PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
St. Marys (CA) will host North Dakota St on 4 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the California team as the favourite, rating them 84% to win because they have a 1-0 record and have scored 90.0 points per game while allowing 85.0, whereas North Dakota St also sits at 1-0 but has a higher points-per-game average of 90.0 and a lower points-allowed average of 59.0, giving the model a clear edge for the home side. St. Marys (CA) have played one game in the season, winning 90-85 at home, and their home record is also 1-0 with the same points figures; their last five games include three wins and two losses, with a recent victory over Illinois State 90-85 and losses to Texas A&M 50-63 and Santa Clara 71-76. North Dakota St's single game was a 90-59 win at home, and their last five games feature four wins and one loss, highlighted by a 90-59 win over MN-Crookston and a 70-62 win over North Dakota. In the only head-to-head meeting, St. Marys (CA) beat North Dakota St 78-67, and the Pythia model projects a 78-67 score with a total of 145.1 points, giving St. Marys (CA) an 84% chance to win and a 16% chance for North Dakota St, while the overtime probability is 3%.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (1) | 90.0 | 85.0 | 175.0 | +5.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (1) | 90.0 | 85.0 | 175.0 | +5.0 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 76.1 | 66.2 | 142.3 | +9.9 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 73.4 | 70.0 | 143.4 | +3.4 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 67.5 | 66.0 | 133.5 | +1.5 | 50% |
| vs Similar (5) | 74.4 | 77.2 | 151.6 | -2.8 | 40% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (22) | 77.2 | 64.6 | 141.8 | +12.6 | 91% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (1) | 90.0 | 59.0 | 149.0 | +31.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (1) | 90.0 | 59.0 | 149.0 | +31.0 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 78.7 | 66.6 | 145.3 | +12.1 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 75.4 | 65.6 | 141.0 | +9.8 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ | no games | ||||
| vs Similar (4) | 67.5 | 78.8 | 146.2 | -11.2 | 25% |
| vs Weaker (24) | 80.5 | 69.6 | 150.2 | +10.9 | 88% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.2 | 32.2 | 68.4 | +4.1 | 70% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 38.1 | 31.7 | 69.8 | +6.4 | 76% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 33.8 | 32.8 | 66.5 | +1.0 | 62% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.6 | 33.5 | 69.1 | +2.1 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 33.0 | 36.0 | 69.0 | -3.0 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 33.5 | 35.0 | 68.5 | -1.5 | 50% | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 33.8 | 38.0 | 71.8 | -4.2 | 40% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (22) | 36.9 | 30.9 | 67.7 | +6.0 | 77% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.9 | 32.6 | 71.5 | +6.3 | 70% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 39.4 | 30.5 | 69.9 | +8.9 | 73% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 38.3 | 34.7 | 73.1 | +3.6 | 67% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.2 | 32.5 | 69.7 | +4.7 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.4 | 30.4 | 65.8 | +5.0 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ | no games | |||||
| vs Similar (4) | 29.8 | 42.5 | 72.2 | -12.8 | 0% | - |
| vs Weaker (24) | 39.7 | 31.2 | 70.9 | +8.5 | 79% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/26 | H | Illinois State | 90-85 OT |
| 19/03/26 | H | Texas A&M | 50-63 |
| 10/03/26 | H | Santa Clara | 71-76 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Gonzaga | 70-59 |
| 26/02/26 | H | Santa Clara | 86-67 |
| 22/02/26 | A | Washington State | 83-67 |
| 19/02/26 | A | Seattle | 72-70 |
| 15/02/26 | A | Pacific | 72-61 |
| 12/02/26 | H | Pepperdine | 88-60 |
| 08/02/26 | H | San Francisco | 79-54 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/26 | H | MN-Crookston | 90-59 |
| 19/03/26 | A | Michigan State | 67-92 |
| 09/03/26 | H | North Dakota | 70-62 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Nebraska O. | 74-50 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Oral Roberts | 76-65 |
| 28/02/26 | H | North Dakota | 96-63 |
| 27/02/26 | A | St. Thomas (Minn.) | 62-84 |
| 21/02/26 | H | UMKC | 95-59 |
| 19/02/26 | A | South Dakota St. | 74-66 |
| 14/02/26 | A | North Dakota | 83-66 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | W | 100% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 1 | 1 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 90.0 | 90.0 | - |
| Allowed / game | 85.0 | 85.0 | - |
| Point differential | +5.0 | +5.0 | - |
| Avg total | 175.0 | 175.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | W | 100% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 1 | 1 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 90.0 | 90.0 | - |
| Allowed / game | 59.0 | 59.0 | - |
| Point differential | +31.0 | +31.0 | - |
| Avg total | 149.0 | 149.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pacific | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 102.0 | 47.0 | +55.0 |
| 2 |  Portland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 133.0 | 89.0 | +44.0 |
| 3 |  Oregon State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 102.0 | 61.0 | +41.0 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 70.0 | +19.0 |
| 5 |  San Diego Toreros | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 79.0 | 62.0 | +17.0 |
| 6 |  San Francisco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 76.0 | 62.0 | +14.0 |
| 7 | St. Marys (CA) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 90.0 | 85.0 | +5.0 |
| 8 |  Pepperdine | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 85.0 | 86.0 | -1.0 |
| 9 |  Seattle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 73.0 | 74.0 | -1.0 |
| 10 |  Gonzaga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 72.0 | 78.0 | -6.0 |
| 11 |  Washington State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 61.0 | 76.0 | -15.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Dakota St | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 90.0 | 59.0 | +31.0 |
| 2 |  St. Thomas (Minn.) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 87.0 | 78.0 | +9.0 |
| 3 |  Nebraska O. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 73.0 | 65.0 | +8.0 |
| 4 |  South Dakota St. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 68.0 | 66.0 | +2.0 |
| 5 |  South Dakota Coyotes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 94.5 | 79.5 | +15.0 |
| 6 |  Denver | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 68.0 | 75.0 | -7.0 |
| 7 |  UMKC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 61.0 | 76.0 | -15.0 |
| 8 |  Oral Roberts | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 55.0 | 85.0 | -30.0 |
| 9 |  North Dakota | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 50.0 | 85.0 | -35.0 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Marys (CA) | 45 | 60 | 105 |
| North Dakota St | 26 | 38 | 64 |
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