Randers vs Team FOG Naestved Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 12 Nov 2026

Tip-off: 18:00

Projected 86-94

Projected total 180.6

Final 98-84

24-25 23-19 28-14 23-26

Position#5

Record6-3

FormLWLWW

Points / game95.3

Allowed / game86.2

Randers 🏆

23%

77%

■ RAND 23%■ TEAM 77%

Pythia win probability

Team FOG Naestved

Position#1

Record10-0

FormWWWWW

Points / game100.5

Allowed / game70.1

Basketligaen· Arena Randers

Other2026-27

Meetings · Randers v Team FOG Naestved

Sections

Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Randers hosts Team FOG Naestved on 12 November 2026 in the Basketligaen, and the Pythia model names the unbeaten Naestved as the clear favourite, a rating driven by their 10-0 season record, 100.5 points scored per game and only 70.1 points allowed. Randers, 6-3 overall, averages 95.3 points and concedes 86.2, with a 3-1 home record and 100.8 points per game at home. Naestved's road form is flawless, 5-0 with 103.8 points per game and 67.8 allowed, and their last five games were all victories, including a 113-80 win over Bears Academy. The teams are even in head-to-head history, 5-5, though Randers last defeated Naestved 122-94 in April. Pythia projects a 23% chance for Randers to win against a 77% chance for Naestved, with a 86-94 scoreline and 180.6 total points. The home line is 5.0, and the model gives a 37% probability that Randers covers, while the over line of 181.5 carries a 47% chance; an overtime scenario has a 4% likelihood.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Randers winWon

22.8%fair 4.38

Best odds2.90

Implied34.4%

Edge-11.6pp

Team FOG Naestved winLost

77.2%fair 1.30

Best odds1.44

Implied65.6%

Edge+11.6pp

Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 18:15 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Randers

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormRanders

Date

Competition

Copenhagen

97-63

+34

105avg 89

H20/04

Basketligaen

Holbaek-Stenhus

100-84

100

+16

97avg 89

A17/09

Basketligaen

Svendborg

83-96

-13

75avg 89

H23/09

Basketligaen

Vaerlose

#10

89-85 OT

87avg 89

A27/09

Basketligaen

Bears Academy

#11

117-73

117

+44

123avg 89

H03/10

Basketligaen

Bakken Bears

86-103

103

-17

75avg 89

A10/10

Basketligaen

BMS Herlev

#12

93-71

+22

94avg 89

H18/10

Basketligaen

Horsens

84-94

-10

73avg 89

A23/10

Basketligaen

Gladsaxe

110-80

110

+30

109avg 89

H30/10

Basketligaen

Copenhagen

96-90

no box

A07/11

Basketligaen

30-12

18-9

17-22

32-20

21-22

33-32

26-12

20-18

22-10

15-33

25-29

21-24

13-16

23-20

25-14

12-23

21-16

24-22

38-15

34-20

27-27

14-27

25-25

20-24

18-22

31-14

19-23

25-12

25-28

21-18

20-22

18-26

30-16

27-17

17-27

36-20

29-22

21-22

25-15

21-31

179.4Avg total

95.5Scored

83.9Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (9)	95.3	86.2	181.6	+9.1	67%
Season at home (4)	100.8	80.0	180.8	+20.8	75%
Season away (5)	91.0	91.2	182.2	-0.2	60%
Last 10 (10)	95.5	83.9	179.4	+11.6	70%
Last 5 (5)	93.8	87.6	181.4	+6.2	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)	86.0	92.9	178.9	-6.9	38%
vs Similar (8)	91.6	93.1	184.8	-1.5	38%
vs Weaker (14)	99.0	80.1	179.1	+18.9	93%

This opponent (Team FOG Naestved) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Team FOG Naestved Denmark

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormNaestved

Date

Competition

Holbaek-Stenhus

117-56

117

+61

116avg 93

H24/09

Basketligaen

Horsens

101-73

101

+28

88avg 93

A27/09

Basketligaen

Copenhagen

90-66

+24

91avg 93

H30/09

Basketligaen

BMS Herlev

#12

117-55

117

+62

123avg 93

A10/10

Basketligaen

Svendborg

86-83

79avg 93

H15/10

Basketligaen

Vejen

107-82

107

+25

103avg 93

A19/10

Basketligaen

Gladsaxe

99-67

+32

96avg 93

A24/10

Basketligaen

Bears Academy

#11

113-80

113

+33

113avg 93

H28/10

Basketligaen

Vaerlose

#10

95-62

+33

no box

A04/11

Basketligaen

Bakken Bears

80-77

no box

H08/11

Basketligaen

27-21

32-10

27-10

31-15

28-21

24-15

18-22

25-12

24-12

18-24

23-18

27-17

35-12

30-11

25-15

28-18

22-16

15-21

21-28

22-20

26-23

31-15

28-24

19-16

27-12

30-14

23-25

35-15

21-20

25-26

32-19

16-22

21-8

27-14

31-18

20-19

21-19

17-24

22-15

170.6Avg total

100.5Scored

70.1Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (10)	100.5	70.1	170.6	+30.4	100%
Season at home (5)	97.2	72.4	169.6	+24.8	100%
Season away (5)	103.8	67.8	171.6	+36.0	100%
Last 10 (10)	100.5	70.1	170.6	+30.4	100%
Last 5 (5)	98.8	73.6	172.4	+25.2	100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)	85.9	97.3	183.1	-11.4	29%
vs Similar (9)	91.8	89.7	181.4	+2.1	78%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)	101.7	78.1	179.8	+23.6	93%

This opponent (Randers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Over/Under 175Actual: Over 175

Over 175

62.8%

Under 175

37.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 180.25 · main lineActual: Over 180.25

Over 180.25

no forecast

@ 1.80

Under 180.25

no forecast

@ 1.81

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.80

Under

1xBet

1.81

Over/Under 185Actual: Under 185

Over 185

38.4%

@ 2.20-3.7pp

Under 185

61.6%

@ 1.60+3.7pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.20

Under

Bet365

1.60

Marathon Be

1.56

📊 3. Team Totals

Randers total 83.5Actual: Randers over 83.5

Over 83.5

59.1%

@ 1.50-2.8pp

Under 83.5

40.9%

@ 2.70+2.8pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.50

Bet365

1.41

1xBet

1.41

Under

Bet365

2.70

Betano

2.37

1xBet

2.29

Randers total 87.5 · main lineActual: Randers over 87.5

Over 87.5

43.7%

@ 1.91-5.0pp

Under 87.5

56.3%

@ 1.83+5.0pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.91

BetVictor

1.91

Marathon Be

1.89

Bet365

1.83

1xBet

1.76

Under

Bet365

1.83

BetVictor

1.80

Marathon Be

1.79

Betano

1.75

1xBet

1.68

Randers total 91.5Actual: Randers over 91.5

Over 91.5

29.4%

@ 2.50-7.3pp

Under 91.5

70.6%

@ 1.54+7.3pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.50

1xBet

2.43

Bet365

2.35

Under

Bet365

1.54

Betano

1.45

1xBet

1.37

Team FOG Naestved total 89.5Actual: Team FOG Naestved under 89.5

Over 89.5

69.0%

@ 1.47+6.7pp

Under 89.5

31.0%

@ 2.47-6.7pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.47

1xBet

1.41

Under

Betano

2.47

1xBet

2.28

Team FOG Naestved total 93.5 · main lineActual: Team FOG Naestved under 93.5

Over 93.5

53.9%

@ 1.88+4.7pp

Under 93.5

46.1%

@ 1.83-4.7pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

BetVictor

1.88

Marathon Be

1.87

Betano

1.85

Bet365

1.83

1xBet

1.77

Under

Bet365

1.83

Betano

1.82

Marathon Be

1.81

BetVictor

1.80

1xBet

1.68

Team FOG Naestved total 97.5Actual: Team FOG Naestved under 97.5

Over 97.5

38.2%

@ 2.50+2.0pp

Under 97.5

61.8%

@ 1.45-2.0pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.50

1xBet

2.45

Under

Betano

1.45

1xBet

1.36

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Randers +3.5Actual: Randers +3.5

RAND +3.5

31.7%

@ 2.31-8.3pp

TEAM -3.5

68.3%

@ 1.68+8.3pp

Best 5 market prices

RAND

Pinnacle

2.31

1xBet

2.16

Betano

2.15

Bet365

2.05

TEAM

Bet365

1.68

Betano

1.60

Marathon Be

1.57

Pinnacle

1.54

1xBet

1.50

Spread Randers +6.5 · main lineActual: Randers +6.5

RAND +6.5

42.6%

@ 1.85-8.2pp

TEAM -6.5

57.4%

@ 1.91+8.2pp

Best 5 market prices

RAND

BetVictor

1.85

Pinnacle

1.84

Betano

1.83

Bet365

1.83

Betfair

1.83

TEAM

Marathon Be

1.91

Pinnacle

1.90

SBO

1.87

Betano

1.85

BetVictor

1.85

Spread Randers +9.5Actual: Randers +9.5

RAND +9.5

53.8%

@ 1.57-8.6pp

TEAM -9.5

46.2%

@ 2.55+8.6pp

Best 5 market prices

RAND

Betano

1.57

Marathon Be

1.51

Bet365

1.47

1xBet

1.42

TEAM

Bet365

2.55

1xBet

2.35

Betano

2.20

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

RandersTeam FOG Naestved

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 45.5
Last 30 (30)	23.6	20.4	44.0	+3.1	50%	47%
Last 30 at home (14)	25.6	19.5	45.1	+6.1	64%	43%
Last 30 away (16)	21.8	21.2	43.0	+0.5	38%	50%
Last 10 (10)	23.6	19.1	42.7	+4.5	50%	40%
Last 5 (5)	25.8	23.0	48.8	+2.8	40%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)	20.2	23.9	44.1	-3.6	25%	50%
vs Similar (8)	25.2	21.0	46.2	+4.2	38%	62%
vs Weaker (14)	24.5	18.1	42.6	+6.4	71%	36%

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 45.5
Last 30 (30)	23.6	22.4	45.9	+1.2	57%	53%
Last 30 at home (16)	25.1	22.1	47.2	+3.0	62%	62%
Last 30 away (14)	21.8	22.6	44.4	-0.9	50%	43%
Last 10 (10)	25.0	17.5	42.5	+7.5	90%	40%
Last 5 (5)	22.4	18.4	40.8	+4.0	80%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)	20.4	25.4	45.9	-5.0	29%	71%
vs Similar (9)	21.8	24.8	46.6	-3.0	44%	44%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)	26.3	19.3	45.6	+7.0	79%	50%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 45.5
Last 30 (30)	23.8	22.1	45.9	+1.7	60%	53%
Last 30 at home (14)	24.8	23.1	47.9	+1.6	57%	64%
Last 30 away (16)	22.9	21.1	44.1	+1.8	62%	44%
Last 10 (10)	22.7	21.4	44.1	+1.3	70%	30%
Last 5 (5)	22.8	19.6	42.4	+3.2	60%	0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)	23.2	25.2	48.5	-2.0	50%	62%
vs Similar (8)	21.2	21.9	43.1	-0.6	50%	50%
vs Weaker (14)	25.6	20.4	45.9	+5.2	71%	50%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 45.5
Last 30 (30)	23.2	21.0	44.2	+2.1	67%	43%
Last 30 at home (16)	22.5	22.1	44.6	+0.4	62%	44%
Last 30 away (14)	23.9	19.9	43.8	+4.1	71%	43%
Last 10 (10)	25.7	15.3	41.0	+10.4	100%	30%
Last 5 (5)	23.2	16.4	39.6	+6.8	100%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)	20.7	26.0	46.7	-5.3	43%	57%
vs Similar (9)	22.0	22.8	44.8	-0.8	56%	44%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)	25.1	17.4	42.6	+7.7	86%	36%

RandersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Copenhagen

48-21

+27

H20/04

Basketligaen

Holbaek-Stenhus

54-54

A17/09

Basketligaen

Svendborg

37-43

-6

H23/09

Basketligaen

Vaerlose

#10

36-36

A27/09

Basketligaen

Bears Academy

#11

45-38

H03/10

Basketligaen

Bakken Bears

41-54

-13

A10/10

Basketligaen

BMS Herlev

#12

49-36

+13

H18/10

Basketligaen

Horsens

46-46

A23/10

Basketligaen

Gladsaxe

57-33

+24

H30/10

Basketligaen

Copenhagen

50-44

A07/11

Basketligaen

86.8Avg total

46.3Scored

40.5Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 89.75
Last 30 (30)	47.4	42.5	89.9	+4.9	67%	57%
Last 30 at home (14)	50.4	42.6	93.1	+7.8	79%	64%
Last 30 away (16)	44.7	42.4	87.1	+2.3	56%	50%
Last 10 (10)	46.3	40.5	86.8	+5.8	50%	50%
Last 5 (5)	48.6	42.6	91.2	+6.0	60%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)	43.5	49.1	92.6	-5.6	50%	62%
vs Similar (8)	46.5	42.9	89.4	+3.6	50%	50%
vs Weaker (14)	50.1	38.5	88.6	+11.6	86%	57%

This opponent (Team FOG Naestved) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Team FOG NaestvedLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Holbaek-Stenhus

59-31

+28

H24/09

Basketligaen

Horsens

59-36

+23

A27/09

Basketligaen

Copenhagen

49-24

+25

H30/09

Basketligaen

BMS Herlev

#12

62-29

+33

A10/10

Basketligaen

Svendborg

50-34

+16

H15/10

Basketligaen

Vejen

48-43

A19/10

Basketligaen

Gladsaxe

46-28

+18

A24/10

Basketligaen

Bears Academy

#11

56-35

+21

H28/10

Basketligaen

Vaerlose

#10

37-30

A04/11

Basketligaen

Bakken Bears

41-38

H08/11

Basketligaen

83.5Avg total

50.7Scored

32.8Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 89.75
Last 30 (30)	46.7	43.4	90.1	+3.3	57%	57%
Last 30 at home (16)	47.6	44.2	91.8	+3.4	56%	62%
Last 30 away (14)	45.7	42.5	88.2	+3.2	57%	50%
Last 10 (10)	50.7	32.8	83.5	+17.9	100%	50%
Last 5 (5)	45.6	34.8	80.4	+10.8	100%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)	41.1	51.4	92.6	-10.3	14%	57%
vs Similar (9)	43.8	47.6	91.3	-3.8	44%	56%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)	51.4	36.7	88.1	+14.7	86%	57%

This opponent (Randers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

1st half winnerActual: Randers win

RAND win

no forecast

@ 2.68

TEAM win

no forecast

@ 1.52

1st half Spread Randers +3 · main lineActual: Randers +3

RAND +3

no forecast

@ 1.91

TEAM -3

no forecast

@ 1.85

1st half Over/Under 89.75 · main lineActual: Over 89.75

Over

no forecast

@ 1.81

Under

no forecast

@ 1.80

Randers 1st half total 43.5 · main lineActual: Randers over 43.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.92

Under

no forecast

@ 1.86

Team FOG Naestved 1st half total 46.5 · main lineActual: Team FOG Naestved under 46.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.85

Under

no forecast

@ 1.91

1st half: RAND + total 90.5

RAND & over

no forecast

@ 4.75

RAND & under

no forecast

@ 5.00

1st half: Draw + total 90.5

Draw & over

no forecast

@ 29.00

Draw & under

no forecast

@ 31.00

1st half: TEAM + total 90.5

TEAM & over

no forecast

@ 2.90

TEAM & under

no forecast

@ 3.05

1st half Over/Under 88.5Actual: Over 88.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.74

Under

no forecast

@ 2.20

1st half Over/Under 91Push

Over

no forecast

@ 1.94

Under

no forecast

@ 1.80

1st half Spread Randers +2Actual: Randers +2

RAND +2

no forecast

@ 2.12

TEAM -2

no forecast

@ 1.65

1st half Spread Randers +4Actual: Randers +4

RAND +4

no forecast

@ 1.76

TEAM -4

no forecast

@ 2.01

1st half Over/Under 92.5Actual: Under 92.5

Over

no forecast

@ 2.20

Under

no forecast

@ 1.66

1st half Over/Under 86.5Actual: Over 86.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.45

Under

no forecast

@ 2.60

1st half Spread Randers +0.5Actual: Randers +0.5

RAND +0.5

no forecast

@ 2.30

TEAM -0.5

no forecast

@ 1.55

1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Randers (regulation)

RAND

no forecast

@ 2.63

Draw

no forecast

@ 18.00

TEAM

no forecast

@ 1.55

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 44.75
Last 30 (30)	21.9	21.3	43.2	+0.6	43%	37%
Last 30 at home (14)	22.5	20.9	43.4	+1.6	50%	36%
Last 30 away (16)	21.4	21.6	43.0	-0.2	38%	38%
Last 10 (10)	23.7	20.4	44.1	+3.3	40%	30%
Last 5 (5)	21.2	22.4	43.6	-1.2	20%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)	21.8	21.6	43.4	+0.1	38%	38%
vs Similar (8)	21.2	21.9	43.1	-0.6	38%	50%
vs Weaker (14)	22.4	20.7	43.1	+1.6	50%	29%

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 44.75
Last 30 (30)	23.5	20.3	43.8	+3.2	63%	47%
Last 30 at home (16)	23.5	21.4	44.9	+2.1	56%	56%
Last 30 away (14)	23.5	19.0	42.5	+4.5	71%	36%
Last 10 (10)	24.4	17.4	41.8	+7.0	60%	20%
Last 5 (5)	26.0	18.6	44.6	+7.4	60%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)	20.7	22.6	43.3	-1.9	43%	43%
vs Similar (9)	22.4	19.7	42.1	+2.8	67%	44%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)	25.6	19.6	45.1	+6.0	71%	50%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 44.75
Last 30 (30)	23.8	22.8	46.6	+1.0	50%	60%
Last 30 at home (14)	26.4	22.1	48.5	+4.2	57%	79%
Last 30 away (16)	21.5	23.4	44.9	-1.9	44%	44%
Last 10 (10)	23.9	21.8	45.7	+2.1	50%	50%
Last 5 (5)	24.0	22.6	46.6	+1.4	40%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)	20.8	22.1	42.9	-1.4	50%	38%
vs Similar (8)	23.9	28.4	52.2	-4.5	12%	75%
vs Weaker (14)	25.4	20.0	45.4	+5.4	71%	64%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 44.75
Last 30 (30)	23.8	21.5	45.3	+2.2	57%	47%
Last 30 at home (16)	24.4	21.1	45.5	+3.2	56%	44%
Last 30 away (14)	23.1	22.0	45.1	+1.1	57%	50%
Last 10 (10)	25.4	19.9	45.3	+5.5	70%	60%
Last 5 (5)	27.2	20.2	47.4	+7.0	80%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)	21.7	21.1	42.9	+0.6	43%	29%
vs Similar (9)	25.6	22.4	48.0	+3.1	67%	56%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)	23.6	21.1	44.8	+2.5	57%	50%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 89.5
Last 30 (30)	45.7	44.1	89.7	+1.6	47%	50%
Last 30 at home (14)	48.9	43.0	91.9	+5.9	57%	64%
Last 30 away (16)	42.9	45.0	87.9	-2.1	38%	38%
Last 10 (10)	47.6	42.2	89.8	+5.4	50%	60%
Last 5 (5)	45.2	45.0	90.2	+0.2	40%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)	42.5	43.8	86.2	-1.2	38%	38%
vs Similar (8)	45.1	50.2	95.4	-5.1	12%	62%
vs Weaker (14)	47.8	40.7	88.5	+7.1	71%	50%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 89.5
Last 30 (30)	47.3	41.8	89.1	+5.4	67%	50%
Last 30 at home (16)	47.9	42.6	90.4	+5.3	62%	50%
Last 30 away (14)	46.6	41.0	87.6	+5.6	71%	50%
Last 10 (10)	49.8	37.3	87.1	+12.5	70%	40%
Last 5 (5)	53.2	38.8	92.0	+14.4	80%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)	42.4	43.7	86.1	-1.3	43%	43%
vs Similar (9)	48.0	42.1	90.1	+5.9	78%	44%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)	49.2	40.7	89.9	+8.5	71%	57%

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.

RAND win + total 180.5

🔒 Pro

TEAM win + total 180.5

🔒 Pro

Overtime

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: RAND leads at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: level at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: TEAM leads at half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half

🔒 Pro

Team with the highest-scoring quarter

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring half

🔒 Pro

Double chance (regulation)

🔒 Pro

Quarters won (RAND:TEAM): RAND wins more

🔒 Pro

🔒 12 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Team FOG Naestved -2	74.0%	1.55	Bet365 1.55	-	-	-	-	+14.2pp	Lost
Team FOG Naestved +3.5	83.9%	1.32	Betano 1.32	-	-	-	-	+14.1pp	Lost
Team FOG Naestved +2.5	82.0%	1.31	Betano 1.31	-	-	-	-	+12.0pp	Lost
Team FOG Naestved -1.5	74.9%	1.47	Bet365 1.54	Betano 1.45	1xBet 1.41	-	-	+11.9pp	Lost
Team FOG Naestved win	77.2%	1.39	WilliamHill 1.44	Pinnacle 1.41	1xBet 1.40	Betano 1.40	Betfair 1.40	+11.6pp	Lost
Team FOG Naestved +1.5	79.1%	1.35	Betano 1.35	-	-	-	-	+11.3pp	Lost
Team FOG Naestved -2.5	71.2%	1.51	Bet365 1.60	Betano 1.52	1xBet 1.42	-	-	+10.8pp	Lost
Team FOG Naestved +6.5	89.5%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+10.7pp	Lost
Team FOG Naestved (regulation)	74.8%	1.42	Betano 1.44	1xBet 1.41	Marathon Bet 1.41	-	-	+10.6pp	Lost
Randers under 97.5	86.3%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+10.2pp	Lost
Randers under 95.5	82.0%	1.29	Bet365 1.29	-	-	-	-	+10.1pp	Lost
Randers under 99.5	89.9%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+9.3pp	Won
Team FOG Naestved -3	70.4%	1.57	Bet365 1.64	Pinnacle 1.51	-	-	-	+9.1pp	Lost
Randers under 92.5	73.7%	1.39	Bet365 1.43	Betano 1.42	1xBet 1.32	-	-	+8.8pp	Lost
Team FOG Naestved +10.5	94.3%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+8.8pp	Lost
Randers under 98.5	88.2%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+8.7pp	Won
Randers under 93.5	76.7%	1.33	Bet365 1.40	1xBet 1.27	-	-	-	+8.7pp	Lost
Randers under 94.5	79.4%	1.31	Bet365 1.31	-	-	-	-	+8.5pp	Lost
Team FOG Naestved +15.5	97.5%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+8.1pp	Won
Randers under 96.5	84.3%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+8.1pp	Lost
Team FOG Naestved over 84.5	83.8%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+7.7pp	Lost
Team FOG Naestved over 82.5	88.2%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+7.7pp	Won
Team FOG Naestved over 87.5	75.6%	1.30	1xBet 1.30	-	-	-	-	+7.6pp	Lost
Randers under 91.5	70.6%	1.45	Bet365 1.54	Betano 1.45	1xBet 1.37	-	-	+7.3pp	Lost
Team FOG Naestved over 83.5	86.1%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+7.3pp	Won
Randers under 100.5	91.3%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	+6.9pp	Won
Team FOG Naestved over 81.5	90.0%	1.12	Bet365 1.12	-	-	-	-	+6.9pp	Won
Team FOG Naestved over 88.5	72.4%	1.38	Bet365 1.40	1xBet 1.35	-	-	-	+6.8pp	Lost
Team FOG Naestved over 76.5	96.1%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+6.7pp	Won
Team FOG Naestved over 74.5	97.5%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+6.7pp	Won
Team FOG Naestved over 78.5	94.2%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+6.7pp	Won
Team FOG Naestved +20.5	98.9%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+6.7pp	Won
Team FOG Naestved over 86.5	78.6%	1.29	Bet365 1.29	-	-	-	-	+6.7pp	Lost
Team FOG Naestved over 75.5	96.9%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+6.6pp	Won
Team FOG Naestved over 80.5	91.6%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+6.6pp	Won
Team FOG Naestved over 77.5	95.2%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+6.5pp	Won
Team FOG Naestved over 73.5	98.0%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+6.5pp	Won
Team FOG Naestved over 79.5	93.0%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+6.4pp	Won
Team FOG Naestved over 72.5	98.4%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+6.2pp	Won
Under 191.5	75.1%	1.32	Bet365 1.32	-	-	-	-	+4.6pp	Won
Under 196.5	83.4%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+4.5pp	Won
Overtime: no	96.0%	1.02	Betano 1.02	-	-	-	-	+4.3pp	Won
Over 156.5	92.8%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+3.4pp	Won
Randers over 71.5	92.2%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+2.8pp	Won
Randers +24.5	91.7%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+2.7pp	Won
Randers over 72.5	90.6%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+2.7pp	Won
Over 161.5	87.5%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+1.4pp	Won
Randers over 73.5	88.9%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+1.4pp	Won
Randers over 74.5	86.9%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+1.4pp	Won
Over 166.5	80.0%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+1.1pp	Won
Randers over 76.5	82.2%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	+0.7pp	Won
Randers over 75.5	84.6%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	-0.4pp	Won
Over 171.5	70.3%	1.31	Bet365 1.31	-	-	-	-	-0.6pp	Won
Randers +19.5	83.5%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	-0.8pp	Won
Randers over 77.5	79.5%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	-1.0pp	Won
Randers over 78.5	76.6%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	-1.2pp	Won
Randers +14.5	70.7%	1.27	Betano 1.31	Bet365 1.23	-	-	-	-1.9pp	Won
Randers over 80.5	70.1%	1.28	Bet365 1.28	-	-	-	-	-2.3pp	Won
Randers over 79.5	73.4%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	-2.8pp	Won

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Randerstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Randers: 95.1 points a game scored

🏀🏀49%

🏀🏀🏀32%

🏀19%

🏀🏀 2-pointers46.6 pts a game · 49% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.0 pts a game · 32% of the points

🏀 Free throws18.5 pts a game · 19% of the points

League average for comparison: 86.0 points a game

52%

31%

17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	40.8	23.3	57.1%	55.2%	46.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.9	10.0	35.8%	31.2%	30.0
🏀 Free throws	22.9	18.5	80.8%	68.0%	18.5

They take 68.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Team FOG Naestvedtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Team FOG Naestved: 99.4 points a game scored

🏀🏀61%

🏀🏀🏀21%

🏀18%

🏀🏀 2-pointers60.2 pts a game · 61% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.3 pts a game · 21% of the points

🏀 Free throws17.9 pts a game · 18% of the points

League average for comparison: 86.0 points a game

52%

31%

17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	49.1	30.1	61.3%	55.2%	60.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	25.3	7.1	28.1%	31.2%	21.3
🏀 Free throws	25.1	17.9	71.3%	68.0%	17.9

They take 74.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	38.8	19.4	50.0%	55.2%	38.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	33.0	9.8	29.7%	31.2%	29.4
🏀 Free throws	22.2	14.5	65.3%	68.0%	14.5

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	37.5	18.7	49.9%	55.2%	37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	29.8	8.1	27.2%	31.2%	24.3
🏀 Free throws	19.6	12.8	65.3%	68.0%	12.8

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	38.8	21.6	55.7%	55.2%	43.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.8	10.0	35.9%	31.2%	29.9
🏀 Free throws	23.2	18.4	79.1%	68.0%	18.4

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	44.8	26.6	59.3%	55.2%	53.1
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.0	8.2	31.7%	31.2%	24.7
🏀 Free throws	25.4	18.3	72.2%	68.0%	18.3

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	37.9	20.3	53.6%	55.2%	40.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	30.7	10.3	33.6%	31.2%	30.9
🏀 Free throws	22.0	14.7	67.1%	68.0%	14.7

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	40.0	20.7	51.8%	55.2%	41.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	32.2	10.4	32.3%	31.2%	31.2
🏀 Free throws	21.1	14.6	69.1%	68.0%	14.6

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 12 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.

Randers

WWLWLWWLWW

Team FOG Naestved

WWWWWWWWWW

League position

+12.8

Net rating

+25.3

97.8

Offensive rating

100.9

85.1

Defensive rating

75.6

55.7%

Effective FG%

54.8%

47.5%

Opp. effective FG%

45.8%

18.6%

Turnover %

14.3%

0.33

Free-throw rate

0.34

35.8%

3-point %

28.1%

65.2%

Assist %

57.3%

70%

Form (last 10/10)

100%

Profile

■ Randers ■ Team FOG Naestved

The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Randers wins

Team FOG Naestved wins

Date	Game	Score
02/04/26	Randers v Team FOG Naestved	122-94
16/03/26	Team FOG Naestved v Randers	105-104
08/02/26	Randers v Team FOG Naestved	98-116
09/10/25	Team FOG Naestved v Randers	101-90
27/03/25	Randers v Team FOG Naestved	96-81
10/03/25	Team FOG Naestved v Randers	101-102 OT
28/12/24	Randers v Team FOG Naestved	100-82
15/12/24	Team FOG Naestved v Randers	68-82
03/10/24	Team FOG Naestved v Randers	114-109 OT
08/04/24	Randers v Team FOG Naestved	86-101

Randerslast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
07/11/26	A	Copenhagen	96-90
30/10/26	H	Gladsaxe	110-80
23/10/26	A	Horsens	84-94
18/10/26	H	BMS Herlev	93-71
10/10/26	A	Bakken Bears	86-103
03/10/26	H	Bears Academy	117-73
27/09/26	A	Vaerlose	89-85 OT
23/09/26	H	Svendborg	83-96
17/09/26	A	Holbaek-Stenhus	100-84
20/04/26	H	Copenhagen	97-63

Team FOG Naestvedlast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
08/11/26	H	Bakken Bears	80-77
04/11/26	A	Vaerlose	95-62
28/10/26	H	Bears Academy	113-80
24/10/26	A	Gladsaxe	99-67
19/10/26	A	Vejen	107-82
15/10/26	H	Svendborg	86-83
10/10/26	A	BMS Herlev	117-55
30/09/26	H	Copenhagen	90-66
27/09/26	A	Horsens	101-73
24/09/26	H	Holbaek-Stenhus	117-56

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Randers

Basketligaen 2026-27

Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LWLWW	67%
Home	LWWW	75%
Away	WWLLW	60%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	9	4	5
Win %	67%	75%	60%
Points / game	95.3	100.8	91.0
Allowed / game	86.2	80.0	91.2
Point differential	+9.1	+20.8	-0.2
Avg total	181.6	180.8	182.2
Over 180.25	56%	50%	60%
Win by 10+	44%	75%	20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	100% (1)	-	100% (1)
Overtime %	11%	0%	20%

Team FOG Naestved

Basketligaen 2026-27

Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWWWW	100%
Home	WWWWW	100%
Away	WWWWW	100%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	10	5	5
Win %	100%	100%	100%
Points / game	100.5	97.2	103.8
Allowed / game	70.1	72.4	67.8
Point differential	+30.4	+24.8	+36.0
Avg total	170.6	169.6	171.6
Over 180.25	20%	20%	20%
Win by 10+	80%	60%	100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	100% (2)	100% (2)	-
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Team FOG Naestved	10	10	0	100%	100.5	70.1	+30.4
2	Bakken Bears	8	7	1	88%	102.0	76.6	+25.4
3	Horsens	10	8	2	80%	89.2	77.6	+11.6
4	Svendborg	9	7	2	78%	90.6	79.9	+10.7
5	Randers	9	6	3	67%	95.3	86.2	+9.1
6	Copenhagen	9	5	4	56%	84.0	81.6	+2.4
7	Holbaek-Stenhus	10	4	6	40%	77.1	87.4	-10.3
8	Vejen	9	3	6	33%	80.9	93.6	-12.7
9	Gladsaxe	10	3	7	30%	79.4	88.9	-9.5
10	Vaerlose	10	2	8	20%	78.0	91.7	-13.7
11	Bears Academy	10	1	9	10%	78.8	92.6	-13.8
12	BMS Herlev	10	1	9	10%	74.0	97.6	-23.6

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Randers	24	23	28	23	98
Team FOG Naestved	25	19	14	26	84

← all games of the day

Randers vs Team FOG Naestved Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Profile

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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