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Trier vs Chemnitz Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 21 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 19:00
Projected 93-83
Projected total 176.5
Scheduled
Position#2
Record6-1
FormWWWWW
Points / game98.4
Allowed / game86.1
Trier
Germany
Vs
78%
22%
■ TRI 78%■ CHE 22%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
6.3/10
Above normal
5.6/10
Above normal
Chemnitz
Germany
Position#16
Record2-6
FormWWLLL
Points / game87.1
Allowed / game90.0
GermanyBBLRound 10· Arena Trier
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Trier v Chemnitz
21 Nov 2026
TRI v CHE
upcoming
15 Feb 2026
TRI100
CHE105
06 Oct 2019
TRI97
CHE92
14 Oct 2018
TRI72
CHE82
10 Mar 2018
TRI81
CHE74
15 Apr 2017
TRI74
CHE57
09 Apr 2017
TRI64
CHE48
03 Feb 2017
TRI71
CHE58
16 Jan 2016
TRI91
CHE84
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Trier host Chemnitz in the BBL. Pythia makes Trier the favourite at 78% and projects 93-83, about 177 points in all. Overtime chance: 4%. Trier are 6-1 this season (98.4 scored, 86.1 allowed a game), form WWWWW; Chemnitz are 2-6 this season (87.1 scored, 90.0 allowed a game), form WWLLL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Trier win
77.6%fair 1.29
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Chemnitz win
22.4%fair 4.46
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 20:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TrierGermanyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTrier
Date
Competition
Ludwigsburg
#7
W
94-80
94
80
+14
88avg 85
A04/10
BBL
Batumi
#50
W
92-59
92
59
+33
90avg 85
H07/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Alba Berlin
#8
W
95-75
95
75
+20
98avg 85
H10/10
BBL
Promitheas
#14
W
87-83
87
83
+4
86avg 85
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Split
#20
W
100-80
100
80
+20
100avg 85
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Vechta
#13
W
97-88
97
88
+9
89avg 85
A24/10
BBL
Opava
#44
W
103-80
103
80
+23
99avg 85
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Trepca
#29
W
96-59
96
59
+37
no box
H04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Bamberg
#10
W
92-79
92
79
+13
no box
H07/11
BBL
Batumi
#50
W
122-57
122
57
+65
no box
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-13
18-14
23-33
24-20
18-16
31-14
28-13
15-16
31-24
19-23
26-15
19-13
25-19
24-22
24-29
14-13
22-32
31-10
26-16
21-22
22-23
21-12
22-27
32-26
26-17
22-15
28-20
27-28
23-11
27-14
21-15
25-19
26-18
21-17
16-18
29-26
31-15
30-14
33-11
28-17
171.8Avg total
97.8Scored
74.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)98.486.1184.6+12.386%
Season at home (4)97.879.8177.5+18.0100%
Season away (3)99.394.7194.0+4.767%
Last 10 (10)97.874.0171.8+23.8100%
Last 5 (5)102.072.6174.6+29.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)81.598.8180.3-17.418%
vs Similar (6)91.789.2180.8+2.567%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)99.278.5177.7+20.692%
This opponent (Chemnitz) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ChemnitzGermanyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormChemnitz
Date
Competition
Neptunas
#26
W
93-84
93
84
+9
88avg 74
H07/10
Eurocup
Bayern
#1
L
83-87
83
87
-4
77avg 74
H10/10
BBL
Trento
#27
W
88-80
88
80
+8
75avg 74
A13/10
Eurocup
Slask Wroclaw
#31
W
95-67
95
67
+28
88avg 74
H21/10
Eurocup
Wurzburg
#9
L
88-98
88
98
-10
87avg 74
A26/10
BBL
JL Bourg
#24
W
96-77
96
77
+19
92avg 74
H28/10
Eurocup
Ludwigsburg
#7
W
94-78
94
78
+16
no box
H31/10
BBL
Buducnost
#10
L
84-96
84
96
-12
no box
A03/11
Eurocup
Vechta
#13
L
90-99
90
99
-9
no box
A07/11
BBL
Basket Napoli
#2
L
90-112
90
112
-22
no box
H11/11
Eurocup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-15
26-24
18-27
18-18
25-21
25-24
12-22
21-20
19-17
18-17
18-24
33-22
20-21
26-19
24-20
25-7
17-27
25-23
15-27
31-21
25-19
21-13
29-17
21-28
18-23
25-25
24-10
27-20
22-23
22-26
22-24
18-23
24-27
26-18
14-33
26-21
22-24
19-35
28-20
21-33
177.9Avg total
90.1Scored
87.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)87.190.0177.1-2.925%
Season at home (3)90.386.0176.3+4.367%
Season away (5)85.292.4177.6-7.20%
Last 10 (10)90.187.8177.9+2.350%
Last 5 (5)90.892.4183.2-1.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)76.583.5160.0-7.030%
vs Similar (10)84.287.1171.3-2.930%
vs Weaker (10)89.785.0174.7+4.770%
This opponent (Trier) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%0%1301%1351%1403%1454%1506%1558%16010%16511%17012%17511%18010%1858%1906%1954%2002%2051%2101%2150%2200%225
1%1353%1456%15510%16512%17510%1856%1952%2051%2150%225
Pythia expects about 177 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 175-179 (12%).
Over/Under 164
Over 164
77.2%
Under 164
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 169
Over 169
67.0%
Under 169
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 174
Over 174
55.4%
Under 174
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Trier total 82.5
Over 82.5
83.7%
Under 82.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trier total 86.5
Over 86.5
73.0%
Under 86.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trier total 90.5
Over 90.5
59.4%
Under 90.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chemnitz total 78
Over 78
69.6%
Under 78
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chemnitz total 82
Over 82
54.9%
Under 82
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chemnitz total 86
Over 86
39.8%
Under 86
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%10%0%-241%-211%-182%-153%-124%-96%-66%-35%+09%+310%+610%+99%+129%+157%+186%+214%+243%+272%+301%+331%+361%+39
1%-212%-154%-96%-39%+310%+99%+156%+213%+271%+331%+39
Margin from Trier's side (positive = Trier win). Pythia's expected margin is +9.5; Trier win by 1+ in 72% of simulations.
Spread Trier -3
TRI -3
71.6%
CHE +3
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
TRI
No market prices yet.
CHE
No market prices yet.
Spread Trier 0
TRI 0
77.6%
CHE 0
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
TRI
No market prices yet.
CHE
No market prices yet.
Spread Trier +3
TRI +3
83.3%
CHE -3
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
TRI
No market prices yet.
CHE
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-11-6+0+6+11Q1Q1: +6.5+6.5Q1: +0.6+0.6Q2Q2: +8.9+8.9Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: +5.0+5.0Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: +3.4+3.4Q4: +2.8+2.8
-11-6+0+6+11Q1Q1: +6.5+6.5Q1: +0.6+0.6Q2Q2: +8.9+8.9Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: +5.0+5.0Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: +3.4+3.4Q4: +2.8+2.8
TrierChemnitz
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
TrierLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ludwigsburg
#7
W
47-27
47
27
+20
A04/10
BBL
Batumi
#50
W
49-30
49
30
+19
H07/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Alba Berlin
#8
W
50-47
50
47
+3
H10/10
BBL
Promitheas
#14
W
49-41
49
41
+8
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Split
#20
W
53-42
53
42
+11
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Vechta
#13
W
43-35
43
35
+8
A24/10
BBL
Opava
#44
W
48-32
48
32
+16
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Trepca
#29
W
50-25
50
25
+25
H04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Bamberg
#10
W
47-35
47
35
+12
H07/11
BBL
Batumi
#50
W
61-29
61
29
+32
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
84.0Avg total
49.7Scored
34.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.443.589.8+2.957%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.941.588.4+5.373%-
Last 30 away (15)45.945.491.3+0.540%-
Last 10 (10)49.734.384.0+15.4100%-
Last 5 (5)49.831.281.0+18.6100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)41.649.791.4-8.127%-
vs Similar (6)44.843.588.3+1.333%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)51.138.289.2+12.992%-
This opponent (Chemnitz) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ChemnitzLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Neptunas
#26
W
57-39
57
39
+18
H07/10
Eurocup
Bayern
#1
W
50-45
50
45
+5
H10/10
BBL
Trento
#27
W
37-34
37
34
+3
A13/10
Eurocup
Slask Wroclaw
#31
W
46-40
46
40
+6
H21/10
Eurocup
Wurzburg
#9
L
42-50
42
50
-8
A26/10
BBL
JL Bourg
#24
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H28/10
Eurocup
Ludwigsburg
#7
L
43-48
43
48
-5
H31/10
BBL
Buducnost
#10
L
44-49
44
49
-5
A03/11
Eurocup
Vechta
#13
W
50-45
50
45
+5
A07/11
BBL
Basket Napoli
#2
L
41-59
41
59
-18
H11/11
Eurocup
89.7Avg total
45.6Scored
44.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.541.584.0+1.150%-
Last 30 at home (14)44.939.784.6+5.264%-
Last 30 away (16)40.443.083.4-2.638%-
Last 10 (10)45.644.189.7+1.560%-
Last 5 (5)44.846.691.4-1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)41.343.084.3-1.740%-
vs Similar (10)43.741.585.2+2.250%-
vs Weaker (10)42.639.982.5+2.760%-
This opponent (Trier) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Triertheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Trier: 97.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.2 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.8 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.4 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.4 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.424.1
61.2%
55.6%48.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.011.6
37.4%
33.7%34.8
🏀 Free throws18.814.4
76.6%
73.4%14.4
They take 70.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Chemnitztheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Chemnitz: 87.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.9 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.4 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.321.8
55.5%
55.6%43.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.09.5
31.7%
33.7%28.5
🏀 Free throws19.314.9
77.2%
73.4%14.9
They take 69.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Trier
WWWWWWWWWW
Chemnitz
LLLWWLWWLW
#2
League position
#16
+17.6
Net rating
+4.0
106.0
Offensive rating
94.5
88.4
Defensive rating
90.5
58.9%
Effective FG%
52.0%
51.6%
Opp. effective FG%
52.3%
15.1%
Turnover %
16.6%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.28
37.4%
3-point %
31.7%
66.4%
Assist %
60.4%
100%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence106.0 · 94.5Defence88.4 · 90.5Shooting58.9% · 52.0%3-point %37.4% · 31.7%Ball care15.1% · 16.6%Free throws0.27 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)100% · 50%
■ Trier   ■ Chemnitz
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Trier wins
7
Chemnitz wins
DateGameScore
15/02/26Trier v Chemnitz100-105
30/12/25Chemnitz v Trier96-84
14/01/20Chemnitz v Trier99-92
06/10/19Trier v Chemnitz97-92
11/01/19Chemnitz v Trier89-81
14/10/18Trier v Chemnitz72-82
10/03/18Trier v Chemnitz81-74
28/10/17Chemnitz v Trier77-65
17/04/17Chemnitz v Trier75-67
15/04/17Trier v Chemnitz74-57
Trierlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26ABatumi122-57
07/11/26HBamberg92-79
04/11/26HTrepca96-59
28/10/26AOpava103-80
24/10/26AVechta97-88
21/10/26HSplit100-80
14/10/26APromitheas87-83
10/10/26HAlba Berlin95-75
07/10/26HBatumi92-59
04/10/26ALudwigsburg94-80
Chemnitzlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HBasket Napoli90-112
07/11/26AVechta90-99
03/11/26ABuducnost84-96
31/10/26HLudwigsburg94-78
28/10/26HJL Bourg96-77
26/10/26AWurzburg88-98
21/10/26HSlask Wroclaw95-67
13/10/26ATrento88-80
10/10/26HBayern83-87
07/10/26HNeptunas93-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Trier
BBL 2026-27
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW86%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %86%100%67%
Points / game98.497.899.3
Allowed / game86.179.894.7
Point differential+12.3+18.0+4.7
Avg total184.6177.5194.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+71%100%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Chemnitz
BBL 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL25%
HomeWLW67%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games835
Win %25%67%0%
Points / game87.190.385.2
Allowed / game90.086.092.4
Point differential-2.9+4.3-7.2
Avg total177.1176.3177.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %25%33%20%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bayern87188%96.070.1+25.9
2 Trier76186%98.486.1+12.3
3 Syntainics MBC86275%86.680.1+6.5
4 Bonn96367%87.781.2+6.4
5 Frankfurt64267%87.383.3+4.0
6 Rostock85362%89.882.4+7.4
7 Ludwigsburg95456%86.185.2+0.9
8 Alba Berlin95456%87.286.6+0.7
9 Wurzburg84450%81.883.2-1.5
10 Bamberg94544%85.185.7-0.6
11 Ulm94544%84.185.4-1.3
12 Oldenburg94544%74.783.4-8.8
13 Vechta83538%86.290.8-4.5
14 Basketball Braunschweig83538%86.096.5-10.5
15 Hamburg93633%83.390.8-7.4
16 Chemnitz82625%87.190.0-2.9
17 Phoenix Hagen92722%83.492.0-8.6
18 Jena92722%77.989.6-11.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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