PythiaBasketballBETA
Segunda FEBRound 7
Ponferrada hosts Jaén Paraiso on 15 November 2026 in the Segunda FEB, with the Pythia model designating the home side as favourite and projecting a 65% chance of victory and an 81-77 scoreline. Across the season both clubs have played six games: Ponferrada record 3-3, averaging 79.3 points scored and conceding 81.3, while Jaén Paraiso are 2-4, scoring 77.7 and allowing 80.3, placing them 14th and 21st respectively. At home, Ponferrada are 2-1, scoring 85.0 and allowing 78.7, whereas Jaén Paraiso have gone 0-4 on the road, averaging 76.8 points and 82.5 allowed. In the last five outings Ponferrada won twice and lost three, including a 68-92 defeat away to Algeciras, a 78-90 loss at home to Caceres and a 84-78 win away over Badajoz; Jaén Paraiso won once and lost four, with recent defeats to CBC Valladolid 75-77, Toledo 81-93 and Algeciras 66-71. The model assigns a 47% probability that Ponferrada covers the -5.5 spread and a 45% chance of the total exceeding 159.5, with a 5% likelihood of overtime. The projected total of 157.9 points sits just below the over line, suggesting a closely contested affair that will hinge on the home team's defensive effort.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (6) | 79.3 | 81.3 | 160.7 | -2.0 | 50% |
| Season at home (3) | 85.0 | 78.7 | 163.7 | +6.3 | 67% |
| Season away (3) | 73.7 | 84.0 | 157.7 | -10.3 | 33% |
| Last 10 (10) | 78.2 | 78.3 | 156.5 | -0.1 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 76.4 | 80.4 | 156.8 | -4.0 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (6) | 74.7 | 79.3 | 154.0 | -4.7 | 33% |
| vs Similar ◀ (15) | 76.5 | 79.1 | 155.6 | -2.5 | 40% |
| vs Weaker (9) | 81.9 | 75.8 | 157.7 | +6.1 | 78% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (6) | 77.7 | 80.3 | 158.0 | -2.7 | 33% |
| Season at home (2) | 79.5 | 76.0 | 155.5 | +3.5 | 100% |
| Season away (4) | 76.8 | 82.5 | 159.2 | -5.8 | 0% |
| Last 10 (6) | 77.7 | 80.3 | 158.0 | -2.7 | 33% |
| Last 5 (5) | 78.2 | 82.4 | 160.6 | -4.2 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 79.5 | 79.5 | 159.0 | +0.0 | 50% |
| vs Similar ◀ (3) | 74.0 | 78.0 | 152.0 | -4.0 | 33% |
| vs Weaker (1) | 85.0 | 89.0 | 174.0 | -4.0 | 0% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 79.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.9 | 38.9 | 75.8 | -2.0 | 40% | 30% |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 38.4 | 38.3 | 76.7 | +0.1 | 40% | 40% |
| Last 30 away (15) | 35.3 | 39.5 | 74.8 | -4.1 | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.9 | 38.6 | 77.5 | +0.3 | 40% | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.8 | 39.2 | 79.0 | +0.6 | 40% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (6) | 36.3 | 45.7 | 82.0 | -9.3 | 0% | 50% |
| vs Similar ◀ (15) | 35.6 | 38.9 | 74.5 | -3.3 | 40% | 33% |
| vs Weaker (9) | 39.3 | 34.3 | 73.7 | +5.0 | 67% | 11% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 79.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (6) | 39.7 | 44.2 | 83.8 | -4.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Last 30 at home (2) | 39.5 | 43.0 | 82.5 | -3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Last 30 away (4) | 39.8 | 44.8 | 84.5 | -5.0 | 25% | 75% |
| Last 10 (6) | 39.7 | 44.2 | 83.8 | -4.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.8 | 46.2 | 86.0 | -6.4 | 20% | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 40.0 | 43.5 | 83.5 | -3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| vs Similar ◀ (3) | 38.7 | 44.7 | 83.3 | -6.0 | 33% | 67% |
| vs Weaker (1) | 42.0 | 44.0 | 86.0 | -2.0 | 0% | 100% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferrada under 86.5 | 70.3% | 1.37 | 1.37 | - | - | - | - | +6.5pp |
| ■■■■■■ ■■■ | ■■% | ■■% | ■■% | ■■% | ■■% | ■■% | ■■% | ■■% |
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| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWWLL | 50% |
| Home | WWL | 67% |
| Away | LWL | 33% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Win % | 50% | 67% | 33% |
| Points / game | 79.3 | 85.0 | 73.7 |
| Allowed / game | 81.3 | 78.7 | 84.0 |
| Point differential | -2.0 | +6.3 | -10.3 |
| Avg total | 160.7 | 163.7 | 157.7 |
| Over 159.5 | 67% | 67% | 67% |
| Win by 10+ | 17% | 33% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWLLL | 33% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | LLLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| Win % | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 77.7 | 79.5 | 76.8 |
| Allowed / game | 80.3 | 76.0 | 82.5 |
| Point differential | -2.7 | +3.5 | -5.8 |
| Avg total | 158.0 | 155.5 | 159.2 |
| Over 159.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 40% (5) | 100% (2) | 0% (3) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Melilla | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 84.3 | 70.0 | +14.3 |
| 2 |  Benicarlo | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 77.8 | 68.2 | +9.6 |
| 3 |  Caceres | 7 | 6 | 1 | 86% | 85.3 | 76.4 | +8.9 |
| 4 |  Sant Antoni | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 80.0 | 63.8 | +16.2 |
| 5 |  CB Zaragoza | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 86.3 | 74.5 | +11.8 |
| 6 |  CBC Valladolid | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 84.7 | 76.1 | +8.6 |
| 7 |  Prat Joventut | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 80.4 | 74.4 | +6.0 |
| 8 | Leonesa | 6 | 4 | 2 | 67% | 84.8 | 80.7 | +4.2 |
| 9 |  Huesca | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 86.7 | 83.6 | +3.1 |
| 10 |  Gandia | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 80.6 | 79.9 | +0.7 |
| 11 |  Moron | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 76.9 | 76.9 | +0.0 |
| 12 | Lliria | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 70.7 | 72.6 | -1.9 |
| 13 |  Algeciras | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 81.7 | 80.3 | +1.3 |
| 14 | Ponferrada | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 79.3 | 81.3 | -2.0 |
| 15 |  Toledo | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 83.3 | 83.3 | +0.0 |
| 16 |  Cartagena | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 82.4 | 84.9 | -2.4 |
| 17 |  Clavijo | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 72.9 | 76.1 | -3.3 |
| 18 | Tres Cantos | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 71.7 | 79.4 | -7.7 |
| 19 |  Logrono | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 81.0 | 81.2 | -0.2 |
| 20 |  Spanish Basketball Academy | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 78.0 | 78.8 | -0.8 |
| 21 | Jaen Paraiso | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 77.7 | 80.3 | -2.7 |
| 22 |  Iraurgi SB | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 77.8 | 82.5 | -4.7 |
| 23 | CB Getafe | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 74.9 | 78.3 | -3.4 |
| 24 |  Castello | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 74.4 | 79.6 | -5.1 |
| 25 | Estudiantes B | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 75.0 | 81.4 | -6.4 |
| 26 | Sol Girones Bisbal | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 72.6 | 82.9 | -10.3 |
| 27 | Badajoz | 7 | 1 | 6 | 14% | 73.0 | 85.1 | -12.1 |
| 28 |  Molina Basket | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0% | 63.3 | 76.9 | -13.6 |
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