St. Bonaventure will host Youngstown State on 2 November 2026 in an NCAA contest that the Pythia model predicts to be a low-scoring affair, with both teams expected to struggle to break 80 points. St. Bonaventure enters the game with a 2-3 record over its last five outings, having beaten George Mason 63-57, La Salle 99-80 and lost to Dayton 63-68, while Youngstown State also sits at 2-3 after defeats to Robert Morris, Wisc. Green Bay and Wisc. Milwaukee. In the single meeting recorded between the sides, St. Bonaventure won 84-80 on 15 November 2025, giving the home team a historical edge. The Pythia model favours St. Bonaventure with a 60% chance of victory versus 40% for Youngstown State, projecting a 75-72 scoreline and a total of 147.4 points. The home line of -10.5 carries only a 25% probability of being covered, while the over on 153.5 points is expected with a 35% chance. An overtime probability of 5% suggests the game could stay within regulation. The final projected score of 75-72 reflects the modest offensive output anticipated from both squads.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
St. Bonaventure winLost
59.9%fair 1.67
Best odds1.18
Implied81.1%
Edge-21.2pp
Youngstown State winWon
40.1%fair 2.49
Best odds5.50
Implied18.9%
Edge+21.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
St. Bonaventure total 78Actual: St. Bonaventure under 78
Over 78
38.4%
Under 78
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Bonaventure total 82 · main lineActual: St. Bonaventure under 82
Over 82
24.2%
@ 1.85-25.8pp
Under 82
75.8%
@ 1.85+25.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
St. Bonaventure total 86Actual: St. Bonaventure under 86
Over 86
13.6%
Under 86
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Youngstown State total 67.5Actual: Youngstown State over 67.5
Over 67.5
67.7%
@ 1.38+1.9pp
Under 67.5
32.3%
@ 2.65-1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Under
Betano
2.65
Youngstown State total 71.5 · main lineActual: Youngstown State over 71.5
Over 71.5
52.8%
@ 1.91+2.8pp
Under 71.5
47.2%
@ 1.87-2.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83
Under
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Youngstown State total 75.5Actual: Youngstown State over 75.5
Over 75.5
37.6%
@ 2.55+2.1pp
Under 75.5
62.4%
@ 1.40-2.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Under
Betano
1.40
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread St. Bonaventure -13.5Actual: Youngstown State +13.5
ST. -13.5
17.5%
@ 2.37-21.7pp
YOUN +13.5
82.5%
@ 1.54+21.7pp
Best 5 market prices
ST.
Betano
2.37
Bet365
2.35
YOUN
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.50
Spread St. Bonaventure -10.5 · main lineActual: Youngstown State +10.5
ST. -10.5
25.0%
@ 1.94-24.6pp
YOUN +10.5
75.0%
@ 1.91+24.6pp
Best 5 market prices
ST.
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.87
YOUN
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
Betano
1.85
Spread St. Bonaventure -7.5Actual: Youngstown State +7.5
ST. -7.5
34.4%
@ 1.55-25.5pp
YOUN +7.5
65.6%
@ 2.35+25.5pp
Best 5 market prices
ST.
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
YOUN
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.27
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
St. BonaventureYoungstown State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Youngstown State win
ST. win
no forecast
@ 1.42
YOUN win
no forecast
@ 2.92
2nd half Spread St. Bonaventure -4.5 · main lineActual: Youngstown State +4.5
ST. -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
YOUN +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Over/Under 80.5 · main lineActual: Over 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Youngstown State (regulation)
ST.
no forecast
@ 1.45
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.00
YOUN
no forecast
@ 2.95
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Youngstown State +9
71.1%
2.15
Pinnacle
2.19
Bet365
2.10
-
-
-
+27.4pp
Won
Youngstown State +9.5
72.1%
1.98
Pinnacle
2.10
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.96
BetVictor
1.88
+26.5pp
Won
Youngstown State +10
74.2%
1.95
Pinnacle
2.00
SBO
1.96
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.89
-
+26.3pp
Won
St. Bonaventure under 82
75.8%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+25.8pp
Won
St. Bonaventure under 82.5
76.5%
1.81
1xBet
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
-
-
+25.7pp
Won
Youngstown State +10.5
75.0%
1.86
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.85
Betano
1.85
+24.6pp
Won
Youngstown State +11
77.1%
1.79
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.79
SBO
1.78
-
+24.1pp
Won
St. Bonaventure under 81.5
73.4%
1.88
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
+23.7pp
Won
Youngstown State +13
82.1%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+23.2pp
Won
Youngstown State +12
79.7%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.66
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Won
Youngstown State +11.5
77.7%
1.74
1xBet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.73
Betano
1.72
+22.5pp
Won
St. Bonaventure under 81
72.5%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+22.5pp
Won
St. Bonaventure under 84.5
82.1%
1.52
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
-
+22.4pp
Won
Youngstown State +14
84.3%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+21.8pp
Won
Youngstown State +13.5
82.5%
1.52
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+21.7pp
Won
Youngstown State +12.5
80.2%
1.63
1xBet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.60
-
+21.2pp
Won
St. Bonaventure under 85.5
84.5%
1.44
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+21.0pp
Won
St. Bonaventure under 80.5
70.1%
1.91
Betano
2.05
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
-
+20.9pp
Won
Youngstown State +14.5
84.6%
1.44
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+20.5pp
Won
Youngstown State +15
86.2%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+20.2pp
Won
St. Bonaventure under 83.5
79.4%
1.57
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+20.0pp
Won
St. Bonaventure under 86.5
86.7%
1.35
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
-
+19.9pp
Won
Youngstown State +15.5
86.5%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+19.4pp
Won
St. Bonaventure under 87.5
88.7%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
+18.7pp
Won
Youngstown State +16
88.0%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+18.5pp
Won
Youngstown State +16.5
88.2%
1.32
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+18.1pp
Won
Youngstown State +17
89.6%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+17.2pp
Won
Youngstown State +17.5
89.7%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Won
Youngstown State +18
91.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+15.9pp
Won
Youngstown State +18.5
91.1%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+15.8pp
Won
St. Bonaventure under 89.5
92.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+15.8pp
Won
Under 156
70.7%
1.64
Marathon Bet
1.64
Bet365
1.64
-
-
-
+14.3pp
Won
St. Bonaventure under 91.5
94.5%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Won
Under 156.5
71.3%
1.60
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
+13.6pp
Won
Under 157.5
73.3%
1.54
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
+13.4pp
Won
Under 157
72.8%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+13.0pp
Won
Youngstown State +20.5
93.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+12.9pp
Won
Youngstown State +19.5
92.3%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Won
Under 158.5
75.2%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+12.7pp
Won
Under 158
74.7%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+12.2pp
Won
Under 159
76.6%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Won
Under 159.5
77.0%
1.42
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Won
Under 160.5
78.8%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Won
Under 160
78.4%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
Under 161
80.1%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+10.6pp
Won
St. Bonaventure under 90.5
93.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
Under 161.5
80.5%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Won
Under 163.5
83.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Won
Youngstown State +24.5
96.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
Youngstown State over 65.5
74.4%
1.34
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Under 168.5
89.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Under 173.5
93.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Under 176.5
95.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Under 166.5
87.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Under 171.5
92.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Overtime: no
94.7%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.03
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+3.0pp
-
Youngstown State over 56.5
93.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Youngstown State over 58.5
91.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Youngstown State over 66.5
71.1%
1.32
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Youngstown State over 62.5
82.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Youngstown State over 64.5
77.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Youngstown State over 61.5
85.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Youngstown State over 60.5
87.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Youngstown State under 84.5
87.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Youngstown State under 82.5
83.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Youngstown State under 81.5
81.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Youngstown State under 80.5
78.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
St. Bonaventure +10.5
87.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
Over 126.5
89.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Youngstown State under 78.5
72.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Lost
Over 128.5
87.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
St. Bonaventure over 63.5
87.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.6pp
Won
St. Bonaventure +9.5
85.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Over 131.5
83.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.5pp
Won
St. Bonaventure +6.5
78.5%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-8.1pp
Lost
St. Bonaventure over 65.5
82.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-8.5pp
Won
Over 133.5
79.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-9.6pp
Won
Over 136.5
74.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-10.8pp
Won
St. Bonaventure over 67.5
77.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-12.5pp
Won
Over 138.5
70.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-14.9pp
Won
St. Bonaventure +4.5
72.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-15.2pp
Lost
St. Bonaventure over 69.5
70.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-16.7pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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