Northwestern faces Stony Brook in the NCAA on 6 November 2026, with the Pythia model designating the Wildcats as the clear favourite at 90% probability of winning, a rating driven by their 1-0 season record, 86.0 points per game and 60.0 allowed per game, placing them 104th in the league, while Stony Brook sits 22nd with 97.0 points per game and 47.0 allowed per game, also 1-0. Northwestern's sole home game saw them beat Binghamton 86-60, and their last five games include three wins and two losses, with a recent victory over Indiana 74-61; Stony Brook's last five games record one win and four losses, highlighted by a 97-47 win over Old Westbury. The two teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 82-67 score, totaling 148.6 points, and gives Northwestern a 52% chance to cover the -14.0 spread, while the over on the 144.5 total has a 60% probability; the game has a 2% chance of overtime. The Wildcats' dominant offensive output and Stony Brook's defensive struggles suggest a decisive victory for Northwestern, who will likely finish the game with a comfortable margin.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Northwestern winWon
89.9%fair 1.11
Best odds1.11
Implied87.9%
Edge+2.0pp
Stony Brook winLost
10.1%fair 9.92
Best odds8.50
Implied12.1%
Edge-2.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Spread Northwestern -12.5 · main lineActual: Northwestern -12.5
NORT -12.5
57.6%
@ 1.91+6.7pp
STON +12.5
42.4%
@ 2.05-6.7pp
Best 5 market prices
NORT
1xBet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
BetVictor
1.78
STON
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
1.95
Betano
1.93
Marathon Be
1.90
BetVictor
1.85
Spread Northwestern -9.5Actual: Northwestern -9.5
NORT -9.5
67.8%
@ 1.50+4.7pp
STON +9.5
32.2%
@ 2.65-4.7pp
Best 5 market prices
NORT
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.43
STON
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.37
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
NorthwesternStony Brook
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
NorthwesternLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nebraska
#21
L
27-28
27
28
-1
A14/02
NCAA
Maryland
#305
W
35-34
35
34
+1
H19/02
NCAA
Indiana
#145
L
33-42
33
42
-9
A25/02
NCAA
Oregon
#293
L
29-36
29
36
-7
H28/02
NCAA
Purdue
#31
W
34-25
34
25
+9
H05/03
NCAA
Minnesota
#235
L
29-39
29
39
-10
A08/03
NCAA
Penn State
#298
W
34-32
34
32
+2
H10/03
NCAA
Indiana
#145
L
36-37
36
37
-1
A11/03
NCAA
Purdue
#31
L
21-45
21
45
-24
A12/03
NCAA
Binghamton
#264
W
51-35
51
35
+16
H03/11
NCAA
68.2Avg total
32.9Scored
35.3Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 68
Last 30 (30)
33.8
35.6
69.4
-1.8
50%
47%
Last 30 at home (17)
36.8
33.9
70.8
+2.9
71%
53%
Last 30 away (13)
29.8
37.8
67.5
-8.0
23%
38%
Last 10 (10)
32.9
35.3
68.2
-2.4
40%
40%
Last 5 (5)
34.2
37.6
71.8
-3.4
40%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)
32.3
37.5
69.7
-5.2
33%
53%
vs Similar ◀ (8)
32.4
34.0
66.4
-1.6
50%
38%
vs Weaker (7)
38.6
33.4
72.0
+5.1
86%
43%
This opponent (Stony Brook) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Stony BrookLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Monmouth
#159
L
31-46
31
46
-15
H06/02
NCAA
Northeastern
#358
W
29-19
29
19
+10
H07/02
NCAA
Towson
#157
L
23-39
23
39
-16
A13/02
NCAA
Drexel
#193
W
36-35
36
35
+1
H17/02
NCAA
Hampton
#276
W
33-29
33
29
+4
H21/02
NCAA
Monmouth
#159
L
35-49
35
49
-14
A27/02
NCAA
Hofstra
#54
D
32-32
32
32
+0
A01/03
NCAA
Towson
#157
W
36-27
36
27
+9
H03/03
NCAA
Campbell
#222
L
40-48
40
48
-8
H07/03
NCAA
Old Westbury
#458
W
42-18
42
18
+24
H02/11
NCAA
67.9Avg total
33.7Scored
34.2Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 68
Last 30 (30)
35.0
33.1
68.1
+1.9
57%
40%
Last 30 at home (15)
37.9
30.3
68.2
+7.5
80%
40%
Last 30 away (15)
32.1
35.9
68.1
-3.8
33%
40%
Last 10 (10)
33.7
34.2
67.9
-0.5
50%
40%
Last 5 (5)
37.0
34.8
71.8
+2.2
40%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)
32.7
29.1
61.9
+3.6
43%
14%
vs Similar ◀ (19)
34.7
36.4
71.1
-1.7
53%
53%
vs Weaker (4)
40.5
24.8
65.2
+15.8
100%
25%
This opponent (Northwestern) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Northwestern win
NORT win
no forecast
@ 1.23
STON win
no forecast
@ 5.10
1st half Spread Northwestern -7.5 · main lineActual: Northwestern -7.5
NORT -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
STON +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Over/Under 68 · main lineActual: Over 68
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.92
Northwestern 1st half total 37.5 · main lineActual: Northwestern over 37.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
Stony Brook 1st half total 30.5 · main lineActual: Stony Brook under 30.5
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Northwestern over 75.5
73.3%
1.45
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
-
+10.8pp
Won
Over 140
70.4%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Won
Over 139.5
71.0%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Northwestern (regulation)
88.5%
1.12
Marathon Bet
1.12
Betano
1.11
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
Over 138.5
73.1%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Over 138
74.6%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Over 139
72.5%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Over 137.5
75.1%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Over 137
76.6%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
Over 136.5
77.0%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Overtime: no
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
-
Northwestern -5.5
79.6%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Northwestern -8.5
71.0%
1.39
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Over 134.5
80.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Northwestern -7.5
74.0%
1.33
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Northwestern -6.5
76.9%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Northwestern +6.5
95.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Stony Brook over 50.5
94.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Stony Brook over 61.5
70.3%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Stony Brook over 58.5
79.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Stony Brook over 60.5
73.6%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Northwestern -6
79.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Northwestern -9
70.0%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Stony Brook over 52.5
92.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Northwestern -7
76.2%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Northwestern -8
73.2%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Northwestern -4.5
82.2%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Stony Brook over 56.5
84.9%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Over 129.5
88.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Stony Brook over 54.5
89.1%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Northwestern win
89.9%
1.09
Marathon Bet
1.11
Betano
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Bet365
1.08
+2.0pp
Won
Northwestern under 98.5
95.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Northwestern under 96.5
93.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Northwestern under 94.5
90.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Stony Brook +21.5
72.9%
1.27
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Stony Brook +24.5
80.8%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Stony Brook under 80.5
90.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Stony Brook +21
72.1%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
Northwestern under 92.5
86.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Under 169.5
90.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Stony Brook under 78.5
87.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Northwestern under 90.5
81.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
Stony Brook under 76.5
82.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
Northwestern under 88.5
75.6%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Stony Brook under 74.5
77.5%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-5.6pp
Won
Under 164.5
83.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Stony Brook under 72.5
71.3%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-6.5pp
Won
Under 159.5
75.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-9.9pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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