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Louisville vs SMU Mustangs Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 18:30
Final 62-58
26-26 36-32
Position#53
Record22-9
FormWLLWW
Points / game85.9
Allowed / game72.5
Louisville 🏆
USA
vs
SMU Mustangs
USA
Position#129
Record20-12
FormLLLLW
Points / game85.0
Allowed / game78.1
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Louisville v SMU Mustangs
11 Mar 2026
LOUI62
SMU 58
31 Jan 2026
LOUI88
SMU 74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Louisville winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
SMU Mustangs winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LouisvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Notre Dame
#269
W
76-65
76
65
+11
H05/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
88-80
88
80
+8
A07/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
118-77
118
77
+41
H10/02
NCAA
Baylor
#200
W
82-71
82
71
+11
A14/02
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
85-95
85
95
-10
A18/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
87-70
87
70
+17
H21/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
74-77
74
77
-3
A24/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
75-80
75
80
-5
A28/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
77-62
77
62
+15
H04/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
92-89
92
89
+3
A07/03
NCAA
1H
2H
38-32
38-33
43-34
45-46
56-36
62-41
34-34
48-37
49-52
36-43
42-31
45-39
38-39
36-38
35-38
40-42
39-21
38-41
46-37
46-52
162.0Avg total
85.4Scored
76.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)85.972.5158.3+13.471%
Season at home (18)90.768.1158.8+22.689%
Season away (13)79.278.5157.7+0.846%
Last 10 (10)85.476.6162.0+8.870%
Last 5 (5)81.075.6156.6+5.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)62.583.5146.0-21.00%
vs Similar (5)75.683.4159.0-7.820%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)89.370.3159.7+19.087%
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SMU MustangsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pittsburgh
#282
W
86-67
86
67
+19
A07/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
89-81
89
81
+8
H11/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
L
78-79
78
79
-1
A14/02
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
95-85
95
85
+10
H18/02
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
94-70
94
70
+24
H21/02
NCAA
California
#79
L
69-73
69
73
-4
A26/02
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
75-95
75
95
-20
A28/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
69-77
69
77
-8
H05/03
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
78-91
78
91
-13
A07/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
86-69
86
69
+17
H10/03
NCAA
1H
2H
34-32
52-35
43-37
46-44
39-35
39-44
52-49
43-36
40-36
54-34
33-38
36-35
27-34
48-61
31-38
38-39
27-45
51-46
39-38
47-31
160.6Avg total
81.9Scored
78.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (32)85.078.1163.1+6.962%
Season at home (20)89.675.7165.2+13.985%
Season away (12)77.482.2159.6-4.825%
Last 10 (10)81.978.7160.6+3.250%
Last 5 (5)75.481.0156.4-5.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)76.484.0160.4-7.620%
vs Similar (15)84.080.7164.7+3.353%
vs Weaker (10)91.473.4164.8+18.090%
This opponent (Louisville) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.6+6.61st half: -1.7-1.72nd half2nd half: +2.2+2.22nd half: +4.9+4.9
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.6+6.61st half: -1.7-1.72nd half2nd half: +2.2+2.22nd half: +4.9+4.9
LouisvilleSMU Mustangs
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
LouisvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Notre Dame
#269
W
38-32
38
32
+6
H05/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
43-34
43
34
+9
A07/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
56-36
56
36
+20
H10/02
NCAA
Baylor
#200
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A14/02
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
49-52
49
52
-3
A18/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
42-31
42
31
+11
H21/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
38-39
38
39
-1
A24/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
35-38
35
38
-3
A28/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
39-21
39
21
+18
H04/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
46-37
46
37
+9
A07/03
NCAA
77.4Avg total
42.0Scored
35.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.533.975.4+7.660%-
Last 30 at home (17)44.331.876.1+12.582%-
Last 30 away (13)37.836.674.5+1.231%-
Last 10 (10)42.035.477.4+6.660%-
Last 5 (5)40.033.273.2+6.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)37.538.075.5-0.550%-
vs Similar (5)33.638.071.6-4.420%-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)43.632.676.2+11.070%-
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pittsburgh
#282
W
34-32
34
32
+2
A07/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
43-37
43
37
+6
H11/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
39-35
39
35
+4
A14/02
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
52-49
52
49
+3
H18/02
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H21/02
NCAA
California
#79
L
33-38
33
38
-5
A26/02
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
27-34
27
34
-7
A28/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
31-38
31
38
-7
H05/03
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
27-45
27
45
-18
A07/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H10/03
NCAA
74.7Avg total
36.5Scored
38.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.437.778.1+2.760%-
Last 30 at home (18)43.336.479.7+6.978%-
Last 30 away (12)36.139.875.8-3.733%-
Last 10 (10)36.538.274.7-1.760%-
Last 5 (5)31.438.670.0-7.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)40.644.084.6-3.440%-
vs Similar (15)39.737.877.5+1.953%-
vs Weaker (10)41.334.575.8+6.880%-
This opponent (Louisville) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Louisville wins
1
SMU Mustangs wins
DateGameScore
18/02/26SMU Mustangs v Louisville95-85
31/01/26Louisville v SMU Mustangs88-74
22/01/25SMU Mustangs v Louisville73-98
Louisvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/03/26AMiami (FL)92-89
04/03/26HSyracuse77-62
28/02/26AClemson75-80
24/02/26ANorth Carolina74-77
21/02/26HGeorgia Tech87-70
18/02/26ASMU Mustangs85-95
14/02/26ABaylor82-71
10/02/26HNC State118-77
07/02/26AWake Forest88-80
05/02/26HNotre Dame76-65
SMU Mustangslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/03/26HSyracuse86-69
07/03/26AFlorida State78-91
05/03/26HMiami (FL)69-77
28/02/26AStanford75-95
26/02/26ACalifornia69-73
21/02/26HBoston College94-70
18/02/26HLouisville95-85
14/02/26ASyracuse78-79
11/02/26HNotre Dame89-81
07/02/26APittsburgh86-67

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Louisville
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW71%
HomeWWWWW89%
AwayWLLLW46%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311813
Win %71%89%46%
Points / game85.990.779.2
Allowed / game72.568.178.5
Point differential+13.4+22.6+0.8
Avg total158.3158.8157.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+58%78%31%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (4)-25% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
SMU Mustangs
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW62%
HomeWWWLW85%
AwayWLLLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games322012
Win %62%85%25%
Points / game85.089.677.4
Allowed / game78.175.782.2
Point differential+6.9+13.9-4.8
Avg total163.1165.2159.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+47%65%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (8)60% (5)0% (3)
Overtime %6%5%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke3129294%82.962.5+20.5
2 Virginia3227584%80.069.4+10.6
3 Miami (FL)3124777%82.770.7+12.0
4 North Carolina3124777%79.871.0+8.8
5 Louisville3122971%85.972.5+13.4
6 Clemson3122971%74.566.3+8.2
7 California31211068%77.572.5+5.0
8 NC State32201262%84.076.4+7.6
9 SMU Mustangs32201262%85.078.1+6.9
10 Stanford32201262%76.072.7+3.3
11 Virginia Tech32191359%78.874.9+3.9
12 Florida State31171455%79.977.5+2.4
13 Wake Forest32171553%79.477.2+2.1
14 Syracuse32151747%75.074.2+0.8
15 Notre Dame31131842%74.575.3-0.9
16 Pittsburgh33132039%70.571.8-1.3
17 Boston College31112035%67.470.7-3.3
18 Georgia Tech31112035%73.877.4-3.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Louisville263662
SMU Mustangs263258
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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