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Oregon vs Pepperdine Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 22:00
Projected 85-69
Projected total 154.4
Scheduled
Position#31
Record3-0
FormWLWWW
Points / game95.0
Allowed / game68.7
Oregon
USA
Vs
91%
■ OREG 91%■ PEPP 9%
Pythia win probability
Pepperdine
USA
Position#185
Record2-2
FormLLWWL
Points / game96.0
Allowed / game70.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Oregon v Pepperdine
15 Nov 2026
OREG v PEPP
upcoming
21 Dec 2021
OREG68
PEPP59
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Oregon faces Pepperdine on 15 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating Oregon as the clear favourite at 91% versus Pepperdine's 9% due to Oregon's perfect 3-0 season record, 95.0 points per game and 68.7 allowed, and Pepperdine's 2-2 record, 96.0 points per game and 70.0 allowed. Oregon has won all three of its games, including a 100-66 triumph over Miss. Valley St., a 98-71 win over East. Washington and a 87-69 victory over Montana, all at home, while Pepperdine has struggled on the road, going 0-2 with 81.0 points per game and 85.5 allowed, and has lost two of its last five games, including a 77-85 loss to Sam Houston St. The only prior meeting was Oregon's 68-59 win in December 2021. Pythia projects a 85-69 score with a total of 154.4 points; the home line is -14.5 with a 54% chance of covering, and the over on the 157.5 line has a 42% probability, with a 2% chance of overtime. The game will see Oregon's dominant offense and Pepperdine's defensive struggles at the forefront.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Oregon win
91.3%fair 1.10
Best odds1.11
Implied87.8%
Edge+3.5pp
Pepperdine win
8.7%fair 11.45
Best odds8.50
Implied12.2%
Edge-3.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 22:22 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

OregonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota
#235
L
44-61
44
61
-17
H18/02
NCAA
USC
#153
W
71-70
71
70
+1
A21/02
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
W
85-71
85
71
+14
H26/02
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
L
62-63
62
63
-1
A28/02
NCAA
Illinois
#35
L
54-80
54
80
-26
A04/03
NCAA
Washington
#218
W
85-79
85
79
+6
H08/03
NCAA
Maryland
#305
L
60-70
60
70
-10
H10/03
NCAA
Montana
#195
W
87-69
87
69
+18
H03/11
NCAA
East. Washington
#308
W
98-71
98
71
+27
H06/11
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#387
W
100-66
100
66
+34
H12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
17-22
27-39
35-32
36-38
30-33
55-38
36-29
26-34
21-41
33-39
44-30
41-49
12-33
48-37
40-31
47-38
53-39
45-32
50-28
50-38
144.6Avg total
74.6Scored
70.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)95.068.7163.7+26.3100%
Season at home (3)95.068.7163.7+26.3100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)74.670.0144.6+4.660%
Last 5 (5)86.071.0157.0+15.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)67.676.6144.2-8.917%
vs Similar ◀ (9)75.670.9146.4+4.756%
vs Weaker (3)95.068.7163.7+26.3100%
This opponent (Pepperdine) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PepperdineUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Loyola Marymount
#234
W
90-89
90
89
+1
H14/02
NCAA
Portland
#253
W
95-87
95
87
+8
A19/02
NCAA
Oregon State
#195
L
73-83
73
83
-10
A22/02
NCAA
Seattle
#108
L
80-87
80
87
-7
H26/02
NCAA
Washington State
#291
W
88-79
88
79
+9
H01/03
NCAA
Portland
#253
L
68-77
68
77
-9
A06/03
NCAA
Cornell
#221
L
85-86
85
86
-1
A02/11
NCAA
La Sierra
#455
W
106-66
106
66
+40
H06/11
NCAA
Bethesda
#346
W
116-43
116
43
+73
H08/11
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#225
L
77-85
77
85
-8
A12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
54-56
36-33
45-43
50-44
42-36
31-47
27-39
53-48
36-28
52-51
38-44
30-33
40-46
45-40
53-29
53-37
48-18
68-25
35-41
42-44
166.0Avg total
87.8Scored
78.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)96.070.0166.0+26.050%
Season at home (2)111.054.5165.5+56.5100%
Season away (2)81.085.5166.5-4.50%
Last 10 (10)87.878.2166.0+9.650%
Last 5 (5)90.471.4161.8+19.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)68.381.1149.4-12.815%
vs Similar ◀ (6)75.277.3152.5-2.250%
vs Weaker (3)92.771.3164.0+21.333%
This opponent (Oregon) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 152.5
Over 152.5
54.4%
@ 1.50-8.0pp
Under 152.5
45.6%
@ 2.55+8.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.37
Over/Under 157.5 · main line
Over 157.5
42.1%
@ 1.93-7.6pp
Under 157.5
57.9%
@ 1.89+7.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.93
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
Bet365
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
Betano
1.85
SBO
1.81
Over/Under 162.5
Over 162.5
30.6%
@ 2.55-6.3pp
Under 162.5
69.4%
@ 1.47+6.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47

📊 3. Team Totals

Oregon total 82
Over 82
62.6%
Under 82
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oregon total 86 · main line
Over 86
46.0%
@ 1.88-3.6pp
Under 86
54.0%
@ 1.85+3.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Oregon total 90
Over 90
30.0%
Under 90
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pepperdine total 68
Over 68
55.1%
Under 68
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pepperdine total 72 · main line
Over 72
38.8%
@ 1.85-11.2pp
Under 72
61.2%
@ 1.85+11.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Pepperdine total 76
Over 76
24.4%
Under 76
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Oregon -17
OREG -17
44.9%
@ 2.25+1.3pp
PEPP +17
55.1%
@ 1.72-1.3pp
Best 5 market prices
OREG
Bet365
2.25
Marathon Be
2.01
PEPP
Marathon Be
1.72
Bet365
1.57
Spread Oregon -14 · main line
OREG -14
56.0%
@ 1.97+6.6pp
PEPP +14
44.0%
@ 1.95-6.6pp
Best 5 market prices
OREG
Marathon Be
1.97
Pinnacle
1.94
SBO
1.93
Bet365
1.80
PEPP
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.78
Marathon Be
1.75
Spread Oregon -11
OREG -11
66.6%
@ 1.50+4.1pp
PEPP +11
33.4%
@ 2.50-4.1pp
Best 5 market prices
OREG
Bet365
1.50
PEPP
Bet365
2.50

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +2.0+2.01st half: +3.8+3.82nd half2nd half: +2.6+2.62nd half: +5.8+5.8
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +2.0+2.01st half: +3.8+3.82nd half2nd half: +2.6+2.62nd half: +5.8+5.8
OregonPepperdine
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
OregonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota
#235
L
17-22
17
22
-5
H18/02
NCAA
USC
#153
W
35-32
35
32
+3
A21/02
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
L
30-33
30
33
-3
H26/02
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
W
36-29
36
29
+7
A28/02
NCAA
Illinois
#35
L
21-41
21
41
-20
A04/03
NCAA
Washington
#218
W
44-30
44
30
+14
H08/03
NCAA
Maryland
#305
L
12-33
12
33
-21
H10/03
NCAA
Montana
#195
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H03/11
NCAA
East. Washington
#308
W
53-39
53
39
+14
H06/11
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#387
W
50-28
50
28
+22
H12/11
NCAA
65.6Avg total
33.8Scored
31.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76
Last 30 (30)34.434.769.1-0.343%27%
Last 30 at home (19)36.333.669.9+2.647%37%
Last 30 away (11)31.336.567.8-5.336%9%
Last 10 (10)33.831.865.6+2.060%20%
Last 5 (5)39.832.272.0+7.680%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)31.634.966.5-3.422%17%
vs Similar ◀ (9)35.834.970.7+0.967%33%
vs Weaker (3)47.732.780.3+15.0100%67%
This opponent (Pepperdine) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PepperdineLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Loyola Marymount
#234
L
54-56
54
56
-2
H14/02
NCAA
Portland
#253
W
45-43
45
43
+2
A19/02
NCAA
Oregon State
#195
W
42-36
42
36
+6
A22/02
NCAA
Seattle
#108
L
27-39
27
39
-12
H26/02
NCAA
Washington State
#291
W
36-28
36
28
+8
H01/03
NCAA
Portland
#253
L
38-44
38
44
-6
A06/03
NCAA
Cornell
#221
L
40-46
40
46
-6
A02/11
NCAA
La Sierra
#455
W
53-29
53
29
+24
H06/11
NCAA
Bethesda
#346
W
48-18
48
18
+30
H08/11
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#225
L
35-41
35
41
-6
A12/11
NCAA
79.8Avg total
41.8Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76
Last 30 (30)35.237.472.6-2.237%33%
Last 30 at home (14)34.134.068.1+0.143%14%
Last 30 away (16)36.140.476.5-4.231%50%
Last 10 (10)41.838.079.8+3.850%60%
Last 5 (5)42.835.678.4+7.240%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)33.138.571.7-5.430%30%
vs Similar ◀ (6)36.236.272.3+0.050%33%
vs Weaker (3)41.035.076.0+6.033%33%
This opponent (Oregon) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
OREG win
no forecast
@ 1.19
PEPP win
no forecast
@ 4.75
1st half Spread Oregon -9.5 · main line
OREG -9.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
PEPP +9.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 76 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Oregon 1st half total 41.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.84
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Pepperdine 1st half total 33 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.84
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
1st half Over/Under 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.75
Under
no forecast
@ 2.05
1st half Over/Under 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.15
Under
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Oregon -10.5
OREG -10.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
PEPP +10.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Oregon -8.5
OREG -8.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
PEPP +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Oregon -11.5
OREG -11.5
no forecast
@ 2.67
PEPP +11.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
1st half Spread Oregon -7.5
OREG -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
PEPP +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
1st half Over/Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.52
Under
no forecast
@ 2.35
1st half Over/Under 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.55
Under
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half Spread Oregon -12.5
OREG -12.5
no forecast
@ 2.72
PEPP +12.5
no forecast
@ 1.39
1st half Spread Oregon -6.5
OREG -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
PEPP +6.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
OREG
no forecast
@ 1.23
Draw
no forecast
@ 26.00
PEPP
no forecast
@ 4.70

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
OREG win + total 157.5
🔒 Pro
PEPP win + total 157.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: OREG leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: PEPP leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Pepperdine under 77.579.2%1.32
Betano
1.32		----+9.8pp
Pepperdine under 75.573.2%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+9.7pp
Under 16677.0%1.33
Bet365
1.33		----+7.0pp
Oregon -9.570.9%1.45
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.40		---+7.0pp
Oregon under 93.580.4%1.23
Bet365
1.23		----+5.1pp
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🔒 46 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Oregon wins
0
Pepperdine wins
DateGameScore
22/12/21Oregon v Pepperdine68-59
Oregonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HMiss. Valley St.100-66
06/11/26HEast. Washington98-71
03/11/26HMontana87-69
10/03/26HMaryland60-70
08/03/26HWashington85-79
04/03/26AIllinois54-80
28/02/26ANorthwestern62-63
26/02/26HWisconsin85-71
21/02/26AUSC71-70
18/02/26HMinnesota44-61
Pepperdinelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26ASam Houston St.77-85
08/11/26HBethesda116-43
06/11/26HLa Sierra106-66
02/11/26ACornell85-86
06/03/26APortland68-77
01/03/26HWashington State88-79
26/02/26HSeattle80-87
22/02/26AOregon State73-83
19/02/26APortland95-87
14/02/26HLoyola Marymount90-89

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Oregon
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game95.095.0-
Allowed / game68.768.7-
Point differential+26.3+26.3-
Avg total163.7163.7-
Over 157.567%67%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Pepperdine
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWL50%
HomeWW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %50%100%0%
Points / game96.0111.081.0
Allowed / game70.054.585.5
Point differential+26.0+56.5-4.5
Avg total166.0165.5166.5
Over 157.5100%100%100%
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UCLA330100%101.358.3+43.0
2 Nebraska330100%89.060.7+28.3
3 Rutgers330100%84.756.3+28.3
4 Michigan State440100%93.066.2+26.8
5 Oregon330100%95.068.7+26.3
6 Indiana440100%89.068.0+21.0
7 Wisconsin330100%79.058.0+21.0
8 Minnesota440100%78.858.5+20.2
9 USC330100%88.371.3+17.0
10 Washington220100%83.570.0+13.5
11 Illinois43175%104.571.2+33.2
12 Purdue43175%78.569.0+9.5
13 Northwestern43175%70.861.8+9.0
14 Iowa32167%85.064.7+20.3
15 Michigan32167%81.774.3+7.3
16 Penn State53260%77.675.6+2.0
17 Ohio State42250%81.079.2+1.8
18 Maryland31233%84.380.0+4.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
West Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oregon State440100%93.269.5+23.8
2 Santa Clara550100%86.675.0+11.6
3 St. Marys (CA)43175%93.576.5+17.0
4 San Diego Toreros43175%84.275.5+8.8
5 San Francisco43175%71.568.5+3.0
6 Pacific32167%74.753.7+21.0
7 Pepperdine42250%96.070.0+26.0
8 Portland52340%87.093.6-6.6
9 Gonzaga31233%87.075.7+11.3
10 Seattle31233%70.373.3-3.0
11 Loyola Marymount41325%84.574.8+9.8
12 Washington State41325%81.579.5+2.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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