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Promo vs Gradina Tesanj Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Projected 78-76
Projected total 153.4
Final 80-59
17-14 22-14 20-12 21-19
Position#11
Record1-5
FormLWLLL
Points / game68.5
Allowed / game78.7
Promo 🏆
Bosnia-and-Herzegovina
Vs
57%
43%
■ PROM 57%■ GRAD 43%
Pythia win probability
Position#12
Record2-4
FormWLLLW
Points / game75.0
Allowed / game80.3
Bosnia-and-HerzegovinaPrvenstvo BiHRound 7· Sportska dvorana Donji Vakuf
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Promo will host Gradina Tesanj on 14 November 2026 in the Prvenstvo BiH, a matchup that feels almost evenly poised as both clubs have struggled this season, each winning only a third of their games. Promo's overall record sits at 1-5 with an average of 68.5 points scored and 78.7 allowed, while Gradina Tesanj is 2-4, averaging 75.0 points and conceding 80.3. At home, Promo has a 1-1 record, scoring 68.5 and allowing 75.0, whereas Gradina Tesanj's road form is 0-3, with 72.3 points for and 79.7 against. In their last five outings, Promo managed one win and four losses, including a 65-81 defeat at home to Basket Zivinice, while Gradina Tesanj secured two victories and three defeats, notably a 80-79 win over Zrinjski Mostar. Pythia rates Promo as the favourite with a 55% chance of victory versus 45% for Gradina Tesanj, projecting a 77-76 score and a total of 152.7 points. The model also assigns a 5% probability that the game will extend into overtime. The contest promises a tightly contested finish, with the final buzzer likely deciding the outcome.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Promo winWon
56.6%fair 1.77
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Gradina Tesanj winLost
43.4%fair 2.30
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:45 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PromoBosnia-and-HerzegovinaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPromo
Date
Competition
Leotar Trebinje
#8
W
98-96
98
96
+2
86avg 64
A21/03
Prvenstvo BiH
Jahorina
#7
L
61-74
61
74
-13
42avg 64
A04/04
Prvenstvo BiH
Mrkonjic Grad
#14
L
83-87
83
87
-4
66avg 64
H11/04
Prvenstvo BiH
Student Igokea
#10
W
98-92
98
92
+6
87avg 64
A18/04
Prvenstvo BiH
Zrinjski Mostar
#6
L
65-86
65
86
-21
37avg 64
A05/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Leotar Trebinje
#5
L
60-68
60
68
-8
49avg 64
A10/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Borac Banja Luka
#7
W
72-69
72
69
+3
68avg 64
H17/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Orlovik
#2
L
68-83
68
83
-15
63avg 64
A24/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Basket Zivinice
#3
L
65-81
65
81
-16
50avg 64
H01/11
Prvenstvo BiH
Igman
#9
L
81-85
81
85
-4
no box
A08/11
Prvenstvo BiH
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-19
22-26
28-20
25-31
14-23
12-19
17-18
18-14
18-18
21-23
24-17
20-29
25-24
28-29
16-22
29-17
17-23
17-21
20-24
11-18
22-17
17-21
8-16
13-14
14-25
19-21
23-14
16-9
19-29
18-17
20-19
11-18
14-31
17-13
16-22
18-15
14-16
19-20
20-25
28-24
157.2Avg total
75.1Scored
82.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)68.578.7147.2-10.217%
Season at home (2)68.575.0143.5-6.550%
Season away (4)68.580.5149.0-12.00%
Last 10 (10)75.182.1157.2-7.030%
Last 5 (5)69.277.2146.4-8.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (21)74.982.6157.5-7.733%
vs Similar ◀ (9)75.080.7155.7-5.733%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Gradina Tesanj) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Gradina TesanjBosnia-and-HerzegovinaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTesanj
Date
Competition
Siroki Brijeg
#1
L
69-76
69
76
-7
46avg 65
A05/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Drina
#10
W
87-73
87
73
+14
94avg 65
H11/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Mrkonjic Grad
#14
L
66-76
66
76
-10
57avg 65
A18/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Sloboda
#4
L
66-91
66
91
-25
62avg 65
H24/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Radnicki Gorazde
#13
L
82-87
82
87
-5
no box
A01/11
Prvenstvo BiH
Zrinjski Mostar
#6
W
80-79
80
79
+1
no box
H08/11
Prvenstvo BiH
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-23
21-17
13-18
17-18
19-19
31-17
20-20
17-17
16-20
19-15
17-18
14-23
21-21
18-20
13-26
14-24
26-27
20-25
12-16
24-19
12-17
24-23
20-21
24-18
155.3Avg total
75.0Scored
80.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)75.080.3155.3-5.333%
Season at home (3)77.781.0158.7-3.367%
Season away (3)72.379.7152.0-7.30%
Last 10 (6)75.080.3155.3-5.333%
Last 5 (5)76.281.2157.4-5.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)71.782.0153.7-10.333%
vs Similar ◀ (2)84.580.0164.5+4.550%
vs Weaker (1)66.076.0142.0-10.00%
This opponent (Promo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 153.5Actual: Under 153.5
Over 153.5
48.9%
Under 153.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 158.5Actual: Under 158.5
Over 158.5
37.1%
Under 158.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 163.5Actual: Under 163.5
Over 163.5
26.6%
Under 163.5
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Promo total 77.5Actual: Promo over 77.5
Over 77.5
50.3%
Under 77.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Promo total 81.5Actual: Promo under 81.5
Over 81.5
35.1%
Under 81.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Promo total 85.5Actual: Promo under 85.5
Over 85.5
22.1%
Under 85.5
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gradina Tesanj total 73Actual: Gradina Tesanj under 73
Over 73
60.6%
Under 73
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gradina Tesanj total 77Actual: Gradina Tesanj under 77
Over 77
44.7%
Under 77
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gradina Tesanj total 81Actual: Gradina Tesanj under 81
Over 81
29.7%
Under 81
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Promo -3Actual: Promo -3
PROM -3
47.5%
GRAD +3
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
PROM
No market prices yet.
GRAD
No market prices yet.
Spread Promo 0Actual: Promo 0
PROM 0
56.6%
GRAD 0
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
PROM
No market prices yet.
GRAD
No market prices yet.
Spread Promo +3Actual: Promo +3
PROM +3
65.5%
GRAD -3
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
PROM
No market prices yet.
GRAD
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -4.5-4.5Q1: -2.5-2.5Q2Q2: -2.0-2.0Q2: +2.7+2.7Q3Q3: -0.5-0.5Q3: -4.0-4.0Q4Q4: +0.0+0.0Q4: -1.5-1.5
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -4.5-4.5Q1: -2.5-2.5Q2Q2: -2.0-2.0Q2: +2.7+2.7Q3Q3: -0.5-0.5Q3: -4.0-4.0Q4Q4: +0.0+0.0Q4: -1.5-1.5
PromoGradina Tesanj
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PromoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Leotar Trebinje
#8
D
45-45
45
45
+0
A21/03
Prvenstvo BiH
Jahorina
#7
L
26-42
26
42
-16
A04/04
Prvenstvo BiH
Mrkonjic Grad
#14
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H11/04
Prvenstvo BiH
Student Igokea
#10
D
53-53
53
53
+0
A18/04
Prvenstvo BiH
Zrinjski Mostar
#6
L
34-44
34
44
-10
A05/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Leotar Trebinje
#5
W
39-38
39
38
+1
A10/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Borac Banja Luka
#7
L
33-46
33
46
-13
H17/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Orlovik
#2
L
37-46
37
46
-9
A24/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Basket Zivinice
#3
L
31-44
31
44
-13
H01/11
Prvenstvo BiH
Igman
#9
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A08/11
Prvenstvo BiH
80.5Avg total
37.0Scored
43.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.442.480.8-4.033%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.142.984.0-1.743%-
Last 30 away (16)35.942.077.9-6.125%-
Last 10 (10)37.043.580.5-6.510%-
Last 5 (5)34.642.076.6-7.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (21)37.543.480.9-5.924%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)40.340.180.4+0.256%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Gradina Tesanj) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Gradina TesanjLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Siroki Brijeg
#1
L
39-40
39
40
-1
A05/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Drina
#10
W
50-36
50
36
+14
H11/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Mrkonjic Grad
#14
D
35-35
35
35
+0
A18/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Sloboda
#4
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H24/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Radnicki Gorazde
#13
L
46-52
46
52
-6
A01/11
Prvenstvo BiH
Zrinjski Mostar
#6
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H08/11
Prvenstvo BiH
81.5Avg total
40.8Scored
40.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (6)40.840.781.5+0.217%-
Last 30 at home (3)41.739.080.7+2.733%-
Last 30 away (3)40.042.382.3-2.30%-
Last 10 (6)40.840.781.5+0.217%-
Last 5 (5)41.240.882.0+0.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)38.040.378.3-2.30%-
vs Similar ◀ (2)48.044.092.0+4.050%-
vs Weaker (1)35.035.070.0+0.00%-
This opponent (Promo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Promotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Promo: 74.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.6 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.4 points a game
51%
31%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.417.9
50.6%
53.9%35.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.09.5
35.2%
32.9%28.5
🏀 Free throws17.310.6
61.3%
67.4%10.6
They take 62.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Gradina Tesanjtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Gradina Tesanj: 68.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.5 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.4 points a game
51%
31%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers29.515.8
53.4%
53.9%31.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.08.0
32.0%
32.9%24.0
🏀 Free throws17.512.8
72.9%
67.4%12.8
They take 54.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/4 games with a box score before 14 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Promo
LLLWLLWLLW
Gradina Tesanj
WLLLWL
#11
League position
#12
-7.1
Net rating
-8.9
91.7
Offensive rating
87.2
98.8
Defensive rating
96.1
51.5%
Effective FG%
50.9%
55.8%
Opp. effective FG%
50.6%
15.1%
Turnover %
17.6%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.32
35.2%
3-point %
32.0%
44.9%
Assist %
81.1%
30%
Form (last 10/6)
33%

Profile

Offence91.7 · 87.2Defence98.8 · 96.1Shooting51.5% · 50.9%3-point %35.2% · 32.0%Ball care15.1% · 17.6%Free throws0.28 · 0.32Form (last 10/6)30% · 33%
■ Promo   ■ Gradina Tesanj
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Promo wins
0
Gradina Tesanj wins
No previous meetings.
Promolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26AIgman81-85
01/11/26HBasket Zivinice65-81
24/10/26AOrlovik68-83
17/10/26HBorac Banja Luka72-69
10/10/26ALeotar Trebinje60-68
05/10/26AZrinjski Mostar65-86
18/04/26AStudent Igokea98-92
11/04/26HMrkonjic Grad83-87
04/04/26AJahorina61-74
21/03/26ALeotar Trebinje98-96
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26HZrinjski Mostar80-79
01/11/26ARadnicki Gorazde82-87
24/10/26HSloboda66-91
18/10/26AMrkonjic Grad66-76
11/10/26HDrina87-73
05/10/26ASiroki Brijeg69-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Promo
Prvenstvo BiH 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL17%
HomeWL50%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games624
Win %17%50%0%
Points / game68.568.568.5
Allowed / game78.775.080.5
Point differential-10.2-6.5-12.0
Avg total147.2143.5149.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Gradina Tesanj
Prvenstvo BiH 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Losses (last 6)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW33%
HomeWLW67%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %33%67%0%
Points / game75.077.772.3
Allowed / game80.381.079.7
Point differential-5.3-3.3-7.3
Avg total155.3158.7152.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Basket Zivinice65183%76.271.5+4.7
2 Siroki Brijeg54180%85.272.4+12.8
3 Sloboda64267%87.076.0+11.0
4 Orlovik64267%81.578.5+3.0
5 Leotar Trebinje64267%69.771.7-2.0
6 Zrinjski Mostar74357%78.974.4+4.4
7 Borac Banja Luka74357%80.075.9+4.1
8 Slavija74357%84.682.6+2.0
9 Igman74357%86.785.9+0.9
10 Gradina Tesanj62433%75.080.3-5.3
11 Drina72529%75.481.0-5.6
12 Radnicki Gorazde61517%81.887.3-5.5
13 Promo61517%68.578.7-10.2
14 Mrkonjic Grad61517%72.785.8-13.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Promo1722202180
Gradina Tesanj1414121959
← all games of the day
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