Penn faces Howard in the NCAA on 9 November 2026, with the model designating Penn as the clear favourite, assigning an 84% chance of victory largely because Penn's single game this season has produced a 70.0 points per game average while allowing 112.0, a stark contrast to Howard's 78.0 points per game and 77.5 allowed across two games; Penn's record of 0-1 sits at 427th, whereas Howard's 1-1 record places them 237th. Penn's last five games show three wins and two losses, including a 70-112 defeat to Illinois and a 88-84 win over Yale, while Howard's recent five mirror that 3-2 split with a 94-83 win over Alcorn State and losses to Yale and Michigan. In the two meetings between the clubs, Penn has won both, most recently 78-68 on 11 December 2023. The model projects a 84-72 score, 155.7 total points, and an 84% probability that Penn will win; the home line of -6.0 gives a 70% chance Penn will cover, while the 157.5 total has a 45% over probability and a 3% chance of overtime. Penn's recent victory over Yale at 88-84 suggests they will maintain their edge.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Penn winWon
84.3%fair 1.19
Best odds1.42
Implied68.4%
Edge+16.0pp
Howard winLost
15.7%fair 6.39
Best odds3.10
Implied31.6%
Edge-16.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Penn) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 154.5Actual: Under 154.5
Over 154.5
52.4%
@ 1.72-2.7pp
Under 154.5
47.6%
@ 2.11+2.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.72
1xBet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Marathon Be
1.68
Bet365
1.66
Under
Pinnacle
2.11
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.03
Betano
2.02
Marathon Be
1.91
Over/Under 159.5 · main lineActual: Under 159.5
Over 159.5
40.3%
@ 2.22-9.2pp
Under 159.5
59.7%
@ 1.88+9.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.22
Betano
2.18
Pinnacle
1.92
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Marathon Be
1.63
Over/Under 164.5Actual: Under 164.5
Over 164.5
29.1%
@ 3.15-2.1pp
Under 164.5
70.9%
@ 1.37+2.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.15
Betano
2.80
Under
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.32
📊 3. Team Totals
Penn total 78Push
Over 78
72.0%
Under 78
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penn total 82 · main lineActual: Penn under 82
Over 82
56.6%
@ 1.87+6.9pp
Under 82
43.4%
@ 1.85-6.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Penn total 86Actual: Penn under 86
Over 86
40.0%
Under 86
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Howard total 71Actual: Howard under 71
Over 71
53.8%
Under 71
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Howard total 75 · main lineActual: Howard under 75
Over 75
37.7%
@ 1.85-12.4pp
Under 75
62.3%
@ 1.86+12.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Howard total 79Actual: Howard under 79
Over 79
23.9%
Under 79
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Penn -8.5Actual: Penn -8.5
PENN -8.5
60.6%
@ 2.27+19.1pp
HOWA +8.5
39.4%
@ 1.65-19.1pp
Best 5 market prices
PENN
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.22
1xBet
2.10
HOWA
1xBet
1.65
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.55
Spread Penn -5.5 · main lineActual: Penn -5.5
PENN -5.5
70.9%
@ 1.88+19.9pp
HOWA +5.5
29.1%
@ 2.00-19.9pp
Best 5 market prices
PENN
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
HOWA
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.90
Betano
1.90
Spread Penn -2.5Actual: Penn -2.5
PENN -2.5
79.6%
@ 1.52+18.1pp
HOWA +2.5
20.4%
@ 2.50-18.1pp
Best 5 market prices
PENN
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
HOWA
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.32
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
PennHoward
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Penn) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Penn win
PENN win
no forecast
@ 1.60
HOWA win
no forecast
@ 2.35
2nd half Spread Penn -2.5 · main lineActual: Penn -2.5
PENN -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
HOWA +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half Over/Under 80.5 · main lineActual: Over 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Penn (regulation)
PENN
no forecast
@ 1.65
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.00
HOWA
no forecast
@ 2.40
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Penn -5.5
70.9%
1.83
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
+19.9pp
Won
Penn -5
73.2%
1.75
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathon Bet
1.76
Bet365
1.71
-
-
+19.9pp
Won
Penn -4
76.4%
1.64
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
+19.3pp
Won
Penn -3.5
77.1%
1.60
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
+19.2pp
Won
Penn -4.5
74.1%
1.71
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.73
1xBet
1.70
Marathon Bet
1.70
Bet365
1.66
+18.7pp
Won
Howard under 77.5
70.6%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
+18.2pp
Won
Penn (regulation)
82.4%
1.42
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.42
Marathon Bet
1.41
-
-
+18.2pp
Won
Penn -2.5
79.6%
1.51
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+18.1pp
Won
Penn -3
79.1%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+17.8pp
Won
Penn -1.5
82.6%
1.42
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+17.7pp
Won
Penn -2
82.0%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Won
Penn -1
84.1%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+16.3pp
Won
Penn win
84.3%
1.39
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
WilliamHill
1.40
Marathon Bet
1.39
Bet365
1.38
+16.0pp
Won
Penn +1.5
85.8%
1.31
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Won
Penn +1
85.6%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+14.8pp
Won
Penn +2.5
87.9%
1.27
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+14.6pp
Won
Howard under 79.5
76.9%
1.47
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+14.4pp
Won
Penn +3.5
89.4%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Won
Penn +2
87.7%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+12.9pp
Won
Howard under 78.5
73.9%
1.48
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
Howard under 80.5
79.7%
1.33
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+10.8pp
Won
Penn over 77.5
73.0%
1.45
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
-
+10.4pp
Won
Penn over 76.5
76.2%
1.37
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Penn +8.5
95.1%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Penn over 75.5
79.2%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
Penn +13.5
97.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
Penn over 74.5
81.9%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.9%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Penn over 72.5
86.6%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Penn +18.5
99.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Under 165.5
72.9%
1.36
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Penn under 102.5
97.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Under 166.5
74.9%
1.31
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Under 166
74.4%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Under 182.5
94.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Under 165
72.4%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Under 181.5
94.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Penn under 100.5
95.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Penn under 101.5
96.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Penn under 98.5
93.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Penn over 73.5
84.4%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Under 164.5
70.9%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Under 177.5
90.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Under 167.5
76.8%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Penn under 93.5
84.1%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Under 172.5
84.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Under 176.5
89.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Over 131.5
93.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Under 164
70.3%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Penn under 96.5
90.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Under 171.5
83.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Over 132.5
92.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.0pp
Won
Howard over 57.5
92.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Howard over 58.5
90.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Over 136.5
87.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Penn under 94.5
86.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Penn under 91.5
78.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
Over 137.5
86.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
Howard over 59.5
89.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Howard over 60.5
87.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
Penn under 92.5
81.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
Over 141.5
80.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
Over 146.5
71.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-4.3pp
Lost
Penn under 90.5
75.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Won
Over 142.5
78.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-5.6pp
Won
Howard over 62.5
82.6%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Howard over 61.5
85.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Howard +21.5
81.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Won
Howard over 64.5
77.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-8.5pp
Won
Howard over 63.5
79.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-9.1pp
Won
Howard over 66.5
70.5%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-10.4pp
Lost
Howard over 65.5
73.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-12.2pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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