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Northern Kahu W vs Tokomanawa Queens W Prediction & Stats

Date: Fri 20 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 06:30
Projected 81-82
Projected total 163.2
Scheduled
Position#4
Record3-6
FormWLWLL
Points / game75.3
Allowed / game81.8
Northern Kahu W
New Zealand
Vs
44%
56%
■ NORT 44%■ TOKO 56%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
5.7/10
Above normal
5.5/10
Above normal
Tokomanawa Queens W
New Zealand
Position#3
Record3-6
FormLLWWW
Points / game83.3
Allowed / game81.6
New ZealandTauihi Women· Eventfinda Stadium
Women2026
Meetings · Northern Kahu W v Tokomanawa Queens W
20 Nov 2026
NORT v TOKO
upcoming
12 Nov 2026
NORT71
TOKO88
30 Nov 2025
NORT72
TOKO88
08 Dec 2024
NORT76
TOKO95
14 Nov 2024
NORT67
TOKO76
10 Sep 2023
NORT98
TOKO72
23 Jul 2023
NORT71
TOKO84
27 Aug 2022
NORT62
TOKO71
06 Aug 2022
NORT76
TOKO94
04 Jul 2022
NORT80
TOKO61
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Northern Kahu W will host Tokomanawa Queens W on 20 November 2026 in the Tauihi Women, with the model favouring the Queens who hold a 56% chance of triumph over the Kahu's 44% odds. Both sides finish the season 3-6, the Kahu scoring 75.3 points per game and conceding 81.8, while the Queens average 83.3 points and allow 81.6, placing them third and fourth respectively. At home the Kahu are 2-3, averaging 80.6 points and 85.6 allowed, whereas the Queens are 2-2 on the road, scoring 89.0 and conceding 78.2. The last five outings see the Kahu 2-3, the Queens 3-2, and recent results include a 71-72 loss to Mainland Pouakai W, an 88-71 defeat by the Queens, and a 94-84 win over Mainland Pouakai W for the Kahu, while the Queens have beaten Mid-North Whai W twice and Northern Kahu W once. Historically the Queens lead 6-4 in ten meetings, most recently winning 88-71 on 12 November. The Pythia projects a 81-82 score for a 163.2 total, with a 5% chance of overtime. The Queens' recent road form suggests they will edge the Kahu in this tightly contested fixture.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Northern Kahu W win
43.7%fair 2.29
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Tokomanawa Queens W win
56.3%fair 1.78
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:33 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Northern Kahu WNew ZealandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Tokomanawa Queens W
#2
L
72-88
72
88
-16
69avg 67
H30/11
Tauihi Women
Mid-North Whai W
#5
L
60-81
60
81
-21
43avg 67
A25/09
Tauihi Women
Tokomanawa Queens W
#3
W
75-69
75
69
+6
69avg 67
A27/09
Tauihi Women
Southern Hoiho W
#1
L
66-78
66
78
-12
60avg 67
H04/10
Tauihi Women
Mainland Pouakai W
#2
L
87-94
87
94
-7
84avg 67
H11/10
Tauihi Women
Mid-North Whai W
#5
W
85-84
85
84
+1
82avg 67
H18/10
Tauihi Women
Southern Hoiho W
#1
L
69-86
69
86
-17
64avg 67
A30/10
Tauihi Women
Mainland Pouakai W
#2
W
94-84
94
84
+10
no box
H06/11
Tauihi Women
Tokomanawa Queens W
#3
L
71-88
71
88
-17
no box
H12/11
Tauihi Women
Mainland Pouakai W
#2
L
71-72
71
72
-1
no box
A14/11
Tauihi Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-26
19-20
19-22
14-20
11-19
16-18
19-21
14-23
13-22
31-21
21-10
10-16
11-17
16-18
14-21
25-22
28-31
20-17
19-20
20-26
20-21
14-25
33-18
18-20
17-23
14-13
23-26
15-24
25-16
20-25
19-21
30-22
18-27
13-29
16-16
24-16
17-22
17-17
24-16
13-17
157.4Avg total
75.0Scored
82.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)75.381.8157.1-6.433%
Season at home (5)80.685.6166.2-5.040%
Season away (4)68.877.0145.8-8.225%
Last 10 (10)75.082.4157.4-7.430%
Last 5 (5)78.082.8160.8-4.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)73.284.8158.0-11.716%
vs Similar (7)71.970.0141.9+1.943%
vs Weaker (4)82.277.5159.8+4.850%
This opponent (Tokomanawa Queens W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Tokomanawa Queens WNew ZealandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Mid-North Whai W
#1
L
76-82
76
82
-6
69avg 75
H06/12
Tauihi Women
Northern Kahu W
#4
L
69-75
69
75
-6
61avg 75
H27/09
Tauihi Women
Mainland Pouakai W
#2
L
77-114
77
114
-37
61avg 75
H04/10
Tauihi Women
Southern Hoiho W
#1
L
81-84
81
84
-3
75avg 75
A11/10
Tauihi Women
Mid-North Whai W
#5
L
79-84
79
84
-5
72avg 75
H16/10
Tauihi Women
Mainland Pouakai W
#2
L
90-93
90
93
-3
84avg 75
A23/10
Tauihi Women
Southern Hoiho W
#1
L
81-82
81
82
-1
82avg 75
H01/11
Tauihi Women
Mid-North Whai W
#5
W
97-65
97
65
+32
no box
A08/11
Tauihi Women
Northern Kahu W
#4
W
88-71
88
71
+17
no box
A12/11
Tauihi Women
Mid-North Whai W
#5
W
88-66
88
66
+22
no box
H15/11
Tauihi Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-14
12-20
20-24
16-24
22-13
21-31
10-21
16-10
22-23
21-30
16-22
18-39
21-26
20-19
22-16
18-23
23-18
15-18
23-27
18-21
23-19
16-22
22-26
29-26
20-23
20-21
25-19
16-19
25-15
29-11
25-15
18-24
27-18
29-13
16-16
16-24
24-11
22-18
24-18
18-19
164.2Avg total
82.6Scored
81.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)83.381.6164.9+1.833%
Season at home (5)78.884.2163.0-5.420%
Season away (4)89.078.2167.2+10.850%
Last 10 (10)82.681.6164.2+1.030%
Last 5 (5)88.875.4164.2+13.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)79.287.9167.1-8.625%
vs Similar (13)80.081.7161.7-1.746%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)85.674.4160.0+11.167%
This opponent (Northern Kahu W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 156
Over 156
66.4%
Under 156
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 161
Over 161
54.5%
Under 161
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 166
Over 166
42.2%
Under 166
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Northern Kahu W total 77
Over 77
64.1%
Under 77
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northern Kahu W total 81
Over 81
48.4%
Under 81
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northern Kahu W total 85
Over 85
33.0%
Under 85
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tokomanawa Queens W total 76
Over 76
74.2%
Under 76
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tokomanawa Queens W total 80
Over 80
59.7%
Under 80
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tokomanawa Queens W total 84
Over 84
43.7%
Under 84
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Northern Kahu W -3
NORT -3
34.8%
TOKO +3
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
NORT
No market prices yet.
TOKO
No market prices yet.
Spread Northern Kahu W 0
NORT 0
43.7%
TOKO 0
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
NORT
No market prices yet.
TOKO
No market prices yet.
Spread Northern Kahu W +3
NORT +3
52.8%
TOKO -3
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
NORT
No market prices yet.
TOKO
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -4.4-4.4Q1: +5.5+5.5Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: +0.2+0.2Q3Q3: +1.6+1.6Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: -2.3-2.3Q4: -4.6-4.6
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -4.4-4.4Q1: +5.5+5.5Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: +0.2+0.2Q3Q3: +1.6+1.6Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: -2.3-2.3Q4: -4.6-4.6
Northern Kahu WTokomanawa Queens W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Northern Kahu WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tokomanawa Queens W
#2
L
39-46
39
46
-7
H30/11
Tauihi Women
Mid-North Whai W
#5
L
27-37
27
37
-10
A25/09
Tauihi Women
Tokomanawa Queens W
#3
W
44-43
44
43
+1
A27/09
Tauihi Women
Southern Hoiho W
#1
L
27-35
27
35
-8
H04/10
Tauihi Women
Mainland Pouakai W
#2
D
48-48
48
48
+0
H11/10
Tauihi Women
Mid-North Whai W
#5
L
34-46
34
46
-12
H18/10
Tauihi Women
Southern Hoiho W
#1
L
31-36
31
36
-5
A30/10
Tauihi Women
Mainland Pouakai W
#2
W
45-41
45
41
+4
H06/11
Tauihi Women
Tokomanawa Queens W
#3
L
31-56
31
56
-25
H12/11
Tauihi Women
Mainland Pouakai W
#2
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A14/11
Tauihi Women
78.7Avg total
36.0Scored
42.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.440.577.8-3.137%-
Last 30 at home (17)36.840.076.8-3.235%-
Last 30 away (13)38.141.179.2-3.038%-
Last 10 (10)36.042.778.7-6.720%-
Last 5 (5)35.043.678.6-8.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)37.343.480.7-6.126%-
vs Similar (7)34.735.470.1-0.757%-
vs Weaker (4)42.235.577.8+6.850%-
This opponent (Tokomanawa Queens W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Tokomanawa Queens WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mid-North Whai W
#1
W
40-34
40
34
+6
H06/12
Tauihi Women
Northern Kahu W
#4
L
43-44
43
44
-1
H27/09
Tauihi Women
Mainland Pouakai W
#2
L
43-53
43
53
-10
H04/10
Tauihi Women
Southern Hoiho W
#1
L
41-45
41
45
-4
A11/10
Tauihi Women
Mid-North Whai W
#5
W
38-36
38
36
+2
H16/10
Tauihi Women
Mainland Pouakai W
#2
L
39-41
39
41
-2
A23/10
Tauihi Women
Southern Hoiho W
#1
L
40-44
40
44
-4
H01/11
Tauihi Women
Mid-North Whai W
#5
W
54-26
54
26
+28
A08/11
Tauihi Women
Northern Kahu W
#4
W
56-31
56
31
+25
A12/11
Tauihi Women
Mid-North Whai W
#5
W
46-29
46
29
+17
H15/11
Tauihi Women
82.3Avg total
44.0Scored
38.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.039.881.9+2.257%-
Last 30 at home (15)42.439.381.7+3.160%-
Last 30 away (15)41.740.382.0+1.353%-
Last 10 (10)44.038.382.3+5.750%-
Last 5 (5)47.034.281.2+12.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)37.044.681.6-7.625%-
vs Similar (13)42.140.282.2+1.962%-
vs Weaker ◀ (9)46.435.181.6+11.378%-
This opponent (Northern Kahu W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Northern Kahu Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Northern Kahu W: 71.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀24%
🏀23%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.4 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers17.4 pts a game · 24% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.4 pts a game · 23% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.8 points a game
50%
31%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.918.7
45.7%
50.4%37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.25.8
27.4%
31.7%17.4
🏀 Free throws21.916.4
74.9%
73.0%16.4
They take 62.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Tokomanawa Queens Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Tokomanawa Queens W: 78.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.8 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.2 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.9 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.8 points a game
50%
31%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.522.4
49.2%
50.4%44.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.37.4
31.8%
31.7%22.2
🏀 Free throws15.911.9
74.8%
73.0%11.9
They take 68.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 20 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Northern Kahu W
LLWLWLLWLL
Tokomanawa Queens W
WWWLLLLLLL
#4
League position
#3
-13.3
Net rating
-5.9
84.6
Offensive rating
93.6
97.9
Defensive rating
99.6
44.1%
Effective FG%
48.7%
49.5%
Opp. effective FG%
51.7%
18.8%
Turnover %
14.2%
23.4%
Off. rebound %
29.7%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.23
27.4%
3-point %
31.8%
76.7%
Assist %
69.5%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence84.6 · 93.6Defence97.9 · 99.6Shooting44.1% · 48.7%3-point %27.4% · 31.8%Ball care18.8% · 14.2%Free throws0.35 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)30% · 30%
■ Northern Kahu W   ■ Tokomanawa Queens W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Northern Kahu W wins
6
Tokomanawa Queens W wins
DateGameScore
12/11/26Northern Kahu W v Tokomanawa Queens W71-88
27/09/26Tokomanawa Queens W v Northern Kahu W69-75
30/11/25Northern Kahu W v Tokomanawa Queens W72-88
14/11/25Tokomanawa Queens W v Northern Kahu W84-59
17/10/25Tokomanawa Queens W v Northern Kahu W94-90
08/12/24Northern Kahu W v Tokomanawa Queens W76-95
14/11/24Northern Kahu W v Tokomanawa Queens W67-76
13/10/24Tokomanawa Queens W v Northern Kahu W72-75
10/09/23Northern Kahu W v Tokomanawa Queens W98-72
02/09/23Tokomanawa Queens W v Northern Kahu W75-87
Northern Kahu Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AMainland Pouakai W71-72
12/11/26HTokomanawa Queens W71-88
06/11/26HMainland Pouakai W94-84
30/10/26ASouthern Hoiho W69-86
18/10/26HMid-North Whai W85-84
11/10/26HMainland Pouakai W87-94
04/10/26HSouthern Hoiho W66-78
27/09/26ATokomanawa Queens W75-69
25/09/26AMid-North Whai W60-81
30/11/25HTokomanawa Queens W72-88
Tokomanawa Queens Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HMid-North Whai W88-66
12/11/26ANorthern Kahu W88-71
08/11/26AMid-North Whai W97-65
01/11/26HSouthern Hoiho W81-82
23/10/26AMainland Pouakai W90-93
16/10/26HMid-North Whai W79-84
11/10/26ASouthern Hoiho W81-84
04/10/26HMainland Pouakai W77-114
27/09/26HNorthern Kahu W69-75
06/12/25HMid-North Whai W76-82

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Northern Kahu W
Tauihi Women 2026
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL33%
HomeLLWWL40%
AwayLWLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %33%40%25%
Points / game75.380.668.8
Allowed / game81.885.677.0
Point differential-6.4-5.0-8.2
Avg total157.1166.2145.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%20%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Tokomanawa Queens W
Tauihi Women 2026
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW33%
HomeLLLLW20%
AwayLLWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %33%20%50%
Points / game83.378.889.0
Allowed / game81.684.278.2
Point differential+1.8-5.4+10.8
Avg total164.9163.0167.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%20%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (4)0% (2)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Southern Hoiho W108280%82.274.9+7.3
2 Mainland Pouakai W107370%88.782.1+6.6
3 Tokomanawa Queens W93633%83.381.6+1.8
4 Northern Kahu W93633%75.381.8-6.4
5 Mid-North Whai W103730%72.782.4-9.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
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