Stephen F. Austin faces Rice on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Lumberjacks the clear favourite, rating them 96% to win largely because of a 3-0 record, 95.0 points per game and only 54.7 allowed, placing them fifth in the league. Rice, meanwhile, sits at 1-2 with 81.3 points per game and 72.7 allowed, 258th in the standings, and has a 0-1 road record. The Lumberjacks have dominated at home, winning both of their two home games with an average of 104.5 points and 46.5 allowed, and their last five games show four wins and one loss, including a 120-61 rout of Lyon. Rice's road outing was a 73-91 loss to Stanford, and their last five games include two wins and three losses, with a 100-55 victory over Dallas Christian. In their only previous meeting, Stephen F. Austin beat Rice 81-69 on 11 November 2025. Pythia projects a 86-65 score, a total of 150.5, a -12.0 line with an 80% chance of covering, and a 55% chance the total will go over 148.5, with a 1% chance of overtime. The game will likely see the Lumberjacks extend their unbeaten streak.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stephen F. Austin winLost
96.4%fair 1.04
Best odds1.21
Implied81.6%
Edge+14.8pp
Rice winWon
3.6%fair 27.91
Best odds6.25
Implied18.4%
Edge-14.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 20:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Stephen F. Austin) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 142.5Actual: Over 142.5
Over 142.5
68.9%
@ 1.44+3.7pp
Under 142.5
31.1%
@ 2.75-3.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.57
Over/Under 147.5 · main lineActual: Over 147.5
Over 147.5
57.2%
@ 1.88+6.6pp
Under 147.5
42.8%
@ 2.00-6.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.84
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
SBO
1.78
Under
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.98
SBO
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Over/Under 152.5Actual: Over 152.5
Over 152.5
44.9%
@ 2.40+5.5pp
Under 152.5
55.1%
@ 1.53-5.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.30
Under
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
📊 3. Team Totals
Stephen F. Austin total 74Actual: Stephen F. Austin over 74
Over 74
89.3%
Under 74
10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stephen F. Austin total 78 · main linePush
Over 78
79.7%
@ 1.85+29.7pp
Under 78
20.3%
@ 1.85-29.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Stephen F. Austin total 82Actual: Stephen F. Austin under 82
Over 82
66.0%
Under 82
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rice total 65Actual: Rice over 65
Over 65
47.9%
Under 65
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rice total 69 · main lineActual: Rice over 69
Over 69
31.9%
@ 1.85-18.1pp
Under 69
68.1%
@ 1.85+18.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Rice total 73Actual: Rice over 73
Over 73
18.9%
Under 73
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Stephen F. Austin -12.5Actual: Rice +12.5
STEP -12.5
78.3%
@ 2.32+37.0pp
RICE +12.5
21.7%
@ 1.78-37.0pp
Best 5 market prices
STEP
Pinnacle
2.32
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.93
BetVictor
1.88
RICE
SBO
1.78
BetVictor
1.75
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Be
1.69
Pinnacle
1.63
Spread Stephen F. Austin -9.5 · main lineActual: Rice +9.5
STEP -9.5
85.1%
@ 1.92+35.0pp
RICE +9.5
14.9%
@ 2.15-35.0pp
Best 5 market prices
STEP
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.85
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.78
RICE
Bet365
2.15
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Spread Stephen F. Austin -6.5Actual: Rice +6.5
STEP -6.5
90.3%
@ 1.50+26.0pp
RICE +6.5
9.7%
@ 2.80-26.0pp
Best 5 market prices
STEP
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.38
RICE
Bet365
2.80
Betano
2.40
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Stephen F. AustinRice
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Stephen F. Austin) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Stephen F. Austin win
STEP win
no forecast
@ 1.42
RICE win
no forecast
@ 2.87
2nd half Spread Stephen F. Austin -4.5 · main lineActual: Stephen F. Austin -4.5
STEP -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
RICE +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Over/Under 77.5 · main lineActual: Under 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
Stephen F. Austin 2nd half total 40.5 · main lineActual: Stephen F. Austin over 40.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Rice 2nd half total 36.5 · main lineActual: Rice under 36.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half Spread Stephen F. Austin -5.5Actual: Stephen F. Austin -5.5
STEP -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
RICE +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Spread Stephen F. Austin -3.5Actual: Stephen F. Austin -3.5
STEP -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
RICE +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Draw after regulation
STEP
no forecast
@ 1.47
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.50
RICE
no forecast
@ 2.90
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Stephen F. Austin -11
82.6%
1.91
Pinnacle
2.21
Marathon Bet
2.00
1xBet
1.84
SBO
1.78
Bet365
1.74
+39.3pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin -11.5
80.7%
1.96
Pinnacle
2.30
Betano
2.18
Marathon Bet
1.92
Bet365
1.90
1xBet
1.83
+39.1pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin -13
77.7%
2.15
Pinnacle
2.43
Bet365
2.10
Marathon Bet
1.91
-
-
+38.3pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin -10.5
83.0%
1.91
Pinnacle
2.11
Betano
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.95
BetVictor
1.88
1xBet
1.83
+37.5pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin -12
80.2%
2.00
Pinnacle
2.22
Marathon Bet
1.98
1xBet
1.96
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.88
+37.2pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin -10
84.8%
1.85
Pinnacle
2.01
Marathon Bet
1.89
Bet365
1.66
-
-
+37.1pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin -12.5
78.3%
2.04
Pinnacle
2.32
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.93
BetVictor
1.88
+37.0pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin -14.5
72.8%
2.53
Betano
2.70
Bet365
2.35
-
-
-
+35.9pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin -9.5
85.1%
1.81
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Bet
1.85
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.78
+35.0pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin -15
72.0%
2.50
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
-
+34.5pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin -13.5
75.6%
2.31
Betano
2.47
Pinnacle
2.31
Bet365
2.15
-
-
+34.4pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin -9
86.7%
1.75
Pinnacle
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.78
Bet365
1.57
-
+34.1pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin -14
74.9%
2.25
Bet365
2.25
-
-
-
-
+33.8pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin -8.5
87.0%
1.69
1xBet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.72
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.54
+32.2pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin -8
88.5%
1.65
Marathon Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.50
-
+31.6pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin -7.5
88.7%
1.57
Marathon Bet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.45
-
+30.0pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin over 78
79.7%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
-
-
-
+29.7pp
Push
Stephen F. Austin over 77.5
80.3%
1.65
Pinnacle
1.81
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.55
-
-
+28.2pp
Won
Stephen F. Austin over 78.5
77.4%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Bet
1.85
Betano
1.75
-
-
+28.1pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin over 79.5
74.3%
1.91
Pinnacle
2.02
BetVictor
1.95
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.85
+27.6pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin over 79
76.7%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
-
-
-
+27.2pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin -6.5
90.3%
1.44
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+26.0pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin over 80.5
70.9%
1.93
Pinnacle
2.08
Betano
2.07
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
1xBet
1.86
+25.6pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin -7
90.1%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+24.1pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin over 80
73.4%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
+23.9pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin -5.5
91.7%
1.37
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+23.9pp
Lost
Rice under 70.5
72.7%
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Betano
1.65
-
-
+23.2pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin over 76.5
83.0%
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
-
+22.8pp
Won
Stephen F. Austin -6
91.6%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+22.1pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin -4.5
92.9%
1.31
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+22.1pp
Lost
Rice under 70
71.7%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
-
-
-
+21.7pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin (regulation)
95.8%
1.19
Marathon Bet
1.22
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.16
-
-
+21.1pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin over 74.5
87.6%
1.35
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
-
+20.5pp
Won
Stephen F. Austin -5
92.9%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+20.5pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin -2.5
94.9%
1.25
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
-
+20.4pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin -3.5
94.1%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+20.2pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin over 75.5
85.4%
1.40
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+20.1pp
Won
Stephen F. Austin -4
94.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+18.7pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin -1.5
95.9%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+16.4pp
Lost
Rice under 72.5
78.8%
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
-
+16.2pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin over 73.5
89.6%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Won
Rice under 71.5
75.9%
1.52
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+15.1pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin win
96.4%
1.17
Marathon Bet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Betano
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
WilliamHill
1.15
+14.8pp
Lost
Rice under 74.5
84.1%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+14.5pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin over 71.5
92.7%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Won
Rice under 73.5
81.6%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+13.6pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin over 70.5
94.0%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Won
Stephen F. Austin over 69.5
95.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Won
Stephen F. Austin +3.5
97.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
Rice under 75.5
86.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin +4.5
98.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Rice under 77.5
90.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Lost
Stephen F. Austin +8.5
99.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Won
Stephen F. Austin +9.5
99.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Overtime: no
99.1%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.03
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Lost
Rice under 78.5
91.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Lost
Rice under 79.5
93.0%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Lost
Over 141.5
71.1%
1.37
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Over 142
70.4%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Over 141
72.6%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Over 123.5
95.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Over 128.5
91.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Over 140.5
73.2%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Over 138.5
77.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Under 173.5
92.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Over 133.5
85.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Under 168.5
86.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Stephen F. Austin under 99.5
91.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Rice over 51.5
90.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Stephen F. Austin under 97.5
87.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
Rice over 53.5
86.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Under 163.5
79.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Won
Stephen F. Austin under 95.5
83.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Won
Rice over 55.5
81.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.7pp
Won
Stephen F. Austin under 93.5
77.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-10.8pp
Won
Rice over 57.5
75.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-11.2pp
Won
Rice over 58.5
72.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-12.4pp
Won
Stephen F. Austin under 91.5
71.4%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-14.7pp
Won
Free daily update
Get it on Telegram
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which
predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our
Cookie Policy.
Manage Cookies
Strictly Necessary
Always Active
Cookies required to use the site and the features you have asked for. They provide the
pages, predictions and account functions you requested. These are essential for the
operation of our website.
Session and security cookies, your logged-in state, your
subscription status, and the record of this cookie choice itself. These cannot be switched
off because the site cannot be delivered without them.
Functionality Cookies
Cookies that remember the preferences and settings from your last visit, so the site
behaves the way you left it. They do not tell us who you are and they are not used to
build a profile of you.
Your preferred tours and filters, which notices you have dismissed, your
theme choice, and display preferences you have chosen. Kept for up to two years, and you
can clear them from your browser at any time.
These are what "Essential Only" keeps. Choosing "Allow Necessary Cookies
Only" inside this panel switches them off as well.
Performance Cookies
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to
produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics
internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them
our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Which pages and predictions are read, how long pages take to
load, and which features are used, including Google Analytics. Reported in
aggregate, never sold, and not used to identify you personally when you are not signed in.
These are off unless you switch them on here or choose "Accept All".
Third Party Marketing/Targeting
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include
limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the
effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they
will not be adjusted to your interests.
Set by our advertising partners. Switching these off does not
reduce the number of adverts you see; it only makes them less relevant to you.
🔒
A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.