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Orbi vs Black Fortress Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 01 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 10:00
Final 82-81
20-14 14-19 18-22 30-26
Position#2
Record2-1
FormLWWLW
Points / game85.7
Allowed / game83.7
Orbi 🏆
Georgia
Vs
78%
22%
■ ORBI 78%■ BLAC 22%
Pythia win probability
Projected 91-82
Projected total 173.0
Black Fortress
Georgia
Position#11
Record0-4
FormLLLL
Points / game78.8
Allowed / game90.0
GeorgiaSuperleagueRound 5· Tkibuli sport palace
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off
Orbi host Black Fortress in the Superleague. Pythia makes Orbi the favourite at 78% and projects 91-82, about 173 points in all (over 169: 59%). On the market's main spread (Orbi -7.5) Pythia gives Orbi 55% to cover. Overtime chance: 4%. Orbi are 2-1 this season (85.7 scored, 83.7 allowed a game), form LWWLW; Black Fortress are 0-4 this season (78.8 scored, 90.0 allowed a game), form LLLL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Orbi winWon
77.8%fair 1.28
Best odds1.37
Implied72.9%
Edge+4.9pp
Black Fortress winLost
22.2%fair 4.51
Best odds3.40
Implied27.1%
Edge-4.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 31 Oct 09:03 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

OrbiGeorgiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormOrbi
Date
Competition
Margveti
#4
W
91-76
91
76
+15
87avg 76
H30/04
Superleague
Margveti
#4
W
79-72
79
72
+7
20avg 76
A03/05
Superleague
TSU
#2
L
88-92
88
92
-4
83avg 76
A08/05
Superleague
TSU
#2
W
91-85
91
85
+6
86avg 76
A10/05
Superleague
TSU
#2
L
68-89
68
89
-21
56avg 76
H13/05
Superleague
TSU
#2
L
71-96
71
96
-25
60avg 76
H15/05
Superleague
Kutaisi
#3
W
86-80
86
80
+6
79avg 76
A22/05
Superleague
Telavi
#5
W
87-81
87
81
+6
56avg 76
A04/10
Superleague
Rustavi
#3
L
92-95
92
95
-3
88avg 76
H18/10
Superleague
Margveti
#9
W
78-75
78
75
+3
70avg 76
A25/10
Superleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-21
27-23
28-15
13-17
25-25
23-21
16-16
15-10
24-20
15-22
17-27
32-23
24-21
28-13
18-24
21-27
11-36
11-21
24-12
22-20
16-26
18-33
15-19
22-18
28-25
15-21
19-16
24-18
18-24
24-21
21-13
24-23
15-30
22-18
27-23
28-24
17-15
20-20
19-14
22-26
167.2Avg total
83.1Scored
84.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)85.783.7169.3+2.067%
Season at home (1)92.095.0187.0-3.00%
Season away (2)82.578.0160.5+4.5100%
Last 10 (10)83.184.1167.2-1.060%
Last 5 (5)82.885.4168.2-2.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)80.390.7171.0-10.322%
vs Similar (18)87.886.7174.4+1.161%
vs Weaker ◀ (3)82.779.3162.0+3.3100%
This opponent (Black Fortress) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Black FortressGeorgiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormFortress
Date
Competition
CIU
#1
L
84-108
84
108
-24
78avg 68
A04/10
Superleague
Iverioni
#7
L
70-75
70
75
-5
45avg 68
H10/10
Superleague
TSU
#6
L
82-89
82
89
-7
80avg 68
H17/10
Superleague
Telavi
#5
L
79-88
79
88
-9
70avg 68
H24/10
Superleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-27
22-32
16-24
28-25
22-21
12-21
20-16
16-17
22-22
21-26
20-13
19-28
19-26
17-19
22-17
21-26
168.8Avg total
78.8Scored
90.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)78.890.0168.8-11.20%
Season at home (3)77.084.0161.0-7.00%
Season away (1)84.0108.0192.0-24.00%
Last 10 (4)78.890.0168.8-11.20%
Last 5 (4)78.890.0168.8-11.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)78.890.0168.8-11.20%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Orbi) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 164Actual: Under 164
Over 164
70.8%
Under 164
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 169 · main lineActual: Under 169
Over 169
59.2%
@ 1.90+9.0pp
Under 169
40.8%
@ 1.88-9.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.90
Pinnacle
1.86
SBO
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.76
Over/Under 174Actual: Under 174
Over 174
46.9%
Under 174
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Orbi total 82.5Actual: Orbi under 82.5
Over 82.5
79.7%
Under 82.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orbi total 86.5 · main lineActual: Orbi under 86.5
Over 86.5
66.8%
@ 1.83+16.8pp
Under 86.5
33.2%
@ 1.83-16.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.83
Orbi total 90.5Actual: Orbi under 90.5
Over 90.5
51.4%
Under 90.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Black Fortress total 76.5Actual: Black Fortress over 76.5
Over 76.5
70.5%
Under 76.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Black Fortress total 80.5 · main lineActual: Black Fortress over 80.5
Over 80.5
55.8%
@ 1.86+5.8pp
Under 80.5
44.2%
@ 1.85-5.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.83
Betano
1.78
Under
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Black Fortress total 84.5Actual: Black Fortress under 84.5
Over 84.5
40.3%
Under 84.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Orbi -10.5Actual: Black Fortress +10.5
ORBI -10.5
43.5%
BLAC +10.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
ORBI
No market prices yet.
BLAC
No market prices yet.
Spread Orbi -7.5 · main lineActual: Black Fortress +7.5
ORBI -7.5
54.6%
@ 1.91+5.6pp
BLAC +7.5
45.4%
@ 1.83-5.6pp
Best 5 market prices
ORBI
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.89
SBO
1.89
Betano
1.83
Betfair
1.83
BLAC
Pinnacle
1.83
Betfair
1.83
SBO
1.81
Betano
1.80
Marathon Be
1.78
Spread Orbi -4.5Actual: Black Fortress +4.5
ORBI -4.5
65.6%
BLAC +4.5
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
ORBI
No market prices yet.
BLAC
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -4.2-4.2Q1: -3.8-3.8Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: -6.5-6.5Q3Q3: +2.5+2.5Q3: +2.0+2.0Q4Q4: +1.7+1.7Q4: -3.0-3.0
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -4.2-4.2Q1: -3.8-3.8Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: -6.5-6.5Q3Q3: +2.5+2.5Q3: +2.0+2.0Q4Q4: +1.7+1.7Q4: -3.0-3.0
OrbiBlack Fortress
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
OrbiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Margveti
#4
W
50-44
50
44
+6
H30/04
Superleague
Margveti
#4
W
48-46
48
46
+2
A03/05
Superleague
TSU
#2
L
39-42
39
42
-3
A08/05
Superleague
TSU
#2
W
52-34
52
34
+18
A10/05
Superleague
TSU
#2
L
22-57
22
57
-35
H13/05
Superleague
TSU
#2
L
34-59
34
59
-25
H15/05
Superleague
Kutaisi
#3
L
43-46
43
46
-3
A22/05
Superleague
Telavi
#5
L
42-45
42
45
-3
A04/10
Superleague
Rustavi
#3
L
37-48
37
48
-11
H18/10
Superleague
Margveti
#9
W
37-35
37
35
+2
A25/10
Superleague
86.0Avg total
40.4Scored
45.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 83.5
Last 30 (30)40.044.284.2-4.237%53%
Last 30 at home (14)38.243.081.2-4.836%43%
Last 30 away (16)41.645.286.9-3.638%62%
Last 10 (10)40.445.686.0-5.240%70%
Last 5 (5)38.646.685.2-8.020%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)39.345.684.9-6.233%56%
vs Similar (18)41.544.185.6-2.639%61%
vs Weaker ◀ (3)33.340.774.0-7.333%0%
This opponent (Black Fortress) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Black FortressLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
CIU
#1
L
40-59
40
59
-19
A04/10
Superleague
Iverioni
#7
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H10/10
Superleague
TSU
#6
L
43-48
43
48
-5
H17/10
Superleague
Telavi
#5
L
36-45
36
45
-9
H24/10
Superleague
86.8Avg total
38.2Scored
48.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 83.5
Last 30 (4)38.248.586.8-10.20%50%
Last 30 at home (3)37.745.082.7-7.30%33%
Last 30 away (1)40.059.099.0-19.00%100%
Last 10 (4)38.248.586.8-10.20%50%
Last 5 (4)38.248.586.8-10.20%50%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)38.248.586.8-10.20%50%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Orbi) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Orbi win
ORBI win
no forecast
@ 1.50
BLAC win
no forecast
@ 2.80
1st half Spread Orbi -3.5 · main lineActual: Black Fortress +3.5
ORBI -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
BLAC +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
1st half Over/Under 83.5 · main lineActual: Under 83.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Orbi 1st half total 43.5 · main lineActual: Orbi under 43.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
Black Fortress 1st half total 40 · main lineActual: Black Fortress under 40
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.81
1st half: ORBI + total 83.5
ORBI & over
no forecast
@ 3.05
ORBI & under
no forecast
@ 2.90
1st half: Draw + total 83.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 31.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 29.00
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Orbi (regulation)
ORBI
no forecast
@ 1.54
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.50
BLAC
no forecast
@ 2.90

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
ORBI win + total 168.5
🔒 Pro
BLAC win + total 168.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: ORBI leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: BLAC leads at half
🔒 Pro
Quarters won (ORBI:BLAC): split
🔒 Pro
Team with the highest-scoring quarter
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
Double chance (regulation)
🔒 Pro
Quarters won (ORBI:BLAC): ORBI wins more
🔒 Pro
Quarters won (ORBI:BLAC): BLAC wins more
🔒 Pro
🔒 12 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Orbi (regulation)75.5%1.27
Marathon Bet
1.27		----+5.4ppWon
Orbi win77.8%1.30
Bet365
1.37
WilliamHill
1.36
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26		+4.9ppWon
Overtime: no96.1%1.02
Betano
1.02		----+4.5pp-
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Orbitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Orbi: 78.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀23%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.3 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.8 pts a game · 23% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
51%
30%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.619.6
48.3%
48.5%39.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.87.1
29.8%
30.7%21.3
🏀 Free throws24.717.8
72.1%
63.2%17.8
They take 64.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Black Fortresstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Black Fortress: 75.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀63%
🏀🏀🏀17%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.5 pts a game · 63% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers12.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.2 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
51%
30%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.523.8
50.0%
48.5%47.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.84.2
22.7%
30.7%12.8
🏀 Free throws24.015.2
63.5%
63.2%15.2
They take 66.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 18.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 28% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/4 games with a box score before 01 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Orbi
WLWWLLWLWW
Black Fortress
LLLL
#2
League position
#11
-3.3
Net rating
-15.3
88.3
Offensive rating
79.8
91.6
Defensive rating
95.1
47.0%
Effective FG%
45.5%
50.3%
Opp. effective FG%
51.0%
15.1%
Turnover %
17.2%
0.38
Free-throw rate
0.36
29.8%
3-point %
22.7%
68.2%
Assist %
69.6%
60%
Form (last 10/4)
0%

Profile

Offence88.3 · 79.8Defence91.6 · 95.1Shooting47.0% · 45.5%3-point %29.8% · 22.7%Ball care15.1% · 17.2%Free throws0.38 · 0.36Form (last 10/4)60% · 0%
■ Orbi   ■ Black Fortress
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Orbi wins
0
Black Fortress wins
No previous meetings.
Orbilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/10/26AMargveti78-75
18/10/26HRustavi92-95
04/10/26ATelavi87-81
22/05/26AKutaisi86-80
15/05/26HTSU71-96
13/05/26HTSU68-89
10/05/26ATSU91-85
08/05/26ATSU88-92
03/05/26AMargveti79-72
30/04/26HMargveti91-76
Black Fortresslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/10/26HTelavi79-88
17/10/26HTSU82-89
10/10/26HIverioni70-75
04/10/26ACIU84-108

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Orbi
Superleague 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLW67%
HomeL0%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %67%0%100%
Points / game85.792.082.5
Allowed / game83.795.078.0
Point differential+2.0-3.0+4.5
Avg total169.3187.0160.5
Over 16933%100%0%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Black Fortress
Superleague 2026-27
Recent: 0 Wins / 4 Losses (last 4)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLL0%
HomeLLL0%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game78.877.084.0
Allowed / game90.084.0108.0
Point differential-11.2-7.0-24.0
Avg total168.8161.0192.0
Over 16950%33%100%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 CIU440100%93.272.0+21.2
2 Rustavi43175%87.887.5+0.2
3 Orbi32167%85.783.7+2.0
4 Batumi32167%75.375.7-0.3
5 TSU53260%85.084.0+1.0
6 Telavi42250%84.582.5+2.0
7 Iverioni42250%77.078.2-1.2
8 Akhaltsikhe42250%75.079.5-4.5
9 Kutaisi41325%78.583.2-4.8
10 Margveti51420%77.681.0-3.4
11 Black Fortress4040%78.890.0-11.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Orbi2014183082
Black Fortress1419222681
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