St. John's (N.Y.) will host Monmouth on 2 November 2026 in an NCAA contest that the Pythia model deems a clear favourite for the home side, rating an 84% chance of victory largely because of the team's dominant 78-67 projected score and the 78 points they are expected to score. The home squad has won four of their last five games, including a 79-53 home win over Northern Iowa, a 67-65 away victory over Kansas and a 75-80 loss to Duke, while Monmouth has also won four of their last five, with a 74-64 home win over Campbell and a 65-57 home win over Drexel, but a 69-75 loss to Hofstra. Their only meeting was in December 2021, when St. John's (N.Y.) edged Monmouth 88-83. The Pythia model projects a total of 145.4 points, well below the 154.5 over/under line, giving only a 28% chance of an over and a 3% chance of overtime. The home team's 84% win probability and the 78-67 scoreline underscore why the model favours St. John's (N.Y.) in this matchup.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 72.9 | 65.3 | 138.2 | +7.6 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 74.2 | 63.6 | 137.8 | +10.6 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 75.0 | 80.0 | 155.0 | -5.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (12) | 70.9 | 66.8 | 137.7 | +4.2 | 75% |
| vs Weaker (17) | 83.2 | 69.6 | 152.8 | +13.6 | 94% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 74.9 | 70.2 | 145.1 | +4.7 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 74.0 | 67.2 | 141.2 | +6.8 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (4) | 64.8 | 73.5 | 138.2 | -8.8 | 0% |
| vs Similar (20) | 72.7 | 69.2 | 141.9 | +3.5 | 65% |
| vs Weaker (6) | 78.5 | 73.8 | 152.3 | +4.7 | 83% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 74.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.8 | 32.9 | 71.7 | +5.8 | 73% | 37% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 40.2 | 31.0 | 71.2 | +9.2 | 75% | 31% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 37.1 | 35.1 | 72.2 | +1.9 | 71% | 43% |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.7 | 30.2 | 67.9 | +7.5 | 80% | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.8 | 30.0 | 69.8 | +9.8 | 100% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 40.0 | 39.0 | 79.0 | +1.0 | 100% | 100% |
| vs Similar (12) | 36.1 | 31.2 | 67.2 | +4.9 | 67% | 17% |
| vs Weaker (17) | 40.6 | 33.8 | 74.4 | +6.8 | 76% | 47% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 74.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.0 | 33.0 | 68.0 | +2.0 | 63% | 17% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 33.6 | 33.3 | 66.9 | +0.3 | 62% | 12% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 36.5 | 32.6 | 69.1 | +3.9 | 64% | 21% |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.3 | 32.5 | 69.8 | +4.8 | 60% | 20% |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.0 | 32.4 | 68.4 | +3.6 | 60% | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (4) | 31.2 | 33.0 | 64.2 | -1.8 | 25% | 0% |
| vs Similar (20) | 35.3 | 32.5 | 67.8 | +2.8 | 75% | 20% |
| vs Weaker (6) | 36.3 | 34.7 | 71.0 | +1.7 | 50% | 17% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth +20 | 78.3% | 3.65 | 3.65 | - | - | - | - | +52.8pp | Won |
| Monmouth +21 | 80.8% | 3.25 | 3.25 | - | - | - | - | +52.2pp | Won |
| Monmouth +19.5 | 76.3% | 3.75 | 3.75 | - | - | - | - | +51.6pp | Won |
| Monmouth +22 | 83.1% | 2.90 | 2.90 | - | - | - | - | +51.1pp | Won |
| Monmouth +17.5 | 70.6% | 4.75 | 4.75 | - | - | - | - | +51.1pp | Won |
| Monmouth +20.5 | 78.9% | 3.22 | 3.30 | 3.15 | - | - | - | +50.2pp | Won |
| Monmouth +21.5 | 81.2% | 2.98 | 3.05 | 2.92 | - | - | - | +50.2pp | Won |
| Monmouth +23 | 85.1% | 2.65 | 2.65 | - | - | - | - | +50.1pp | Won |
| Monmouth +24 | 87.0% | 2.50 | 2.50 | - | - | - | - | +49.5pp | Won |
| Monmouth +22.5 | 83.4% | 2.71 | 2.72 | 2.70 | - | - | - | +49.4pp | Won |
| Monmouth +23.5 | 85.4% | 2.52 | 2.55 | 2.50 | - | - | - | +48.6pp | Won |
| Monmouth +25 | 88.7% | 2.25 | 2.25 | - | - | - | - | +47.6pp | Won |
| Monmouth +24.5 | 87.2% | 2.31 | 2.32 | 2.30 | - | - | - | +47.2pp | Won |
| St. John's (N.Y.) under 84.5 | 73.0% | 3.50 | 3.50 | - | - | - | - | +46.6pp | Won |
| St. John's (N.Y.) under 86.5 | 79.2% | 2.75 | 2.75 | - | - | - | - | +46.3pp | Won |
| St. John's (N.Y.) under 87.5 | 82.0% | 2.51 | 2.62 | 2.52 | 2.40 | - | - | +45.9pp | Won |
| St. John's (N.Y.) under 88.5 | 84.5% | 2.34 | 2.38 | 2.30 | - | - | - | +45.2pp | Won |
| St. John's (N.Y.) under 85.5 | 76.2% | 2.95 | 3.20 | 2.85 | 2.80 | - | - | +43.8pp | Won |
| St. John's (N.Y.) under 89.5 | 86.7% | 2.10 | 2.10 | - | - | - | - | +43.5pp | Won |
| St. John's (N.Y.) under 91.5 | 90.6% | 1.88 | 1.99 | 1.88 | 1.86 | 1.85 | 1.85 | +42.9pp | Won |
| St. John's (N.Y.) under 91 | 90.4% | 1.85 | 1.85 | - | - | - | - | +40.4pp | Won |
| St. John's (N.Y.) under 90.5 | 88.8% | 1.89 | 2.00 | 1.91 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.83 | +39.2pp | Won |
| St. John's (N.Y.) under 90 | 88.5% | 1.85 | 1.85 | - | - | - | - | +38.5pp | Won |
| Under 155 | 73.0% | 1.89 | 2.00 | 1.86 | 1.80 | - | - | +25.2pp | Won |
| Under 154 | 70.9% | 1.96 | 1.97 | 1.94 | - | - | - | +23.2pp | Won |
| Under 154.5 | 71.5% | 1.88 | 1.92 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.88 | 1.85 | +22.0pp | Won |
| Under 155.5 | 73.5% | 1.79 | 1.82 | 1.82 | 1.80 | 1.74 | - | +21.9pp | Won |
| Under 156 | 75.0% | 1.74 | 1.77 | 1.71 | - | - | - | +21.1pp | Won |
| Under 156.5 | 75.5% | 1.70 | 1.72 | 1.70 | 1.68 | - | - | +20.8pp | Won |
| Under 157 | 76.9% | 1.66 | 1.68 | 1.64 | - | - | - | +20.5pp | Won |
| Under 157.5 | 77.3% | 1.61 | 1.62 | 1.60 | - | - | - | +20.0pp | Won |
| Under 158 | 78.7% | 1.57 | 1.57 | - | - | - | - | +19.8pp | Won |
| Under 158.5 | 79.1% | 1.54 | 1.55 | 1.54 | - | - | - | +19.2pp | Won |
| Under 159.5 | 80.8% | 1.48 | 1.50 | 1.47 | - | - | - | +18.3pp | Won |
| Under 159 | 80.5% | 1.50 | 1.50 | - | - | - | - | +18.0pp | Won |
| Under 160 | 82.1% | 1.44 | 1.44 | - | - | - | - | +17.6pp | Won |
| Under 160.5 | 82.4% | 1.42 | 1.44 | 1.40 | - | - | - | +17.3pp | Won |
| Under 161 | 83.7% | 1.38 | 1.38 | - | - | - | - | +16.7pp | Won |
| Under 161.5 | 83.9% | 1.37 | 1.39 | 1.35 | - | - | - | +16.2pp | Won |
| Under 162 | 85.1% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +15.6pp | Won |
| Under 162.5 | 85.3% | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | - | +14.4pp | Won |
| Monmouth over 61.5 | 70.1% | 1.60 | 1.60 | - | - | - | - | +13.3pp | Won |
| Monmouth over 60.5 | 73.4% | 1.52 | 1.53 | 1.50 | - | - | - | +12.7pp | Won |
| Under 164.5 | 87.9% | 1.23 | 1.23 | - | - | - | - | +12.6pp | Won |
| Monmouth over 58.5 | 79.6% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +12.2pp | Won |
| Monmouth over 59.5 | 76.6% | 1.43 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.42 | - | - | +12.1pp | Won |
| Monmouth over 57.5 | 82.3% | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | +10.7pp | Won |
| Under 169.5 | 92.8% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +8.4pp | Won |
| Monmouth over 56.5 | 84.7% | 1.21 | 1.22 | 1.20 | - | - | - | +8.1pp | Won |
| Monmouth over 55.5 | 87.0% | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | - | - | - | +8.1pp | Won |
| Under 167.5 | 91.1% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +7.3pp | Won |
| Under 174.5 | 96.0% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +6.6pp | Won |
| Under 172.5 | 94.9% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +5.5pp | Won |
| Monmouth under 79.5 | 88.8% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -4.9pp | Won |
| Monmouth under 77.5 | 84.9% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -6.6pp | Won |
| Over 127.5 | 86.3% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -7.4pp | Won |
| St. John's (N.Y.) (regulation) | 82.4% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -8.6pp | Won |
| Over 129.5 | 83.4% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -9.4pp | Won |
| Monmouth under 75.5 | 80.1% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -9.6pp | Won |
| St. John's (N.Y.) win | 84.3% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -10.3pp | Won |
| Monmouth under 73.5 | 74.3% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | -11.8pp | Won |
| Over 132.5 | 78.3% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | -11.9pp | Won |
| Monmouth under 72.5 | 71.1% | 1.10 | 1.12 | 1.09 | - | - | - | -13.5pp | Won |
| St. John's (N.Y.) over 70.5 | 78.7% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -14.9pp | Won |
| Over 134.5 | 74.5% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -15.1pp | Won |
| St. John's (N.Y.) over 71.5 | 75.7% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -18.0pp | Won |
| St. John's (N.Y.) over 72.5 | 72.5% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -19.7pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 10/12/21 | St. John's (N.Y.) v Monmouth | 88-83 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/26 | A | Duke | 75-80 |
| 22/03/26 | A | Kansas | 67-65 |
| 20/03/26 | H | Northern Iowa | 79-53 |
| 14/03/26 | H | Uconn | 72-52 |
| 13/03/26 | H | Seton Hall | 78-68 |
| 12/03/26 | H | Providence | 85-72 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Seton Hall | 72-65 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Georgetown | 72-69 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Villanova | 89-57 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Uconn | 40-72 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/26 | A | Hofstra | 69-75 |
| 09/03/26 | H | Campbell | 74-64 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Drexel | 65-57 |
| 04/03/26 | A | Northeastern | 89-83 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Elon | 73-57 |
| 27/02/26 | H | Stony Brook | 82-69 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Charleston | 63-74 |
| 20/02/26 | A | NC Wilmington | 69-79 |
| 16/02/26 | H | Towson | 72-71 |
| 13/02/26 | A | Drexel | 93-73 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over 154.5 | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over 154.5 | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Florida Argonauts | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 127.0 | 42.0 | +85.0 |
| 2 | Nicholls State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 110.0 | 56.0 | +54.0 |
| 3 | Illinois (Chi.) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 96.0 | 47.0 | +49.0 |
| 4 | Hofstra | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 97.0 | 51.0 | +46.0 |
| 5 | Middle Tenn. St. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 117.0 | 73.0 | +44.0 |
| 6 | South Carolina St | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 55.0 | +39.0 |
| 7 | South Dakota Coyotes | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 57.0 | +38.0 |
| 8 | IU Indy | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 113.0 | 76.0 | +37.0 |
| 9 | Mercer | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 90.0 | 53.0 | +37.0 |
| 10 | Princeton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 78.0 | 46.0 | +32.0 |
| 11 | VMI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 115.0 | 83.0 | +32.0 |
| 12 | Murray State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 64.0 | +30.0 |
| 13 | George Mason | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 82.0 | 54.0 | +28.0 |
| 14 | McNeese State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 99.0 | 78.0 | +21.0 |
| 15 | San Jose State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 74.0 | +21.0 |
| 16 | Michigan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 84.0 | 68.0 | +16.0 |
| 17 | High Point | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 72.0 | 57.0 | +15.0 |
| 18 | Merrimack Warriors | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 63.0 | 49.0 | +14.0 |
| 19 | Florida | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 77.0 | 67.0 | +10.0 |
| 20 | Northern Kentucky | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 84.0 | 76.0 | +8.0 |
| 21 | Queens Royals | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 103.0 | 98.0 | +5.0 |
| 22 | Bowling Green | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 76.0 | 73.0 | +3.0 |
| 23 | Grambling St. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 87.0 | +2.0 |
| 24 | Notre Dame | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 74.0 | 72.0 | +2.0 |
| 25 | Cornell | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 86.0 | 85.0 | +1.0 |
| 26 | Pepperdine | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 85.0 | 86.0 | -1.0 |
| 27 | Northern Illinois | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 87.0 | 89.0 | -2.0 |
| 28 | Villanova | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 72.0 | 74.0 | -2.0 |
| 29 | Georgia State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 73.0 | 76.0 | -3.0 |
| 30 | Winthrop | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 98.0 | 103.0 | -5.0 |
| 31 | UTEP | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 76.0 | 84.0 | -8.0 |
| 32 | Miami (FL) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 67.0 | 77.0 | -10.0 |
| 33 | Appalachian State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 49.0 | 63.0 | -14.0 |
| 34 | Liberty | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 57.0 | 72.0 | -15.0 |
| 35 | Oakland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 68.0 | 84.0 | -16.0 |
| 36 | UAB | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 78.0 | 99.0 | -21.0 |
| 37 | UTSA Roadrunners | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 74.0 | 95.0 | -21.0 |
| 38 | UMBC Retrievers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 54.0 | 82.0 | -28.0 |
| 39 | Tennessee State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 64.0 | 94.0 | -30.0 |
| 40 | Carnegie Mellon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 46.0 | 78.0 | -32.0 |
| 41 | Virginia-Lynchburg | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 83.0 | 115.0 | -32.0 |
| 42 | Miami (OH) - Middletown | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 76.0 | 113.0 | -37.0 |
| 43 | Reinhardt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 53.0 | 90.0 | -37.0 |
| 44 | Mount Marty | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 57.0 | 95.0 | -38.0 |
| 45 | Morris College | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 55.0 | 94.0 | -39.0 |
| 46 | Fisk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 73.0 | 117.0 | -44.0 |
| 47 | St. Joseph's (Brooklyn) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 51.0 | 97.0 | -46.0 |
| 48 | St. Francis (ILL) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 47.0 | 96.0 | -49.0 |
| 49 | North American Stallions | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 56.0 | 110.0 | -54.0 |
| 50 | Southeastern Baptist College | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 42.0 | 127.0 | -85.0 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. John's (N.Y.) | 45 | 33 | 78 |
| Monmouth | 29 | 34 | 63 |
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