.5
90.5%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Won
Montana State (regulation)
92.0%
1.19
1xBet
1.20
Marathon Bet
1.19
Betano
1.19
-
-
+16.1pp
Won
Montana State over 75.5
74.7%
1.52
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+14.4pp
Won
Montana State over 74.5
77.9%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+14.1pp
Won
Montana State over 73.5
80.7%
1.36
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
+13.6pp
Won
Montana State win
93.1%
1.17
Marathon Bet
1.19
Pinnacle
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.16
+11.2pp
Won
Long Beach State under 73.5
80.7%
1.31
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Won
Long Beach State under 71.5
74.9%
1.44
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Won
Long Beach State under 70.5
71.7%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Long Beach State under 75.5
85.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Long Beach State under 72.5
77.9%
1.33
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
Montana State +4.5
96.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
Long Beach State under 77.5
89.4%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Won
Long Beach State under 74.5
83.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Montana State +9.5
98.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Overtime: no
98.4%
1.02
Betano
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Long Beach State under 76.5
87.6%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Under 171.5
93.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Over 121.5
94.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Montana State under 97.5
94.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Montana State under 95.5
91.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Under 166.5
88.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Over 126.5
89.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Long Beach State over 50.5
92.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Long Beach State over 51.5
90.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Under 161.5
81.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Long Beach State over 52.5
89.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Over 136.5
73.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Over 131.5
82.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Under 156.5
72.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Montana State under 93.5
87.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Long Beach State over 53.5
87.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Long Beach State over 54.5
84.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Montana State under 91.5
83.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Long Beach State over 55.5
82.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
Long Beach State over 56.5
79.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-7.6pp
Won
Montana State under 88.5
74.3%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-8.0pp
Won
Montana State under 89.5
77.4%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-8.7pp
Won
Long Beach State over 58.5
73.4%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-8.8pp
Won
Long Beach State over 57.5
76.6%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-9.5pp
Won
Montana State under 87.5
70.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-10.5pp
Won
Long Beach State over 59.5
70.0%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-11.4pp
Won
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Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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