Maccabi Petah Tikva will host Elitzur Yavne in the Liga Leumit on 13 November 2026, with the model favouring the home side at 76% versus 24% for the visitors; the 76% probability reflects Maccabi's 2-2 record, 89.8 points scored and 92.5 points allowed per game, and a league position of 9, while Elitzur Yavne sits 14th with 0-5, 66.2 points scored and 85.2 allowed. Maccabi's home performance is 1-1, 87.5 points for and 92.0 against, and they have won two of their last five, including a 94-87 win over Migdal Haemek, whereas Elitzur's road record is 0-2, 54.5 points for and 78.0 against, and they have lost all five of their recent outings, the most recent being an 81-88 loss to Otef Darom. In previous encounters the two teams have met three times, with Maccabi winning all three, most recently 92-72 on 19 May 2026. The projected score is 88-80 for Maccabi, giving a total of 167.9 points; the home line is -7.5 with a 52% chance of covering, and the over/under line of 166.5 has a 53% probability of an over, with a 4% chance of overtime. The game will see Maccabi Petah Tikva maintain its advantage over Elitzur Yavne.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Maccabi Petah Tikva winWon
76.0%fair 1.32
Best odds1.50
Implied67.1%
Edge+9.0pp
Elitzur Yavne winLost
24.0%fair 4.17
Best odds2.90
Implied32.9%
Edge-9.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 11 Nov 14:18 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Maccabi Petah Tikva -1
75.5%
1.66
Pinnacle
1.66
-
-
-
-
+20.6pp
Won
Maccabi Petah Tikva +1
77.6%
1.59
Pinnacle
1.59
-
-
-
-
+20.5pp
Won
Maccabi Petah Tikva -1.5
73.7%
1.60
Pinnacle
1.70
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.42
-
-
+20.0pp
Won
Elitzur Yavne under 86
73.2%
1.62
1xBet
1.62
-
-
-
-
+19.9pp
Won
Maccabi Petah Tikva +1.5
78.1%
1.38
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.28
-
-
+19.8pp
Won
Elitzur Yavne under 89.5
82.2%
1.39
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.36
-
-
-
+17.6pp
Won
Under 181.5
79.7%
1.47
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
-
+17.2pp
Lost
Under 182.5
81.3%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+16.9pp
Lost
Maccabi Petah Tikva +4.5
85.2%
1.34
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
-
+16.8pp
Won
Under 183.5
82.9%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Won
Maccabi Petah Tikva +5.5
87.1%
1.29
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
-
+16.2pp
Won
Maccabi Petah Tikva +6.5
88.9%
1.25
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Won
Elitzur Yavne under 88.5
79.7%
1.38
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.28
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Won
Maccabi Petah Tikva -2
72.7%
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
-
-
-
-
+13.7pp
Won
Maccabi Petah Tikva under 95.5
77.3%
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
-
+13.4pp
Lost
Maccabi Petah Tikva +2.5
81.0%
1.32
1xBet
1.39
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
+12.7pp
Won
Maccabi Petah Tikva (regulation)
73.6%
1.42
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Won
Under 180.5
78.0%
1.39
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Lost
Elitzur Yavne under 87.5
77.0%
1.38
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.32
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
Under 178.5
74.4%
1.45
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Lost
Maccabi Petah Tikva +3.5
83.0%
1.27
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
-
+10.8pp
Won
Under 179.5
76.2%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+10.8pp
Lost
Elitzur Yavne under 85.5
70.9%
1.58
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.44
-
-
+10.6pp
Won
Elitzur Yavne under 86.5
74.0%
1.39
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.38
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
Maccabi Petah Tikva under 94.5
74.2%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Lost
Maccabi Petah Tikva win
76.0%
1.41
WilliamHill
1.50
Bet365
1.45
Betfair
1.44
1xBet
1.43
BetVictor
1.38
+9.0pp
Won
Under 177.5
72.4%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Lost
Under 176.5
70.4%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Lost
Maccabi Petah Tikva over 81.5
73.9%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Maccabi Petah Tikva over 82.5
70.6%
1.34
1xBet
1.34
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Overtime: no
95.9%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Maccabi Petah Tikva under 93.5
70.9%
1.33
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.27
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Lost
Elitzur Yavne +14.5
71.9%
1.27
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
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Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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