Mainland Pouakai W host Northern Kahu W on 14 November 2026 in the Tauihi Women, with the model favouring Mainland Pouakai W at 86% to win over 14% for Northern Kahu W, reflecting Mainland's 6-3 record, 90.6 points per game and 83.3 allowed, and a league position of 2, compared to Northern's 3-5 record, 75.9 points per game and 83.0 allowed from 8 games. Mainland's home form is 2-2, 83.2 points per game and 83.5 allowed, while Northern's road record is 1-2, 68.0 points per game and 78.7 allowed; Mainland's last five were 3-2 and included a 100-83 win over Southern Hoiho W, a 94-84 loss to Northern Kahu W, and a 90-75 win over Mid-North Whai W, whereas Northern's last five were 2-3 with a 71-88 loss to Tokomanawa Queens W, a 94-84 win over Mainland Pouakai W and a 69-86 loss to Southern Hoiho W. In head-to-head, Mainland leads 6-4, but Northern last beat Mainland 94-84 on 6 November 2026. The Pythia model projects a 92-80 score, 171.5 total points, a -10.0 home line with a 58% chance of Mainland covering, a 170.0 total line with a 53% over probability, and a 3% overtime chance. The next game will see Mainland try to turn last week's loss into a decisive victory.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (9) | 90.6 | 83.3 | 173.9 | +7.2 | 67% |
| Season at home (4) | 83.2 | 83.5 | 166.8 | -0.2 | 50% |
| Season away (5) | 96.4 | 83.2 | 179.6 | +13.2 | 80% |
| Last 10 (10) | 88.1 | 84.3 | 172.4 | +3.8 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 88.4 | 84.8 | 173.2 | +3.6 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 84.5 | 87.0 | 171.5 | -2.5 | 50% |
| vs Similar (18) | 85.2 | 84.1 | 169.3 | +1.2 | 56% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 91.6 | 78.2 | 169.8 | +13.4 | 80% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (8) | 75.9 | 83.0 | 158.9 | -7.1 | 38% |
| Season at home (5) | 80.6 | 85.6 | 166.2 | -5.0 | 40% |
| Season away (3) | 68.0 | 78.7 | 146.7 | -10.7 | 33% |
| Last 10 (10) | 74.1 | 85.4 | 159.5 | -11.3 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 81.2 | 87.2 | 168.4 | -6.0 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (18) | 73.3 | 85.6 | 158.8 | -12.3 | 17% |
| vs Similar (8) | 72.8 | 72.2 | 145.0 | +0.5 | 38% |
| vs Weaker (4) | 82.2 | 77.5 | 159.8 | +4.8 | 50% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 83.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 43.5 | 41.0 | 84.6 | +2.5 | 57% | 53% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 45.8 | 39.6 | 85.4 | +6.2 | 75% | 50% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 40.9 | 42.6 | 83.6 | -1.7 | 36% | 57% |
| Last 10 (10) | 42.1 | 40.4 | 82.5 | +1.7 | 50% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 41.2 | 39.4 | 80.6 | +1.8 | 60% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 47.0 | 47.5 | 94.5 | -0.5 | 50% | 100% |
| vs Similar (18) | 42.8 | 41.4 | 84.2 | +1.4 | 50% | 44% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 44.2 | 39.1 | 83.3 | +5.1 | 70% | 60% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 83.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.4 | 40.8 | 78.2 | -3.3 | 37% | 37% |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 36.8 | 40.0 | 76.8 | -3.2 | 35% | 35% |
| Last 30 away (13) | 38.2 | 41.8 | 80.0 | -3.5 | 38% | 38% |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.6 | 43.6 | 79.2 | -8.0 | 20% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.8 | 45.4 | 83.2 | -7.6 | 20% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (18) | 37.5 | 43.6 | 81.1 | -6.1 | 28% | 56% |
| vs Similar (8) | 34.9 | 37.0 | 71.9 | -2.1 | 50% | 12% |
| vs Weaker (4) | 42.2 | 35.5 | 77.8 | +6.8 | 50% | 0% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainland Pouakai W -4 | 78.5% | 1.58 | 1.58 | - | - | - | - | +19.8pp | Lost |
| Mainland Pouakai W (regulation) | 84.0% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +19.3pp | Won |
| Mainland Pouakai W -3.5 | 79.1% | 1.49 | 1.54 | 1.48 | 1.44 | - | - | +19.0pp | Lost |
| Mainland Pouakai W -6 | 72.3% | 1.73 | 1.73 | - | - | - | - | +18.5pp | Lost |
| Mainland Pouakai W -5 | 75.4% | 1.62 | 1.62 | - | - | - | - | +18.2pp | Lost |
| Mainland Pouakai W -1.5 | 84.2% | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.34 | - | - | - | +17.7pp | Lost |
| Mainland Pouakai W -5.5 | 73.1% | 1.70 | 1.82 | 1.68 | 1.67 | 1.62 | - | +17.6pp | Lost |
| Mainland Pouakai W -4.5 | 76.2% | 1.55 | 1.57 | 1.57 | 1.52 | - | - | +17.3pp | Lost |
| Mainland Pouakai W -2.5 | 81.4% | 1.38 | 1.40 | 1.36 | - | - | - | +15.9pp | Lost |
| Mainland Pouakai W win | 85.8% | 1.31 | 1.36 | 1.33 | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.30 | +13.9pp | Won |
| Northern Kahu W under 85.5 | 72.3% | 1.48 | 1.48 | - | - | - | - | +13.5pp | Won |
| Northern Kahu W under 86.5 | 75.4% | 1.41 | 1.41 | - | - | - | - | +13.5pp | Won |
| Northern Kahu W under 87.5 | 78.3% | 1.35 | 1.35 | - | - | - | - | +13.3pp | Won |
| Northern Kahu W under 88.5 | 80.9% | 1.30 | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | +12.9pp | Won |
| Mainland Pouakai W over 84.5 | 77.0% | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | +10.7pp | Lost |
| Mainland Pouakai W over 85.5 | 73.9% | 1.38 | 1.38 | - | - | - | - | +10.6pp | Lost |
| Mainland Pouakai W over 86.5 | 70.5% | 1.45 | 1.45 | - | - | - | - | +10.6pp | Lost |
| Mainland Pouakai W over 83.5 | 79.9% | 1.28 | 1.28 | - | - | - | - | +10.6pp | Lost |
| Overtime: no | 97.1% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +5.4pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 39.3 | 20.6 | 50.4% | 41.2 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 32.4 | 11.2 | 31.7% | 33.6 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 22.8 | 15.0 | 73.0% | 15.0 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 40.9 | 18.7 | 50.4% | 37.4 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 21.2 | 5.8 | 31.7% | 17.4 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 21.9 | 16.4 | 73.0% | 16.4 |
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 06/11/26 | Northern Kahu W v Mainland Pouakai W | 94-84 |
| 11/10/26 | Northern Kahu W v Mainland Pouakai W | 87-94 |
| 28/11/25 | Mainland Pouakai W v Northern Kahu W | 102-62 |
| 02/11/25 | Mainland Pouakai W v Northern Kahu W | 85-66 |
| 28/09/25 | Northern Kahu W v Mainland Pouakai W | 83-88 |
| 09/11/24 | Northern Kahu W v Mainland Pouakai W | 66-69 |
| 25/10/24 | Northern Kahu W v Mainland Pouakai W | 76-50 |
| 19/10/24 | Mainland Pouakai W v Northern Kahu W | 88-79 |
| 20/08/23 | Mainland Pouakai W v Northern Kahu W | 90-101 |
| 02/08/23 | Northern Kahu W v Mainland Pouakai W | 99-87 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/26 | A | Southern Hoiho W | 100-83 |
| 06/11/26 | A | Northern Kahu W | 84-94 |
| 31/10/26 | A | Mid-North Whai W | 90-75 |
| 23/10/26 | H | Tokomanawa Queens W | 93-90 |
| 17/10/26 | H | Southern Hoiho W | 75-82 |
| 11/10/26 | A | Northern Kahu W | 94-87 |
| 09/10/26 | H | Mid-North Whai W | 78-82 |
| 04/10/26 | A | Tokomanawa Queens W | 114-77 |
| 26/09/26 | H | Southern Hoiho W | 87-80 |
| 14/12/25 | H | Mid-North Whai W | 66-93 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Tokomanawa Queens W | 71-88 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Mainland Pouakai W | 94-84 |
| 30/10/26 | A | Southern Hoiho W | 69-86 |
| 18/10/26 | H | Mid-North Whai W | 85-84 |
| 11/10/26 | H | Mainland Pouakai W | 87-94 |
| 04/10/26 | H | Southern Hoiho W | 66-78 |
| 27/09/26 | A | Tokomanawa Queens W | 75-69 |
| 25/09/26 | A | Mid-North Whai W | 60-81 |
| 30/11/25 | H | Tokomanawa Queens W | 72-88 |
| 28/11/25 | A | Mainland Pouakai W | 62-102 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWWLW | 67% |
| Home | WLLW | 50% |
| Away | WWWLW | 80% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 4 | 5 |
| Win % | 67% | 50% | 80% |
| Points / game | 90.6 | 83.2 | 96.4 |
| Allowed / game | 83.3 | 83.5 | 83.2 |
| Point differential | +7.2 | -0.2 | +13.2 |
| Avg total | 173.9 | 166.8 | 179.6 |
| Over 172.25 | 56% | 25% | 80% |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 0% | 60% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | 50% (2) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWLWL | 38% |
| Home | LLWWL | 40% |
| Away | LWL | 33% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| Win % | 38% | 40% | 33% |
| Points / game | 75.9 | 80.6 | 68.0 |
| Allowed / game | 83.0 | 85.6 | 78.7 |
| Point differential | -7.1 | -5.0 | -10.7 |
| Avg total | 158.9 | 166.2 | 146.7 |
| Over 172.25 | 25% | 40% | 0% |
| Win by 10+ | 12% | 20% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southern Hoiho W | 10 | 8 | 2 | 80% | 82.2 | 74.9 | +7.3 |
| 2 | Mainland Pouakai W | 9 | 6 | 3 | 67% | 90.6 | 83.3 | +7.2 |
| 3 | Northern Kahu W | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38% | 75.9 | 83.0 | -7.1 |
| 4 | Mid-North Whai W | 9 | 3 | 6 | 33% | 73.4 | 81.8 | -8.3 |
| 5 | Tokomanawa Queens W | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25% | 82.8 | 83.5 | -0.8 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainland Pouakai W | 22 | 17 | 16 | 17 | 72 |
| Northern Kahu W | 17 | 17 | 24 | 13 | 71 |
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