PythiaBasketballBETA
Premier League W· MTL Arena
The Premier League W clash on 16 November 2026 pits Novosibirsk W, the model favourite, against Samara W, who has struggled all season with a 0-6 record and 55.8 points per game while conceding 78.3. Novosibirsk W, 2-4 overall, averages 63.3 points and allows 70.8, and has won two of its last five games, including a 78-55 home victory over Vladimir W. Samara W's lone home outing ended 56-77 against Spartak Moscow W, and their last three outings were losses to Nadezhda W, Spartak Moscow W, and Enisey Krasnoyarsk W. In the ten meetings between the sides, Samara W leads 6-4, with the most recent encounter on 7 April 2026 ending 65-62 in Samara's favour. Pythia projects a 40% chance for Samara and 60% for Novosibirsk, with a 69-72 scoreline and 141.4 total points; the 5-point line favors Samara, and the model sees a 5% chance of overtime. The game will test Novosibirsk's ability to overcome Samara's defensive resilience, as the projected margin of three points suggests a tightly contested finish.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (6) | 55.8 | 78.3 | 134.2 | -22.5 | 0% |
| Season at home (1) | 56.0 | 77.0 | 133.0 | -21.0 | 0% |
| Season away (5) | 55.8 | 78.6 | 134.4 | -22.8 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 61.4 | 75.3 | 136.7 | -13.9 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 52.4 | 76.4 | 128.8 | -24.0 | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (15) | 60.8 | 86.1 | 146.9 | -25.3 | 13% |
| vs Similar (15) | 71.5 | 69.6 | 141.1 | +1.9 | 60% |
| vs Weaker | no games | ||||
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (6) | 63.3 | 70.8 | 134.2 | -7.5 | 33% |
| Season at home (3) | 62.7 | 63.7 | 126.3 | -1.0 | 33% |
| Season away (3) | 64.0 | 78.0 | 142.0 | -14.0 | 33% |
| Last 10 (10) | 63.6 | 68.8 | 132.4 | -5.2 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 64.6 | 70.0 | 134.6 | -5.4 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (18) | 66.4 | 78.2 | 144.6 | -11.8 | 28% |
| vs Similar (11) | 65.5 | 76.3 | 141.8 | -10.7 | 9% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (1) | 78.0 | 55.0 | 133.0 | +23.0 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.5 | 40.4 | 75.0 | -5.9 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 35.9 | 42.4 | 78.3 | -6.4 | 47% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 32.7 | 37.9 | 70.6 | -5.2 | 38% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 33.7 | 38.2 | 71.9 | -4.5 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 30.2 | 40.8 | 71.0 | -10.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (15) | 32.5 | 46.9 | 79.4 | -14.3 | 20% | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 36.5 | 34.0 | 70.5 | +2.5 | 67% | - |
| vs Weaker | no games | |||||
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 33.3 | 39.0 | 72.3 | -5.7 | 33% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 32.1 | 34.7 | 66.9 | -2.6 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 34.3 | 42.8 | 77.1 | -8.4 | 19% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 31.3 | 36.3 | 67.6 | -5.0 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 30.6 | 40.0 | 70.6 | -9.4 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (18) | 32.1 | 41.7 | 73.8 | -9.6 | 22% | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 34.6 | 35.4 | 70.0 | -0.7 | 45% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (1) | 40.0 | 30.0 | 70.0 | +10.0 | 100% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 07/04/26 | Samara W v Novosibirsk W | 65-62 |
| 02/04/26 | Novosibirsk W v Samara W | 66-71 |
| 15/02/26 | Samara W v Novosibirsk W | 77-64 |
| 04/02/26 | Samara W v Novosibirsk W | 90-79 |
| 26/11/25 | Novosibirsk W v Samara W | 51-69 |
| 18/03/25 | Samara W v Novosibirsk W | 68-69 |
| 25/02/25 | Novosibirsk W v Samara W | 72-67 |
| 31/01/25 | Samara W v Novosibirsk W | 55-63 |
| 30/11/24 | Novosibirsk W v Samara W | 73-65 |
| 21/11/24 | Samara W v Novosibirsk W | 74-57 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/26 | A | Nadezhda W | 54-56 |
| 01/11/26 | H | Spartak Moscow W | 56-77 |
| 24/10/26 | A | Enisey Krasnoyarsk W | 64-72 |
| 20/10/26 | A | UMMC Ekaterinburg W | 41-87 |
| 12/10/26 | A | Dynamo Kursk W | 47-90 |
| 04/10/26 | A | Dynamo Moscow W | 73-88 |
| 08/04/26 | A | Ivanovo W | 79-72 |
| 07/04/26 | H | Novosibirsk W | 65-62 |
| 06/04/26 | A | Neftyanik Omsk W | 53-71 |
| 03/04/26 | H | Ivanovo W | 82-78 OT |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/26 | H | Vladimir W | 78-55 |
| 01/11/26 | A | Nadezhda W | 66-60 |
| 24/10/26 | A | Spartak Moscow W | 72-77 |
| 20/10/26 | H | Enisey Krasnoyarsk W | 53-61 |
| 12/10/26 | A | UMMC Ekaterinburg W | 54-97 |
| 04/10/26 | H | Dynamo Kursk W | 57-75 |
| 08/04/26 | A | Neftyanik Omsk W | 59-70 |
| 07/04/26 | A | Samara W | 62-65 |
| 06/04/26 | H | Ivanovo W | 68-69 |
| 03/04/26 | H | Neftyanik Omsk W | 67-59 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLLL | 0% |
| Home | L | 0% |
| Away | LLLLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 1 | 5 |
| Win % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Points / game | 55.8 | 56.0 | 55.8 |
| Allowed / game | 78.3 | 77.0 | 78.6 |
| Point differential | -22.5 | -21.0 | -22.8 |
| Avg total | 134.2 | 133.0 | 134.4 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLWW | 33% |
| Home | LLW | 33% |
| Away | LLW | 33% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Win % | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| Points / game | 63.3 | 62.7 | 64.0 |
| Allowed / game | 70.8 | 63.7 | 78.0 |
| Point differential | -7.5 | -1.0 | -14.0 |
| Avg total | 134.2 | 126.3 | 142.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 17% | 33% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UMMC Ekaterinburg W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 82.2 | 54.5 | +27.7 |
| 2 |  Dynamo Kursk W | 7 | 6 | 1 | 86% | 82.3 | 62.9 | +19.4 |
| 3 |  Dynamo Moscow W | 7 | 6 | 1 | 86% | 77.4 | 68.3 | +9.1 |
| 4 |  MBA Moscow W | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 73.2 | 59.4 | +13.8 |
| 5 |  Spartak Moscow W | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 71.9 | 67.3 | +4.6 |
| 6 |  Nadezhda W | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 61.5 | 64.8 | -3.3 |
| 7 |  Neftyanik Omsk W | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 63.0 | 66.5 | -3.5 |
| 8 | Novosibirsk W | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 63.3 | 70.8 | -7.5 |
| 9 |  Enisey Krasnoyarsk W | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 62.7 | 70.7 | -8.0 |
| 10 |  Ivanovo W | 7 | 1 | 6 | 14% | 67.7 | 78.9 | -11.1 |
| 11 |  Vladimir W | 7 | 1 | 6 | 14% | 62.4 | 79.6 | -17.1 |
| 12 | Samara W | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 55.8 | 78.3 | -22.5 |
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