PythiaBasketballBETA
Super League· Arena Sever
Novosibirsk will host Barnaul on 15 November 2026 in the Super League, with the Pythia model designating Novosibirsk as the favourite and predicting a 68% chance of a home win against a 32% chance for Barnaul, a projected score of 84-79 and a total of 162.6 points; the model also estimates a 5% probability of overtime. Both clubs finish the season with identical 3-5 records, Novosibirsk averaging 82.0 points per game while allowing 89.0, and Barnaul averaging 80.0 while conceding 82.6, placing them 8th and 7th respectively. At home, Novosibirsk is 3-1, scoring 86.8 and allowing 80.0, while Barnaul on the road is 1-3, scoring 83.0 and conceding 88.0. In the last five games each side has won three and lost two, with Novosibirsk's recent victories over Tambov 90-88 and Izhevsk 103-85 and a loss to Metallurg 79-83, and Barnaul's wins over Izhevsk 90-74 and Tambov 78-67 and a narrow defeat to Chelyabinsk 94-95. Historically, Novosibirsk has dominated the 10-meeting series 8-2, most recently beating Barnaul 64-53 on 20 March 2026.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (8) | 82.0 | 89.0 | 171.0 | -7.0 | 38% |
| Season at home (4) | 86.8 | 80.0 | 166.8 | +6.8 | 75% |
| Season away (4) | 77.2 | 98.0 | 175.2 | -20.8 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 77.5 | 83.8 | 161.3 | -6.3 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 89.0 | 84.6 | 173.6 | +4.4 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (24) | 73.8 | 81.3 | 155.1 | -7.5 | 38% |
| vs Similar ◀ (4) | 83.2 | 79.0 | 162.2 | +4.2 | 75% |
| vs Weaker (2) | 82.5 | 75.0 | 157.5 | +7.5 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (8) | 80.0 | 82.6 | 162.6 | -2.6 | 38% |
| Season at home (4) | 77.0 | 77.2 | 154.2 | -0.2 | 50% |
| Season away (4) | 83.0 | 88.0 | 171.0 | -5.0 | 25% |
| Last 10 (10) | 79.7 | 81.4 | 161.1 | -1.7 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 82.0 | 78.4 | 160.4 | +3.6 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (24) | 74.0 | 83.6 | 157.6 | -9.6 | 12% |
| vs Similar ◀ (5) | 80.8 | 77.0 | 157.8 | +3.8 | 60% |
| vs Weaker (1) | 90.0 | 74.0 | 164.0 | +16.0 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.4 | 40.0 | 78.4 | -1.6 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 36.6 | 37.4 | 74.1 | -0.8 | 38% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 40.5 | 42.9 | 83.4 | -2.4 | 50% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 40.4 | 41.2 | 81.6 | -0.8 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 46.2 | 40.0 | 86.2 | +6.2 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (24) | 38.4 | 41.0 | 79.4 | -2.5 | 42% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (4) | 43.2 | 40.5 | 83.8 | +2.8 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (2) | 29.0 | 27.5 | 56.5 | +1.5 | 50% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.0 | 39.4 | 76.4 | -2.5 | 33% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 37.9 | 36.8 | 74.8 | +1.1 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 35.9 | 42.4 | 78.3 | -6.6 | 14% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.4 | 38.3 | 76.7 | +0.1 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 41.2 | 37.0 | 78.2 | +4.2 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (24) | 36.2 | 41.1 | 77.4 | -4.9 | 25% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (5) | 39.0 | 34.0 | 73.0 | +5.0 | 60% | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | 44.0 | 26.0 | 70.0 | +18.0 | 100% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 20/03/26 | Novosibirsk v Barnaul | 64-53 |
| 04/12/25 | Barnaul v Novosibirsk | 76-71 |
| 20/04/25 | Novosibirsk v Barnaul | 82-66 |
| 11/01/25 | Novosibirsk v Barnaul | 67-47 |
| 22/12/24 | Barnaul v Novosibirsk | 68-69 |
| 26/04/24 | Novosibirsk v Barnaul | 85-68 |
| 10/03/24 | Barnaul v Novosibirsk | 80-77 |
| 07/10/23 | Novosibirsk v Barnaul | 71-58 |
| 05/02/23 | Novosibirsk v Barnaul | 74-71 |
| 22/12/22 | Barnaul v Novosibirsk | 74-89 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/26 | H | Tambov | 90-88 |
| 02/11/26 | H | Izhevsk | 103-85 |
| 25/10/26 | A | Metallurg | 79-83 |
| 22/10/26 | A | Chelyabinsk | 94-103 OT |
| 15/10/26 | H | CSKA Moscow 2 | 79-64 |
| 12/10/26 | H | Dynamo Grozny | 75-83 |
| 04/10/26 | A | Ufa | 59-101 |
| 01/10/26 | A | Temp Sumz Revda | 77-105 |
| 25/05/26 | A | Dynamo Grozny | 57-60 |
| 23/05/26 | H | Dynamo Grozny | 62-66 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/26 | H | Izhevsk | 90-74 |
| 02/11/26 | H | Tambov | 78-67 |
| 25/10/26 | A | Chelyabinsk | 94-95 |
| 22/10/26 | A | Metallurg | 78-74 |
| 15/10/26 | H | Dynamo Grozny | 70-82 |
| 12/10/26 | H | CSKA Moscow 2 | 70-86 |
| 04/10/26 | A | Temp Sumz Revda | 81-91 |
| 01/10/26 | A | Ufa | 79-92 |
| 16/04/26 | A | Tambov | 94-75 |
| 15/04/26 | H | Izhevsk | 63-78 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLLWW | 38% |
| Home | LWWW | 75% |
| Away | LLLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| Win % | 38% | 75% | 0% |
| Points / game | 82.0 | 86.8 | 77.2 |
| Allowed / game | 89.0 | 80.0 | 98.0 |
| Point differential | -7.0 | +6.8 | -20.8 |
| Avg total | 171.0 | 166.8 | 175.2 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | 100% (1) | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 12% | 0% | 25% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWLWW | 38% |
| Home | LLWW | 50% |
| Away | LLWL | 25% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| Win % | 38% | 50% | 25% |
| Points / game | 80.0 | 77.0 | 83.0 |
| Allowed / game | 82.6 | 77.2 | 88.0 |
| Point differential | -2.6 | -0.2 | -5.0 |
| Avg total | 162.6 | 154.2 | 171.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | - | 50% (2) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chelyabinsk | 9 | 8 | 1 | 89% | 91.3 | 84.6 | +6.8 |
| 2 |  Ufa | 8 | 7 | 1 | 88% | 88.8 | 70.4 | +18.4 |
| 3 |  Temp Sumz Revda | 8 | 7 | 1 | 88% | 91.2 | 79.0 | +12.2 |
| 4 |  Dynamo Grozny | 9 | 7 | 2 | 78% | 84.0 | 74.9 | +9.1 |
| 5 |  Khimki M. | 9 | 6 | 3 | 67% | 82.9 | 74.9 | +8.0 |
| 6 |  CSKA Moscow 2 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 67% | 72.1 | 69.0 | +3.1 |
| 7 | Metallurg | 9 | 4 | 5 | 44% | 74.9 | 77.9 | -3.0 |
| 8 |  Tambov | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38% | 75.5 | 76.4 | -0.9 |
| 9 | Barnaul | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38% | 80.0 | 82.6 | -2.6 |
| 10 | Novosibirsk | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38% | 82.0 | 89.0 | -7.0 |
| 11 |  University-Ugra | 9 | 3 | 6 | 33% | 73.9 | 82.6 | -8.7 |
| 12 |  Izhevsk | 8 | 1 | 7 | 12% | 77.5 | 87.0 | -9.5 |
| 13 |  Desna Bryansk | 9 | 1 | 8 | 11% | 68.7 | 78.8 | -10.1 |
| 14 |  Rusichi Kursk | 9 | 1 | 8 | 11% | 71.0 | 85.7 | -14.7 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novosibirsk | 13 | 19 | 21 | 26 | 79 |
| Barnaul | 23 | 12 | 16 | 15 | 66 |
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