Navy hosts Penn on 11 November 2026 in an NCAA matchup that the Pythia model deems a clear favourite for the Midshipmen, assigning a 75% chance of victory largely because of their 2-1 record and 69.0 points per game compared with Penn's 1-1 record and 74.0 points per game; Navy's 84.0 points per game at home and 53.0 points allowed at home further boost the model's confidence. Navy has won both of its home games, posting a 2-0 record with 84.0 points per game and 53.0 points allowed, and has won three of its last five games, including a 102-46 win over Central Penn and a 66-60 win over Delaware State, though they suffered a 39-91 loss to George Washington away. Penn, meanwhile, has gone 0-1 on the road, allowing 112.0 points in a 70-112 loss to Illinois, and has won one of its last five games, a 78-65 win over Howard at home. The teams have met once before, with Navy winning 86-78 on 29 November 2024. Pythia projects a 76-68 score for the game, a total of 144.2 points, a 9.5-point home line that Navy has a 93% chance to cover, and a 147.5 total with a 41% chance of the over, while the overtime probability sits at 4%.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Navy winWon
75.2%fair 1.33
Best odds3.60
Implied26.9%
Edge+48.2pp
Penn winLost
24.8%fair 4.02
Best odds1.32
Implied73.1%
Edge-48.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 14:18 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Navy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 141.5Actual: Over 141.5
Over 141.5
56.0%
@ 1.50-10.0pp
Under 141.5
44.0%
@ 3.15+10.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.32
Under
Bet365
3.15
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 146.5 · main lineActual: Over 146.5
Over 146.5
43.8%
@ 1.93-5.5pp
Under 146.5
56.2%
@ 1.95+5.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.91
BetVictor
1.88
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 151.5Actual: Over 151.5
Over 151.5
32.3%
@ 2.50-8.0pp
Under 151.5
67.7%
@ 1.64+8.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.12
Under
Bet365
1.64
Betano
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
Navy total 64.5Actual: Navy over 64.5
Over 64.5
no forecast
@ 1.35
Under 64.5
no forecast
@ 3.15
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.32
Under
Bet365
3.15
Betano
2.77
Navy total 69 · main lineActual: Navy over 69
Over 69
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under 69
no forecast
@ 1.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Navy total 73Actual: Navy over 73
Over 73
62.0%
Under 73
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penn total 74.5Actual: Penn over 74.5
Over 74.5
26.9%
@ 1.69-28.5pp
Under 74.5
73.1%
@ 2.50+28.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Under
1xBet
2.50
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.22
Pinnacle
2.10
Penn total 78.5 · main lineActual: Penn under 78.5
Over 78.5
16.0%
@ 2.07-33.6pp
Under 78.5
84.0%
@ 1.88+33.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.07
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.67
Penn total 82.5Actual: Penn under 82.5
Over 82.5
no forecast
@ 3.15
Under 82.5
no forecast
@ 1.32
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.15
Betano
2.90
Under
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.32
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Navy +4.5Actual: Navy +4.5
NAVY +4.5
84.6%
@ 2.38+44.5pp
PENN -4.5
15.4%
@ 1.59-44.5pp
Best 5 market prices
NAVY
Pinnacle
2.38
Betano
2.30
Bet365
2.30
PENN
Pinnacle
1.59
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.53
Spread Navy +7.5 · main lineActual: Navy +7.5
NAVY +7.5
90.0%
@ 1.95+40.1pp
PENN -7.5
10.0%
@ 1.92-40.1pp
Best 5 market prices
NAVY
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
PENN
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
Spread Navy +10.5Actual: Navy +10.5
NAVY +10.5
93.6%
@ 1.76+34.7pp
PENN -10.5
6.4%
@ 2.40-34.7pp
Best 5 market prices
NAVY
Marathon Be
1.76
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.54
PENN
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.00
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
NavyPenn
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Navy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Navy win
NAVY win
no forecast
@ 2.62
PENN win
no forecast
@ 1.50
2nd half Spread Navy +3.5 · main lineActual: Navy +3.5
NAVY +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
PENN -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half Over/Under 77.5 · main lineActual: Over 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Navy 2nd half total 36.5 · main lineActual: Navy over 36.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.78
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
Penn 2nd half total 40.5 · main lineActual: Penn over 40.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half Spread Navy +2.5Actual: Navy +2.5
NAVY +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
PENN -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half Spread Navy +4.5Actual: Navy +4.5
NAVY +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
PENN -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Navy (regulation)
NAVY
no forecast
@ 2.67
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
PENN
no forecast
@ 1.53
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Navy win
75.2%
3.47
Bet365
3.60
Pinnacle
3.58
WilliamHill
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
1xBet
3.47
+48.2pp
Won
Navy +1
76.8%
3.25
Bet365
3.25
-
-
-
-
+47.9pp
Won
Navy (regulation)
72.7%
3.58
Marathon Bet
3.62
Betano
3.55
-
-
-
+47.7pp
Won
Navy +2
79.6%
2.90
Bet365
2.90
-
-
-
-
+47.5pp
Won
Navy +3
82.0%
2.65
Bet365
2.65
-
-
-
-
+46.7pp
Won
Navy +5
86.3%
2.31
Pinnacle
2.40
Bet365
2.22
-
-
-
+46.6pp
Won
Navy +4
84.2%
2.50
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
-
+46.6pp
Won
Navy -1.5
72.8%
3.50
Betano
3.50
-
-
-
-
+46.5pp
Won
Navy +2.5
80.2%
2.74
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.72
-
-
-
+46.4pp
Won
Navy +1.5
77.2%
3.00
Bet365
3.05
Betano
2.95
-
-
-
+46.3pp
Won
Navy +3.5
82.3%
2.52
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.50
-
-
-
+45.5pp
Won
Navy +5.5
86.6%
2.19
Pinnacle
2.32
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.12
-
-
+45.3pp
Won
Navy +6
88.2%
2.07
Pinnacle
2.23
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.94
-
-
+45.2pp
Won
Navy +4.5
84.6%
2.33
Pinnacle
2.38
Betano
2.30
Bet365
2.30
-
-
+44.5pp
Won
Navy +6.5
88.4%
1.98
Pinnacle
2.13
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.96
Marathon Bet
1.88
+43.3pp
Won
Navy +7
89.8%
1.97
Pinnacle
2.03
SBO
1.98
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.94
-
+42.5pp
Won
Navy +7.5
90.0%
1.91
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.88
+40.1pp
Won
Navy +8
91.2%
1.81
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.82
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
-
+38.9pp
Won
Navy +8.5
91.4%
1.78
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.78
BetVictor
1.78
SBO
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.76
+36.8pp
Won
Penn under 79
85.8%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.86
-
-
-
-
+36.1pp
Won
Penn under 79.5
86.1%
1.76
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.53
-
+36.0pp
Won
Navy +9
92.5%
1.76
SBO
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.66
-
+35.9pp
Won
Navy +10
93.6%
1.70
Marathon Bet
1.82
SBO
1.78
Pinnacle
1.64
Bet365
1.57
-
+35.2pp
Won
Navy +10.5
93.6%
1.65
Marathon Bet
1.76
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.54
-
+34.7pp
Won
Navy +9.5
92.6%
1.74
1xBet
1.91
SBO
1.88
BetVictor
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.70
Betano
1.65
+34.2pp
Won
Penn under 78.5
84.0%
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.67
-
+33.6pp
Won
Penn under 78
83.6%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
-
+33.4pp
Won
Navy +11
94.5%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+31.5pp
Won
Navy +11.5
94.6%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+31.5pp
Won
Penn under 77
81.1%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+31.4pp
Won
Navy +12.5
95.4%
1.40
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+29.3pp
Won
Penn under 76.5
79.0%
2.04
Bet365
2.50
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.89
BetVictor
1.85
-
+29.0pp
Won
Penn under 77.5
81.6%
1.82
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.78
+28.9pp
Won
Navy +12
95.3%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+28.9pp
Won
Penn under 75.5
76.2%
2.01
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
1.98
-
-
-
+28.7pp
Lost
Penn under 74.5
73.1%
2.29
1xBet
2.50
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.22
Pinnacle
2.10
-
+28.5pp
Lost
Navy +13.5
96.0%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+27.3pp
Won
Navy +13
96.0%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+26.2pp
Won
Navy +14.5
96.6%
1.29
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+25.2pp
Won
Penn under 80.5
88.1%
1.45
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.44
-
-
+24.6pp
Won
Navy +14
96.6%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+24.4pp
Won
Navy +16.5
97.6%
1.27
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+24.4pp
Won
Navy over 70.5
70.6%
1.96
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.03
Bet365
1.80
-
-
+24.2pp
Won
Penn under 81.5
89.8%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+23.9pp
Won
Navy +16
97.6%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+23.5pp
Won
Navy +15.5
97.1%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+23.3pp
Won
Navy +15
97.1%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+22.1pp
Won
Navy +18
98.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+22.1pp
Won
Navy +17
97.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+21.8pp
Won
Navy +18.5
98.3%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+20.5pp
Won
Navy +19.5
98.5%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+19.0pp
Won
Navy +17.5
97.9%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+18.4pp
Won
Navy +24.5
99.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
Navy +22.5
99.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+10.8pp
Won
Under 153
71.3%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Lost
Under 154
73.3%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Lost
Under 155
75.3%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Lost
Under 156
77.2%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Lost
Under 155.5
75.8%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Lost
Under 154.5
73.9%
1.41
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Lost
Under 153.5
71.9%
1.44
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Lost
Under 158.5
81.0%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Under 163.5
87.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Under 173.5
95.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Overtime: no
95.8%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.03
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+4.2pp
-
Under 168.5
92.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Under 171.5
94.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Under 156.5
77.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Lost
Under 166.5
91.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Under 161.5
85.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Over 121.5
91.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
Over 126.5
85.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
Over 123.5
89.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
Navy under 86.5
85.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Won
Over 131.5
77.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
Over 128.5
82.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-7.3pp
Won
Navy under 84.5
80.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-10.4pp
Won
Penn over 58.5
82.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-10.8pp
Won
Over 133.5
74.0%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-12.1pp
Won
Penn over 59.5
80.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-13.5pp
Won
Navy under 81.5
71.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-14.0pp
Won
Navy under 82.5
74.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-14.6pp
Won
Penn over 60.5
77.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-14.9pp
Won
Penn over 61.5
74.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-17.3pp
Won
Penn over 62.5
71.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-19.5pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.