PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Ole Miss faces Nicholls State on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model rating Ole Miss as the clear favourite because of a 3-0 record, 94.0 points per game and only 56.3 points allowed, placing them 9th in the league, while Nicholls State sits 248th with a 1-2 record, 78.7 points per game and 67.7 points allowed. At home Ole Miss has gone 3-0, scoring 94.0 and allowing 56.3, and has won four of its last five games, including a 91-51 victory over SE Louisiana, a 92-60 win over Central Arkansas and a 99-58 win over Alcorn State. Nicholls State has gone 0-2 on the road, averaging 63.0 points and conceding 73.5, and has won two of its last five games, with a recent 110-56 home win over North American Stallions but losses to Tulane and UAB. The head-to-head record shows no prior meetings, and the last encounter is not listed. Pythia projects an 86-66 win for Ole Miss, a 95% chance of a home win and a 5% chance for Nicholls State, with a projected total of 151.6 points; the overtime probability is 1%. The model sees Ole Miss as the dominant side, and the game is expected to be a decisive victory for the Rebels.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 94.0 | 56.3 | 150.3 | +37.7 | 100% |
| Season at home (3) | 94.0 | 56.3 | 150.3 | +37.7 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 83.6 | 71.1 | 154.7 | +12.5 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 90.4 | 68.2 | 158.6 | +22.2 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (17) | 74.9 | 81.5 | 156.4 | -6.6 | 24% |
| vs Similar (9) | 76.0 | 76.2 | 152.2 | -0.2 | 56% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (4) | 90.2 | 53.0 | 143.2 | +37.2 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 78.7 | 67.7 | 146.3 | +11.0 | 33% |
| Season at home (1) | 110.0 | 56.0 | 166.0 | +54.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 63.0 | 73.5 | 136.5 | -10.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 69.7 | 67.6 | 137.3 | +2.1 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 73.0 | 67.2 | 140.2 | +5.8 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (10) | 71.8 | 82.5 | 154.3 | -10.7 | 20% |
| vs Similar (16) | 71.9 | 69.4 | 141.3 | +2.4 | 69% |
| vs Weaker (3) | 81.0 | 65.3 | 146.3 | +15.7 | 33% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.6 | 33.5 | 68.1 | +1.0 | 47% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 36.9 | 32.9 | 69.8 | +3.9 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 32.3 | 34.1 | 66.4 | -1.9 | 33% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 40.9 | 30.7 | 71.6 | +10.2 | 80% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 46.2 | 30.6 | 76.8 | +15.6 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (17) | 32.4 | 35.0 | 67.4 | -2.6 | 29% | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 33.6 | 34.6 | 68.1 | -1.0 | 56% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (4) | 46.2 | 25.0 | 71.2 | +21.2 | 100% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 33.9 | 35.1 | 69.0 | -1.2 | 47% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 34.9 | 34.9 | 69.9 | +0.0 | 57% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 32.9 | 35.2 | 68.2 | -2.3 | 38% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 31.1 | 34.4 | 65.5 | -3.3 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 32.8 | 35.2 | 68.0 | -2.4 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (10) | 31.9 | 41.7 | 73.6 | -9.8 | 10% | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 33.8 | 31.6 | 65.3 | +2.2 | 69% | - |
| vs Weaker (3) | 34.7 | 31.3 | 66.0 | +3.3 | 33% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | H | SE Louisiana | 91-51 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Central Arkansas | 92-60 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Alcorn State | 99-58 |
| 14/03/26 | A | Arkansas | 90-93 OT |
| 13/03/26 | A | Alabama | 80-79 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Georgia | 76-72 |
| 11/03/26 | A | Texas | 76-66 |
| 07/03/26 | H | South Carolina | 61-64 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Vanderbilt | 86-89 OT |
| 01/03/26 | A | Auburn | 85-79 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | A | Tulane | 63-77 |
| 07/11/26 | A | UAB | 63-70 |
| 02/11/26 | H | North American Stallions | 110-56 |
| 10/03/26 | A | UTRGV | 68-86 |
| 09/03/26 | H | Northwestern St. | 61-47 |
| 03/03/26 | H | McNeese State | 65-75 |
| 28/02/26 | H | SE Louisiana | 68-60 |
| 24/02/26 | A | Lamar | 53-52 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Stephen F. Austin | 78-81 |
| 17/02/26 | A | Houston Christian | 68-72 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 94.0 | 94.0 | - |
| Allowed / game | 56.3 | 56.3 | - |
| Point differential | +37.7 | +37.7 | - |
| Avg total | 150.3 | 150.3 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLL | 33% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 78.7 | 110.0 | 63.0 |
| Allowed / game | 67.7 | 56.0 | 73.5 |
| Point differential | +11.0 | +54.0 | -10.5 |
| Avg total | 146.3 | 166.0 | 136.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Texas | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.0 | 57.0 | +43.0 |
| 2 |  LSU | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 52.7 | +41.3 |
| 3 | Ole Miss | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 56.3 | +37.7 |
| 4 |  Texas A&M | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 103.0 | 66.7 | +36.3 |
| 5 |  Mississippi St. | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.3 | 63.0 | +32.3 |
| 6 |  Vanderbilt | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 90.7 | 59.7 | +31.0 |
| 7 |  Auburn | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.5 | 56.0 | +27.5 |
| 8 |  Tennessee | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 80.0 | 53.0 | +27.0 |
| 9 |  Alabama | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 102.0 | 76.0 | +26.0 |
| 10 |  South Carolina | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 78.7 | 54.7 | +24.0 |
| 11 |  Florida | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 82.0 | 65.3 | +16.7 |
| 12 |  Georgia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 70.3 | +12.7 |
| 13 |  Missouri | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 97.0 | 66.0 | +31.0 |
| 14 |  Arkansas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 84.7 | 68.3 | +16.3 |
| 15 |  Oklahoma | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 76.3 | 65.7 | +10.7 |
| 16 |  Kentucky | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.0 | 75.3 | +5.7 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Stephen F. Austin | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 54.7 | +40.3 |
| 2 |  Houston Christian | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 89.7 | 62.7 | +27.0 |
| 3 |  Lamar | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 109.0 | 67.3 | +41.7 |
| 4 |  McNeese State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 100.3 | 80.7 | +19.7 |
| 5 |  Texas A&M-CC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 74.7 | 61.7 | +13.0 |
| 6 |  UTRGV | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 71.3 | 62.0 | +9.3 |
| 7 |  New Orleans | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 73.5 | 82.5 | -9.0 |
| 8 | Nicholls State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 78.7 | 67.7 | +11.0 |
| 9 |  SE Louisiana | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 64.3 | 87.3 | -23.0 |
| 10 |  Northwestern St. | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 64.2 | 77.8 | -13.5 |
| 11 |  Incarnate Word | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 60.8 | 79.2 | -18.5 |
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