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Nadezhda W vs Samara W Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 05 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 14:00
Projected 80-61
Projected total 140.3
Final 56-54
14-17 18-18 16-13 8-6
Position#6
Record2-3
FormWWLLL
Points / game62.6
Allowed / game67.0
Nadezhda W 🏆
Russia
Vs
95%
■ NADE 95%■ SAMA 5%
Pythia win probability
Samara W
Russia
Position#12
Record0-5
FormLLLLL
Points / game56.2
Allowed / game82.8
RussiaPremier League W· Orenburzhje Sport Hall
Women2026-27
Meetings · Nadezhda W v Samara W
05 Nov 2026
NADE56
SAMA54
05 Oct 2025
NADE60
SAMA53
07 Oct 2024
NADE77
SAMA61
25 Apr 2024
NADE64
SAMA73
23 Feb 2024
NADE91
SAMA58
28 Jan 2024
NADE68
SAMA71
14 Dec 2023
NADE68
SAMA72
01 Apr 2023
NADE85
SAMA67
24 Mar 2023
NADE68
SAMA69
15 Mar 2023
NADE69
SAMA61
26 Oct 2022
NADE81
SAMA71
12 Dec 2021
NADE94
SAMA65
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Nadezhda W will host Samara W on 5 November 2026 in the Premier League W, and the Pythia model names Nadezhda W the favourite, assigning a 95% chance to win, driven by their 2-3 season record, 62.6 points scored and 67.0 allowed per game, and a sixth-place league position, while Samara W sits at 0-5, 56.2 points scored and 82.8 allowed, last in the standings. Nadezhda W's five games all come from a 2-3 record with the same averages, and their last five games include two losses to Novosibirsk W 60-66, Dynamo Kursk W 54-68 and Dynamo Moscow W 59-74, all at home. Samara W's road record is 0-4, 56.2 points scored and 84.2 allowed, and their last five games feature defeats to Spartak Moscow W 56-77, Enisey Krasnoyarsk W 64-72 and UMMC Ekaterinburg W 41-87. Historically, Nadezhda W has won six of ten meetings, most recently 88-54 on 12 December 2025. Pythia projects an 80-61 score, a 140.3 total, and a 1% overtime probability, with a 95% chance that Nadezhda W will cover the home line. The final game will see Nadezhda W attempt to turn their recent home losses into a decisive victory.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nadezhda W winWon
94.5%fair 1.06
Best odds1.36
Implied68.0%
Edge+26.5pp
Samara W winLost
5.5%fair 18.35
Best odds2.89
Implied32.0%
Edge-26.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 03 Nov 14:17 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Nadezhda WRussiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UMMC Ekaterinburg W
#1
L
62-85
62
85
-23
A05/04
Premier League W
UMMC Ekaterinburg W
#1
L
61-84
61
84
-23
H09/04
Premier League W
Nika Siktivkar W
#4
W
78-51
78
51
+27
A18/04
Premier League W
Nika Siktivkar W
#4
W
85-73
85
73
+12
A20/04
Premier League W
Nika Siktivkar W
#4
W
75-67
75
67
+8
H24/04
Premier League W
Ivanovo W
#10
W
77-67
77
67
+10
H04/10
Premier League W
Neftyanik Omsk W
#7
W
63-60
63
60
+3
H12/10
Premier League W
Dynamo Moscow W
#3
L
59-74
59
74
-15
H20/10
Premier League W
Dynamo Kursk W
#2
L
54-68
54
68
-14
H23/10
Premier League W
Novosibirsk W
#8
L
60-66
60
66
-6
H01/11
Premier League W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-20
16-26
9-16
17-23
21-17
18-24
9-21
13-22
23-16
27-17
13-10
15-8
13-18
21-17
20-25
31-13
24-13
19-19
13-20
19-15
18-14
11-18
27-20
21-15
21-16
7-18
13-16
22-10
8-18
15-17
14-19
22-20
18-21
14-11
11-16
11-20
15-17
20-14
11-18
14-17
136.9Avg total
67.4Scored
69.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)62.667.0129.6-4.440%
Season at home (5)62.667.0129.6-4.440%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)67.469.5136.9-2.150%
Last 5 (5)62.667.0129.6-4.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)60.478.6139.0-18.20%
vs Similar (6)74.767.5142.2+7.283%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)73.459.2132.6+14.186%
This opponent (Samara W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Samara WRussiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Novosibirsk W
#12
W
71-66
71
66
+5
A02/04
Premier League W
Ivanovo W
#11
W
82-78 OT
82
78
+4
H03/04
Premier League W
Neftyanik Omsk W
#10
L
53-71
53
71
-18
A06/04
Premier League W
Novosibirsk W
#12
W
65-62
65
62
+3
H07/04
Premier League W
Ivanovo W
#11
W
79-72
79
72
+7
A08/04
Premier League W
Dynamo Moscow W
#3
L
73-88
73
88
-15
A04/10
Premier League W
Dynamo Kursk W
#2
L
47-90
47
90
-43
A12/10
Premier League W
UMMC Ekaterinburg W
#1
L
41-87
41
87
-46
A20/10
Premier League W
Enisey Krasnoyarsk W
#9
L
64-72
64
72
-8
A24/10
Premier League W
Spartak Moscow W
#5
L
56-77
56
77
-21
H01/11
Premier League W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-26
10-12
17-16
24-12
19-24
17-9
12-16
24-23
10-11
18-20
16-21
9-19
19-21
14-11
12-13
20-17
19-12
29-23
19-18
12-19
15-27
26-20
17-19
15-22
11-25
12-29
13-22
11-14
14-23
9-23
12-19
6-22
15-14
18-11
18-26
13-21
17-33
20-14
9-21
10-9
139.4Avg total
63.1Scored
76.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)56.282.8139.0-26.60%
Season at home (1)56.077.0133.0-21.00%
Season away (4)56.284.2140.5-28.00%
Last 10 (10)63.176.3139.4-13.240%
Last 5 (5)56.282.8139.0-26.60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)61.388.3149.6-27.014%
vs Similar (16)70.368.9139.2+1.456%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Nadezhda W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 127.5Actual: Under 127.5
Over 127.5
78.6%
@ 1.49
Under 127.5
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.49
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 132.5 · main lineActual: Under 132.5
Over 132.5
68.5%
@ 1.84+18.5pp
Under 132.5
31.5%
@ 1.84-18.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Over/Under 137.5Actual: Under 137.5
Over 137.5
56.8%
Under 137.5
43.2%
@ 1.49
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
Marathon Be
1.49

📊 3. Team Totals

Nadezhda W total 65.5Actual: Nadezhda W under 65.5
Over 65.5
92.2%
Under 65.5
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nadezhda W total 69.5 · main lineActual: Nadezhda W under 69.5
Over 69.5
84.5%
@ 1.83+34.5pp
Under 69.5
15.5%
@ 1.83-34.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Nadezhda W total 73.5Actual: Nadezhda W under 73.5
Over 73.5
73.0%
Under 73.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samara W total 59Actual: Samara W under 59
Over 59
57.1%
Under 59
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samara W total 63 · main lineActual: Samara W under 63
Over 63
40.5%
@ 1.83-9.5pp
Under 63
59.5%
@ 1.83+9.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Samara W total 67Actual: Samara W under 67
Over 67
25.7%
Under 67
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Nadezhda W -9.5Actual: Samara W +9.5
NADE -9.5
79.3%
@ 2.19+38.0pp
SAMA +9.5
20.7%
@ 1.54-38.0pp
Best 5 market prices
NADE
Marathon Be
2.19
1xBet
2.19
SAMA
Marathon Be
1.54
1xBet
1.54
Spread Nadezhda W -6.5 · main lineActual: Samara W +6.5
NADE -6.5
86.1%
@ 1.84+36.1pp
SAMA +6.5
13.9%
@ 1.84-36.1pp
Best 5 market prices
NADE
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
SAMA
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Spread Nadezhda W -3.5Actual: Samara W +3.5
NADE -3.5
91.2%
@ 1.53+32.1pp
SAMA +3.5
8.8%
@ 2.21-32.1pp
Best 5 market prices
NADE
Marathon Be
1.53
1xBet
1.53
SAMA
Marathon Be
2.21
1xBet
2.21

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +1.1+1.1Q1: -5.7-5.7Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: +0.1+0.1Q3Q3: -4.1-4.1Q3: -4.6-4.6Q4Q4: +2.2+2.2Q4: -3.4-3.4
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +1.1+1.1Q1: -5.7-5.7Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: +0.1+0.1Q3Q3: -4.1-4.1Q3: -4.6-4.6Q4Q4: +2.2+2.2Q4: -3.4-3.4
Nadezhda WSamara W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Nadezhda WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UMMC Ekaterinburg W
#1
L
36-46
36
46
-10
A05/04
Premier League W
UMMC Ekaterinburg W
#1
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H09/04
Premier League W
Nika Siktivkar W
#4
W
50-33
50
33
+17
A18/04
Premier League W
Nika Siktivkar W
#4
L
34-35
34
35
-1
A20/04
Premier League W
Nika Siktivkar W
#4
W
43-32
43
32
+11
H24/04
Premier League W
Ivanovo W
#10
L
29-32
29
32
-3
H04/10
Premier League W
Neftyanik Omsk W
#7
L
28-34
28
34
-6
H12/10
Premier League W
Dynamo Moscow W
#3
L
23-35
23
35
-12
H20/10
Premier League W
Dynamo Kursk W
#2
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H23/10
Premier League W
Novosibirsk W
#8
W
35-31
35
31
+4
H01/11
Premier League W
70.0Avg total
34.9Scored
35.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 66
Last 30 (29)35.936.772.6-0.841%69%
Last 30 at home (16)33.835.469.2-1.638%50%
Last 30 away (13)38.438.376.7+0.146%92%
Last 10 (10)34.935.170.0-0.230%50%
Last 5 (5)29.432.862.2-3.420%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)31.539.971.4-8.410%60%
vs Similar (6)37.033.770.7+3.350%83%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)38.735.674.3+3.162%69%
This opponent (Samara W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Samara WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Novosibirsk W
#12
L
30-38
30
38
-8
A02/04
Premier League W
Ivanovo W
#11
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H03/04
Premier League W
Neftyanik Omsk W
#10
L
28-31
28
31
-3
A06/04
Premier League W
Novosibirsk W
#12
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H07/04
Premier League W
Ivanovo W
#11
W
48-35
48
35
+13
A08/04
Premier League W
Dynamo Moscow W
#3
L
41-47
41
47
-6
A04/10
Premier League W
Dynamo Kursk W
#2
L
23-54
23
54
-31
A12/10
Premier League W
UMMC Ekaterinburg W
#1
L
23-46
23
46
-23
A20/10
Premier League W
Enisey Krasnoyarsk W
#9
W
33-25
33
25
+8
A24/10
Premier League W
Spartak Moscow W
#5
L
37-47
37
47
-10
H01/11
Premier League W
72.0Avg total
33.2Scored
38.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 66
Last 30 (30)34.140.574.6-6.440%77%
Last 30 at home (18)35.241.977.1-6.744%83%
Last 30 away (12)32.538.470.9-5.933%67%
Last 10 (10)33.238.872.0-5.640%70%
Last 5 (5)31.443.875.2-12.420%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)32.447.980.3-15.614%93%
vs Similar (16)35.734.069.7+1.762%62%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Nadezhda W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread Nadezhda W -3.5 · main lineActual: Samara W +3.5
NADE -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
SAMA +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 66 · main lineActual: Over 66
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
Nadezhda W 1st half total 34.5 · main lineActual: Nadezhda W under 34.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.79
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Nadezhda W (regulation)
NADE
no forecast
@ 1.50
Draw
no forecast
@ 16.00
SAMA
no forecast
@ 2.66

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
Double chance (regulation)
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Nadezhda W -981.3%2.14
Marathon Bet
2.14
1xBet
2.14		---+39.0ppLost
Nadezhda W -883.6%1.99
Marathon Bet
1.99
1xBet
1.99		---+38.2ppLost
Nadezhda W -9.579.3%2.19
Marathon Bet
2.19
1xBet
2.19		---+38.0ppLost
Nadezhda W -8.581.8%2.05
Marathon Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.05		---+37.6ppLost
Nadezhda W -785.8%1.88
Marathon Bet
1.88
1xBet
1.88		---+37.3ppLost
Nadezhda W -7.584.0%1.92
Marathon Bet
1.92
1xBet
1.92		---+36.7ppLost
Nadezhda W -687.7%1.77
Marathon Bet
1.77
1xBet
1.77		---+36.2ppLost
Nadezhda W -6.586.1%1.84
Marathon Bet
1.84
1xBet
1.84		---+36.1ppLost
Nadezhda W over 7084.1%1.88
Marathon Bet
1.88
1xBet
1.88		---+35.8ppLost
Nadezhda W -5.587.9%1.72
Marathon Bet
1.72
1xBet
1.72		---+35.2ppLost
Nadezhda W -589.5%1.66
Marathon Bet
1.66
1xBet
1.66		---+35.0ppLost
Nadezhda W over 6986.5%1.76
Marathon Bet
1.76
1xBet
1.76		---+34.9ppLost
Nadezhda W over 69.584.5%1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.83		---+34.5ppLost
Nadezhda W -4.589.7%1.62
Marathon Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.62		---+33.8ppLost
Nadezhda W -491.1%1.57
Marathon Bet
1.57
1xBet
1.57		---+33.4ppLost
Nadezhda W -3.591.2%1.53
Marathon Bet
1.53
1xBet
1.53		---+32.1ppLost
Nadezhda W (regulation)93.6%1.37
Marathon Bet
1.37
1xBet
1.37		---+28.7ppWon
Nadezhda W win94.5%1.35
1xBet
1.36
Marathon Bet
1.35		---+26.5ppWon
Over 13270.0%1.79
Marathon Bet
1.79
1xBet
1.79		---+19.1ppLost
Over 13172.2%1.70
Marathon Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.70		---+18.9ppLost
Over 13074.3%1.63
Marathon Bet
1.63
1xBet
1.63		---+18.8ppLost
Over 131.570.7%1.74
Marathon Bet
1.74
1xBet
1.74		---+18.5ppLost
Over 129.574.8%1.60
Marathon Bet
1.60
1xBet
1.60		---+18.3ppLost
Over 130.572.8%1.66
Marathon Bet
1.66
1xBet
1.66		---+18.3ppLost
Nadezhda W +195.1%1.29
Marathon Bet
1.29		-----Won
Nadezhda W -194.5%1.36
Marathon Bet
1.36		-----Won
Nadezhda W -1.593.8%1.39
Marathon Bet
1.39		-----Won
Nadezhda W -293.7%1.42
Marathon Bet
1.42		-----Push
Nadezhda W -2.592.4%1.47
Marathon Bet
1.47		-----Lost
Nadezhda W -392.3%1.49
Marathon Bet
1.49		-----Lost
Over 126.580.4%1.43
Marathon Bet
1.43		-----Lost
Over 12780.0%1.45
Marathon Bet
1.45		-----Lost
Over 127.578.6%1.49
Marathon Bet
1.49		-----Lost
Over 12878.2%1.51
Marathon Bet
1.51		-----Lost
Over 128.576.8%1.54
Marathon Bet
1.54		-----Lost
Over 12976.3%1.56
Marathon Bet
1.56		-----Lost
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Nadezhda W wins
4
Samara W wins
DateGameScore
12/12/25Samara W v Nadezhda W54-88
05/10/25Nadezhda W v Samara W60-53
12/12/24Samara W v Nadezhda W58-63
07/10/24Nadezhda W v Samara W77-61
25/04/24Nadezhda W v Samara W64-73
21/04/24Samara W v Nadezhda W72-60
23/02/24Nadezhda W v Samara W91-58
28/01/24Nadezhda W v Samara W68-71 OT
14/12/23Nadezhda W v Samara W68-72
12/10/23Samara W v Nadezhda W46-69
Nadezhda Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/11/26HNovosibirsk W60-66
23/10/26HDynamo Kursk W54-68
20/10/26HDynamo Moscow W59-74
12/10/26HNeftyanik Omsk W63-60
04/10/26HIvanovo W77-67
24/04/26HNika Siktivkar W75-67
20/04/26ANika Siktivkar W85-73
18/04/26ANika Siktivkar W78-51
09/04/26HUMMC Ekaterinburg W61-84
05/04/26AUMMC Ekaterinburg W62-85
Samara Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/11/26HSpartak Moscow W56-77
24/10/26AEnisey Krasnoyarsk W64-72
20/10/26AUMMC Ekaterinburg W41-87
12/10/26ADynamo Kursk W47-90
04/10/26ADynamo Moscow W73-88
08/04/26AIvanovo W79-72
07/04/26HNovosibirsk W65-62
06/04/26ANeftyanik Omsk W53-71
03/04/26HIvanovo W82-78 OT
02/04/26ANovosibirsk W71-66

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nadezhda W
Premier League W 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL40%
HomeWWLLL40%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games55-
Win %40%40%-
Points / game62.662.6-
Allowed / game67.067.0-
Point differential-4.4-4.4-
Avg total129.6129.6-
Over 132.540%40%-
Win by 10+20%20%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%-
Samara W
Premier League W 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL0%
HomeL0%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games514
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game56.256.056.2
Allowed / game82.877.084.2
Point differential-26.6-21.0-28.0
Avg total139.0133.0140.5
Over 132.580%100%75%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UMMC Ekaterinburg W550100%84.851.8+33.0
2 MBA Moscow W440100%74.557.0+17.5
3 Dynamo Moscow W76186%77.468.3+9.1
4 Dynamo Kursk W65183%80.561.8+18.7
5 Spartak Moscow W64267%71.867.0+4.8
6 Nadezhda W52340%62.667.0-4.4
7 Enisey Krasnoyarsk W52340%61.470.4-9.0
8 Neftyanik Omsk W62433%63.066.5-3.5
9 Novosibirsk W51420%60.474.0-13.6
10 Ivanovo W61517%67.576.5-9.0
11 Vladimir W61517%63.779.8-16.2
12 Samara W5050%56.282.8-26.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Nadezhda W141816856
Samara W171813654
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