On 6 November 2026 the NCAA contest pits Ole Miss against Central Arkansas, with the model designating Ole Miss as the clear favourite because its single-game record of 1-0 is paired with a 99.0 points per game average and only 58.0 points allowed, a stark contrast to Central Arkansas' 85.0 points scored and 55.0 allowed from its lone outing. Ole Miss has won 4 of its last 5 games, including a 99-58 home victory over Alcorn State, while Central Arkansas also has 4 wins in its last 5, highlighted by an 85-55 home win over Oral Roberts. The only prior meeting, on 14 December 2020, saw Ole Miss triumph 68-54, a result that still echoes in the current matchup. Pythia assigns an 88% chance to Ole Miss and a 12% chance to Central Arkansas, projecting a final score of 83-70 and a total of 152.9 points; the home team line of -19.0 carries a 30% probability of covering, and the over/under 150.0 line has a 57% chance of exceeding. With a 3% overtime probability, the game is expected to stay within regulation, and the projected 83-70 outcome reflects Ole Miss's dominant offensive output.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ole Miss winWon
87.9%fair 1.14
Best odds1.06
Implied92.4%
Edge-4.5pp
Central Arkansas winLost
12.1%fair 8.26
Best odds15.00
Implied7.6%
Edge+4.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Ole Miss) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 149Actual: Over 149
Over 149
59.5%
@ 1.43-5.5pp
Under 149
40.5%
@ 2.65+5.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.43
Under
Bet365
2.65
Over/Under 154 · main lineActual: Under 154
Over 154
46.9%
@ 1.91-3.4pp
Under 154
53.1%
@ 1.95+3.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Over/Under 159Actual: Under 159
Over 159
34.8%
@ 2.50-2.7pp
Under 159
65.2%
@ 1.50+2.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Ole Miss total 82Actual: Ole Miss over 82
Over 82
54.9%
Under 82
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ole Miss total 86 · main lineActual: Ole Miss over 86
Over 86
38.3%
@ 1.87-11.4pp
Under 86
61.7%
@ 1.85+11.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Ole Miss total 90Actual: Ole Miss over 90
Over 90
23.7%
Under 90
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Central Arkansas total 64.5Actual: Central Arkansas under 64.5
Over 64.5
69.5%
@ 1.55+11.1pp
Under 64.5
30.5%
@ 2.18-11.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Under
Betano
2.18
Central Arkansas total 68.5 · main lineActual: Central Arkansas under 68.5
Over 68.5
54.5%
@ 1.89+4.5pp
Under 68.5
45.5%
@ 1.91-4.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Central Arkansas total 72.5Actual: Central Arkansas under 72.5
Over 72.5
38.8%
Under 72.5
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Ole Miss -20Actual: Ole Miss -20
OLE -20
27.0%
@ 2.42-12.5pp
CENT +20
73.0%
@ 1.77+12.5pp
Best 5 market prices
OLE
Pinnacle
2.42
Bet365
2.20
Marathon Be
1.95
CENT
Marathon Be
1.77
Bet365
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
Spread Ole Miss -17 · main lineActual: Ole Miss -17
OLE -17
36.7%
@ 1.91-13.5pp
CENT +17
63.3%
@ 1.95+13.5pp
Best 5 market prices
OLE
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Bet365
1.74
CENT
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Spread Ole Miss -14Actual: Ole Miss -14
OLE -14
47.6%
@ 1.50-14.9pp
CENT +14
52.4%
@ 2.50+14.9pp
Best 5 market prices
OLE
Bet365
1.50
CENT
Bet365
2.50
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Ole MissCentral Arkansas
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Ole Miss) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Ole Miss win
OLE win
no forecast
@ 1.24
CENT win
no forecast
@ 4.10
2nd half Spread Ole Miss -7.5 · main lineActual: Ole Miss -7.5
OLE -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
CENT +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Over/Under 80.5 · main lineActual: Over 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
Ole Miss 2nd half total 44.5 · main lineActual: Ole Miss over 44.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
Central Arkansas 2nd half total 37.5 · main lineActual: Central Arkansas under 37.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Spread Ole Miss -8.5Actual: Ole Miss -8.5
OLE -8.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
CENT +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half Spread Ole Miss -6.5Actual: Ole Miss -6.5
OLE -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
CENT +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Ole Miss (regulation)
OLE
no forecast
@ 1.27
Draw
no forecast
@ 20.00
CENT
no forecast
@ 4.10
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Central Arkansas +22
78.5%
1.54
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
+20.6pp
Lost
Central Arkansas +21
75.8%
1.63
Marathon Bet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.64
Bet365
1.52
-
-
+17.5pp
Lost
Central Arkansas +21.5
76.5%
1.59
Marathon Bet
1.69
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
Bet365
1.50
-
+16.4pp
Lost
Central Arkansas +22.5
79.1%
1.46
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+15.9pp
Lost
Ole Miss under 88.5
70.5%
1.58
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.50
-
-
+15.2pp
Lost
Central Arkansas +23.5
81.4%
1.40
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+15.0pp
Lost
Central Arkansas +20.5
73.8%
1.65
Marathon Bet
1.72
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.57
-
+14.7pp
Lost
Central Arkansas +24.5
83.6%
1.33
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+14.3pp
Lost
Central Arkansas +23
81.0%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+13.5pp
Lost
Ole Miss under 91.5
80.0%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+13.0pp
Lost
Central Arkansas +20
73.0%
1.65
Marathon Bet
1.77
Bet365
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
-
-
+12.5pp
Lost
Central Arkansas +24
83.3%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Lost
Ole Miss under 89.5
73.9%
1.48
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Lost
Central Arkansas +25
85.3%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Lost
Ole Miss under 93.5
85.1%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
Central Arkansas over 62.5
76.2%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Lost
Ole Miss under 95.5
89.3%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+10.4pp
Won
Central Arkansas +19.5
70.8%
1.72
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.69
Bet365
1.66
+10.0pp
Lost
Ole Miss under 90.5
77.1%
1.36
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Lost
Central Arkansas over 58.5
86.7%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
Ole Miss under 92.5
82.7%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
Ole Miss under 97.5
92.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Ole Miss under 94.5
87.3%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Ole Miss under 96.5
91.0%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Won
Ole Miss under 99.5
94.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Central Arkansas over 63.5
73.0%
1.41
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Lost
Ole Miss under 101.5
96.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Ole Miss under 103.5
97.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Ole Miss under 98.5
93.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Ole Miss under 100.5
95.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Ole Miss under 102.5
97.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Ole Miss under 104.5
98.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
Central Arkansas over 52.5
95.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Central Arkansas over 54.5
93.4%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Central Arkansas over 61.5
79.1%
1.25
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Lost
Central Arkansas over 50.5
97.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Central Arkansas over 56.5
90.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Over 144
71.1%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Over 143
73.2%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Central Arkansas over 53.5
94.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Central Arkansas over 51.5
96.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Over 125.5
95.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Central Arkansas over 55.5
92.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Under 179.5
94.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Over 143.5
71.7%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Over 130.5
91.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Under 162
71.8%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Central Arkansas over 57.5
88.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Under 162.5
72.4%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Over 140.5
77.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Under 161.5
70.3%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Over 127.5
94.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Central Arkansas over 59.5
84.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Under 174.5
90.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Ole Miss (regulation)
86.3%
1.05
Marathon Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Betano
1.04
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Under 164.5
76.3%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Under 177.5
93.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Over 135.5
85.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Under 169.5
84.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Over 132.5
89.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Over 129.5
92.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Under 175.5
91.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Under 172.5
88.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
Ole Miss +2.5
90.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Over 137.5
82.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Over 142.5
73.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Over 134.5
87.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Under 170.5
86.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Under 167.5
81.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
Ole Miss +1.5
89.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Central Arkansas under 79.5
83.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Ole Miss win
87.9%
1.04
Marathon Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Betano
1.03
WilliamHill
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-4.5pp
Won
Ole Miss -2.5
83.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Ole Miss over 76.5
75.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Over 139.5
79.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-5.6pp
Won
Ole Miss over 75.5
78.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-5.8pp
Won
Central Arkansas under 77.5
77.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-5.9pp
Won
Under 165.5
78.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-6.9pp
Won
Central Arkansas under 75.5
71.8%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Won
Ole Miss over 77.5
71.7%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
Ole Miss -3.5
81.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.6pp
Won
Ole Miss -7.5
70.2%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-9.3pp
Won
Ole Miss -4.5
79.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-9.8pp
Won
Central Arkansas under 76.5
75.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-10.6pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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