PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Slovakia W vs Serbia W Prediction & Stats

Date: Tue 17 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Projected 66-75
Projected total 141.2
Scheduled
Position#22
Record4-4
FormLWWLL
Points / game70.1
Allowed / game64.6
Slovakia W
Vs
21%
79%
■ SLOV 21%■ SERB 79%
Pythia win probability
Serbia W
Position#2
Record6-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game82.8
Allowed / game65.0
EuropeEuropean Championship WomenRound 3· GoPass Arena
Women2025
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Slovakia W will host Serbia W on 17 November 2026 in the European Championship Women, and the Pythia model names Serbia W the clear favourite, rating them 79% to win against Slovakia W's 21% chance. Slovakia W has gone 4-4 this season, scoring 70.1 points per game and allowing 64.6, while Serbia W is undefeated 6-0, averaging 82.8 points and conceding 65.0, the best record in the competition. At home Slovakia has 2-1, 69.7 points for and 53.7 against, whereas Serbia has 3-0 on the road, 81.3 points for and 66.3 against. Slovakia's last five games were 2-3, including a 70-98 loss to Greece W away, a 69-80 loss to Netherlands W away and a 79-55 win over Romania W at home; Serbia's last five were 5-0, with wins over Netherlands W 89-82 away, Greece W 84-74 at home and Portugal W 71-58 away. The only prior meeting was a 90-52 win for Serbia W on 16 June 2023. Pythia projects a 66-75 score, 141.2 total points, and a 4% chance of overtime, with Serbia W covering the spread. The game ends with Serbia W's 75 points.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Slovakia W win
20.7%fair 4.83
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Serbia W win
79.3%fair 1.26
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 15 Nov 07:37 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Slovakia WLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Romania W
#30
W
90-52
90
52
+38
H06/02
European Championship Women
Iceland W
#29
W
78-55
78
55
+23
H09/02
European Championship Women
Poland W
#7
L
55-62
55
62
-7
H12/11
European Championship Women
Cyprus W
#37
W
70-59
70
59
+11
A15/11
European Championship Women
Romania W
#29
W
88-56
88
56
+32
A18/11
European Championship Women
Poland W
#7
L
55-63
55
63
-8
A11/03
European Championship Women
Cyprus W
#37
W
75-44
75
44
+31
H14/03
European Championship Women
Romania W
#29
W
79-55
79
55
+24
H17/03
European Championship Women
Netherlands W
#23
L
69-80
69
80
-11
A11/11
European Championship Women
Greece W
#16
L
70-98
70
98
-28
A14/11
European Championship Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-4
16-21
30-7
20-20
10-23
25-9
17-8
26-15
13-18
7-17
11-12
24-15
12-19
27-13
11-17
20-10
17-19
21-10
18-10
32-17
17-21
9-11
14-15
15-16
24-13
19-13
19-12
13-6
23-12
15-14
18-18
23-11
12-25
21-21
20-22
16-12
15-20
18-26
22-27
15-25
135.3Avg total
72.9Scored
62.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)70.164.6134.8+5.550%
Season at home (3)69.753.7123.3+16.067%
Season away (5)70.471.2141.6-0.840%
Last 10 (10)72.962.4135.3+10.560%
Last 5 (5)69.668.0137.6+1.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)59.174.6133.7-15.414%
vs Similar (3)71.364.3135.7+7.067%
vs Weaker (13)81.158.8139.8+22.392%
This opponent (Serbia W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Serbia WLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Portugal W
#12
L
40-57
40
57
-17
A09/02
European Championship Women
Italy W
#6
L
61-70
61
70
-9
H18/06
European Championship Women
Lithuania W
#17
L
63-74
63
74
-11
A19/06
European Championship Women
Slovenia W
#7
L
69-84
69
84
-15
A21/06
European Championship Women
Iceland W
#30
W
84-59
84
59
+25
A12/11
European Championship Women
Portugal W
#26
W
77-51
77
51
+26
H15/11
European Championship Women
Iceland W
#30
W
92-66
92
66
+26
H11/03
European Championship Women
Portugal W
#26
W
71-58
71
58
+13
A14/03
European Championship Women
Greece W
#16
W
84-74
84
74
+10
H11/11
European Championship Women
Netherlands W
#23
W
89-82
89
82
+7
A14/11
European Championship Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-12
13-16
11-14
2-15
18-19
12-20
13-17
18-14
14-16
16-14
19-24
14-20
23-30
10-19
18-20
18-15
26-14
21-15
25-9
12-21
23-12
13-19
16-12
25-8
20-26
20-14
26-9
26-17
22-12
17-21
18-11
14-14
23-14
17-17
19-20
25-23
25-26
26-22
18-20
20-14
140.5Avg total
73.0Scored
67.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)82.865.0147.8+17.8100%
Season at home (3)84.363.7148.0+20.7100%
Season away (3)81.366.3147.7+15.0100%
Last 10 (10)73.067.5140.5+5.560%
Last 5 (5)82.666.2148.8+16.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)69.075.0144.0-6.040%
vs Similar (3)67.774.7142.3-7.00%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)77.261.5138.7+15.782%
This opponent (Slovakia W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 139.5
Over 139.5
53.7%
Under 139.5
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 144.5
Over 144.5
41.5%
Under 144.5
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 149.5
Over 149.5
30.2%
Under 149.5
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Slovakia W total 70
Over 70
33.7%
Under 70
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovakia W total 74
Over 74
20.7%
Under 74
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovakia W total 78
Over 78
11.6%
Under 78
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Serbia W total 67
Over 67
80.3%
Under 67
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Serbia W total 71
Over 71
67.1%
Under 71
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Serbia W total 75
Over 75
51.0%
Under 75
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Slovakia W -3
SLOV -3
14.7%
SERB +3
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
SLOV
No market prices yet.
SERB
No market prices yet.
Spread Slovakia W 0
SLOV 0
20.7%
SERB 0
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
SLOV
No market prices yet.
SERB
No market prices yet.
Spread Slovakia W +3
SLOV +3
27.1%
SERB -3
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
SLOV
No market prices yet.
SERB
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -0.7-0.7Q1: +2.7+2.7Q2Q2: +2.3+2.3Q2: -1.2-1.2Q3Q3: +3.2+3.2Q3: +2.7+2.7Q4Q4: +5.7+5.7Q4: +1.3+1.3
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -0.7-0.7Q1: +2.7+2.7Q2Q2: +2.3+2.3Q2: -1.2-1.2Q3Q3: +3.2+3.2Q3: +2.7+2.7Q4Q4: +5.7+5.7Q4: +1.3+1.3
Slovakia WSerbia W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Slovakia WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Romania W
#30
W
40-25
40
25
+15
H06/02
European Championship Women
Iceland W
#29
W
35-32
35
32
+3
H09/02
European Championship Women
Poland W
#7
L
20-35
20
35
-15
H12/11
European Championship Women
Cyprus W
#37
W
39-32
39
32
+7
A15/11
European Championship Women
Romania W
#29
W
38-29
38
29
+9
A18/11
European Championship Women
Poland W
#7
L
26-32
26
32
-6
A11/03
European Championship Women
Cyprus W
#37
W
43-26
43
26
+17
H14/03
European Championship Women
Romania W
#29
W
38-26
38
26
+12
H17/03
European Championship Women
Netherlands W
#23
L
33-46
33
46
-13
A11/11
European Championship Women
Greece W
#16
L
33-46
33
46
-13
A14/11
European Championship Women
67.4Avg total
34.5Scored
32.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.634.768.3-1.150%-
Last 30 at home (13)34.632.467.0+2.254%-
Last 30 away (17)32.836.569.3-3.647%-
Last 10 (10)34.532.967.4+1.660%-
Last 5 (5)34.635.269.8-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)28.037.265.2-9.214%-
vs Similar (3)33.736.069.7-2.333%-
vs Weaker (13)39.631.771.3+7.992%-
This opponent (Serbia W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Serbia WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Portugal W
#12
L
27-28
27
28
-1
A09/02
European Championship Women
Italy W
#6
L
30-39
30
39
-9
H18/06
European Championship Women
Lithuania W
#17
D
30-30
30
30
+0
A19/06
European Championship Women
Slovenia W
#7
L
33-49
33
49
-16
A21/06
European Championship Women
Iceland W
#30
W
47-29
47
29
+18
A12/11
European Championship Women
Portugal W
#26
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H15/11
European Championship Women
Iceland W
#30
D
40-40
40
40
+0
H11/03
European Championship Women
Portugal W
#26
W
39-33
39
33
+6
A14/03
European Championship Women
Greece W
#16
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H11/11
European Championship Women
Netherlands W
#23
W
51-48
51
48
+3
A14/11
European Championship Women
73.1Avg total
37.3Scored
35.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.934.273.1+4.767%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.932.069.9+5.967%-
Last 30 away (15)39.836.476.2+3.467%-
Last 10 (10)37.335.873.1+1.550%-
Last 5 (5)41.236.677.8+4.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)35.840.876.6-5.040%-
vs Similar (3)31.037.368.3-6.333%-
vs Weaker ◀ (22)40.632.372.9+8.477%-
This opponent (Slovakia W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Slovakia Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Slovakia W: 70.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.3 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.5 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.7 pts a game · 21% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.016.7
40.7%
-33.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.07.5
32.6%
-22.5
🏀 Free throws19.814.7
73.9%
-14.7
They take 64.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Serbia Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Serbia W: 69.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀58%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.2 pts a game · 58% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.3 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.7 pts a game · 15% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.620.1
42.2%
-40.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers17.56.1
34.9%
-18.3
🏀 Free throws14.810.7
72.3%
-10.7
They take 65.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 17.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 27% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 6/10 games with a box score before 17 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Slovakia W
LLWWLWWLWW
Serbia W
WWWWWWLLLL
#22
League position
#2
+7.6
Net rating
+7.0
97.2
Offensive rating
90.9
89.6
Defensive rating
83.9
43.6%
Effective FG%
44.9%
43.8%
Opp. effective FG%
45.2%
18.9%
Turnover %
21.9%
36.2%
Off. rebound %
28.6%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.23
32.6%
3-point %
34.9%
68.3%
Assist %
68.7%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)60% · 60%
■ Slovakia W   ■ Serbia W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Slovakia W wins
1
Serbia W wins
DateGameScore
16/06/23Serbia W v Slovakia W90-52
Slovakia Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AGreece W70-98
11/11/26ANetherlands W69-80
17/03/26HRomania W79-55
14/03/26HCyprus W75-44
11/03/26APoland W55-63
18/11/25ARomania W88-56
15/11/25ACyprus W70-59
12/11/25HPoland W55-62
09/02/25HIceland W78-55
06/02/25HRomania W90-52
Serbia Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ANetherlands W89-82
11/11/26HGreece W84-74
14/03/26APortugal W71-58
11/03/26HIceland W92-66
15/11/25HPortugal W77-51
12/11/25AIceland W84-59
21/06/25ASlovenia W69-84
19/06/25ALithuania W63-74
18/06/25HItaly W61-70
09/02/25APortugal W40-57

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Slovakia W
European Championship Women 2025
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL50%
HomeLWW67%
AwayWWLLL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games835
Win %50%67%40%
Points / game70.169.770.4
Allowed / game64.653.771.2
Point differential+5.5+16.0-0.8
Avg total134.8123.3141.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%67%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Serbia W
European Championship Women 2025
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
AwayWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game82.884.381.3
Allowed / game65.063.766.3
Point differential+17.8+20.7+15.0
Avg total147.8148.0147.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+83%100%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 France W220100%102.053.0+49.0
2 Serbia W660100%82.865.0+17.8
3 Italy W220100%69.055.5+13.5
4 Turkey W220100%77.564.5+13.0
5 Spain W220100%79.067.5+11.5
6 Hungary W220100%67.560.0+7.5
7 Poland W87188%75.453.2+22.1
8 Bulgaria W86275%88.663.1+25.5
9 Latvia W86275%77.964.2+13.6
10 Israel W86275%82.471.2+11.1
11 Great Britain W86275%78.471.0+7.4
12 Belgium W32167%86.074.3+11.7
13 Lithuania W32167%78.070.0+8.0
14 Finland W32167%78.082.3-4.3
15 Montenegro W85362%74.662.0+12.6
16 Greece W85362%89.577.4+12.1
17 Croatia W85362%80.273.0+7.2
18 Slovenia W85362%75.870.1+5.6
19 Austria W85362%73.970.2+3.6
20 Ukraine W84450%72.066.4+5.6
21 Germany W21150%76.070.5+5.5
22 Slovakia W84450%70.164.6+5.5
23 Netherlands W84450%79.178.0+1.1
24 Denmark W83538%83.279.6+3.6
25 Luxembourg W83538%65.070.4-5.4
26 Portugal W62433%67.367.8-0.5
27 Switzerland W62433%69.773.2-3.5
28 Ireland W62433%73.580.3-6.8
29 Romania W62433%58.775.0-16.3
30 Iceland W41325%64.284.0-19.8
31 Bosnia & Herzegovina W61517%71.285.8-14.7
32 North Macedonia W61517%62.596.5-34.0
33 Czech Republic W2020%70.077.5-7.5
34 Sweden W3030%73.388.7-15.3
35 Estonia W6060%62.086.8-24.8
36 Norway W6060%51.075.8-24.8
37 Cyprus W6060%54.280.2-26.0
38 Azerbaijan W6060%45.7105.0-59.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 38 teams: scroll the table.
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.