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Southern Indiana vs Western Michigan Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 21:30
Projected 74-67
Projected total 141.2
Scheduled
Position#297
Record1-3
FormLLWLL
Points / game78.0
Allowed / game66.5
Southern Indiana
USA
Vs
75%
25%
■ SOUT 75%■ WEST 25%
Pythia win probability
Western Michigan
USA
Position#103
Record3-1
FormLLWWW
Points / game79.0
Allowed / game60.8
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Southern Indiana faces Western Michigan on 15 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating Southern Indiana as the favourite at 75% to 25%. Southern Indiana's season record of 1-3, 78.0 points per game and 66.5 allowed per game, coupled with a perfect 1-0 home record and a 112-42 home win, underpins the model's confidence, while Western Michigan's stronger 3-1 record, 79.0 points per game and 60.8 allowed per game, and a 1-1 road record show a competitive edge but less dominance at home. The teams have met once before, with Western Michigan winning 88-74 on 3 December 2025. Pythia projects a 74-67 score, 141.2 total points, and a 6.0-point home line that Southern Indiana covers with 88% probability; the over on a 141.5 line has a 49% chance, and a 4% chance of overtime. Southern Indiana's recent 70-74 loss to IU Indy and a 112-42 home victory illustrate the volatility of their early season, while Western Michigan's recent 81-59, 87-71 and 99-52 wins show consistency on the road. The game will hinge on whether Southern Indiana can repeat its dominant home performance against a team that has already bested them.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Southern Indiana win
74.6%fair 1.34
Best odds3.72
Implied26.6%
Edge+48.0pp
Western Michigan win
25.4%fair 3.94
Best odds1.31
Implied73.4%
Edge-48.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 22:22 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Southern IndianaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tennessee State
#51
L
71-73
71
73
-2
H13/02
NCAA
Tennessee Tech
#270
L
74-82
74
82
-8
H14/02
NCAA
Western Illinois
#366
W
77-70
77
70
+7
A20/02
NCAA
Eastern Illinois
#285
W
70-68
70
68
+2
A21/02
NCAA
Morehead State
#112
L
63-64
63
64
-1
A25/02
NCAA
UALR
#295
L
70-89
70
89
-19
A28/02
NCAA
Belmont
#119
L
54-72
54
72
-18
A03/11
NCAA
SMWC Pomeroys
#533
W
112-42
112
42
+70
H05/11
NCAA
Evansville
#229
L
76-78 OT
76
78
-2
A08/11
NCAA
IU Indy
#125
L
70-74
70
74
-4
A11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
37-29
34-44
32-35
42-47
30-29
47-41
36-20
34-48
29-29
34-35
31-51
39-38
14-27
40-45
58-17
54-25
35-30
34-39
31-30
39-44
144.9Avg total
73.7Scored
71.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)78.066.5144.5+11.525%
Season at home (1)112.042.0154.0+70.0100%
Season away (3)66.774.7141.3-8.00%
Last 10 (10)73.771.2144.9+2.530%
Last 5 (5)76.471.0147.4+5.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)64.173.4137.5-9.26%
vs Similar (9)66.273.7139.9-7.422%
vs Weaker (3)83.070.7153.7+12.367%
This opponent (Western Michigan) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Western MichiganUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Akron
#14
L
73-90
73
90
-17
H18/02
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
L
70-83
70
83
-13
A21/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
88-79
88
79
+9
A25/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
67-69
67
69
-2
H27/02
NCAA
Ball State
#288
L
71-74 OT
71
74
-3
H04/03
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
78-86
78
86
-8
A07/03
NCAA
Old Dominion
#59
L
49-61
49
61
-12
A03/11
NCAA
Kalamazoo
#477
W
99-52
99
52
+47
H06/11
NCAA
Campbell
#316
W
87-71
87
71
+16
H08/11
NCAA
IPFW
#277
W
81-59
81
59
+22
A13/11
NCAA
1H
2H
34-53
39-37
33-40
37-43
41-38
47-41
30-26
37-43
22-25
39-36
37-46
41-40
24-30
25-31
45-19
54-33
41-35
46-36
35-28
46-31
148.7Avg total
76.3Scored
72.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)79.060.8139.8+18.275%
Season at home (2)93.061.5154.5+31.5100%
Season away (2)65.060.0125.0+5.050%
Last 10 (10)76.372.4148.7+3.940%
Last 5 (5)78.865.8144.6+13.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)71.584.4155.9-12.912%
vs Similar (10)72.971.7144.6+1.250%
vs Weaker ◀ (3)87.362.3149.7+25.0100%
This opponent (Southern Indiana) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 134.5
Over 134.5
65.3%
@ 1.45+0.4pp
Under 134.5
34.7%
@ 2.75-0.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.52
Over/Under 139.5 · main line
Over 139.5
53.5%
@ 1.90+3.2pp
Under 139.5
46.5%
@ 2.00-3.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.85
SBO
1.81
Marathon Be
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Be
1.93
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.92
WilliamHill
1.91
Over/Under 144.5
Over 144.5
41.4%
@ 2.40+2.8pp
Under 144.5
58.6%
@ 1.52-2.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.40
Under
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50

📊 3. Team Totals

Southern Indiana total 63.5
Over 63.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
Under 63.5
no forecast
@ 2.55
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.25
Southern Indiana total 68 · main line
Over 68
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under 68
no forecast
@ 1.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Southern Indiana total 72
Over 72
59.5%
Under 72
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Western Michigan total 70
Over 70
37.0%
Under 70
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Western Michigan total 74 · main line
Over 74
23.3%
@ 1.87-26.7pp
Under 74
76.7%
@ 1.85+26.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Western Michigan total 78
Over 78
13.3%
Under 78
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Southern Indiana +4.5
SOUT +4.5
84.2%
@ 2.30+40.9pp
WEST -4.5
15.8%
@ 1.83-40.9pp
Best 5 market prices
SOUT
Betano
2.30
Bet365
2.30
Pinnacle
2.20
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
WEST
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.78
Marathon Be
1.71
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.57
Spread Southern Indiana +7.5 · main line
SOUT +7.5
89.7%
@ 1.91+39.3pp
WEST -7.5
10.3%
@ 1.94-39.3pp
Best 5 market prices
SOUT
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
WEST
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
SBO
1.85
Spread Southern Indiana +10.5
SOUT +10.5
93.5%
@ 1.57+33.7pp
WEST -10.5
6.5%
@ 2.40-33.7pp
Best 5 market prices
SOUT
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.54
WEST
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.22

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: +3.6+3.61st half: +0.2+0.22nd half2nd half: -0.9-0.92nd half: +4.0+4.0
-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: +3.6+3.61st half: +0.2+0.22nd half2nd half: -0.9-0.92nd half: +4.0+4.0
Southern IndianaWestern Michigan
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Southern IndianaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tennessee State
#51
W
37-29
37
29
+8
H13/02
NCAA
Tennessee Tech
#270
L
32-35
32
35
-3
H14/02
NCAA
Western Illinois
#366
W
30-29
30
29
+1
A20/02
NCAA
Eastern Illinois
#285
W
36-20
36
20
+16
A21/02
NCAA
Morehead State
#112
D
29-29
29
29
+0
A25/02
NCAA
UALR
#295
L
31-51
31
51
-20
A28/02
NCAA
Belmont
#119
L
14-27
14
27
-13
A03/11
NCAA
SMWC Pomeroys
#533
W
58-17
58
17
+41
H05/11
NCAA
Evansville
#229
W
35-30
35
30
+5
A08/11
NCAA
IU Indy
#125
W
31-30
31
30
+1
A11/11
NCAA
63.0Avg total
33.3Scored
29.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 65.5
Last 30 (30)33.332.665.9+0.650%50%
Last 30 at home (12)36.830.066.8+6.867%67%
Last 30 away (18)30.934.465.3-3.439%39%
Last 10 (10)33.329.763.0+3.660%40%
Last 5 (5)33.831.064.8+2.860%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)32.434.466.8-1.938%50%
vs Similar (9)29.032.861.8-3.844%44%
vs Weaker (3)38.730.068.7+8.7100%33%
This opponent (Western Michigan) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Western MichiganLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Akron
#14
L
34-53
34
53
-19
H18/02
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A21/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
41-38
41
38
+3
A25/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
W
30-26
30
26
+4
H27/02
NCAA
Ball State
#288
L
22-25
22
25
-3
H04/03
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
37-46
37
46
-9
A07/03
NCAA
Old Dominion
#59
L
24-30
24
30
-6
A03/11
NCAA
Kalamazoo
#477
W
45-19
45
19
+26
H06/11
NCAA
Campbell
#316
W
41-35
41
35
+6
H08/11
NCAA
IPFW
#277
W
35-28
35
28
+7
A13/11
NCAA
68.2Avg total
34.2Scored
34.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 65.5
Last 30 (30)33.336.569.8-3.337%63%
Last 30 at home (14)35.534.169.6+1.450%71%
Last 30 away (16)31.338.770.0-7.425%56%
Last 10 (10)34.234.068.2+0.250%50%
Last 5 (5)36.431.668.0+4.860%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)32.140.472.6-8.325%69%
vs Similar (10)31.533.565.0-2.030%60%
vs Weaker ◀ (3)41.331.773.0+9.7100%67%
This opponent (Southern Indiana) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
SOUT win
no forecast
@ 2.87
WEST win
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half Spread Southern Indiana +4.5 · main line
SOUT +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.86
WEST -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
1st half Over/Under 65.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 2.07
Southern Indiana 1st half total 32 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Western Michigan 1st half total 35.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
1st half: SOUT + total 65.5
SOUT & over
no forecast
@ 5.75
SOUT & under
no forecast
@ 6.00
1st half: Draw + total 65.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 23.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 26.00
1st half: WEST + total 65.5
WEST & over
no forecast
@ 2.70
WEST & under
no forecast
@ 2.75
1st half Spread Southern Indiana +3.5
SOUT +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.98
WEST -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
1st half Spread Southern Indiana +5.5
SOUT +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
WEST -5.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 63.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.50
Under
no forecast
@ 2.37
1st half Over/Under 67.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.02
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Spread Southern Indiana +2.5
SOUT +2.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
WEST -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Spread Southern Indiana +6.5
SOUT +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
WEST -6.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
1st half Over/Under 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.32
Under
no forecast
@ 1.53
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
SOUT
no forecast
@ 3.16
Draw
no forecast
@ 23.00
WEST
no forecast
@ 1.47

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
SOUT win + total 139.5
🔒 Pro
WEST win + total 139.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: SOUT leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: WEST leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Southern Indiana win74.6%3.48
1xBet
3.72
Pinnacle
3.61
Bet365
3.60
WilliamHill
3.50
Betano
3.45		+48.0pp
Southern Indiana +176.2%3.20
Bet365
3.20		----+47.2pp
Southern Indiana (regulation)72.2%3.36
Marathon Bet
3.60
Betano
3.55
1xBet
2.92		--+46.9pp
Southern Indiana over 68.571.9%2.03
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.18
Pinnacle
2.13
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87		+27.8pp
Western Michigan under 7476.7%1.84
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83		--+26.7pp
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Southern Indiana wins
1
Western Michigan wins
DateGameScore
04/12/25Western Michigan v Southern Indiana88-74
Southern Indianalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AIU Indy70-74
08/11/26AEvansville76-78 OT
05/11/26HSMWC Pomeroys112-42
03/11/26ABelmont54-72
28/02/26AUALR70-89
25/02/26AMorehead State63-64
21/02/26AEastern Illinois70-68
20/02/26AWestern Illinois77-70
14/02/26HTennessee Tech74-82
13/02/26HTennessee State71-73
Western Michiganlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26AIPFW81-59
08/11/26HCampbell87-71
06/11/26HKalamazoo99-52
03/11/26AOld Dominion49-61
07/03/26AKent State78-86
04/03/26HBall State71-74 OT
27/02/26HMiami (Ohio)67-69
25/02/26ABowling Green88-79
21/02/26ACentral Michigan70-83
18/02/26HAkron73-90

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Southern Indiana
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLL25%
HomeW100%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games413
Win %25%100%0%
Points / game78.0112.066.7
Allowed / game66.542.074.7
Point differential+11.5+70.0-8.0
Avg total144.5154.0141.3
Over 139.575%100%67%
Win by 10+25%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)-0% (2)
Overtime %25%0%33%
Western Michigan
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWW75%
HomeWW100%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %75%100%50%
Points / game79.093.065.0
Allowed / game60.861.560.0
Point differential+18.2+31.5+5.0
Avg total139.8154.5125.0
Over 139.575%100%50%
Win by 10+75%100%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Ohio Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Tennessee State42250%98.077.8+20.2
2 UT Martin42250%85.074.2+10.8
3 Southeast Missouri State42250%79.877.5+2.2
4 Tennessee Tech42250%92.090.0+2.0
5 Morehead State42250%77.081.2-4.2
6 Lindenwood52340%82.069.8+12.2
7 Siu Edwardsville52340%71.672.8-1.2
8 Southern Indiana41325%78.066.5+11.5
9 Western Illinois41325%74.573.2+1.2
10 UALR41325%76.085.5-9.5
11 Eastern Illinois41325%69.080.0-11.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Akron330100%84.062.7+21.3
2 Central Michigan440100%83.865.8+18.0
3 Bowling Green330100%86.376.0+10.3
4 Miami (Ohio)330100%84.076.0+8.0
5 Western Michigan43175%79.060.8+18.2
6 Eastern Michigan32167%77.363.3+14.0
7 UMass32167%66.064.3+1.7
8 Ohio32167%76.075.7+0.3
9 Northern Illinois53260%79.473.2+6.2
10 Toledo52340%73.077.2-4.2
11 Kent State31233%83.375.3+8.0
12 Buffalo31233%77.779.0-1.3
13 Ball State41325%68.872.5-3.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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