Ohio State faces Youngstown State on 6 November 2026 in an NCAA contest, with the model rating Ohio State as the clear favourite because of a 95% win probability and a projected 87-68 scoreline that reflects Ohio State's 0-1 season record and 83.0 points per game against 94.0 allowed, while Youngstown State sits at 1-0 with 79.0 points scored and 71.0 allowed. Ohio State's last five games show 2 wins and 3 losses, including a recent 83-94 defeat to Brigham Young and a 64-66 loss to TCU, whereas Youngstown State's five-game span also records 2 wins and 3 losses, highlighted by a 79-71 victory over St. Bonaventure but a 53-68 loss to Robert Morris. Historically, Ohio State has won the sole previous meeting, 81-47 on 11 November 2024. The Pythia model assigns a 95% probability to Ohio State's win, 5% to Youngstown State, and projects a total of 155.4 points, with a 51% chance of exceeding the 155.0 line; the overtime probability is 1%. The projected score of 87-68 underscores Ohio State's dominance in this matchup.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ohio State winWon
94.6%fair 1.06
Best odds1.01
Implied94.2%
Edge+0.3pp
Youngstown State winLost
5.4%fair 18.41
Best odds34.00
Implied5.8%
Edge-0.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Ohio State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 149.5Actual: Over 149.5
Over 149.5
64.0%
@ 1.47+0.4pp
Under 149.5
36.0%
@ 2.60-0.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.50
Over/Under 154.5 · main lineActual: Under 154.5
Over 154.5
51.9%
@ 1.90+1.9pp
Under 154.5
48.1%
@ 1.90-1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Betano
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 159.5Actual: Under 159.5
Over 159.5
39.7%
@ 2.55+2.2pp
Under 159.5
60.3%
@ 1.50-2.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
Ohio State total 86Actual: Ohio State over 86
Over 86
54.5%
Under 86
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ohio State total 90 · main lineActual: Ohio State under 90
Over 90
37.8%
@ 1.85-12.7pp
Under 90
62.2%
@ 1.87+12.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Ohio State total 94Actual: Ohio State under 94
Over 94
23.3%
Under 94
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Youngstown State total 59.5Actual: Youngstown State over 59.5
Over 59.5
80.9%
@ 1.32+11.2pp
Under 59.5
19.1%
@ 3.20-11.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.31
Under
Bet365
3.20
Betano
2.87
Youngstown State total 63.5 · main lineActual: Youngstown State over 63.5
Over 63.5
68.2%
@ 1.86+17.4pp
Under 63.5
31.8%
@ 2.02-17.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.86
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
1.92
Youngstown State total 67.5Actual: Youngstown State under 67.5
Over 67.5
52.8%
@ 2.62+16.2pp
Under 67.5
47.2%
@ 1.47-16.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.62
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.35
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
1xBet
1.44
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Ohio State -28.5Actual: Youngstown State +28.5
OHIO -28.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
YOUN +28.5
no forecast
@ 1.58
Best 5 market prices
OHIO
Betano
2.22
Bet365
2.22
YOUN
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.57
Spread Ohio State -25.5 · main lineActual: Youngstown State +25.5
OHIO -25.5
no forecast
@ 1.92
YOUN +25.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
Best 5 market prices
OHIO
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.90
BetVictor
1.88
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.86
YOUN
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Be
1.87
Spread Ohio State -22.5Actual: Ohio State -22.5
OHIO -22.5
36.8%
@ 1.57-22.3pp
YOUN +22.5
63.2%
@ 2.27+22.3pp
Best 5 market prices
OHIO
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
YOUN
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.25
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Ohio StateYoungstown State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Ohio State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Ohio State win
OHIO win
no forecast
@ 1.09
YOUN win
no forecast
@ 7.40
2nd half Spread Ohio State -11.5 · main lineActual: Ohio State -11.5
OHIO -11.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
YOUN +11.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Over/Under 81.5 · main lineActual: Over 81.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Ohio State (regulation)
OHIO
no forecast
@ 1.11
Draw
no forecast
@ 26.00
YOUN
no forecast
@ 7.10
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Youngstown State +25
71.8%
1.94
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
-
-
+23.9pp
Won
Youngstown State over 62.5
71.7%
1.66
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
+17.6pp
Won
Youngstown State over 61.5
75.0%
1.49
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
+13.4pp
Won
Youngstown State over 60.5
78.0%
1.39
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
-
+12.9pp
Won
Ohio State under 94.5
77.4%
1.39
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Won
Youngstown State over 58.5
83.5%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Won
Ohio State under 93.5
74.3%
1.49
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
Ohio State under 96.5
83.0%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
Ohio State under 92.5
70.9%
1.54
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.53
-
-
-
+11.3pp
Won
Youngstown State over 59.5
80.9%
1.31
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Won
Ohio State under 95.5
80.4%
1.32
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.30
-
-
+10.9pp
Won
Ohio State under 97.5
85.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Won
Ohio State under 99.5
89.6%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Won
Ohio State under 100.5
91.2%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
Ohio State under 98.5
87.6%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
Youngstown State over 57.5
85.9%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
Ohio State under 101.5
92.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Youngstown State over 55.5
89.9%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
Ohio State under 103.5
95.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Youngstown State over 54.5
91.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Youngstown State over 51.5
95.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Youngstown State over 53.5
93.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Ohio State (regulation)
93.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Over 129.5
94.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Under 179.5
93.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Over 134.5
90.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Ohio State win
94.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Over 147
70.1%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Over 146.5
70.7%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Ohio State over 75.5
87.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
Under 174.5
88.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
Over 144.5
74.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Over 139.5
83.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Ohio State over 77.5
83.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Under 169.5
81.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Under 164.5
71.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Ohio State -4.5
89.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
Youngstown State under 79.5
86.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
Ohio State over 79.5
77.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-5.2pp
Won
Ohio State over 80.5
74.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-6.2pp
Won
Youngstown State under 77.5
82.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Won
Ohio State over 81.5
71.4%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-8.7pp
Won
Youngstown State under 75.5
76.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-10.9pp
Won
Ohio State -10.5
76.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-12.2pp
Won
Youngstown State under 74.5
73.5%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-12.6pp
Won
Youngstown State under 73.5
70.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-12.9pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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