PythiaBasketballBETA
Serie A2Round 10· Palasport Flaminio
Rimini will host Cividale on 15 November 2026 in Serie A2, with the Pythia model favouring the home side at 76% versus 24% for the visitors, a reflection of Rimini's 6-3 record, 80.4 points per game and 71.8 allowed per game, placing them fifth, compared with Cividale's 5-4 record, 71.8 points per game and 74.1 allowed per game, twelfth. Rimini's home form is strong, 3-1 with 83.8 points per game and 72.5 allowed, and they have won four of their last five, though they recently fell 70-81 to Forli away, then edged Vigevano 76-68 at home and defeated Urania Milano 85-71 away. Cividale has also won four of their last five, with recent victories over Mestre 81-79 away, Sassari 70-67 at home and Cento 74-64 away, and their road record is 3-2 with 73.6 points per game and 75.6 allowed. The teams have split ten meetings, the last ending 87-76 for Rimini on 28 May 2026. Pythia projects a 80-72 score for the game, 152.2 total points, a home line of -9.0 with a 47% chance of covering, a total line of 151.5 with a 51% over probability, and a 4% chance of overtime. Rimini's recent win over Vigevano suggests they will maintain their offensive edge.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (9) | 80.4 | 71.8 | 152.2 | +8.7 | 67% |
| Season at home (4) | 83.8 | 72.5 | 156.2 | +11.2 | 75% |
| Season away (5) | 77.8 | 71.2 | 149.0 | +6.6 | 60% |
| Last 10 (10) | 79.9 | 72.9 | 152.8 | +7.0 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 82.2 | 72.0 | 154.2 | +10.2 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger | no games | ||||
| vs Similar (20) | 80.8 | 81.3 | 162.1 | -0.5 | 40% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 87.6 | 74.6 | 162.2 | +13.0 | 90% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (9) | 71.8 | 74.1 | 145.9 | -2.3 | 56% |
| Season at home (4) | 69.5 | 72.2 | 141.8 | -2.8 | 50% |
| Season away (5) | 73.6 | 75.6 | 149.2 | -2.0 | 60% |
| Last 10 (10) | 72.2 | 75.4 | 147.6 | -3.2 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 74.2 | 69.2 | 143.4 | +5.0 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (2) | 65.0 | 81.0 | 146.0 | -16.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (18) | 75.9 | 76.4 | 152.3 | -0.5 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (10) | 81.8 | 67.7 | 149.5 | +14.1 | 80% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 75.75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 43.7 | 41.4 | 85.1 | +2.3 | 50% | 90% |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 45.1 | 42.3 | 87.4 | +2.9 | 47% | 100% |
| Last 30 away (15) | 42.3 | 40.5 | 82.8 | +1.7 | 53% | 80% |
| Last 10 (10) | 44.5 | 37.1 | 81.6 | +7.4 | 70% | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 48.2 | 36.2 | 84.4 | +12.0 | 80% | 100% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger | no games | |||||
| vs Similar (20) | 42.6 | 41.8 | 84.4 | +0.9 | 45% | 90% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 45.8 | 40.7 | 86.5 | +5.1 | 60% | 90% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 75.75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.3 | 38.6 | 76.9 | -0.3 | 47% | 60% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 36.9 | 36.1 | 73.0 | +0.8 | 56% | 44% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 39.9 | 41.5 | 81.4 | -1.6 | 36% | 79% |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.4 | 41.0 | 77.4 | -4.6 | 30% | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.6 | 37.2 | 74.8 | +0.4 | 40% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (2) | 26.0 | 49.5 | 75.5 | -23.5 | 0% | 50% |
| vs Similar (18) | 38.5 | 39.9 | 78.4 | -1.4 | 39% | 72% |
| vs Weaker (10) | 40.4 | 34.2 | 74.6 | +6.2 | 70% | 40% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cividale +16.5 | 77.3% | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | +5.1pp |
| Cividale +14.5 | 71.7% | 1.37 | 1.37 | - | - | - | - | +4.8pp |
| Cividale +15.5 | 74.6% | 1.32 | 1.32 | - | - | - | - | +4.8pp |
| Rimini (regulation) | 73.8% | 1.23 | 1.24 | 1.23 | 1.23 | - | - | +1.5pp |
| Rimini win | 76.2% | 1.21 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.20 | -1.2pp |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 36.1 | 18.1 | 51.2% | 36.2 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 23.8 | 8.8 | 34.5% | 26.4 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 17.3 | 12.5 | 71.0% | 12.5 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 27.3 | 14.3 | 51.2% | 28.6 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 21.8 | 6.1 | 34.5% | 18.3 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 15.1 | 11.0 | 71.0% | 11.0 |
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 28/05/26 | Rimini v Cividale | 87-76 |
| 26/05/26 | Rimini v Cividale | 83-66 |
| 23/05/26 | Cividale v Rimini | 85-69 |
| 21/05/26 | Cividale v Rimini | 69-84 |
| 17/04/26 | Cividale v Rimini | 89-76 |
| 17/12/25 | Rimini v Cividale | 74-67 |
| 15/02/25 | Cividale v Rimini | 73-80 |
| 20/10/24 | Rimini v Cividale | 89-90 |
| 13/01/24 | Rimini v Cividale | 67-69 |
| 04/11/23 | Cividale v Rimini | 82-77 OT |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | A | Forli | 70-81 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Vigevano | 76-68 |
| 30/10/26 | A | Urania Milano | 85-71 |
| 25/10/26 | H | Sebastiani Rieti | 96-73 |
| 21/10/26 | A | Sassari | 84-67 |
| 18/10/26 | H | Mestre | 91-76 |
| 11/10/26 | A | Fortitudo Bologna | 66-78 |
| 04/10/26 | H | Avellino Basket | 72-73 |
| 27/09/26 | A | Montecatini | 84-59 |
| 14/06/26 | H | Verona | 75-83 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | A | Mestre | 81-79 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Sassari | 70-67 |
| 30/10/26 | A | Cento | 74-64 |
| 24/10/26 | H | Urania Milano | 78-60 |
| 21/10/26 | A | Pesaro | 68-76 |
| 17/10/26 | H | Avellino Basket | 62-77 |
| 11/10/26 | A | Basket Torino | 59-76 |
| 04/10/26 | A | Ruvo Di Puglia | 86-83 |
| 26/09/26 | H | Forli | 68-85 |
| 28/05/26 | A | Rimini | 76-87 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWWL | 67% |
| Home | LWWW | 75% |
| Away | WLWWL | 60% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 4 | 5 |
| Win % | 67% | 75% | 60% |
| Points / game | 80.4 | 83.8 | 77.8 |
| Allowed / game | 71.8 | 72.5 | 71.2 |
| Point differential | +8.7 | +11.2 | +6.6 |
| Avg total | 152.2 | 156.2 | 149.0 |
| Over 151.5 | 33% | 50% | 20% |
| Win by 10+ | 56% | 50% | 60% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | 0% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWWWW | 56% |
| Home | LLWW | 50% |
| Away | WLLWW | 60% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 4 | 5 |
| Win % | 56% | 50% | 60% |
| Points / game | 71.8 | 69.5 | 73.6 |
| Allowed / game | 74.1 | 72.2 | 75.6 |
| Point differential | -2.3 | -2.8 | -2.0 |
| Avg total | 145.9 | 141.8 | 149.2 |
| Over 151.5 | 33% | 25% | 40% |
| Win by 10+ | 22% | 25% | 20% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (3) | 100% (1) | 100% (2) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertas Livorno | 9 | 8 | 1 | 89% | 81.2 | 69.7 | +11.6 |
| 2 | Avellino Basket | 9 | 8 | 1 | 89% | 82.2 | 74.7 | +7.6 |
| 3 |  Fortitudo Bologna | 9 | 7 | 2 | 78% | 79.4 | 74.3 | +5.1 |
| 4 | Sebastiani Rieti | 9 | 7 | 2 | 78% | 74.8 | 72.1 | +2.7 |
| 5 | Rimini | 9 | 6 | 3 | 67% | 80.4 | 71.8 | +8.7 |
| 6 |  Brindisi | 9 | 6 | 3 | 67% | 77.4 | 73.9 | +3.6 |
| 7 |  Basket Torino | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 72.8 | 72.2 | +0.5 |
| 8 |  Pistoia | 10 | 6 | 4 | 60% | 77.6 | 69.1 | +8.5 |
| 9 |  Forli | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56% | 82.3 | 77.6 | +4.8 |
| 10 |  Pesaro | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56% | 81.0 | 79.9 | +1.1 |
| 11 |  Sassari | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56% | 77.2 | 76.4 | +0.8 |
| 12 | Cividale | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56% | 71.8 | 74.1 | -2.3 |
| 13 |  Mestre | 9 | 4 | 5 | 44% | 75.0 | 76.4 | -1.4 |
| 14 | Vigevano | 9 | 3 | 6 | 33% | 76.3 | 81.8 | -5.4 |
| 15 |  Caserta | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25% | 78.1 | 82.6 | -4.5 |
| 16 | JuVi Cremona | 9 | 2 | 7 | 22% | 75.3 | 77.9 | -2.6 |
| 17 | Ruvo Di Puglia | 9 | 2 | 7 | 22% | 74.4 | 81.7 | -7.2 |
| 18 | Cento | 9 | 2 | 7 | 22% | 72.8 | 82.2 | -9.4 |
| 19 | Montecatini | 9 | 1 | 8 | 11% | 68.1 | 82.3 | -14.2 |
| 20 |  Urania Milano | 10 | 1 | 9 | 10% | 74.6 | 82.7 | -8.1 |
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