Sam Houston St. will host Pepperdine in an NCAA contest on 11 November 2026, with the model ranking Sam Houston St. as the clear favourite at 95% to win, a probability that reflects their 1-1 record, 88.0 points per game and 77.5 allowed per game, and a home-only 1-0 record with 102.0 points scored and 59.0 allowed. Pepperdine, 2-1 overall with 102.3 points per game and 65.0 allowed, has a 0-1 road record and 85.0 points scored and 86.0 allowed in that lone away game. Sam Houston St. has won two of its last five games, while Pepperdine has won three of five, and the last meeting was a 102-59 victory for Sam Houston St. over Howard Payne at home. The model projects a 89-69 score and a total of 157.8 points, with a 1.5-point home line that the home side covers 96% of the time, and an over-159.0 line with a 47% chance of exceeding it; overtime is unlikely at 1%. The next game will see Sam Houston St. attempt to extend its early season momentum against a Pepperdine squad that has shown strong offensive output.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sam Houston St. winWon
95.1%fair 1.05
Best odds2.34
Implied41.6%
Edge+53.5pp
Pepperdine winLost
4.9%fair 20.26
Best odds1.65
Implied58.4%
Edge-53.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Sam Houston St.) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 155Actual: Over 155
Over 155
56.8%
@ 1.44-7.7pp
Under 155
43.2%
@ 2.62+7.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Under
Bet365
2.62
Over/Under 160 · main lineActual: Over 160
Over 160
44.2%
@ 1.91-5.6pp
Under 160
55.8%
@ 1.96+5.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.96
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Over/Under 165Actual: Under 165
Over 165
32.1%
@ 2.40-6.6pp
Under 165
67.9%
@ 1.52+6.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.40
Under
Bet365
1.52
📊 3. Team Totals
Sam Houston St. total 75Actual: Sam Houston St. over 75
Over 75
92.1%
Under 75
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sam Houston St. total 79 · main lineActual: Sam Houston St. over 79
Over 79
84.2%
@ 1.85+34.2pp
Under 79
15.8%
@ 1.85-34.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Sam Houston St. total 83Actual: Sam Houston St. over 83
Over 83
72.2%
Under 83
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pepperdine total 75Actual: Pepperdine over 75
Over 75
27.1%
Under 75
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pepperdine total 79 · main lineActual: Pepperdine under 79
Over 79
15.5%
@ 1.85-34.5pp
Under 79
84.5%
@ 1.85+34.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Pepperdine total 82.5Actual: Pepperdine under 82.5
Over 82.5
no forecast
@ 2.07
Under 82.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.07
Bet365
1.86
Under
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.73
Betano
1.67
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Sam Houston St. 0Actual: Sam Houston St. 0
SAM 0
95.1%
@ 1.83+44.1pp
PEPP 0
4.9%
@ 1.90-44.1pp
Best 5 market prices
SAM
Marathon Be
1.83
PEPP
Marathon Be
1.90
Spread Sam Houston St. +3 · main lineActual: Sam Houston St. +3
SAM +3
96.8%
@ 1.94+47.4pp
PEPP -3
3.2%
@ 2.00-47.4pp
Best 5 market prices
SAM
Pinnacle
1.94
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.74
PEPP
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.84
SBO
1.81
Spread Sam Houston St. +6Actual: Sam Houston St. +6
SAM +6
98.1%
@ 1.50+35.6pp
PEPP -6
1.9%
@ 2.50-35.6pp
Best 5 market prices
SAM
Bet365
1.50
PEPP
Bet365
2.50
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Sam Houston St.Pepperdine
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Sam Houston St.) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Sam Houston St. win
SAM win
no forecast
@ 2.12
PEPP win
no forecast
@ 1.72
2nd half Spread Sam Houston St. +1.5 · main lineActual: Sam Houston St. +1.5
SAM +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
PEPP -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Over/Under 82.5 · main lineActual: Over 82.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Sam Houston St. (regulation)
SAM
no forecast
@ 2.18
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.50
PEPP
no forecast
@ 1.78
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Sam Houston St. -5.5
88.9%
3.17
Betano
3.35
Bet365
3.00
-
-
-
+59.7pp
Won
Sam Houston St. -4.5
90.5%
2.88
Betano
3.05
Bet365
2.70
-
-
-
+58.3pp
Won
Sam Houston St. -6.5
87.2%
3.20
Betano
3.35
Bet365
3.05
-
-
-
+58.3pp
Won
Sam Houston St. -8.5
83.1%
3.67
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.60
-
-
-
+58.0pp
Lost
Sam Houston St. -5
90.4%
2.85
Bet365
2.85
-
-
-
-
+57.9pp
Won
Sam Houston St. -6
88.8%
3.00
Bet365
3.00
-
-
-
-
+57.9pp
Won
Sam Houston St. -7.5
85.2%
3.27
Betano
3.50
Bet365
3.05
-
-
-
+56.8pp
Won
Sam Houston St. -4
91.9%
2.62
Bet365
2.62
-
-
-
-
+56.4pp
Won
Sam Houston St. (regulation)
94.2%
2.27
Marathon Bet
2.38
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.09
-
-
+56.2pp
Won
Sam Houston St. -9
82.7%
3.50
Bet365
3.50
-
-
-
-
+56.1pp
Lost
Sam Houston St. -8
84.9%
3.20
Bet365
3.20
-
-
-
-
+55.9pp
Push
Sam Houston St. -7
86.9%
2.90
Bet365
2.90
-
-
-
-
+55.0pp
Won
Sam Houston St. -9.5
80.8%
3.60
Bet365
3.60
-
-
-
-
+54.9pp
Lost
Sam Houston St. -3.5
92.0%
2.46
Betano
2.82
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.07
-
-
+54.5pp
Won
Sam Houston St. -3
93.0%
2.40
Bet365
2.40
-
-
-
-
+54.2pp
Won
Sam Houston St. -2.5
93.1%
2.41
Betano
2.57
1xBet
2.37
Bet365
2.30
-
-
+54.1pp
Won
Sam Houston St. +1
95.6%
2.04
Pinnacle
2.31
Marathon Bet
2.01
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.85
-
+54.1pp
Won
Sam Houston St. win
95.1%
2.25
Bet365
2.34
Pinnacle
2.32
Betano
2.30
Marathon Bet
2.25
WilliamHill
2.25
+53.5pp
Won
Sam Houston St. -2
94.3%
2.25
Pinnacle
2.31
Bet365
2.20
-
-
-
+53.0pp
Won
Sam Houston St. +1.5
95.6%
1.97
Pinnacle
2.24
Betano
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.93
+52.9pp
Won
Sam Houston St. +2
96.3%
1.95
Pinnacle
2.14
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
+51.5pp
Won
Sam Houston St. -1.5
94.3%
2.17
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.21
Bet365
2.12
BetVictor
1.91
+51.2pp
Won
Sam Houston St. -1
95.0%
2.00
Pinnacle
2.14
Bet365
2.05
SBO
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.88
-
+50.5pp
Won
Sam Houston St. +2.5
96.4%
1.89
Pinnacle
2.04
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.91
BetVictor
1.88
Bet365
1.86
+49.4pp
Won
Sam Houston St. +3
96.8%
1.86
Pinnacle
1.94
SBO
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.87
Bet365
1.74
-
+47.4pp
Won
Sam Houston St. +3.5
96.9%
1.80
Pinnacle
1.85
SBO
1.85
Betano
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.82
1xBet
1.80
+45.0pp
Won
Sam Houston St. 0
95.1%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
-
+44.1pp
Won
Pepperdine under 75.5
73.8%
3.03
Bet365
3.10
Betano
2.95
-
-
-
+43.5pp
Lost
Pepperdine under 77.5
79.8%
2.51
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.47
-
-
-
+43.3pp
Won
Sam Houston St. +4
97.3%
1.73
Pinnacle
1.77
Marathon Bet
1.75
SBO
1.75
Bet365
1.66
-
+43.2pp
Won
Pepperdine under 76.5
77.0%
2.58
Betano
2.75
Bet365
2.40
-
-
-
+41.1pp
Lost
Sam Houston St. +4.5
97.4%
1.67
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathon Bet
1.69
1xBet
1.64
Bet365
1.62
+41.1pp
Won
Pepperdine under 79.5
84.9%
1.94
Pinnacle
2.12
Betano
2.07
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87
1xBet
1.85
+40.5pp
Won
Sam Houston St. +5
97.8%
1.61
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
+39.7pp
Won
Pepperdine under 74.5
70.5%
2.95
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.90
-
-
-
+39.4pp
Lost
Pepperdine under 81
88.7%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+38.7pp
Won
Pepperdine under 80.5
87.0%
1.89
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.88
Bet365
1.86
+38.2pp
Won
Sam Houston St. +5.5
97.8%
1.57
Pinnacle
1.60
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.54
-
-
+38.2pp
Won
Pepperdine under 78.5
82.5%
2.06
Betano
2.27
1xBet
1.85
-
-
-
+37.6pp
Won
Pepperdine under 80
86.7%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.86
-
-
-
-
+37.0pp
Won
Sam Houston St. over 81.5
76.3%
2.30
Betano
2.30
-
-
-
-
+36.9pp
Won
Sam Houston St. +6.5
98.1%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+35.6pp
Won
Sam Houston St. +6
98.1%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+35.6pp
Won
Sam Houston St. over 82.5
73.1%
2.45
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.40
-
-
-
+35.6pp
Won
Sam Houston St. over 80.5
79.4%
1.96
Pinnacle
2.14
Betano
2.10
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Bet365
1.86
+35.4pp
Won
Sam Houston St. over 79.5
82.1%
1.89
Pinnacle
2.02
Betano
1.98
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
+35.3pp
Won
Sam Houston St. over 78.5
84.6%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.89
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
Betano
1.83
+34.8pp
Won
Pepperdine under 79
84.5%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+34.5pp
Won
Sam Houston St. over 79
84.2%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
+34.2pp
Won
Sam Houston St. +7
98.4%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+33.5pp
Won
Sam Houston St. +7.5
98.4%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+33.0pp
Won
Sam Houston St. over 80
81.6%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+31.6pp
Won
Sam Houston St. +8
98.7%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+31.1pp
Won
Sam Houston St. +8.5
98.7%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+30.3pp
Won
Sam Houston St. over 77.5
86.9%
1.62
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
+29.5pp
Won
Sam Houston St. over 76.5
88.9%
1.54
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+28.7pp
Won
Sam Houston St. +9
98.9%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+28.4pp
Won
Sam Houston St. +9.5
98.9%
1.31
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+27.9pp
Won
Sam Houston St. over 75.5
90.7%
1.42
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+26.1pp
Won
Sam Houston St. +10
99.1%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+26.0pp
Won
Sam Houston St. +10.5
99.1%
1.26
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
+25.5pp
Won
Sam Houston St. over 74.5
92.2%
1.36
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+24.9pp
Won
Sam Houston St. over 73.5
93.6%
1.29
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+22.4pp
Won
Sam Houston St. +11.5
99.2%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+21.4pp
Won
Sam Houston St. over 71.5
95.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+19.5pp
Won
Sam Houston St. over 72.5
94.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Won
Sam Houston St. over 70.5
96.5%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+16.0pp
Won
Sam Houston St. +16.5
99.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+13.6pp
Won
Sam Houston St. +21.5
99.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
Overtime: no
98.8%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Won
Under 168.5
74.8%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Under 167
72.2%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Under 167.5
72.8%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Under 166
70.1%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Under 168
74.3%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Under 166.5
70.7%
1.40
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Under 179.5
91.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Under 169.5
76.7%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Under 174.5
85.0%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Over 134.5
92.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Over 139.5
87.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Over 144.5
79.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Sam Houston St. under 99.5
86.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Won
Sam Houston St. under 98.5
84.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.5pp
Won
Sam Houston St. under 97.5
81.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-9.8pp
Won
Sam Houston St. under 96.5
78.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-12.2pp
Won
Pepperdine over 60.5
80.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-13.0pp
Won
Sam Houston St. under 95.5
75.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-13.8pp
Won
Pepperdine over 61.5
77.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-15.9pp
Won
Sam Houston St. under 94.5
72.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-16.8pp
Won
Pepperdine over 62.5
74.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-19.0pp
Won
Pepperdine over 63.5
71.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-20.2pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.