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Niagara River vs Guelph Nighthawks Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 16 May 2025
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 98-94
28-24 29-26 23-24 18-20
Position#3
Record-
FormLWWWW
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Niagara River 🏆
Canada
vs
Guelph Nighthawks
Canada
Position#2
Record1-0
FormLWWLW
Points / game86.0
Allowed / game84.0
CanadaCEBL· Meridian Centre
Other2025
Meetings · Niagara River v Guelph Nighthawks
16 May 2025
NIAG98
GUEL94
04 Jul 2024
NIAG109
GUEL89
23 Jun 2023
NIAG99
GUEL86
06 Aug 2022
NIAG99
GUEL78
09 Jul 2022
NIAG101
GUEL88
30 Jul 2021
NIAG81
GUEL92
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Niagara River winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Guelph Nighthawks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Niagara RiverCanadaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRiver
Date
Competition
Ottawa Blackjacks
#6
W
110-86
110
86
+24
103avg 85
H06/07
CEBL
Scarborough Shooting Stars
#4
W
98-77
98
77
+21
96avg 85
A10/07
CEBL
Montreal Alliance
#10
W
83-77
83
77
+6
73avg 85
H11/07
CEBL
Edmonton Stingers
#3
W
105-104
105
104
+1
97avg 85
H14/07
CEBL
Brampton Honey Badgers
#9
W
80-71
80
71
+9
71avg 85
H17/07
CEBL
Ottawa Blackjacks
#6
L
113-122
113
122
-9
108avg 85
A20/07
CEBL
Ottawa Blackjacks
#6
W
109-97
109
97
+12
102avg 85
H27/07
CEBL
Ottawa Blackjacks
#6
W
94-91
94
91
+3
88avg 85
H04/08
CEBL
Montreal Alliance
#10
W
78-75
78
75
+3
64avg 85
H10/08
CEBL
Fraser Valley Bandits
#2
W
97-95
97
95
+2
88avg 85
A11/08
CEBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-24
37-22
32-19
19-21
19-19
32-17
22-13
25-28
19-23
24-21
19-19
21-14
24-18
28-24
24-36
29-26
19-10
22-21
23-16
16-24
30-34
34-24
25-36
24-28
27-26
29-26
29-24
24-21
28-19
21-29
18-29
27-14
16-11
22-25
16-23
24-16
23-20
21-26
27-16
26-33
186.2Avg total
96.7Scored
89.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)96.789.5186.2+7.290%
Last 5 (5)98.296.0194.2+2.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀no games
vs Similar (13)92.288.0180.2+4.269%
vs Weaker (17)92.485.6178.1+6.876%
This opponent (Guelph Nighthawks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Guelph NighthawksCanadaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNighthawks
Date
Competition
Fraser Valley Bandits
#2
W
97-94
97
94
+3
81avg 84
H12/07
CEBL
Saskatchewan Rattlers
#8
W
95-87
95
87
+8
90avg 84
A14/07
CEBL
Montreal Alliance
#10
W
90-80
90
80
+10
84avg 84
H20/07
CEBL
Winnipeg Sea Bears
#7
L
104-111
104
111
-7
102avg 84
A24/07
CEBL
Winnipeg Sea Bears
#7
W
87-83
87
83
+4
78avg 84
H26/07
CEBL
Scarborough Shooting Stars
#4
L
82-93
82
93
-11
65avg 84
A28/07
CEBL
Winnipeg Sea Bears
#7
W
84-82
84
82
+2
74avg 84
H03/08
CEBL
Edmonton Stingers
#3
W
78-69
78
69
+9
77avg 84
A05/08
CEBL
Fraser Valley Bandits
#2
L
87-89
87
89
-2
71avg 84
A09/08
CEBL
Edmonton Stingers
#4
W
86-84
86
84
+2
no box
A11/05
CEBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-18
20-32
25-22
22-22
24-23
20-26
23-22
28-16
11-17
27-17
25-22
27-24
33-29
31-22
23-31
17-29
23-20
30-27
17-24
17-12
15-31
16-15
24-19
27-28
28-12
18-24
20-22
18-24
22-21
17-18
24-15
15-15
23-20
18-27
26-23
20-19
23-23
22-21
13-22
28-18
176.2Avg total
89.0Scored
87.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)86.084.0170.0+2.0100%
Season at homeno games
Season away (1)86.084.0170.0+2.0100%
Last 10 (10)89.087.2176.2+1.870%
Last 5 (5)83.483.4166.8+0.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)80.888.2169.0-7.525%
vs Similar (13)84.482.4166.8+2.054%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)94.885.8180.7+9.085%
This opponent (Niagara River) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.3+2.3Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: +3.5+3.5Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: +0.4+0.4Q3: -0.2-0.2Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: +1.2+1.2
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.3+2.3Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: +3.5+3.5Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: +0.4+0.4Q3: -0.2-0.2Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: +1.2+1.2
Niagara RiverGuelph Nighthawks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Niagara RiverLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ottawa Blackjacks
#6
W
59-46
59
46
+13
H06/07
CEBL
Scarborough Shooting Stars
#4
W
51-36
51
36
+15
A10/07
CEBL
Montreal Alliance
#10
L
43-44
43
44
-1
H11/07
CEBL
Edmonton Stingers
#3
W
52-42
52
42
+10
H14/07
CEBL
Brampton Honey Badgers
#9
W
41-31
41
31
+10
H17/07
CEBL
Ottawa Blackjacks
#6
W
64-58
64
58
+6
A20/07
CEBL
Ottawa Blackjacks
#6
W
56-52
56
52
+4
H27/07
CEBL
Ottawa Blackjacks
#6
W
49-48
49
48
+1
H04/08
CEBL
Montreal Alliance
#10
W
38-36
38
36
+2
H10/08
CEBL
Fraser Valley Bandits
#2
L
44-46
44
46
-2
A11/08
CEBL
93.6Avg total
49.7Scored
43.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.343.089.3+3.363%-
Last 30 at home (16)48.241.489.6+6.888%-
Last 30 away (14)44.144.888.9-0.636%-
Last 10 (10)49.743.993.6+5.880%-
Last 5 (5)50.248.098.2+2.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀no games
vs Similar (13)45.742.888.5+2.854%-
vs Weaker (17)46.843.189.9+3.671%-
This opponent (Guelph Nighthawks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Guelph NighthawksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Fraser Valley Bandits
#2
D
50-50
50
50
+0
H12/07
CEBL
Saskatchewan Rattlers
#8
L
44-49
44
49
-5
A14/07
CEBL
Montreal Alliance
#10
W
38-34
38
34
+4
H20/07
CEBL
Winnipeg Sea Bears
#7
W
64-51
64
51
+13
A24/07
CEBL
Winnipeg Sea Bears
#7
W
53-47
53
47
+6
H26/07
CEBL
Scarborough Shooting Stars
#4
L
31-46
31
46
-15
A28/07
CEBL
Winnipeg Sea Bears
#7
W
46-36
46
36
+10
H03/08
CEBL
Edmonton Stingers
#3
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A05/08
CEBL
Fraser Valley Bandits
#2
L
41-47
41
47
-6
A09/08
CEBL
Edmonton Stingers
#4
W
45-44
45
44
+1
A11/05
CEBL
89.4Avg total
45.1Scored
44.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.143.486.5-0.347%-
Last 30 at home (14)42.540.382.8+2.250%-
Last 30 away (16)43.646.189.7-2.644%-
Last 10 (10)45.144.389.4+0.850%-
Last 5 (5)40.442.482.8-2.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)41.246.087.2-4.80%-
vs Similar (13)39.842.782.5-2.838%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)46.843.390.2+3.569%-
This opponent (Niagara River) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Niagara Rivertheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Niagara River: 96.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.4 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.4 points a game
51%
33%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.024.5
55.7%
50.7%49.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.410.8
36.7%
34.3%32.4
🏀 Free throws21.915.1
68.9%
72.4%15.1
They take 73.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Guelph Nighthawkstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Guelph Nighthawks: 88.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.9 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.4 points a game
51%
33%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.020.6
44.8%
50.7%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.910.3
33.3%
34.3%30.9
🏀 Free throws21.915.9
72.6%
72.4%15.9
They take 76.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 May 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Niagara River
WWWWLWWWWW
Guelph Nighthawks
WLWWLWLWWW
#3
League position
#2
+10.1
Net rating
+1.4
116.4
Offensive rating
101.9
106.3
Defensive rating
100.5
55.4%
Effective FG%
46.9%
51.4%
Opp. effective FG%
51.9%
15.4%
Turnover %
17.9%
30.9%
Off. rebound %
32.9%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.28
36.7%
3-point %
33.3%
56.9%
Assist %
61.8%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence116.4 · 101.9Defence106.3 · 100.5Shooting55.4% · 46.9%3-point %36.7% · 33.3%Ball care15.4% · 17.9%Off. rebounds30.9% · 32.9%Free throws0.30 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)90% · 70%
■ Niagara River   ■ Guelph Nighthawks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Niagara River wins
2
Guelph Nighthawks wins
DateGameScore
04/07/24Niagara River v Guelph Nighthawks109-89
23/06/23Niagara River v Guelph Nighthawks99-86
31/05/23Guelph Nighthawks v Niagara River85-82
06/08/22Niagara River v Guelph Nighthawks99-78
09/07/22Niagara River v Guelph Nighthawks101-88
31/05/22Guelph Nighthawks v Niagara River84-95
01/08/21Guelph Nighthawks v Niagara River69-89
30/07/21Niagara River v Guelph Nighthawks81-92
Niagara Riverlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/08/24AFraser Valley Bandits97-95
10/08/24HMontreal Alliance78-75
04/08/24HOttawa Blackjacks94-91
27/07/24HOttawa Blackjacks109-97
20/07/24AOttawa Blackjacks113-122
17/07/24HBrampton Honey Badgers80-71
14/07/24HEdmonton Stingers105-104
11/07/24HMontreal Alliance83-77
10/07/24AScarborough Shooting Stars98-77
06/07/24HOttawa Blackjacks110-86
Guelph Nighthawkslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/05/25AEdmonton Stingers86-84
09/08/24AFraser Valley Bandits87-89
05/08/24AEdmonton Stingers78-69
03/08/24HWinnipeg Sea Bears84-82
28/07/24AScarborough Shooting Stars82-93
26/07/24HWinnipeg Sea Bears87-83
24/07/24AWinnipeg Sea Bears104-111
20/07/24HMontreal Alliance90-80
14/07/24ASaskatchewan Rattlers95-87
12/07/24HFraser Valley Bandits97-94

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Niagara River
CEBL 2025
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Guelph Nighthawks
CEBL 2025
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
Home--
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1-1
Win %100%-100%
Points / game86.0-86.0
Allowed / game84.0-84.0
Point differential+2.0-+2.0
Avg total170.0-170.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%-0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Fraser Valley Bandits110100%105.065.0+40.0
2 Guelph Nighthawks110100%86.084.0+2.0
3 Edmonton Stingers1010%84.086.0-2.0
4 Saskatchewan Rattlers1010%65.0105.0-40.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Niagara River2829231898
Guelph Nighthawks2426242094
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