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Pelplin vs LKS Lodz Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 19:00
Projected 84-90
Projected total 174.3
Final 91-98
29-19 23-23 21-29 18-27
Position#10
Record4-3
FormLWWWL
Points / game90.9
Allowed / game91.7
Vs
31%
69%
■ PELP 31%■ LKS 69%
Pythia win probability
Position#2
Record5-2
FormWWLWL
Points / game88.0
Allowed / game78.3
Poland1 LigaRound 8· Zespol Ksztalcenia i Wychowania nr
Other2026-27
Meetings · Pelplin v LKS Lodz
07 Nov 2026
PELP91
LKS 98
19 Oct 2025
PELP83
LKS 72
23 Mar 2025
PELP101
LKS 72
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Pelplin will host LKS Lodz on 7 November 2026 in the 1 Liga, with the Pythia model designating LKS Lodz as the favourite and predicting a 69% chance of an away win, while Pelplin has a 31% chance of victory; the projected score is 84-90 and the total 174.4 points, slightly below the 175.0 line with a 48% over probability. Pelplin, 4-3 in all games with 90.9 points per game and 91.7 allowed, is undefeated at home 3-0, scoring 93.0 and conceding 82.7, and has won three of its last five games, though a recent 94-108 loss to Polonia Warszawa at home and a 99-92 win over Spojnia Stargard at home highlight recent swings. LKS Lodz, 5-2 overall with 88.0 points scored and 78.3 allowed, has a 2-2 road record with 90.2 points scored and 86.0 allowed, and has also won three of its last five, including a 96-105 loss to Spojnia Stargard away and a 78-84 loss to Poli. Opolska away.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pelplin winLost
30.9%fair 3.24
Best odds3.50
Implied26.3%
Edge+4.6pp
LKS Lodz winWon
69.1%fair 1.45
Best odds1.31
Implied73.7%
Edge-4.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PelplinPolandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPelplin
Date
Competition
Spojnia Stargard
#4
L
68-92
68
92
-24
61avg 77
H25/04
1 Liga
Spojnia Stargard
#4
W
83-76
83
76
+7
75avg 77
H26/04
1 Liga
Spojnia Stargard
#4
L
78-93
78
93
-15
68avg 77
A29/04
1 Liga
Poli. Opolska
#16
W
89-76
89
76
+13
92avg 77
H27/09
1 Liga
Leszno
#1
L
74-91
74
91
-17
61avg 77
A30/09
1 Liga
WKK Wroclaw
#5
L
83-97
83
97
-14
74avg 77
A03/10
1 Liga
Krosno
#12
W
91-80
91
80
+11
89avg 77
H09/10
1 Liga
R. Rzeszow
#15
W
106-98
106
98
+8
98avg 77
A17/10
1 Liga
Spojnia Stargard
#3
W
99-92
99
92
+7
90avg 77
H24/10
1 Liga
Polonia Warszawa
#7
L
94-108
94
108
-14
88avg 77
A31/10
1 Liga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-24
14-16
23-32
15-20
16-21
16-19
21-25
30-11
15-22
21-31
25-23
17-17
30-14
18-25
22-17
19-20
21-28
19-23
15-19
19-21
17-23
24-21
21-22
21-31
23-23
23-16
15-27
30-14
33-18
26-28
19-32
28-20
34-21
20-22
25-25
20-24
25-29
27-28
27-30
15-21
176.8Avg total
86.5Scored
90.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)90.991.7182.6-0.957%
Season at home (3)93.082.7175.7+10.3100%
Season away (4)89.298.5187.8-9.225%
Last 10 (10)86.590.3176.8-3.850%
Last 5 (5)94.695.0189.6-0.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)83.895.5179.2-11.825%
vs Similar (19)84.587.1171.6-2.547%
vs Weaker (7)89.181.1170.3+8.086%
This opponent (LKS Lodz) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LKS LodzPolandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLodz
Date
Competition
Bydgoszcz
#1
L
74-81
74
81
-7
63avg 79
H23/05
1 Liga
Bydgoszcz
#1
W
88-69
88
69
+19
81avg 79
H24/05
1 Liga
Bydgoszcz
#1
L
87-96
87
96
-9
77avg 79
A27/05
1 Liga
GKS Tychy
#11
W
87-52
87
52
+35
88avg 79
H27/09
1 Liga
Starogard Gdanski
#14
W
101-83
101
83
+18
106avg 79
A30/09
1 Liga
Bytom
#13
W
86-72
86
72
+14
82avg 79
A03/10
1 Liga
Poznan
#4
W
86-79
86
79
+7
78avg 79
H11/10
1 Liga
Poli. Opolska
#16
L
78-84
78
84
-6
70avg 79
A17/10
1 Liga
Krosno
#12
W
82-73
82
73
+9
72avg 79
H24/10
1 Liga
Spojnia Stargard
#3
L
96-105
96
105
-9
93avg 79
A31/10
1 Liga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-20
22-16
23-26
16-19
15-20
26-18
21-13
26-18
20-20
21-18
19-30
27-28
17-7
22-6
26-13
22-26
20-12
29-29
27-25
25-17
14-12
25-16
28-28
19-16
18-12
23-24
22-24
23-19
26-17
18-19
16-22
18-26
16-21
20-25
22-7
24-20
24-24
26-31
22-22
24-28
165.9Avg total
86.5Scored
79.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)88.078.3166.3+9.771%
Season at home (3)85.068.0153.0+17.0100%
Season away (4)90.286.0176.2+4.250%
Last 10 (10)86.579.4165.9+7.160%
Last 5 (5)85.682.6168.2+3.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)77.679.3156.9-1.729%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)87.578.5166.0+9.070%
This opponent (Pelplin) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 170.5Actual: Over 170.5
Over 170.5
58.3%
Under 170.5
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 175.75 · main lineActual: Over 175.75
Over 175.75
no forecast
@ 1.78
Under 175.75
no forecast
@ 1.78
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.78
Under
1xBet
1.78
Over/Under 180.5Actual: Over 180.5
Over 180.5
34.7%
Under 180.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Pelplin total 79.5Actual: Pelplin over 79.5
Over 79.5
67.5%
@ 1.37+3.5pp
Under 79.5
32.5%
@ 2.44-3.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.37
Under
1xBet
2.44
Pelplin total 83.5 · main lineActual: Pelplin over 83.5
Over 83.5
52.6%
@ 1.83+1.5pp
Under 83.5
47.4%
@ 1.91-1.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.69
Under
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.75
Pelplin total 87.5Actual: Pelplin over 87.5
Over 87.5
37.4%
@ 2.31-0.3pp
Under 87.5
62.6%
@ 1.40+0.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.31
Under
1xBet
1.40
LKS Lodz total 87.5Actual: LKS Lodz over 87.5
Over 87.5
59.5%
@ 1.38-3.7pp
Under 87.5
40.5%
@ 2.37+3.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.38
Under
1xBet
2.37
LKS Lodz total 91.5 · main lineActual: LKS Lodz over 91.5
Over 91.5
44.0%
@ 1.88-5.1pp
Under 91.5
56.0%
@ 1.75+5.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.72
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.72
LKS Lodz total 95.5Actual: LKS Lodz over 95.5
Over 95.5
29.3%
@ 2.37-7.5pp
Under 95.5
70.7%
@ 1.38+7.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.37
Under
1xBet
1.38

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Pelplin +4Actual: LKS Lodz -4
PELP +4
42.5%
LKS -4
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
PELP
No market prices yet.
LKS
No market prices yet.
Spread Pelplin +7 · main linePush
PELP +7
54.5%
@ 1.91+5.1pp
LKS -7
45.5%
@ 1.84-5.1pp
Best 5 market prices
PELP
SBO
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
LKS
Pinnacle
1.84
SBO
1.76
Spread Pelplin +10Actual: Pelplin +10
PELP +10
65.5%
@ 1.53+5.0pp
LKS -10
34.5%
@ 2.35-5.0pp
Best 5 market prices
PELP
Pinnacle
1.53
LKS
Pinnacle
2.35

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +0.7+0.7Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: +3.0+3.0Q3Q3: -3.9-3.9Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: +1.5+1.5Q4: +0.7+0.7
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +0.7+0.7Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: +3.0+3.0Q3Q3: -3.9-3.9Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: +1.5+1.5Q4: +0.7+0.7
PelplinLKS Lodz
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PelplinLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Spojnia Stargard
#4
L
30-40
30
40
-10
H25/04
1 Liga
Spojnia Stargard
#4
L
32-40
32
40
-8
H26/04
1 Liga
Spojnia Stargard
#4
L
36-53
36
53
-17
A29/04
1 Liga
Poli. Opolska
#16
W
48-39
48
39
+9
H27/09
1 Liga
Leszno
#1
L
40-51
40
51
-11
A30/09
1 Liga
WKK Wroclaw
#5
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A03/10
1 Liga
Krosno
#12
W
46-39
46
39
+7
H09/10
1 Liga
R. Rzeszow
#15
W
59-46
59
46
+13
A17/10
1 Liga
Spojnia Stargard
#3
W
54-43
54
43
+11
H24/10
1 Liga
Polonia Warszawa
#7
L
52-57
52
57
-5
A31/10
1 Liga
89.0Avg total
43.8Scored
45.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 86.5
Last 30 (30)44.044.088.0-0.047%60%
Last 30 at home (13)43.339.883.2+3.569%38%
Last 30 away (17)44.547.291.6-2.729%76%
Last 10 (10)43.845.289.0-1.440%60%
Last 5 (5)50.445.896.2+4.660%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)48.549.297.8-0.825%100%
vs Similar (19)42.544.386.8-1.742%58%
vs Weaker (7)45.340.385.6+5.071%43%
This opponent (LKS Lodz) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LKS LodzLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bydgoszcz
#1
L
35-36
35
36
-1
H23/05
1 Liga
Bydgoszcz
#1
W
41-38
41
38
+3
H24/05
1 Liga
Bydgoszcz
#1
W
41-38
41
38
+3
A27/05
1 Liga
GKS Tychy
#11
W
39-13
39
13
+26
H27/09
1 Liga
Starogard Gdanski
#14
W
49-41
49
41
+8
A30/09
1 Liga
Bytom
#13
W
39-28
39
28
+11
A03/10
1 Liga
Poznan
#4
W
41-36
41
36
+5
H11/10
1 Liga
Poli. Opolska
#16
W
44-36
44
36
+8
A17/10
1 Liga
Krosno
#12
L
36-46
36
46
-10
H24/10
1 Liga
Spojnia Stargard
#3
L
50-55
50
55
-5
A31/10
1 Liga
78.2Avg total
41.5Scored
36.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 86.5
Last 30 (30)44.238.883.0+5.463%33%
Last 30 at home (14)44.738.082.7+6.771%36%
Last 30 away (16)43.839.483.2+4.356%31%
Last 10 (10)41.536.778.2+4.870%20%
Last 5 (5)42.040.282.2+1.860%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)41.337.979.1+3.457%14%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)45.139.084.1+6.065%39%
This opponent (Pelplin) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Pelplin win
PELP win
no forecast
@ 2.82
LKS win
no forecast
@ 1.45
1st half Spread Pelplin +3.5 · main lineActual: Pelplin +3.5
PELP +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
LKS -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
1st half Over/Under 86.5 · main lineActual: Over 86.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
Pelplin 1st half total 41.5 · main lineActual: Pelplin over 41.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
LKS Lodz 1st half total 45.5 · main lineActual: LKS Lodz under 45.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
1st half: PELP + total 86.5
PELP & over
no forecast
@ 5.00
PELP & under
no forecast
@ 5.00
1st half: Draw + total 86.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 31.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 31.00
1st half: LKS + total 86.5
LKS & over
no forecast
@ 2.90
LKS & under
no forecast
@ 2.90
1st half Spread Pelplin +4.5Actual: Pelplin +4.5
PELP +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
LKS -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.96
1st half Spread Pelplin +5.5Actual: Pelplin +5.5
PELP +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.78
LKS -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Spread Pelplin 0Actual: Pelplin 0
PELP 0
no forecast
@ 2.75
LKS 0
no forecast
@ 1.40
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: LKS Lodz (regulation)
PELP
no forecast
@ 2.95
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.50
LKS
no forecast
@ 1.50

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
PELP win + total 174.5
🔒 Pro
LKS win + total 174.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: PELP leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: LKS leads at half
🔒 Pro
Team with the highest-scoring quarter
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
LKS Lodz under 97.577.1%1.28
1xBet
1.28
----+7.8ppLost
LKS Lodz under 96.574.0%1.33
1xBet
1.33
----+7.7ppLost
LKS Lodz under 95.570.7%1.38
1xBet
1.38
----+7.5ppLost
Pelplin +12.572.9%1.33
1xBet
1.33
----+6.1ppWon
Pelplin +13.575.7%1.27
1xBet
1.27
----+5.6ppWon
Overtime: no95.2%1.02
Betano
1.02
----+3.7pp-
Pelplin over 78.571.0%1.31
1xBet
1.31
----+3.6ppWon
Pelplin over 77.574.2%1.24
1xBet
1.24
----+3.5ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Pelplintheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pelplin: 86.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀25%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.2 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.3 pts a game · 25% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.0 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.4 points a game
50%
31%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.823.6
53.9%
53.9%47.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.27.1
33.5%
33.5%21.3
🏀 Free throws26.418.0
68.2%
70.8%18.0
They take 65.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 33% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
LKS Lodztheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

LKS Lodz: 86.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.4 points a game
50%
31%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.820.4
54.0%
53.9%40.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.19.3
35.6%
33.5%27.9
🏀 Free throws26.417.5
66.3%
70.8%17.5
They take 63.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Pelplin
LWWWLLWLWL
LKS Lodz
LWLWWWWLWL
#10
League position
#2
-4.1
Net rating
+8.0
92.7
Offensive rating
99.5
96.8
Defensive rating
91.6
52.7%
Effective FG%
53.8%
52.6%
Opp. effective FG%
48.6%
17.9%
Turnover %
12.9%
0.41
Free-throw rate
0.41
33.5%
3-point %
35.6%
59.3%
Assist %
62.3%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence92.7 · 99.5Defence96.8 · 91.6Shooting52.7% · 53.8%3-point %33.5% · 35.6%Ball care17.9% · 12.9%Free throws0.41 · 0.41Form (last 10/10)50% · 60%
■ Pelplin   ■ LKS Lodz
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Pelplin wins
1
LKS Lodz wins
DateGameScore
07/02/26LKS Lodz v Pelplin95-81
19/10/25Pelplin v LKS Lodz83-72
23/03/25Pelplin v LKS Lodz101-72
15/12/24LKS Lodz v Pelplin83-98
Pelplinlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26APolonia Warszawa94-108
24/10/26HSpojnia Stargard99-92
17/10/26AR. Rzeszow106-98
09/10/26HKrosno91-80
03/10/26AWKK Wroclaw83-97
30/09/26ALeszno74-91
27/09/26HPoli. Opolska89-76
29/04/26ASpojnia Stargard78-93
26/04/26HSpojnia Stargard83-76
25/04/26HSpojnia Stargard68-92
LKS Lodzlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26ASpojnia Stargard96-105
24/10/26HKrosno82-73
17/10/26APoli. Opolska78-84
11/10/26HPoznan86-79
03/10/26ABytom86-72
30/09/26AStarogard Gdanski101-83
27/09/26HGKS Tychy87-52
27/05/26ABydgoszcz87-96
24/05/26HBydgoszcz88-69
23/05/26HBydgoszcz74-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pelplin
1 Liga 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL57%
HomeWWW100%
AwayLLWL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %57%100%25%
Points / game90.993.089.2
Allowed / game91.782.798.5
Point differential-0.9+10.3-9.2
Avg total182.6175.7187.8
Over 175.7557%33%75%
Win by 10+29%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
LKS Lodz
1 Liga 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL71%
HomeWWW100%
AwayWWLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %71%100%50%
Points / game88.085.090.2
Allowed / game78.368.086.0
Point differential+9.7+17.0+4.2
Avg total166.3153.0176.2
Over 175.7529%0%50%
Win by 10+43%33%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Leszno880100%92.075.4+16.6
2 Spojnia Stargard86275%91.486.8+4.6
3 LKS Lodz75271%88.078.3+9.7
4 Polonia Warszawa75271%90.691.3-0.7
5 Poznan85362%91.087.1+3.9
6 WKK Wroclaw74357%83.181.3+1.9
7 Inowroclaw74357%79.778.7+1.0
8 Pelplin74357%90.991.7-0.9
9 Lancut84450%87.084.4+2.6
10 Kotwica Kolobrzeg84450%90.589.6+0.9
11 GKS Tychy83538%77.480.8-3.4
12 Bytom72529%81.486.1-4.7
13 Krosno82625%84.488.1-3.8
14 R. Rzeszow82625%78.287.9-9.6
15 Starogard Gdanski71614%84.491.7-7.3
16 Poli. Opolska71614%81.694.1-12.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Pelplin2923211891
LKS Lodz1923292798
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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