PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
On 17 November 2026 the NCAA contest pits Troy against CS Northridge, with the model designating Troy as the clear favourite because it has a higher win probability of 81% versus 19% for CS Northridge. Troy's season record stands at 1-2, averaging 67.3 points scored and conceding 77.0, while CS Northridge is 0-2, scoring 72.5 and allowing 87.0; Troy's single home win and single home loss give a 1-1 home record with 67.0 points for and 70.0 against, and their last five games show two wins and three losses, including a 74-69 victory over Loyola Marymount at home on 10 November and a 60-71 loss to UMass at home on 2 November. CS Northridge's road record is 0-2, with 72.5 points for and 87.0 against, and their last five games include one win and four losses, notably a 78-95 defeat to Kansas State on 6 November. The teams have met once before, with CS Northridge winning 94-85 on 16 November 2025. Pythia projects a final score of 82-72, with Troy projected to score 82 points and CS Northridge 72, for a total of 154.8 points; the model also estimates a 4% chance of overtime. The game's outcome will hinge on whether Troy can maintain its offensive output while limiting CS Northridge's scoring, a challenge underscored by the recent loss to Wichita State.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 67.3 | 77.0 | 144.3 | -9.7 | 33% |
| Season at home (2) | 67.0 | 70.0 | 137.0 | -3.0 | 50% |
| Season away (1) | 68.0 | 91.0 | 159.0 | -23.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 69.3 | 70.3 | 139.6 | -1.0 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 65.2 | 73.6 | 138.8 | -8.4 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (4) | 65.0 | 71.2 | 136.2 | -6.2 | 50% |
| vs Similar (11) | 71.3 | 73.5 | 144.7 | -2.2 | 45% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (15) | 80.3 | 68.7 | 148.9 | +11.6 | 80% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 72.5 | 87.0 | 159.5 | -14.5 | 0% |
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away (2) | 72.5 | 87.0 | 159.5 | -14.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 78.0 | 83.3 | 161.3 | -5.3 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 76.0 | 85.4 | 161.4 | -9.4 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (7) | 73.3 | 81.3 | 154.6 | -8.0 | 14% |
| vs Similar (12) | 79.4 | 80.1 | 159.5 | -0.7 | 58% |
| vs Weaker (11) | 88.3 | 79.5 | 167.8 | +8.7 | 82% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.4 | 32.1 | 66.5 | +2.4 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 35.8 | 29.4 | 65.1 | +6.4 | 76% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 32.7 | 35.6 | 68.3 | -2.9 | 15% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 31.2 | 32.8 | 64.0 | -1.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 29.2 | 35.6 | 64.8 | -6.4 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (4) | 29.2 | 36.2 | 65.5 | -7.0 | 25% | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 33.0 | 34.5 | 67.5 | -1.5 | 45% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (15) | 36.9 | 29.2 | 66.1 | +7.7 | 60% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.4 | 36.7 | 75.1 | +1.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 39.9 | 34.6 | 74.5 | +5.2 | 64% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 37.2 | 38.4 | 75.6 | -1.2 | 56% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 34.4 | 40.2 | 74.6 | -5.8 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 34.8 | 45.6 | 80.4 | -10.8 | 0% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (7) | 35.0 | 42.0 | 77.0 | -7.0 | 29% | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 36.2 | 34.3 | 70.5 | +1.8 | 58% | - |
| vs Weaker (11) | 43.1 | 35.8 | 78.9 | +7.3 | 82% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | H | Loyola Marymount | 74-69 OT |
| 07/11/26 | A | Florida State | 68-91 |
| 03/11/26 | H | UMass | 60-71 |
| 19/03/26 | A | Nebraska | 47-76 |
| 09/03/26 | H | Georgia Southern | 77-61 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Southern Miss | 78-70 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Louisiana Monroe | 80-65 |
| 25/02/26 | H | Louisiana Lafayette | 78-59 |
| 21/02/26 | A | South Alabama | 54-65 |
| 19/02/26 | A | Louisiana Monroe | 77-76 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/26 | A | Kansas State | 78-95 |
| 05/11/26 | A | Wichita State | 67-79 |
| 14/03/26 | A | UC Irvine | 78-93 |
| 13/03/26 | H | UC San Diego | 80-70 |
| 08/03/26 | H | CS Fullerton | 77-90 |
| 06/03/26 | A | CSU Bakersfield | 86-84 |
| 01/03/26 | A | UC Riverside | 84-95 |
| 27/02/26 | H | UC Irvine | 67-68 |
| 22/02/26 | A | Long Beach State | 78-76 |
| 20/02/26 | A | UC Santa Barbara | 85-83 OT |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLW | 33% |
| Home | LW | 50% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Points / game | 67.3 | 67.0 | 68.0 |
| Allowed / game | 77.0 | 70.0 | 91.0 |
| Point differential | -9.7 | -3.0 | -23.0 |
| Avg total | 144.3 | 137.0 | 159.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LL | 0% |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | - | 2 |
| Win % | 0% | - | 0% |
| Points / game | 72.5 | - | 72.5 |
| Allowed / game | 87.0 | - | 87.0 |
| Point differential | -14.5 | - | -14.5 |
| Avg total | 159.5 | - | 159.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | - | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | - | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Texas State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.3 | 62.0 | +29.3 |
| 2 |  Old Dominion | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 76.2 | 54.5 | +21.8 |
| 3 |  Southern Miss | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 74.3 | 66.0 | +8.3 |
| 4 |  Appalachian State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.0 | 60.3 | +9.7 |
| 5 |  Marshall | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 80.7 | 76.7 | +4.0 |
| 6 |  Louisiana Lafayette | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 59.0 | 60.3 | -1.3 |
| 7 |  Georgia Southern | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 80.3 | 82.3 | -2.0 |
| 8 |  James Madison | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 78.7 | -2.7 |
| 9 |  South Alabama | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.3 | 80.7 | -4.3 |
| 10 | Troy | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 67.3 | 77.0 | -9.7 |
| 11 |  Arkansas State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 74.0 | 84.3 | -10.3 |
| 12 |  Coastal Carolina | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 62.3 | 80.0 | -17.7 |
| 13 |  Georgia State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 85.8 | 77.2 | +8.5 |
| 14 |  Louisiana Monroe | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 84.0 | 86.5 | -2.5 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UC Riverside | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 87.0 | 53.5 | +33.5 |
| 2 |  UC Irvine | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 61.7 | +29.3 |
| 3 |  CSU Bakersfield | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 92.0 | 67.0 | +25.0 |
| 4 |  UC Santa Barbara | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.7 | 61.7 | +22.0 |
| 5 |  UC San Diego | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 90.5 | 70.0 | +20.5 |
| 6 |  Hawaii | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 81.8 | 63.0 | +18.8 |
| 7 |  UC Davis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 73.7 | 66.7 | +7.0 |
| 8 |  CS Fullerton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 82.5 | 93.5 | -11.0 |
| 9 |  Long Beach State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 65.0 | 69.3 | -4.3 |
| 10 |  Cal Poly | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.7 | 88.3 | -10.7 |
| 11 | CS Northridge | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 72.5 | 87.0 | -14.5 |
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