Rhode Island faces Monmouth on 7 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model clearly favouring the Providence side at 89% versus 11% for Monmouth, a result driven by Rhode Island's 1-0 record, 103.0 points per game and 59.0 allowed per game, placing them 34th in the league, while Monmouth sits 360th with 52.0 points per game and 81.5 allowed per game across two losses; Rhode Island's lone home game saw a 103-59 win over Holy Cross, and their last five games include two wins and three losses, whereas Monmouth's road record is 0-2 with recent defeats to Bradley, St. John's (N.Y.) and Hofstra; the teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available; Pythia projects a 78-64 score for Rhode Island, a total of 141.8 points, with a -6.0 line that the home side covers 78% of the time, and an over on the 146.0 total that will go 39% of the time, while the chance of overtime is 2%. The game will hinge on Rhode Island's defensive dominance and Monmouth's struggle to contain high-scoring opponents.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rhode Island winWon
89.5%fair 1.12
Best odds1.37
Implied70.7%
Edge+18.8pp
Monmouth winLost
10.5%fair 9.48
Best odds3.28
Implied29.3%
Edge-18.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Rhode Island) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 140Actual: Over 140
Over 140
54.3%
@ 1.43-10.6pp
Under 140
45.7%
@ 2.65+10.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.43
Under
Bet365
2.65
Over/Under 145 · main lineActual: Over 145
Over 145
41.8%
@ 1.89-8.7pp
Under 145
58.2%
@ 1.95+8.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Be
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Be
1.86
Over/Under 150Push
Over 150
30.1%
@ 2.50-7.4pp
Under 150
69.9%
@ 1.50+7.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Rhode Island total 71.5Actual: Rhode Island over 71.5
Over 71.5
no forecast
@ 1.39
Under 71.5
no forecast
@ 2.60
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Under
Betano
2.60
Rhode Island total 76 · main lineActual: Rhode Island over 76
Over 76
58.8%
@ 1.88+8.8pp
Under 76
41.2%
@ 1.86-8.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Under
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Rhode Island total 80Actual: Rhode Island over 80
Over 80
42.1%
Under 80
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monmouth total 66Push
Over 66
40.3%
Under 66
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monmouth total 70 · main lineActual: Monmouth under 70
Over 70
25.7%
@ 1.87-23.8pp
Under 70
74.3%
@ 1.83+23.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Under
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Monmouth total 74Actual: Monmouth under 74
Over 74
14.7%
Under 74
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Rhode Island -9.5Actual: Rhode Island -9.5
RHOD -9.5
66.8%
@ 2.50+28.8pp
MONM +9.5
33.2%
@ 1.50-28.8pp
Best 5 market prices
RHOD
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.40
MONM
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Spread Rhode Island -6.5 · main lineActual: Rhode Island -6.5
RHOD -6.5
76.1%
@ 1.95+26.7pp
MONM +6.5
23.9%
@ 1.90-26.7pp
Best 5 market prices
RHOD
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.95
Betano
1.93
SBO
1.92
1xBet
1.91
MONM
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.85
SBO
1.82
Marathon Be
1.80
Spread Rhode Island -3.5Actual: Rhode Island -3.5
RHOD -3.5
83.9%
@ 1.60+25.4pp
MONM +3.5
16.1%
@ 2.25-25.4pp
Best 5 market prices
RHOD
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.55
MONM
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.20
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Rhode IslandMonmouth
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Rhode IslandLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
George Washington
#160
L
18-34
18
34
-16
A11/02
NCAA
Fordham
#177
W
31-24
31
24
+7
H14/02
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#13
W
43-37
43
37
+6
H18/02
NCAA
La Salle
#346
L
25-39
25
39
-14
A21/02
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#207
L
30-39
30
39
-9
A26/02
NCAA
Saint Josephs Hawks
#75
L
27-30
27
30
-3
H28/02
NCAA
Duquesne
#166
L
19-24
19
24
-5
H05/03
NCAA
Fordham
#177
W
28-25
28
25
+3
A07/03
NCAA
Duquesne
#166
L
28-35
28
35
-7
A12/03
NCAA
Holy Cross
#407
W
58-27
58
27
+31
H04/11
NCAA
62.1Avg total
30.7Scored
31.4Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 68.5
Last 30 (30)
32.5
33.3
65.8
-0.8
33%
37%
Last 30 at home (15)
34.5
32.2
66.7
+2.3
40%
40%
Last 30 away (15)
30.6
34.4
65.0
-3.8
27%
33%
Last 10 (10)
30.7
31.4
62.1
-0.7
40%
30%
Last 5 (5)
32.0
28.2
60.2
+3.8
40%
20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)
32.3
36.9
69.1
-4.6
14%
57%
vs Similar (17)
31.1
31.6
62.7
-0.5
41%
24%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)
36.8
34.0
70.8
+2.8
33%
50%
This opponent (Monmouth) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Rhode Island) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Rhode Island win
RHOD win
no forecast
@ 1.57
MONM win
no forecast
@ 2.45
2nd half Spread Rhode Island -2.5 · main lineActual: Rhode Island -2.5
RHOD -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
MONM +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half Over/Under 76.5 · main lineActual: Over 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Rhode Island (regulation)
RHOD
no forecast
@ 1.60
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.00
MONM
no forecast
@ 2.50
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Rhode Island -8
72.3%
2.20
Pinnacle
2.25
Bet365
2.15
-
-
-
+29.7pp
Won
Rhode Island -8.5
70.0%
2.26
Pinnacle
2.35
Betano
2.22
Bet365
2.22
-
-
+29.4pp
Won
Rhode Island -7.5
73.1%
2.10
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.05
-
-
+28.7pp
Won
Rhode Island -7
75.3%
2.02
Pinnacle
2.05
SBO
2.00
Bet365
2.00
-
-
+28.6pp
Won
Rhode Island -4
83.5%
1.64
Bet365
1.64
-
-
-
-
+27.1pp
Won
Rhode Island -6.5
76.1%
1.92
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.95
Betano
1.93
SBO
1.92
1xBet
1.91
+26.7pp
Won
Rhode Island -6
78.3%
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
SBO
1.82
+26.4pp
Won
Rhode Island -3
85.5%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+25.8pp
Won
Rhode Island -3.5
83.9%
1.58
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
+25.4pp
Won
Rhode Island -5.5
78.9%
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
SBO
1.74
+25.0pp
Won
Rhode Island -5
81.0%
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.74
Bet365
1.74
1xBet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.71
-
+24.9pp
Won
Rhode Island -2
87.8%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+24.4pp
Won
Rhode Island -2.5
85.8%
1.50
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+23.9pp
Won
Monmouth under 70
74.3%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
-
-
-
+23.8pp
Won
Rhode Island -4.5
81.5%
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.68
Bet365
1.68
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
-
+23.6pp
Won
Rhode Island (regulation)
88.0%
1.39
Marathon Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Betano
1.39
-
-
+23.3pp
Won
Rhode Island -1.5
88.1%
1.42
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+23.1pp
Won
Rhode Island -1
89.3%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+23.0pp
Won
Monmouth under 70.5
75.1%
1.76
WilliamHill
1.80
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.72
-
-
+21.2pp
Won
Monmouth under 69.5
71.9%
1.86
BetVictor
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
+20.8pp
Won
Monmouth under 71.5
78.1%
1.57
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
-
+20.6pp
Won
Rhode Island +1
90.4%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+20.3pp
Won
Rhode Island +1.5
90.5%
1.31
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
+19.3pp
Won
Monmouth under 72.5
80.8%
1.47
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
-
+19.3pp
Won
Rhode Island win
89.5%
1.35
Marathon Bet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
WilliamHill
1.36
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
+18.8pp
Won
Monmouth under 75.5
87.6%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Won
Monmouth under 73.5
83.3%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Won
Rhode Island +2.5
92.0%
1.24
Betano
1.24
-
-
-
-
+17.7pp
Won
Monmouth under 74.5
85.6%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+17.4pp
Won
Under 154
78.0%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Overtime: no
97.7%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+7.2pp
-
Under 152
74.1%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Under 151
72.0%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Under 150.5
70.6%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Under 153.5
76.5%
1.33
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Under 154.5
78.4%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Under 151.5
72.6%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Under 152.5
74.6%
1.36
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Under 153
76.1%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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