Loyola Maryland hosts Morgan State on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Loyola Maryland the favourite with a 76% chance of winning, reflecting their 1-3 season record and 70.2 points per game scored versus 75.5 allowed. Morgan State, 3-1 with 85.2 points per game and 65.5 allowed, offers a 24% chance of victory. Loyola Maryland has a 1-0 home record, scoring 106.0 points and allowing 64.0 at home, while Morgan State has a 1-1 road record, averaging 71.5 points and conceding 76.0. In their last five, Loyola Maryland won once and lost four, including a 106-64 home win over Washington Shoremen and a 60-90 loss to Towson away; Morgan State won three of five, with a 95-58 home win over Virginia-Lynchburg, a 73-67 away win over Niagara, and a 70-85 loss to UMBC. The Pythia projection is 80-72, 151.9 total points, with a -1.0 spread that Loyola Maryland covers 75% of the time and a 150.5 total that goes over 53%. The game has a 4% overtime probability, and the most recent result for Loyola Maryland was a 106-64 victory at home.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Loyola Maryland winLost
75.9%fair 1.32
Best odds1.95
Implied50.0%
Edge+25.9pp
Morgan State winWon
24.1%fair 4.15
Best odds1.93
Implied50.0%
Edge-25.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 15:19 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Loyola Maryland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 147Actual: Under 147
Over 147
61.6%
@ 1.40-4.7pp
Under 147
38.4%
@ 2.75+4.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.75
Over/Under 152 · main lineActual: Under 152
Over 152
49.2%
@ 1.89-1.3pp
Under 152
50.8%
@ 2.01+1.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.88
Bet365
1.74
Under
Bet365
2.01
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.83
Over/Under 157Actual: Under 157
Over 157
37.1%
@ 2.35-2.5pp
Under 157
62.9%
@ 1.54+2.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.35
Under
Bet365
1.54
📊 3. Team Totals
Loyola Maryland total 71Actual: Loyola Maryland under 71
Over 71
82.1%
Under 71
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loyola Maryland total 75 · main lineActual: Loyola Maryland under 75
Over 75
69.6%
@ 1.85+19.6pp
Under 75
30.4%
@ 1.85-19.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Loyola Maryland total 79Actual: Loyola Maryland under 79
Over 79
54.0%
Under 79
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morgan State total 71.5Actual: Morgan State under 71.5
Over 71.5
51.3%
@ 1.35-15.8pp
Under 71.5
48.7%
@ 2.75+15.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Under
Betano
2.75
Morgan State total 75.5 · main lineActual: Morgan State under 75.5
Over 75.5
36.1%
@ 1.88-13.9pp
Under 75.5
63.9%
@ 1.95+13.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Bet365
1.86
Morgan State total 79.5Actual: Morgan State under 79.5
Over 79.5
23.1%
@ 2.40-14.6pp
Under 79.5
76.9%
@ 1.45+14.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.45
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Loyola Maryland -4Actual: Morgan State +4
LOYO -4
65.6%
@ 2.50+28.1pp
MORG +4
34.4%
@ 1.50-28.1pp
Best 5 market prices
LOYO
Bet365
2.50
MORG
Bet365
1.50
Spread Loyola Maryland -1 · main lineActual: Morgan State +1
LOYO -1
75.4%
@ 1.97+26.5pp
MORG +1
24.6%
@ 1.88-26.5pp
Best 5 market prices
LOYO
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.92
MORG
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.79
Bet365
1.74
Spread Loyola Maryland +2Push
LOYO +2
80.3%
@ 1.74+24.8pp
MORG -2
19.7%
@ 2.15-24.8pp
Best 5 market prices
LOYO
Bet365
1.74
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathon Be
1.69
MORG
Pinnacle
2.15
Bet365
2.08
Marathon Be
2.05
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Loyola MarylandMorgan State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Morgan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Morgan StateLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Delaware State
#353
W
48-35
48
35
+13
H21/02
NCAA
South Carolina St
#336
W
48-43
48
43
+5
A25/02
NCAA
Howard
#55
L
37-54
37
54
-17
H28/02
NCAA
Norfolk State
#233
L
45-55
45
55
-10
H02/03
NCAA
Coppin State
#354
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H06/03
NCAA
Delaware State
#353
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H11/03
NCAA
Cheyney Wolves
#433
W
53-27
53
27
+26
H03/11
NCAA
Virginia-Lynchburg
#498
W
48-32
48
32
+16
H05/11
NCAA
Niagara
#383
L
31-33
31
33
-2
A07/11
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#261
L
31-43
31
43
-12
A12/11
NCAA
81.1Avg total
42.2Scored
38.9Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 78.5
Last 30 (30)
40.2
38.8
79.0
+1.5
53%
47%
Last 30 at home (16)
44.1
37.1
81.2
+6.9
75%
56%
Last 30 away (14)
35.9
40.6
76.5
-4.8
29%
36%
Last 10 (10)
42.2
38.9
81.1
+3.3
60%
60%
Last 5 (5)
41.6
33.6
75.2
+8.0
60%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)
38.4
45.5
83.9
-7.1
25%
62%
vs Similar (8)
36.0
38.2
74.2
-2.2
50%
25%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)
43.7
35.2
78.9
+8.5
71%
50%
This opponent (Loyola Maryland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Morgan State win
LOYO win
no forecast
@ 1.93
MORG win
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half Spread Loyola Maryland +1.5 · main lineActual: Morgan State -1.5
LOYO +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
MORG -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.07
2nd half Over/Under 78.5 · main lineActual: Under 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Draw after regulation
LOYO
no forecast
@ 1.98
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.00
MORG
no forecast
@ 1.93
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Loyola Maryland (regulation)
73.5%
1.98
Betano
2.02
Marathon Bet
1.93
-
-
-
+27.9pp
Lost
Loyola Maryland -2
72.6%
2.12
Pinnacle
2.13
Bet365
2.10
-
-
-
+27.6pp
Lost
Loyola Maryland +3
82.6%
1.64
Bet365
1.64
-
-
-
-
+26.8pp
Won
Loyola Maryland -1
75.4%
1.95
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.92
-
-
+26.5pp
Lost
Loyola Maryland -1.5
73.6%
2.03
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.03
Bet365
2.00
-
-
+26.3pp
Lost
Loyola Maryland win
75.9%
1.92
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
+25.9pp
Lost
Loyola Maryland +1
77.5%
1.84
Bet365
1.88
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.80
-
-
+25.4pp
Lost
Loyola Maryland +4
84.8%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+25.1pp
Won
Loyola Maryland +2
80.3%
1.72
Bet365
1.74
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.69
-
-
+24.8pp
Push
Loyola Maryland +3.5
82.9%
1.58
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
+24.7pp
Won
Loyola Maryland +1.5
78.0%
1.79
Bet365
1.84
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.79
SBO
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.76
+24.5pp
Lost
Loyola Maryland +4.5
85.1%
1.51
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+23.7pp
Won
Loyola Maryland +2.5
80.9%
1.67
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.68
Pinnacle
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.64
-
+23.6pp
Won
Loyola Maryland +5
86.8%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+23.4pp
Won
Loyola Maryland +6
88.6%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Won
Loyola Maryland +5.5
87.1%
1.44
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Won
Loyola Maryland +6.5
88.8%
1.37
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
+21.4pp
Won
Loyola Maryland +7
90.2%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+21.2pp
Won
Loyola Maryland +7.5
90.4%
1.32
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
+20.2pp
Won
Loyola Maryland +8
91.6%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+20.2pp
Won
Loyola Maryland +8.5
91.7%
1.27
Bet365
1.29
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
+19.1pp
Won
Loyola Maryland +9
92.8%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+18.7pp
Won
Loyola Maryland +9.5
92.9%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+18.1pp
Won
Loyola Maryland over 74.5
70.6%
1.75
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.70
-
-
-
+17.9pp
Lost
Loyola Maryland +11.5
94.8%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Won
Morgan State under 80.5
79.7%
1.44
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
+15.7pp
Won
Morgan State under 78.5
73.9%
1.55
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Won
Loyola Maryland over 72.5
77.1%
1.47
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
-
+15.3pp
Lost
Morgan State under 77.5
70.8%
1.76
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.67
-
+15.0pp
Won
Morgan State under 79.5
76.9%
1.45
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
-
+14.6pp
Won
Loyola Maryland over 73.5
74.0%
1.54
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+14.1pp
Lost
Loyola Maryland over 70.5
82.6%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+14.1pp
Lost
Morgan State under 81.5
82.2%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+13.5pp
Won
Loyola Maryland over 71.5
79.9%
1.37
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+13.2pp
Lost
Loyola Maryland +16.5
97.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Won
Loyola Maryland +21.5
99.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Loyola Maryland over 69.5
85.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Lost
Loyola Maryland over 67.5
89.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Lost
Under 160.5
70.3%
1.36
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Under 161
71.8%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Under 161.5
72.4%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Loyola Maryland under 95.5
93.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Over 143
70.7%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Lost
Loyola Maryland under 93.5
91.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Over 142.5
71.3%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Lost
Morgan State +23.5
91.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
Loyola Maryland under 91.5
87.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
Morgan State over 58.5
90.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Morgan State over 59.5
88.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Morgan State over 60.5
86.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
Loyola Maryland under 89.5
82.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-5.8pp
Won
Morgan State over 61.5
84.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-6.1pp
Won
Morgan State +18.5
82.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.0pp
Won
Morgan State over 62.5
82.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-8.3pp
Won
Loyola Maryland under 87.5
77.4%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-8.7pp
Won
Loyola Maryland under 86.5
74.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-8.8pp
Won
Loyola Maryland under 85.5
71.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-9.5pp
Won
Morgan State over 63.5
79.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-9.6pp
Lost
Morgan State over 64.5
76.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-11.8pp
Lost
Morgan State over 65.5
73.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-13.3pp
Lost
Morgan State over 66.5
70.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-14.4pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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