SMU Mustangs face VMI on 5 November 2026 in an NCAA matchup where the Mustangs are the clear favourite, the model rating them 97% to win thanks to a 1-0 season record, 85.0 points per game and 72.0 allowed per game, while VMI sits 1-0 with 115.0 points per game and 83.0 allowed per game; SMU's single home game was a 85-72 win over Southern Univ., and their last five games show two wins and three losses, with a recent 85-72 victory, a 79-89 loss to Miami (Ohio) and a 58-62 defeat at Louisville; VMI's last five include one win, four losses, a 115-83 win at home over Virginia-Lynchburg, a 70-84 loss to NC Greensboro and a 79-86 loss to Chattanooga Mocs; the two teams have not met before; Pythia projects a 92-69 score, a 161.1 total, with SMU covering the -25.0 line 43% of the time and the over on the 156.5 line 61% of the time, and a 1% chance of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SMU Mustangs winWon
97.4%fair 1.03
Best odds1.02
Implied94.5%
Edge+2.9pp
VMI winLost
2.6%fair 38.07
Best odds26.00
Implied5.5%
Edge-2.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 04 Nov 06:58 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 151.5Actual: Over 151.5
Over 151.5
72.4%
@ 1.39+3.4pp
Under 151.5
27.6%
@ 3.20-3.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.31
Under
Bet365
3.20
Betano
2.82
Over/Under 156.5 · main lineActual: Over 156.5
Over 156.5
61.1%
@ 1.83+9.6pp
Under 156.5
38.9%
@ 2.25-9.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.55
Under
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.22
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Over/Under 161.5Actual: Over 161.5
Over 161.5
48.8%
@ 2.10+2.6pp
Under 161.5
51.2%
@ 1.75-2.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.05
WilliamHill
2.00
Marathon Be
1.98
Under
Betano
1.75
WilliamHill
1.73
Marathon Be
1.73
Bet365
1.66
📊 3. Team Totals
SMU Mustangs total 86.5Actual: SMU Mustangs over 86.5
Over 86.5
71.7%
@ 1.32+1.7pp
Under 86.5
28.3%
@ 3.25-1.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.29
Under
1xBet
3.25
Betano
2.85
SMU Mustangs total 90.5 · main lineActual: SMU Mustangs over 90.5
Over 90.5
56.7%
@ 1.85+6.7pp
Under 90.5
43.3%
@ 2.12-6.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.12
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
SMU Mustangs total 94.5Actual: SMU Mustangs over 94.5
Over 94.5
40.6%
@ 2.38-0.6pp
Under 94.5
59.4%
@ 1.60+0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.38
Betano
2.10
Under
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.53
VMI total 62.5Actual: VMI over 62.5
Over 62.5
73.9%
@ 1.33+4.6pp
Under 62.5
26.1%
@ 3.15-4.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.32
Under
Bet365
3.15
Betano
2.85
VMI total 66.5 · main lineActual: VMI over 66.5
Over 66.5
59.4%
@ 1.85+7.9pp
Under 66.5
40.6%
@ 2.02-7.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.02
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
VMI total 70.5Actual: VMI under 70.5
Over 70.5
43.4%
@ 2.55+5.9pp
Under 70.5
56.6%
@ 1.50-5.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.30
Under
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.47
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread SMU Mustangs -28Actual: VMI +28
SMU -28
no forecast
@ 2.35
VMI +28
no forecast
@ 1.54
Best 5 market prices
SMU
Bet365
2.35
VMI
Bet365
1.54
Spread SMU Mustangs -25 · main linePush
SMU -25
43.4%
@ 1.94-7.1pp
VMI +25
56.6%
@ 1.93+7.1pp
Best 5 market prices
SMU
Bet365
1.94
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.84
VMI
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.80
Spread SMU Mustangs -22Actual: SMU Mustangs -22
SMU -22
54.5%
@ 1.60-3.4pp
VMI +22
45.5%
@ 2.20+3.4pp
Best 5 market prices
SMU
Bet365
1.60
VMI
Bet365
2.20
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
SMU MustangsVMI
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisville
#53
W
52-49
52
49
+3
H18/02
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H21/02
NCAA
California
#79
L
33-38
33
38
-5
A26/02
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
27-34
27
34
-7
A28/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
31-38
31
38
-7
H05/03
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
27-45
27
45
-18
A07/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H10/03
NCAA
Louisville
#53
D
26-26
26
26
+0
A11/03
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
34-43
34
43
-9
H19/03
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#403
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H03/11
NCAA
73.4Avg total
34.9Scored
38.5Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 76.5
Last 30 (30)
39.3
37.6
76.9
+1.7
57%
57%
Last 30 at home (17)
42.4
36.8
79.2
+5.6
76%
71%
Last 30 away (13)
35.3
38.7
74.0
-3.4
31%
38%
Last 10 (10)
34.9
38.5
73.4
-3.6
40%
40%
Last 5 (5)
33.2
38.0
71.2
-4.8
40%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)
37.6
41.3
78.9
-3.7
29%
57%
vs Similar (14)
39.1
37.5
76.6
+1.6
50%
57%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)
41.1
34.9
76.0
+6.2
89%
56%
This opponent (VMI) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
SMU Mustangs (regulation)
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Over 150.5
74.4%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
VMI over 63.5
70.5%
1.42
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Over 149.5
76.4%
1.32
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 74.5
96.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 76.5
94.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 72.5
97.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 73.5
97.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
VMI over 62.5
73.9%
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
VMI over 60.5
80.0%
1.24
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 75.5
95.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 78.5
91.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 80.5
88.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 77.5
93.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Over 151.5
72.4%
1.35
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
VMI over 61.5
77.1%
1.27
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.23
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
VMI over 53.5
93.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
VMI over 54.5
92.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
SMU Mustangs win
97.4%
1.02
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Over 134.5
95.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 79.5
90.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
SMU Mustangs under 98.5
74.0%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
VMI over 57.5
87.3%
1.10
1xBet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 85.5
75.0%
1.28
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.27
1xBet
1.25
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 81.5
86.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
VMI over 55.5
91.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
SMU Mustangs -4.5
94.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Over 152.5
70.2%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
SMU Mustangs under 99.5
77.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 82.5
83.6%
1.14
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Over 152
71.8%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
VMI over 56.5
89.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 86.5
71.7%
1.31
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
VMI over 58.5
85.1%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Over 139.5
91.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
VMI over 59.5
82.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
SMU Mustangs under 97.5
70.6%
1.33
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.34
1xBet
1.30
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 83.5
81.0%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Over 144.5
84.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
VMI under 82.5
91.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
SMU Mustangs -9.5
88.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
SMU Mustangs -16.5
72.4%
1.27
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
SMU Mustangs -14.5
77.9%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
VMI under 80.5
87.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
Under 179.5
87.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
SMU Mustangs -17
71.6%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
VMI under 78.5
83.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Won
VMI under 76.5
77.8%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Under 174.5
79.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
VMI under 77.5
80.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Under 169.5
70.1%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-5.2pp
Won
VMI under 74.5
71.5%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Won
VMI under 75.5
74.8%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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