Texas faces Grambling State in an NCAA game on 9 November 2026, with the model designating Texas as the clear favourite, a 99% chance of victory that reflects their 2-0 season record, 103.5 points per game and only 54.5 points allowed, placing them sixth in the league, while Grambling State sits at 1-0 with 89.0 points per game and 87.0 points allowed, ranked 135th. Texas has won both of its games, scoring 103.5 points per game and conceding 54.5, and has a 2-0 home record, winning four of its last five games and recently defeating Gardner Webb 98-50 and Chicago State 109-59, though they lost to Purdue 77-79 away. Grambling State's sole game was a win, 89-87, and they have a 3-2 record in their last five games, with recent victories over Northern Illinois 89-87 and Miss. Valley St. 77-52, and a loss to Jackson State 65-68 away. Pythia projects a 94-63 score, a total of 156.7 points, and a 63% probability that the over on the 151.5 line will hit, with no chance of overtime. The game ends with Texas's dominant performance and a decisive 94-63 outcome.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Texas winWon
99.2%fair 1.01
Best odds1.01
Implied94.7%
Edge+4.6pp
Grambling St. winLost
0.8%fair 133.12
Best odds100.00
Implied5.3%
Edge-4.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Texas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146.5Actual: Over 146.5
Over 146.5
73.8%
@ 1.45+9.0pp
Under 146.5
26.2%
@ 2.75-9.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.52
Over/Under 151.5 · main lineActual: Over 151.5
Over 151.5
62.8%
@ 1.85+10.8pp
Under 151.5
37.2%
@ 2.00-10.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.77
Bet365
1.74
WilliamHill
1.73
Under
WilliamHill
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.93
Marathon Be
1.92
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 156.5Actual: Under 156.5
Over 156.5
50.6%
@ 2.40+11.9pp
Under 156.5
49.4%
@ 1.52-11.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.40
Under
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Texas total 89.5Actual: Texas over 89.5
Over 89.5
66.3%
@ 1.47+2.5pp
Under 89.5
33.7%
@ 2.72-2.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.72
Betano
2.35
Texas total 93.5 · main lineActual: Texas under 93.5
Over 93.5
50.6%
@ 1.83-0.7pp
Under 93.5
49.4%
@ 1.91+0.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.83
Texas total 97.5Actual: Texas under 97.5
Over 97.5
34.8%
@ 2.55-1.5pp
Under 97.5
65.2%
@ 1.47+1.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.42
Grambling St. total 54Actual: Grambling St. over 54
Over 54
82.8%
Under 54
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grambling St. total 58 · main lineActual: Grambling St. over 58
Over 58
70.2%
@ 1.85+19.9pp
Under 58
29.8%
@ 1.87-19.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Grambling St. total 62Push
Over 62
54.4%
Under 62
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Texas -38.5Actual: Grambling St. +38.5
TEXA -38.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
GRAM +38.5
no forecast
@ 1.69
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.20
GRAM
Marathon Be
1.69
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.55
Spread Texas -35.5 · main lineActual: Grambling St. +35.5
TEXA -35.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
GRAM +35.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.80
1xBet
1.73
GRAM
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.83
Spread Texas -32.5Actual: Grambling St. +32.5
TEXA -32.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
GRAM +32.5
no forecast
@ 2.20
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.60
GRAM
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.02
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
TexasGrambling St.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Grambling St. over 57
73.7%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
-
+23.2pp
Won
Grambling St. over 57.5
71.3%
1.82
Pinnacle
1.93
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
+22.5pp
Won
Grambling St. over 56.5
74.6%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
+22.2pp
Won
Grambling St. over 58
70.2%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+19.9pp
Won
Grambling St. over 54.5
80.6%
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+15.3pp
Won
Grambling St. over 55.5
77.7%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+14.9pp
Won
Grambling St. over 53.5
83.2%
1.31
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+13.5pp
Won
Grambling St. over 52.5
85.6%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Won
Over 144
79.2%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Over 147.5
71.8%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Won
Over 146.5
73.8%
1.42
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
Grambling St. over 51.5
87.8%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
Over 148
71.2%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Over 147
73.3%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
Over 145.5
75.8%
1.37
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Won
Over 143.5
79.6%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
Over 144.5
77.7%
1.33
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Won
Over 146
75.3%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Texas (regulation)
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Over 145
77.3%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Over 141.5
82.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Over 142.5
81.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Texas over 74.5
97.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Over 131.5
94.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Texas win
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Texas over 77.5
94.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Texas over 75.5
96.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Over 126.5
97.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Over 136.5
89.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Texas over 73.5
97.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Over 132.5
93.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Over 127.5
96.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Texas over 87.5
73.3%
1.31
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Texas over 79.5
92.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Texas over 76.5
95.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Over 137.5
88.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Texas under 101.5
78.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Texas over 78.5
93.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Texas under 99.5
72.3%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Texas under 102.5
81.4%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Texas over 83.5
84.7%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Texas over 81.5
89.0%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Texas over 80.5
90.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Texas over 85.5
79.5%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Texas under 100.5
75.6%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Texas over 82.5
87.0%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Texas over 84.5
82.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Texas over 86.5
76.5%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Texas -15.5
90.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Under 177.5
90.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Under 176.5
89.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Under 172.5
83.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.9pp
Won
Grambling St. under 73.5
85.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.9pp
Won
Under 171.5
82.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.5pp
Won
Texas -20.5
81.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-7.5pp
Won
Grambling St. under 72.5
82.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.3pp
Won
Under 167.5
74.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-10.1pp
Won
Grambling St. under 71.5
80.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-10.2pp
Won
Under 166.5
72.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-12.6pp
Won
Grambling St. under 70.5
77.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-12.9pp
Won
Grambling St. under 69.5
74.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-14.1pp
Won
Grambling St. under 68.5
70.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-16.7pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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