On 6 November 2026 the Oklahoma Sooners host the Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils in an NCAA matchup where the model names Oklahoma the clear favourite, rating them 100% to win, a figure that reflects their 0-1 season record, 64.0 points per game and 68.0 points allowed per game, and a league position of 262 that shows they have struggled but still hold a high probability in the model's eyes. Oklahoma's single game this season was a 64-68 loss at home, while Mississippi Valley State has a 1-4 record in five games, losing 52-77 to Grambling St., 77-85 to Jackson State and 64-67 to Alcorn State, with their only win coming in a 93-69 victory over Oklahoma on 29 December 2025. The head-to-head history shows Oklahoma has won both meetings, the latest ending 93-69. Pythia projects a 94-61 score, giving Oklahoma a 100% win probability and Mississippi Valley State 0%, with a projected total of 155.8 points. The home team's line of 148.5 carries a 67% chance of the over, and the game is not expected to go into overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Oklahoma winWon
99.5%fair 1.00
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miss. Valley St. winLost
0.5%fair 203.02
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Oklahoma total 93.5 · main lineActual: Oklahoma under 93.5
Over 93.5
53.6%
@ 1.86+3.6pp
Under 93.5
46.4%
@ 1.91-3.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Under
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathon Be
1.84
Oklahoma total 97.5Actual: Oklahoma under 97.5
Over 97.5
37.6%
@ 2.50+1.4pp
Under 97.5
62.4%
@ 1.42-1.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.50
Under
Betano
1.42
Miss. Valley St. total 50.5Actual: Miss. Valley St. over 50.5
Over 50.5
86.3%
@ 1.33+18.1pp
Under 50.5
13.7%
@ 2.85-18.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Under
Betano
2.85
Miss. Valley St. total 54.5 · main lineActual: Miss. Valley St. over 54.5
Over 54.5
75.6%
@ 1.90+25.0pp
Under 54.5
24.4%
@ 1.95-25.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Miss. Valley St. total 58.5Actual: Miss. Valley St. under 58.5
Over 58.5
61.4%
@ 2.57+26.1pp
Under 58.5
38.6%
@ 1.40-26.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.57
Under
Betano
1.40
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Oklahoma -41.5Actual: Miss. Valley St. +41.5
OKLA -41.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
MISS +41.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
Best 5 market prices
OKLA
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.87
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.83
MISS
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.83
Spread Oklahoma -38.5 · main lineActual: Miss. Valley St. +38.5
OKLA -38.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
MISS +38.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
Best 5 market prices
OKLA
Bet365
1.90
1xBet
1.87
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.75
Marathon Be
1.73
MISS
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.90
BetVictor
1.88
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Be
1.87
Spread Oklahoma -35.5Actual: Miss. Valley St. +35.5
OKLA -35.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
MISS +35.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
Best 5 market prices
OKLA
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.52
MISS
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.20
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
OklahomaMiss. Valley St.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Miss. Valley St. over 53.5
78.6%
1.87
Pinnacle
2.02
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
+32.2pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. over 52.5
81.4%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.87
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+31.0pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. over 53
80.9%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
-
+30.3pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. over 51.5
84.0%
1.52
Pinnacle
1.73
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
+29.8pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. over 54
77.9%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
+27.4pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. over 54.5
75.6%
1.82
Betano
1.90
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
+25.0pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. over 55
74.8%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
+24.5pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. over 55.5
72.3%
1.90
Betano
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.83
-
-
+23.8pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. over 50.5
86.3%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+18.1pp
Won
Over 147
71.2%
1.70
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.72
Bet365
1.64
-
-
+17.1pp
Lost
Over 146
73.4%
1.60
Marathon Bet
1.63
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
+15.0pp
Lost
Over 146.5
71.9%
1.64
Marathon Bet
1.68
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.60
-
-
+14.9pp
Lost
Over 145.5
73.9%
1.56
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
+14.4pp
Lost
Over 145
75.4%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+14.2pp
Lost
Over 144.5
75.9%
1.50
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+13.8pp
Lost
Over 143.5
77.8%
1.43
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+13.2pp
Lost
Over 144
77.4%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+12.9pp
Lost
Over 142.5
79.6%
1.38
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Lost
Over 141.5
81.4%
1.34
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Lost
Over 143
79.3%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Lost
Over 142
81.0%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Lost
Over 141
82.7%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+10.8pp
Push
Over 140.5
83.0%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
Over 138.5
86.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Over 133.5
91.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Over 128.5
95.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Oklahoma over 76.5
96.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Oklahoma over 84.5
84.1%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Lost
Oklahoma over 78.5
94.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Oklahoma over 83.5
86.4%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Oklahoma over 80.5
91.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Oklahoma over 82.5
88.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Oklahoma over 86.5
78.7%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Lost
Oklahoma over 88.5
72.4%
1.35
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Lost
Oklahoma under 104.5
84.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Oklahoma under 103.5
82.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Oklahoma under 102.5
79.4%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Oklahoma under 100.5
73.2%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
Oklahoma -18.5
89.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Under 173.5
86.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.2pp
Won
Oklahoma -23.5
79.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-8.9pp
Won
Under 168.5
78.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-11.0pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. under 69.5
79.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-12.9pp
Won
Miss. Valley St. under 67.5
73.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-17.3pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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