Navy faces Hampton in the NCAA on 14 November 2026, with the model designating Navy as the clear favourite because of their 3-1 season record, 72.0 points per game, and 68.2 points allowed per game, compared with Hampton's 1-2 record, 61.0 points per game and 68.7 points allowed per game; the Pythia model gives Navy an 87% chance of winning and projects a 76-63 score, a 139.1 total, and an 85% probability that Navy will cover the -1.5 spread, while the over on the 138.5 line has a 51% chance. Navy has been dominant at home, going 3-0 with 83.0 points per game and 60.7 points allowed, and won three of their last five games, including 81-76 over Penn, 102-46 over Central Penn, and 66-60 over Delaware State; Hampton has struggled on the road, going 0-2 with 58.0 points per game and 75.0 points allowed, and has only one win in five games, a 67-56 victory over Newport Apprentice, with recent losses to George Washington and Georgia Tech. The projected 76-63 outcome reflects Navy's stronger offensive and defensive numbers and the model's high confidence in a decisive win.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Navy winWon
86.9%fair 1.15
Best odds1.88
Implied51.2%
Edge+35.7pp
Hampton winLost
13.1%fair 7.62
Best odds2.02
Implied48.8%
Edge-35.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 22:25 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Navy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 132Actual: Under 132
Over 132
67.1%
@ 1.47+3.6pp
Under 132
32.9%
@ 2.55-3.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Over/Under 137 · main lineActual: Under 137
Over 137
55.0%
@ 1.95+5.2pp
Under 137
45.0%
@ 1.90-5.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 142Actual: Under 142
Over 142
42.5%
@ 2.70+8.1pp
Under 142
57.5%
@ 1.41-8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.70
Under
Bet365
1.41
📊 3. Team Totals
Navy total 65.5Actual: Navy under 65.5
Over 65.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
Under 65.5
no forecast
@ 2.55
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.37
Navy total 70 · main lineActual: Navy under 70
Over 70
73.4%
@ 1.87+24.0pp
Under 70
26.6%
@ 1.85-24.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Navy total 74Actual: Navy under 74
Over 74
58.2%
Under 74
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hampton total 64Actual: Hampton under 64
Over 64
46.0%
Under 64
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hampton total 68 · main lineActual: Hampton under 68
Over 68
30.6%
@ 1.85-19.4pp
Under 68
69.4%
@ 1.85+19.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
Hampton total 72Actual: Hampton under 72
Over 72
18.3%
Under 72
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Navy -4Actual: Hampton +4
NAVY -4
79.9%
@ 2.30+39.6pp
HAMP +4
20.1%
@ 1.55-39.6pp
Best 5 market prices
NAVY
Bet365
2.30
HAMP
Bet365
1.55
Spread Navy -1 · main lineActual: Navy -1
NAVY -1
86.7%
@ 1.90+36.3pp
HAMP +1
13.3%
@ 1.93-36.3pp
Best 5 market prices
NAVY
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.83
SBO
1.81
1xBet
1.80
HAMP
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
Spread Navy +2Actual: Navy +2
NAVY +2
89.8%
@ 1.69+33.2pp
HAMP -2
10.2%
@ 2.20-33.2pp
Best 5 market prices
NAVY
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.62
HAMP
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
2.15
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
NavyHampton
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Navy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Navy win
NAVY win
no forecast
@ 1.85
HAMP win
no forecast
@ 1.95
2nd half Spread Navy -1.5 · main lineActual: Navy -1.5
NAVY -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.07
HAMP +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
2nd half Over/Under 71.5 · main lineActual: Under 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Navy (regulation)
NAVY
no forecast
@ 1.91
Draw
no forecast
@ 16.50
HAMP
no forecast
@ 2.02
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Navy -3
82.2%
2.19
Pinnacle
2.28
Bet365
2.10
-
-
-
+40.3pp
Lost
Navy -3.5
80.4%
2.24
Pinnacle
2.38
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.15
-
-
+40.2pp
Lost
Navy -7
70.7%
3.00
Bet365
3.00
-
-
-
-
+39.7pp
Lost
Navy -4
79.9%
2.30
Bet365
2.30
-
-
-
-
+39.6pp
Lost
Navy -6
73.9%
2.70
Bet365
2.70
-
-
-
-
+39.6pp
Lost
Navy -5
77.0%
2.50
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
-
+39.5pp
Lost
Navy -2.5
82.6%
2.09
Pinnacle
2.18
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.05
-
-
+38.7pp
Lost
Navy -2
84.9%
1.98
Pinnacle
2.07
Marathon Bet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.93
1xBet
1.91
+38.7pp
Push
Navy -5.5
74.7%
2.55
Betano
2.55
Bet365
2.55
-
-
-
+38.3pp
Lost
Navy -6.5
71.6%
2.76
Betano
2.77
Bet365
2.75
-
-
-
+38.2pp
Lost
Navy -4.5
77.7%
2.33
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.32
-
-
-
+38.1pp
Lost
Navy (regulation)
85.2%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.88
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.81
-
-
+36.9pp
Won
Navy -1.5
85.3%
1.91
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.97
Marathon Bet
1.93
Betano
1.90
SBO
1.88
+36.5pp
Won
Navy -1
86.7%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.86
Bet365
1.83
SBO
1.81
1xBet
1.80
+36.3pp
Won
Navy win
86.9%
1.80
Pinnacle
1.88
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.82
1xBet
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
+35.7pp
Won
Navy +1
88.0%
1.75
Pinnacle
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.74
Bet365
1.71
-
-
+34.8pp
Won
Navy +1.5
88.2%
1.70
Pinnacle
1.75
Bet365
1.68
Betano
1.67
-
-
+33.5pp
Won
Navy +2
89.8%
1.66
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
+33.2pp
Won
Navy +2.5
90.0%
1.56
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
+31.1pp
Won
Navy +3
91.1%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
-
+30.7pp
Won
Navy +3.5
91.2%
1.50
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+29.3pp
Won
Navy +4
92.4%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+28.2pp
Won
Navy over 69.5
74.3%
1.93
Pinnacle
2.02
Betano
1.98
BetVictor
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.80
+27.5pp
Lost
Navy +4.5
92.5%
1.42
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+27.2pp
Won
Navy over 70.5
71.0%
2.10
Pinnacle
2.14
Betano
2.07
-
-
-
+27.0pp
Lost
Navy +5
93.5%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+26.5pp
Won
Navy +5.5
93.6%
1.35
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+25.4pp
Won
Navy +6
94.5%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+25.0pp
Won
Navy over 70
73.4%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
+24.0pp
Lost
Navy +6.5
94.5%
1.31
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
+23.5pp
Won
Navy +7.5
95.4%
1.25
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
-
+21.4pp
Won
Navy +8.5
96.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+19.9pp
Won
Hampton under 69.5
73.7%
1.66
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.62
-
-
-
+18.4pp
Won
Hampton under 68.5
70.5%
1.81
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
+18.0pp
Won
Hampton under 71.5
79.6%
1.46
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+16.6pp
Won
Hampton under 70.5
76.8%
1.52
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+16.3pp
Won
Hampton under 73.5
84.6%
1.33
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Won
Hampton under 72.5
82.2%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+14.5pp
Won
Navy +13.5
98.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Won
Hampton under 75.5
88.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+12.4pp
Won
Hampton under 74.5
86.7%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
Hampton under 77.5
91.8%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+10.3pp
Won
Navy +18.5
99.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
Hampton under 76.5
90.3%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Hampton under 79.5
94.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
Overtime: no
97.3%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
Navy +23.5
99.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Hampton under 78.5
93.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Hampton under 80.5
95.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Over 129.5
72.1%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Lost
Over 130
71.5%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Lost
Over 129
73.6%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Lost
Over 128.5
74.1%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Lost
Over 126.5
78.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Lost
Under 163.5
93.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Over 121.5
86.0%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Lost
Under 161.5
91.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Under 158.5
88.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
Over 123.5
83.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Lost
Under 156.5
85.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
Under 153.5
81.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
Navy under 88.5
89.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
Under 148.5
72.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
Hampton over 51.5
87.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Won
Hampton over 52.5
85.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-6.2pp
Won
Navy under 86.5
85.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.6pp
Won
Under 151.5
77.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
Hampton over 53.5
82.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-7.8pp
Won
Navy under 85.5
83.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.0pp
Won
Hampton over 54.5
80.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-9.4pp
Won
Navy under 84.5
80.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-9.9pp
Won
Hampton over 55.5
77.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-11.6pp
Won
Hampton +21.5
78.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-12.2pp
Won
Navy under 83.5
77.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-13.1pp
Won
Hampton over 56.5
74.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-13.3pp
Lost
Navy under 82.5
74.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-14.2pp
Won
Hampton over 57.5
70.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-15.2pp
Lost
Navy under 81.5
71.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-17.5pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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