PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Northern Colorado faces South Dakota St. in an NCAA contest on 14 November 2026, with the model designating Northern Colorado as the favourite because of their 2-1 record, 94.0 points per game and 68.7 allowed, contrasted with South Dakota St.'s 3-0 record, 73.3 points per game and 61.3 allowed, giving the model an 87% chance for the home side and 13% for the visitor; the projected score is 81-69 and the total is 150.1, with a 3% overtime probability. Northern Colorado has won both of its home games, scoring 109.5 points and allowing 58.0, and has won three of its last five games, including a 102-52 victory over Northern New Mexico at home, a 63-90 loss to Arizona State away, and a 117-64 win over Colorado College at home. South Dakota St. has won all three of its road games, scoring 68.0 points and allowing 66.0, and has won three of its last five games, including 81-69 over Valparaiso at home, 71-49 over Briar Cliff at home and 68-66 over Kansas State away. In their only previous meeting on 14 November 2024, Northern Colorado defeated South Dakota St. 78-69.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 94.0 | 68.7 | 162.7 | +25.3 | 67% |
| Season at home (2) | 109.5 | 58.0 | 167.5 | +51.5 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 63.0 | 90.0 | 153.0 | -27.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 85.4 | 72.8 | 158.2 | +12.6 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 91.2 | 71.6 | 162.8 | +19.6 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 63.0 | 90.0 | 153.0 | -27.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar ◀ (12) | 80.2 | 78.7 | 158.8 | +1.5 | 42% |
| vs Weaker (14) | 81.1 | 77.6 | 158.7 | +3.6 | 71% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 73.3 | 61.3 | 134.7 | +12.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (2) | 76.0 | 59.0 | 135.0 | +17.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 68.0 | 66.0 | 134.0 | +2.0 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 73.5 | 70.3 | 143.8 | +3.2 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 71.4 | 67.8 | 139.2 | +3.6 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (8) | 63.0 | 77.4 | 140.4 | -14.4 | 0% |
| vs Similar ◀ (10) | 77.1 | 79.4 | 156.5 | -2.3 | 30% |
| vs Weaker (10) | 82.9 | 66.9 | 149.8 | +16.0 | 90% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.1 | 34.3 | 72.5 | +3.8 | 63% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 40.9 | 31.2 | 72.1 | +9.7 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 35.4 | 37.5 | 72.9 | -2.1 | 47% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.9 | 35.0 | 73.9 | +3.9 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.0 | 31.6 | 68.6 | +5.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 26.0 | 48.0 | 74.0 | -22.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (12) | 34.4 | 36.9 | 71.3 | -2.5 | 42% | - |
| vs Weaker (14) | 39.0 | 34.4 | 73.4 | +4.6 | 79% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.4 | 34.9 | 71.3 | +1.5 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 38.4 | 34.1 | 72.5 | +4.3 | 47% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 34.3 | 35.7 | 70.0 | -1.3 | 40% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.2 | 33.7 | 70.9 | +3.5 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.8 | 32.2 | 72.0 | +7.6 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (8) | 29.4 | 35.5 | 64.9 | -6.1 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (10) | 36.2 | 39.5 | 75.7 | -3.3 | 30% | - |
| vs Weaker (10) | 41.6 | 31.4 | 73.0 | +10.2 | 80% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 15/11/24 | South Dakota St. v Northern Colorado | 69-78 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | H | Northern New Mexico | 102-52 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Arizona State | 63-90 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Colorado College | 117-64 |
| 09/03/26 | A | Montana | 89-95 |
| 03/03/26 | H | Montana | 85-57 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Idaho | 76-67 |
| 27/02/26 | A | East. Washington | 72-82 |
| 22/02/26 | H | Northern Arizona | 78-77 |
| 14/02/26 | H | Portland State | 77-65 |
| 13/02/26 | H | Sacramento State | 95-79 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Valparaiso | 81-69 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Briar Cliff | 71-49 |
| 04/11/26 | A | Kansas State | 68-66 |
| 06/03/26 | A | St. Thomas (Minn.) | 67-80 |
| 28/02/26 | A | South Dakota Coyotes | 70-75 |
| 27/02/26 | A | UMKC | 73-59 |
| 21/02/26 | H | North Dakota | 91-83 |
| 19/02/26 | H | North Dakota St | 66-74 |
| 15/02/26 | A | Oral Roberts | 87-69 |
| 13/02/26 | A | Denver | 61-79 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLW | 67% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 94.0 | 109.5 | 63.0 |
| Allowed / game | 68.7 | 58.0 | 90.0 |
| Point differential | +25.3 | +51.5 | -27.0 |
| Avg total | 162.7 | 167.5 | 153.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | W | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Points / game | 73.3 | 76.0 | 68.0 |
| Allowed / game | 61.3 | 59.0 | 66.0 |
| Point differential | +12.0 | +17.0 | +2.0 |
| Avg total | 134.7 | 135.0 | 134.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | - | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northern Colorado | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 94.0 | 68.7 | +25.3 |
| 2 |  Idaho | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 86.5 | 71.5 | +15.0 |
| 3 |  Montana | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 78.0 | 65.2 | +12.8 |
| 4 |  Sacramento State | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 83.5 | 78.5 | +5.0 |
| 5 |  Portland State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 80.7 | 75.0 | +5.7 |
| 6 |  Montana State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 80.0 | -4.0 |
| 7 |  East. Washington | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 80.5 | 83.5 | -3.0 |
| 8 |  Northern Arizona | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 69.5 | 87.8 | -18.2 |
| 9 |  Weber State | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 72.7 | 96.0 | -23.3 |
| 10 |  Idaho State | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 67.3 | 92.0 | -24.7 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Dakota St. | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 73.3 | 61.3 | +12.0 |
| 2 |  Nebraska O. | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 68.2 | 77.0 | -8.8 |
| 3 |  St. Thomas (Minn.) | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 82.4 | 78.2 | +4.2 |
| 4 |  UMKC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 75.4 | 77.8 | -2.4 |
| 5 |  North Dakota St | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 77.2 | 83.0 | -5.8 |
| 6 |  Oral Roberts | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 73.3 | 68.0 | +5.3 |
| 7 |  North Dakota | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 72.8 | 86.8 | -14.0 |
| 8 |  South Dakota Coyotes | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 84.4 | 82.8 | +1.6 |
| 9 |  Denver | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 60.3 | 71.7 | -11.3 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Colorado | 17 | 29 | 46 |
| South Dakota St. | 28 | 43 | 71 |
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