PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
UC San Diego will host Texas Southern on 16 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model rates UC San Diego as the clear favourite with a 97% chance of winning, driven by their undefeated 2-0 season record, 90.5 points scored per game and only 70.0 points allowed, placing them 65th in the league, while Texas Southern sits 306th with a 1-2 record, 76.0 points per game and 91.0 points allowed. UC San Diego has won both home games, averaging 90.5 points and conceding 70.0, and has won four of its last five games, including a 100-75 win over Whittier and an 81-65 victory over Fresno State, whereas Texas Southern has lost both road games, averaging 65.0 points and allowing 97.5, and has only one win in its last five, a 98-78 home win over CBS Ambassadors. The teams have not met before. Pythia projects a 87-64 score, 151.6 total points, a 97% probability that UC San Diego covers the home line, and a 3% chance for Texas Southern to win, with a 1% chance of overtime. The next game will see UC San Diego maintain its dominant form.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 90.5 | 70.0 | 160.5 | +20.5 | 100% |
| Season at home (2) | 90.5 | 70.0 | 160.5 | +20.5 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 76.5 | 69.8 | 146.3 | +6.7 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 77.4 | 70.4 | 147.8 | +7.0 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger | no games | ||||
| vs Similar (14) | 69.8 | 69.7 | 139.5 | +0.1 | 50% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (15) | 77.5 | 70.2 | 147.7 | +7.3 | 73% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 76.0 | 91.0 | 167.0 | -15.0 | 33% |
| Season at home (1) | 98.0 | 78.0 | 176.0 | +20.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 65.0 | 97.5 | 162.5 | -32.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 76.3 | 78.1 | 154.4 | -1.8 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 72.2 | 85.6 | 157.8 | -13.4 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (11) | 68.2 | 88.4 | 156.5 | -20.2 | 9% |
| vs Similar (10) | 75.6 | 73.5 | 149.1 | +2.1 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (9) | 85.6 | 67.8 | 153.3 | +17.8 | 78% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.4 | 32.0 | 66.3 | +2.4 | 57% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 35.5 | 31.9 | 67.4 | +3.5 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 32.9 | 32.0 | 64.9 | +0.9 | 62% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.7 | 31.3 | 67.0 | +4.4 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 33.0 | 35.2 | 68.2 | -2.2 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger | no games | |||||
| vs Similar (14) | 32.0 | 31.3 | 63.3 | +0.7 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (15) | 36.2 | 31.8 | 68.0 | +4.4 | 67% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.5 | 37.7 | 72.2 | -3.2 | 37% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 36.2 | 33.4 | 69.6 | +2.8 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 32.8 | 42.1 | 74.9 | -9.3 | 20% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 34.7 | 38.1 | 72.8 | -3.4 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 33.6 | 39.4 | 73.0 | -5.8 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (11) | 30.6 | 45.6 | 76.3 | -15.0 | 9% | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 33.8 | 34.2 | 68.0 | -0.4 | 40% | - |
| vs Weaker (9) | 40.0 | 32.0 | 72.0 | +8.0 | 67% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/26 | H | Fresno State | 81-65 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Whittier | 100-75 |
| 13/03/26 | A | CS Northridge | 70-80 |
| 12/03/26 | H | Cal Poly | 72-69 |
| 08/03/26 | A | UC Santa Barbara | 64-63 |
| 06/03/26 | A | CS Fullerton | 71-75 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Cal Poly | 80-64 |
| 27/02/26 | H | CSU Bakersfield | 84-72 |
| 22/02/26 | A | UC Irvine | 71-69 |
| 15/02/26 | H | UC Riverside | 72-66 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | H | CBS Ambassadors | 98-78 |
| 07/11/26 | A | LSU | 51-92 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Grand Canyon | 79-103 |
| 12/03/26 | H | Alabama A&M Bulldogs | 74-85 OT |
| 06/03/26 | H | Prairie View A&M | 59-70 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Jackson State | 82-57 |
| 27/02/26 | H | Alcorn State | 92-87 OT |
| 21/02/26 | A | Miss. Valley St. | 71-72 |
| 20/02/26 | A | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 83-64 |
| 17/02/26 | H | Southern Univ. | 74-73 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WW | 100% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 90.5 | 90.5 | - |
| Allowed / game | 70.0 | 70.0 | - |
| Point differential | +20.5 | +20.5 | - |
| Avg total | 160.5 | 160.5 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLW | 33% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 76.0 | 98.0 | 65.0 |
| Allowed / game | 91.0 | 78.0 | 97.5 |
| Point differential | -15.0 | +20.0 | -32.5 |
| Avg total | 167.0 | 176.0 | 162.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UC Riverside | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 87.0 | 53.5 | +33.5 |
| 2 |  UC Irvine | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 61.7 | +29.3 |
| 3 |  CSU Bakersfield | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 92.0 | 67.0 | +25.0 |
| 4 |  UC Santa Barbara | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.7 | 61.7 | +22.0 |
| 5 | UC San Diego | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 90.5 | 70.0 | +20.5 |
| 6 |  Hawaii | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 81.8 | 63.0 | +18.8 |
| 7 |  UC Davis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 73.7 | 66.7 | +7.0 |
| 8 |  CS Fullerton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 82.5 | 93.5 | -11.0 |
| 9 |  Long Beach State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 65.0 | 69.3 | -4.3 |
| 10 |  Cal Poly | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.7 | 88.3 | -10.7 |
| 11 |  CS Northridge | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 72.5 | 87.0 | -14.5 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alabama A&M Bulldogs | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 80.0 | 62.7 | +17.3 |
| 2 |  Prairie View A&M | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 78.8 | 80.2 | -1.5 |
| 3 |  Grambling St. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 75.5 | 90.0 | -14.5 |
| 4 |  Alabama State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 69.7 | 78.7 | -9.0 |
| 5 | Texas Southern | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 91.0 | -15.0 |
| 6 |  Florida A&M | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 77.8 | 80.8 | -3.0 |
| 7 |  Jackson State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 66.5 | 85.8 | -19.2 |
| 8 |  Bethune-Cookman | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 71.0 | 85.5 | -14.5 |
| 9 |  Miss. Valley St. | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 62.3 | 87.0 | -24.7 |
| 10 |  Southern Univ. | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 60.2 | 87.5 | -27.2 |
| 11 |  Alcorn State | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 66.0 | 95.7 | -29.7 |
| 12 |  Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 50.3 | 107.0 | -56.7 |
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