Tokomanawa Queens W host Mid-North Whai W on 15 November 2026 in the Tauihi Women, and the Pythia model names the Queens the favourite with a 77% chance of victory, reflecting their 2-6 season record and 82.8 points per game compared with the Whai's 3-6 record and 73.4 points per game. The Queens have struggled at home, going 0-4 with 76.5 points per game and 88.8 allowed, yet they have managed two wins in their last five games, including a 97-65 triumph over the Whai on 8 November. The Whai, meanwhile, have gone 2-3 on the road, averaging 76.2 points and conceding 84.4, but have lost their last five outings, including a 66-101 defeat to Southern Hoiho W. In their ten previous meetings the Queens have won six times, most recently beating the Whai 97-65. Pythia projects a 85-77 score for the Queens, with a 41% chance of covering the home line of -11.0, and a 4% probability of overtime. The projected total of 162.1 points sits just above the over line, giving the model a modest over probability. The next game will see the Queens try to turn their home woes into a decisive win.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (8) | 82.8 | 83.5 | 166.2 | -0.8 | 25% |
| Season at home (4) | 76.5 | 88.8 | 165.2 | -12.2 | 0% |
| Season away (4) | 89.0 | 78.2 | 167.2 | +10.8 | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 82.6 | 82.2 | 164.8 | +0.4 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 87.0 | 79.0 | 166.0 | +8.0 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (8) | 79.2 | 87.9 | 167.1 | -8.6 | 25% |
| vs Similar (13) | 80.0 | 81.7 | 161.7 | -1.7 | 46% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (9) | 85.3 | 76.6 | 161.9 | +8.8 | 67% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (9) | 73.4 | 81.8 | 155.2 | -8.3 | 33% |
| Season at home (4) | 70.0 | 78.5 | 148.5 | -8.5 | 25% |
| Season away (5) | 76.2 | 84.4 | 160.6 | -8.2 | 40% |
| Last 10 (10) | 75.4 | 80.2 | 155.6 | -4.8 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 71.0 | 90.4 | 161.4 | -19.4 | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (7) | 70.9 | 84.4 | 155.3 | -13.6 | 29% |
| vs Similar (15) | 82.9 | 76.7 | 159.6 | +6.1 | 67% |
| vs Weaker (8) | 86.4 | 70.9 | 157.2 | +15.5 | 75% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 79.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 41.9 | 40.3 | 82.2 | +1.6 | 53% | 60% |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 42.1 | 40.1 | 82.2 | +2.1 | 57% | 57% |
| Last 30 away (16) | 41.7 | 40.6 | 82.2 | +1.1 | 50% | 62% |
| Last 10 (10) | 44.0 | 39.3 | 83.3 | +4.7 | 50% | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 45.4 | 35.6 | 81.0 | +9.8 | 60% | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (8) | 37.0 | 44.6 | 81.6 | -7.6 | 25% | 75% |
| vs Similar (13) | 42.1 | 40.2 | 82.2 | +1.9 | 62% | 38% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (9) | 46.0 | 36.8 | 82.8 | +9.2 | 67% | 78% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 79.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 41.0 | 39.2 | 80.2 | +1.8 | 53% | 53% |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 38.8 | 38.5 | 77.3 | +0.2 | 54% | 46% |
| Last 30 away (17) | 42.7 | 39.6 | 82.4 | +3.1 | 53% | 59% |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.2 | 39.9 | 76.1 | -3.7 | 40% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.6 | 45.6 | 81.2 | -10.0 | 20% | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (7) | 35.3 | 43.9 | 79.1 | -8.6 | 14% | 57% |
| vs Similar (15) | 40.7 | 39.0 | 79.7 | +1.7 | 60% | 47% |
| vs Weaker (8) | 46.5 | 35.4 | 81.9 | +11.1 | 75% | 62% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-North Whai W +15 | 72.6% | 2.09 | 2.09 | - | - | - | - | +28.2pp | Lost |
| Mid-North Whai W +14.5 | 70.4% | 1.94 | 2.17 | 2.05 | 1.91 | 1.89 | 1.84 | +27.7pp | Lost |
| Mid-North Whai W +16 | 75.5% | 1.93 | 1.93 | - | - | - | - | +27.2pp | Lost |
| Mid-North Whai W +15.5 | 73.4% | 1.88 | 2.01 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.80 | 1.78 | +27.1pp | Lost |
| Mid-North Whai W +17 | 78.2% | 1.78 | 1.78 | - | - | - | - | +25.8pp | Lost |
| Mid-North Whai W +16.5 | 76.2% | 1.78 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.64 | +25.8pp | Lost |
| Mid-North Whai W +18 | 80.7% | 1.65 | 1.65 | - | - | - | - | +24.5pp | Lost |
| Mid-North Whai W +17.5 | 78.8% | 1.66 | 1.73 | 1.71 | 1.54 | - | - | +24.4pp | Lost |
| Mid-North Whai W +19 | 83.0% | 1.56 | 1.56 | - | - | - | - | +23.5pp | Lost |
| Mid-North Whai W +21.5 | 87.2% | 1.45 | 1.45 | - | - | - | - | +23.4pp | Lost |
| Mid-North Whai W +18.5 | 81.2% | 1.57 | 1.65 | 1.60 | 1.46 | - | - | +23.1pp | Lost |
| Mid-North Whai W +19.5 | 83.4% | 1.48 | 1.58 | 1.38 | - | - | - | +21.9pp | Lost |
| Mid-North Whai W +20.5 | 85.4% | 1.41 | 1.50 | 1.31 | - | - | - | +20.7pp | Lost |
| Tokomanawa Queens W under 91.5 | 73.1% | 1.48 | 1.48 | - | - | - | - | +14.5pp | Won |
| Tokomanawa Queens W under 92.5 | 76.3% | 1.41 | 1.41 | - | - | - | - | +14.3pp | Won |
| Tokomanawa Queens W under 93.5 | 79.3% | 1.35 | 1.35 | - | - | - | - | +14.2pp | Won |
| Tokomanawa Queens W under 94.5 | 82.0% | 1.30 | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | +13.8pp | Won |
| Mid-North Whai W over 70.5 | 72.7% | 1.45 | 1.45 | - | - | - | - | +12.7pp | Lost |
| Mid-North Whai W over 69.5 | 75.9% | 1.38 | 1.38 | - | - | - | - | +12.5pp | Lost |
| Mid-North Whai W over 68.5 | 78.9% | 1.32 | 1.32 | - | - | - | - | +12.1pp | Lost |
| Mid-North Whai W over 67.5 | 81.6% | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | +11.6pp | Lost |
| Overtime: no | 96.0% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +3.5pp | Won |
| Tokomanawa Queens W (regulation) | 75.1% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -7.9pp | Won |
| Tokomanawa Queens W win | 77.4% | 1.08 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.09 | 1.08 | 1.07 | -8.3pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 45.5 | 22.4 | 50.4% | 44.8 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 23.3 | 7.4 | 31.7% | 22.2 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 15.9 | 11.9 | 73.0% | 11.9 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 38.8 | 18.6 | 50.4% | 37.2 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 26.7 | 9.6 | 31.7% | 28.8 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 18.3 | 13.8 | 73.0% | 13.8 |
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 08/11/26 | Mid-North Whai W v Tokomanawa Queens W | 65-97 |
| 16/10/26 | Tokomanawa Queens W v Mid-North Whai W | 79-84 |
| 06/12/25 | Tokomanawa Queens W v Mid-North Whai W | 76-82 |
| 23/11/25 | Tokomanawa Queens W v Mid-North Whai W | 88-82 |
| 01/11/25 | Mid-North Whai W v Tokomanawa Queens W | 70-80 |
| 27/09/25 | Mid-North Whai W v Tokomanawa Queens W | 78-84 |
| 22/12/24 | Mid-North Whai W v Tokomanawa Queens W | 90-71 |
| 30/11/24 | Tokomanawa Queens W v Mid-North Whai W | 63-97 |
| 26/10/24 | Mid-North Whai W v Tokomanawa Queens W | 73-85 |
| 18/10/24 | Tokomanawa Queens W v Mid-North Whai W | 92-90 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | A | Northern Kahu W | 88-71 |
| 08/11/26 | A | Mid-North Whai W | 97-65 |
| 01/11/26 | H | Southern Hoiho W | 81-82 |
| 23/10/26 | A | Mainland Pouakai W | 90-93 |
| 16/10/26 | H | Mid-North Whai W | 79-84 |
| 11/10/26 | A | Southern Hoiho W | 81-84 |
| 04/10/26 | H | Mainland Pouakai W | 77-114 |
| 27/09/26 | H | Northern Kahu W | 69-75 |
| 06/12/25 | H | Mid-North Whai W | 76-82 |
| 30/11/25 | A | Northern Kahu W | 88-72 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/26 | A | Southern Hoiho W | 66-101 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Tokomanawa Queens W | 65-97 |
| 31/10/26 | H | Mainland Pouakai W | 75-90 |
| 24/10/26 | A | Southern Hoiho W | 65-79 |
| 18/10/26 | A | Northern Kahu W | 84-85 |
| 16/10/26 | A | Tokomanawa Queens W | 84-79 |
| 09/10/26 | A | Mainland Pouakai W | 82-78 |
| 02/10/26 | H | Southern Hoiho W | 59-67 |
| 25/09/26 | H | Northern Kahu W | 81-60 |
| 14/12/25 | A | Mainland Pouakai W | 93-66 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLWW | 25% |
| Home | LLLL | 0% |
| Away | LLWW | 50% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| Win % | 25% | 0% | 50% |
| Points / game | 82.8 | 76.5 | 89.0 |
| Allowed / game | 83.5 | 88.8 | 78.2 |
| Point differential | -0.8 | -12.2 | +10.8 |
| Avg total | 166.2 | 165.2 | 167.2 |
| Over 162.5 | 62% | 75% | 50% |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 0% | 50% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (4) | 0% (2) | 0% (2) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLLL | 33% |
| Home | WLLL | 25% |
| Away | WWLLL | 40% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 4 | 5 |
| Win % | 33% | 25% | 40% |
| Points / game | 73.4 | 70.0 | 76.2 |
| Allowed / game | 81.8 | 78.5 | 84.4 |
| Point differential | -8.3 | -8.5 | -8.2 |
| Avg total | 155.2 | 148.5 | 160.6 |
| Over 162.5 | 44% | 25% | 60% |
| Win by 10+ | 11% | 25% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 67% (3) | - | 67% (3) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southern Hoiho W | 10 | 8 | 2 | 80% | 82.2 | 74.9 | +7.3 |
| 2 | Mainland Pouakai W | 10 | 7 | 3 | 70% | 88.7 | 82.1 | +6.6 |
| 3 | Northern Kahu W | 9 | 3 | 6 | 33% | 75.3 | 81.8 | -6.4 |
| 4 | Mid-North Whai W | 9 | 3 | 6 | 33% | 73.4 | 81.8 | -8.3 |
| 5 | Tokomanawa Queens W | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25% | 82.8 | 83.5 | -0.8 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokomanawa Queens W | 24 | 22 | 24 | 18 | 88 |
| Mid-North Whai W | 11 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 66 |
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