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Oregon vs Oregon State Prediction & Stats

Date: Fri 20 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 02:00
Projected 81-70
Projected total 151.0
Scheduled
Position#31
Record3-0
FormWLWWW
Points / game95.0
Allowed / game68.7
Oregon
USA
Vs
82%
18%
■ OREG 82%■ OREG 18%
Pythia win probability
Oregon State
USA
Position#35
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game93.2
Allowed / game69.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Oregon v Oregon State
19 Nov 2026
OREG v OREG
upcoming
17 Nov 2025
OREG87
OREG75
28 Feb 2024
OREG78
OREG71
31 Dec 2022
OREG77
OREG68
09 Mar 2022
OREG86
OREG72
29 Jan 2022
OREG78
OREG56
12 Mar 2021
OREG64
OREG75
23 Jan 2021
OREG64
OREG75
12 Mar 2020
OREG v OREG
upcoming
27 Feb 2020
OREG69
OREG54
Sections
Game preview & prediction

On 19 November 2026 the NCAA will see Oregon host Oregon State, and the Pythia model names Oregon the clear favourite, rating them 82% to win because of a flawless 3-0 season record, 95.0 points per game and 68.7 allowed per game, while Oregon State sits 4-0 with 93.2 points per game and 69.5 allowed per game; both teams have never lost, but Oregon's higher scoring average and slightly tighter defence give the edge. Oregon has won all three of its games, including 100-66 over Miss. Valley St., 98-71 over East. Washington and 87-69 over Montana, and has a 4-1 record over its last five games; Oregon State has also won all four of its games, including 81-65 over Miss. Valley St., 94-84 over East. Washington and 96-68 over California Baptist, and has a 4-1 record over its last five games. Their head-to-head history shows Oregon winning nine of ten meetings, most recently 87-75 on 17 November 2025. Pythia projects a 81-70 score for Oregon, a total of 151.0 points, and gives Oregon a 82% chance to win, Oregon State 18%; the model also projects a 3% chance of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Oregon win
82.4%fair 1.21
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Oregon State win
17.6%fair 5.70
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:33 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

OregonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota
#235
L
44-61
44
61
-17
H18/02
NCAA
USC
#153
W
71-70
71
70
+1
A21/02
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
W
85-71
85
71
+14
H26/02
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
L
62-63
62
63
-1
A28/02
NCAA
Illinois
#35
L
54-80
54
80
-26
A04/03
NCAA
Washington
#218
W
85-79
85
79
+6
H08/03
NCAA
Maryland
#305
L
60-70
60
70
-10
H10/03
NCAA
Montana
#195
W
87-69
87
69
+18
H03/11
NCAA
East. Washington
#308
W
98-71
98
71
+27
H06/11
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#387
W
100-66
100
66
+34
H12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
17-22
27-39
35-32
36-38
30-33
55-38
36-29
26-34
21-41
33-39
44-30
41-49
12-33
48-37
40-31
47-38
53-39
45-32
50-28
50-38
144.6Avg total
74.6Scored
70.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)95.068.7163.7+26.3100%
Season at home (3)95.068.7163.7+26.3100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)74.670.0144.6+4.660%
Last 5 (5)86.071.0157.0+15.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)67.676.6144.2-8.917%
vs Similar ◀ (9)75.670.9146.4+4.756%
vs Weaker (3)95.068.7163.7+26.3100%
This opponent (Oregon State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Oregon StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Seattle
#108
L
50-60
50
60
-10
A16/02
NCAA
Pepperdine
#347
W
83-73
83
73
+10
H22/02
NCAA
San Diego Toreros
#301
W
92-82 OT
92
82
+10
H26/02
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
L
72-93
72
93
-21
A01/03
NCAA
San Francisco
#191
W
78-77
78
77
+1
H09/03
NCAA
Gonzaga
#9
L
56-65
56
65
-9
A10/03
NCAA
Weber State
#324
W
102-61
102
61
+41
H03/11
NCAA
California Baptist
#321
W
96-68
96
68
+28
H07/11
NCAA
East. Washington
#308
W
94-84
94
84
+10
H10/11
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#387
W
81-65
81
65
+16
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
18-36
32-24
36-42
47-31
35-32
43-46
33-38
39-55
30-32
48-45
24-38
32-27
43-35
59-26
44-34
52-34
49-37
45-47
45-31
36-34
153.2Avg total
80.4Scored
72.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)93.269.5162.8+23.8100%
Season at home (4)93.269.5162.8+23.8100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)80.472.8153.2+7.670%
Last 5 (5)85.868.6154.4+17.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)67.673.2140.8-5.744%
vs Similar ◀ (7)78.075.7153.7+2.371%
vs Weaker (5)91.270.2161.4+21.0100%
This opponent (Oregon) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 147
Over 147
59.3%
Under 147
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 152
Over 152
46.9%
Under 152
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 157
Over 157
34.8%
Under 157
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Oregon total 81.5
Over 81.5
47.1%
Under 81.5
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oregon total 85.5
Over 85.5
31.7%
Under 85.5
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oregon total 89.5
Over 89.5
19.0%
Under 89.5
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oregon State total 62
Over 62
79.5%
Under 62
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oregon State total 66
Over 66
66.0%
Under 66
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oregon State total 70
Over 70
50.1%
Under 70
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Oregon -3
OREG -3
76.7%
OREG +3
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
OREG
No market prices yet.
OREG
No market prices yet.
Spread Oregon 0
OREG 0
82.4%
OREG 0
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
OREG
No market prices yet.
OREG
No market prices yet.
Spread Oregon +3
OREG +3
87.8%
OREG -3
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
OREG
No market prices yet.
OREG
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +2.0+2.01st half: +0.2+0.22nd half2nd half: +2.6+2.62nd half: +6.4+6.4
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +2.0+2.01st half: +0.2+0.22nd half2nd half: +2.6+2.62nd half: +6.4+6.4
OregonOregon State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
OregonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota
#235
L
17-22
17
22
-5
H18/02
NCAA
USC
#153
W
35-32
35
32
+3
A21/02
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
L
30-33
30
33
-3
H26/02
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
W
36-29
36
29
+7
A28/02
NCAA
Illinois
#35
L
21-41
21
41
-20
A04/03
NCAA
Washington
#218
W
44-30
44
30
+14
H08/03
NCAA
Maryland
#305
L
12-33
12
33
-21
H10/03
NCAA
Montana
#195
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H03/11
NCAA
East. Washington
#308
W
53-39
53
39
+14
H06/11
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#387
W
50-28
50
28
+22
H12/11
NCAA
65.6Avg total
33.8Scored
31.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.434.769.1-0.343%-
Last 30 at home (19)36.333.669.9+2.647%-
Last 30 away (11)31.336.567.8-5.336%-
Last 10 (10)33.831.865.6+2.060%-
Last 5 (5)39.832.272.0+7.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)31.634.966.5-3.422%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)35.834.970.7+0.967%-
vs Weaker (3)47.732.780.3+15.0100%-
This opponent (Oregon State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Oregon StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Seattle
#108
L
18-36
18
36
-18
A16/02
NCAA
Pepperdine
#347
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H22/02
NCAA
San Diego Toreros
#301
W
35-32
35
32
+3
H26/02
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
L
33-38
33
38
-5
A01/03
NCAA
San Francisco
#191
L
30-32
30
32
-2
H09/03
NCAA
Gonzaga
#9
L
24-38
24
38
-14
A10/03
NCAA
Weber State
#324
W
43-35
43
35
+8
H03/11
NCAA
California Baptist
#321
W
44-34
44
34
+10
H07/11
NCAA
East. Washington
#308
W
49-37
49
37
+12
H10/11
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#387
W
45-31
45
31
+14
H14/11
NCAA
71.2Avg total
35.7Scored
35.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.535.870.3-1.340%-
Last 30 at home (19)35.434.870.2+0.547%-
Last 30 away (11)33.037.570.5-4.527%-
Last 10 (10)35.735.571.2+0.250%-
Last 5 (5)41.035.076.0+6.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)32.036.068.0-4.028%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)34.635.369.9-0.743%-
vs Weaker (5)43.435.879.2+7.680%-
This opponent (Oregon) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
9
Oregon wins
1
Oregon State wins
DateGameScore
18/11/25Oregon v Oregon State87-75
22/11/24Oregon State v Oregon75-78
29/02/24Oregon v Oregon State78-71
18/02/24Oregon State v Oregon58-60
26/02/23Oregon State v Oregon67-69
01/01/23Oregon v Oregon State77-68
09/03/22Oregon v Oregon State86-72
30/01/22Oregon v Oregon State78-56
11/01/22Oregon State v Oregon76-78
13/03/21Oregon v Oregon State64-75
Oregonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HMiss. Valley St.100-66
06/11/26HEast. Washington98-71
03/11/26HMontana87-69
10/03/26HMaryland60-70
08/03/26HWashington85-79
04/03/26AIllinois54-80
28/02/26ANorthwestern62-63
26/02/26HWisconsin85-71
21/02/26AUSC71-70
18/02/26HMinnesota44-61
Oregon Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HMiss. Valley St.81-65
10/11/26HEast. Washington94-84
07/11/26HCalifornia Baptist96-68
03/11/26HWeber State102-61
10/03/26AGonzaga56-65
09/03/26HSan Francisco78-77
01/03/26ASanta Clara72-93
26/02/26HSan Diego Toreros92-82 OT
22/02/26HPepperdine83-73
16/02/26ASeattle50-60

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Oregon
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game95.095.0-
Allowed / game68.768.7-
Point differential+26.3+26.3-
Avg total163.7163.7-
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Oregon State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games44-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game93.293.2-
Allowed / game69.569.5-
Point differential+23.8+23.8-
Avg total162.8162.8-
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UCLA330100%101.358.3+43.0
2 Nebraska330100%89.060.7+28.3
3 Rutgers330100%84.756.3+28.3
4 Michigan State440100%93.066.2+26.8
5 Oregon330100%95.068.7+26.3
6 Indiana440100%89.068.0+21.0
7 Wisconsin330100%79.058.0+21.0
8 Minnesota440100%78.858.5+20.2
9 USC330100%88.371.3+17.0
10 Washington220100%83.570.0+13.5
11 Illinois43175%104.571.2+33.2
12 Purdue43175%78.569.0+9.5
13 Northwestern43175%70.861.8+9.0
14 Iowa32167%85.064.7+20.3
15 Michigan32167%81.774.3+7.3
16 Penn State53260%77.675.6+2.0
17 Ohio State42250%81.079.2+1.8
18 Maryland31233%84.380.0+4.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
West Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oregon State440100%93.269.5+23.8
2 Santa Clara550100%86.675.0+11.6
3 St. Marys (CA)43175%93.576.5+17.0
4 San Diego Toreros43175%84.275.5+8.8
5 San Francisco43175%71.568.5+3.0
6 Pacific32167%74.753.7+21.0
7 Pepperdine42250%96.070.0+26.0
8 Portland52340%87.093.6-6.6
9 Gonzaga31233%87.075.7+11.3
10 Seattle31233%70.373.3-3.0
11 Loyola Marymount41325%84.574.8+9.8
12 Washington State41325%81.579.5+2.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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