PythiaBasketballBETA
Liga LeumitRound 4
Otef Darom hosts Migdal Haemek on 3 November 2026 in the Liga Leumit, with the Pythia model designating Otef Darom as the favourite and predicting a 70% chance of a home win. Otef Darom has gone 1-2 in all three games this season, averaging 75.3 points scored and 81.0 points allowed, and sits 12th in the league; at home they are unbeaten 1-0, scoring 87.0 and allowing 83.0. Their last five games show one win and four losses, including a 87-83 home victory over Maccabi Kiryat Motzkin and defeats to Elitzur Shomron and Ramat Hasharon. Migdal Haemek has struggled, finishing 0-3 with 69.0 points scored and 93.3 allowed, and is 15th in the standings; on the road they are 0-1, scoring 67.0 and conceding 103.0. Their last five games contain two wins and three losses, but recent results include losses to Maccabi Rehovot, Elitzur Maccabi Netanya, and Ironi Nahariya. Historically, the teams have met five times, with Migdal Haemek winning four; the most recent meeting on 10 April 2026 saw Migdal Haemek triumph 102-82. Pythia projects a final score of 88-82, a total of 170.7 points, and a 5% chance of overtime.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 75.3 | 81.0 | 156.3 | -5.7 | 33% |
| Season at home (1) | 87.0 | 83.0 | 170.0 | +4.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 69.5 | 80.0 | 149.5 | -10.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 79.5 | 82.7 | 162.2 | -3.2 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 77.8 | 87.0 | 164.8 | -9.2 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (12) | 79.9 | 86.7 | 166.6 | -6.8 | 25% |
| vs Similar (15) | 81.7 | 83.1 | 164.7 | -1.4 | 27% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (3) | 96.7 | 82.7 | 179.3 | +14.0 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 69.0 | 93.3 | 162.3 | -24.3 | 0% |
| Season at home (2) | 70.0 | 88.5 | 158.5 | -18.5 | 0% |
| Season away (1) | 67.0 | 103.0 | 170.0 | -36.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 88.2 | 93.9 | 182.1 | -5.7 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 86.8 | 94.8 | 181.6 | -8.0 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (9) | 79.9 | 94.9 | 174.8 | -15.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (16) | 93.8 | 90.8 | 184.6 | +2.9 | 56% |
| vs Weaker (5) | 98.2 | 95.8 | 194.0 | +2.4 | 60% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 82.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 40.7 | 41.4 | 82.1 | -0.7 | 43% | 53% |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 43.5 | 41.4 | 84.8 | +2.1 | 46% | 62% |
| Last 30 away (17) | 38.5 | 41.4 | 79.9 | -2.9 | 41% | 47% |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.3 | 39.2 | 76.5 | -1.9 | 40% | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 40.4 | 41.4 | 81.8 | -1.0 | 40% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (12) | 37.2 | 41.8 | 79.1 | -4.6 | 33% | 42% |
| vs Similar (15) | 40.5 | 41.5 | 82.0 | -1.1 | 40% | 53% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (3) | 55.3 | 39.0 | 94.3 | +16.3 | 100% | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 82.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 45.4 | 47.4 | 92.8 | -2.0 | 43% | 73% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 47.3 | 46.3 | 93.6 | +1.0 | 56% | 81% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 43.1 | 48.6 | 91.8 | -5.5 | 29% | 64% |
| Last 10 (10) | 46.9 | 49.1 | 96.0 | -2.2 | 30% | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 45.0 | 47.8 | 92.8 | -2.8 | 20% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (9) | 40.7 | 45.7 | 86.3 | -5.0 | 44% | 56% |
| vs Similar (16) | 47.5 | 47.2 | 94.7 | +0.3 | 50% | 88% |
| vs Weaker (5) | 47.0 | 51.2 | 98.2 | -4.2 | 20% | 60% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otef Darom over 80.5 | 77.6% | 1.45 | 1.52 | 1.37 | - | - | - | +15.5pp | Won |
| Over 158.5 | 76.4% | 1.50 | 1.50 | - | - | - | - | +15.4pp | Won |
| Over 157.5 | 78.3% | 1.45 | 1.45 | - | - | - | - | +15.3pp | Won |
| Otef Darom over 79.5 | 80.4% | 1.38 | 1.44 | 1.32 | - | - | - | +15.0pp | Won |
| Over 156.5 | 80.1% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +14.6pp | Won |
| Otef Darom over 82.5 | 71.4% | 1.53 | 1.55 | 1.51 | - | - | - | +13.1pp | Won |
| Otef Darom over 81.5 | 74.6% | 1.46 | 1.47 | 1.44 | - | - | - | +13.1pp | Won |
| Otef Darom over 78.5 | 83.0% | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | +13.0pp | Won |
| Over 161.5 | 70.4% | 1.52 | 1.52 | - | - | - | - | +10.0pp | Won |
| Over 159.5 | 74.5% | 1.42 | 1.42 | - | - | - | - | +9.9pp | Won |
| Over 160.5 | 72.5% | 1.45 | 1.45 | - | - | - | - | +9.5pp | Won |
| Otef Darom +4.5 | 80.6% | 1.28 | 1.28 | - | - | - | - | +8.9pp | Won |
| Otef Darom +3.5 | 78.0% | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | +8.7pp | Won |
| Migdal Haemek over 76.5 | 71.2% | 1.43 | 1.50 | 1.36 | - | - | - | +8.4pp | Lost |
| Migdal Haemek over 75.5 | 74.4% | 1.35 | 1.40 | 1.31 | - | - | - | +8.0pp | Lost |
| Otef Darom +2.5 | 75.6% | 1.33 | 1.38 | 1.28 | - | - | - | +7.4pp | Won |
| Otef Darom +1.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | 1.44 | 1.34 | - | - | - | +7.0pp | Won |
| Overtime: no | 95.3% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +3.8pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 10/04/26 | Otef Darom v Migdal Haemek | 82-102 |
| 03/12/25 | Migdal Haemek v Otef Darom | 85-92 |
| 22/04/25 | Migdal Haemek v Otef Darom | 87-79 |
| 05/02/25 | Otef Darom v Migdal Haemek | 86-93 |
| 01/11/24 | Migdal Haemek v Otef Darom | 96-63 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/26 | A | Elitzur Shomron | 61-74 |
| 23/10/26 | H | Maccabi Kiryat Motzkin | 87-83 |
| 16/10/26 | A | Ramat Hasharon | 78-86 |
| 27/05/26 | H | Maccabi Ashdod | 79-82 |
| 24/05/26 | A | Maccabi Ashdod | 84-110 |
| 19/05/26 | H | Maccabi Ashdod | 71-67 |
| 15/05/26 | A | Maccabi Ashdod | 79-103 |
| 12/05/26 | A | Maccabi Rehovot | 77-58 |
| 08/05/26 | H | Maccabi Rehovot | 89-73 |
| 05/05/26 | A | Maccabi Rehovot | 90-91 OT |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10/26 | H | Maccabi Rehovot | 71-88 |
| 23/10/26 | A | Elitzur Maccabi Netanya | 67-103 |
| 16/10/26 | H | Ironi Nahariya | 69-89 |
| 27/05/26 | A | Safed | 131-121 |
| 24/05/26 | H | Maccabi Maale Adumim | 96-73 |
| 19/05/26 | A | Maccabi Haifa | 75-86 |
| 15/05/26 | H | Elitzur Yavne | 92-83 |
| 12/05/26 | A | Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 78-89 |
| 08/05/26 | H | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 110-100 |
| 28/04/26 | A | Ramat Hasharon | 93-107 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWL | 33% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 75.3 | 87.0 | 69.5 |
| Allowed / game | 81.0 | 83.0 | 80.0 |
| Point differential | -5.7 | +4.0 | -10.5 |
| Avg total | 156.3 | 170.0 | 149.5 |
| Over 165.75 | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLL | 0% |
| Home | LL | 0% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Points / game | 69.0 | 70.0 | 67.0 |
| Allowed / game | 93.3 | 88.5 | 103.0 |
| Point differential | -24.3 | -18.5 | -36.0 |
| Avg total | 162.3 | 158.5 | 170.0 |
| Over 165.75 | 33% | 0% | 100% |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Elitzur Maccabi Netanya | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 67.3 | +21.7 |
| 2 |  Maccabi Raanana | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 87.3 | 77.0 | +10.3 |
| 3 |  Hapoel Haifa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 87.7 | 74.0 | +13.7 |
| 4 |  Ironi Nahariya | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 88.0 | 78.7 | +9.3 |
| 5 |  Maccabi Rehovot | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 89.0 | 81.3 | +7.7 |
| 6 |  Elitzur Ashkelon | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 91.3 | 88.7 | +2.7 |
| 7 | Elitzur Shomron | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 73.0 | 74.3 | -1.3 |
| 8 |  Maccabi Petah Tikva | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 90.5 | 89.0 | +1.5 |
| 9 |  Ramat Hasharon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 82.5 | 84.5 | -2.0 |
| 10 | H. Hevel Modiin | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 75.5 | 79.5 | -4.0 |
| 11 |  Maccabi Kiryat Motzkin | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 89.0 | 90.0 | -1.0 |
| 12 | Otef Darom | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 75.3 | 81.0 | -5.7 |
| 13 |  Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 75.7 | 87.7 | -12.0 |
| 14 |  Elitzur Yavne | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 66.3 | 84.3 | -18.0 |
| 15 | Migdal Haemek | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 69.0 | 93.3 | -24.3 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otef Darom | 26 | 30 | 20 | 22 | 98 |
| Migdal Haemek | 18 | 13 | 18 | 18 | 67 |
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