LSU faces Texas Southern on 6 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names LSU the clear favourite, rating them 97% to win because of their 1-0 season record, 100.0 points per game and only 57.0 allowed per game, placing them 37th in the league. LSU's lone game was a 100-57 victory at home, and their home record is 1-0 with the same points per game and allowed figures; their last five games show one win and four losses, with a recent 100-57 win over New Orleans at home. Texas Southern, meanwhile, is 0-1 for the season, scoring 79.0 points per game while allowing 103.0, and sits 340th in the league; their road record is 0-1 with the same figures, and their last five games include two wins and three losses, but recent results include losses to Grand Canyon, Alabama A&M Bulldogs and Prairie View A&M. No head-to-head data is available. Pythia projects a 91-68 score, a total of 159.1 points, and gives LSU a 97% chance of winning versus Texas Southern's 3%. The model sees a 43% probability that the total will beat the 162.0 line, and a 1% chance of overtime. LSU's dominant offensive output and Texas Southern's defensive struggles suggest the game will follow the projected outcome.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
LSU winWon
97.2%fair 1.03
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Texas Southern winLost
2.8%fair 35.34
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (LSU) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 157Actual: Under 157
Over 157
55.2%
@ 1.67-3.2pp
Under 157
44.8%
@ 2.22+3.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.67
Bet365
1.58
Under
Bet365
2.22
Over/Under 162 · main lineActual: Under 162
Over 162
42.6%
@ 2.10-6.8pp
Under 162
57.4%
@ 1.88+6.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.81
1xBet
1.75
Bet365
1.66
Over/Under 167Actual: Under 167
Over 167
30.7%
@ 2.90-1.3pp
Under 167
69.3%
@ 1.36+1.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.90
Under
Bet365
1.36
📊 3. Team Totals
LSU total 91.5Actual: LSU over 91.5
Over 91.5
47.8%
@ 1.44-15.2pp
Under 91.5
52.2%
@ 2.45+15.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Under
Betano
2.45
LSU total 95.5 · main lineActual: LSU under 95.5
Over 95.5
32.2%
@ 1.91-17.8pp
Under 95.5
67.8%
@ 1.86+17.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.84
Marathon Be
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Be
1.86
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
LSU total 99.5Actual: LSU under 99.5
Over 99.5
19.3%
@ 2.65-27.6pp
Under 99.5
80.7%
@ 1.77+27.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.65
Pinnacle
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.77
Betano
1.37
Texas Southern total 60.5Actual: Texas Southern under 60.5
Over 60.5
77.8%
@ 1.39+12.6pp
Under 60.5
22.2%
@ 2.60-12.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Under
Betano
2.60
Texas Southern total 64.5 · main lineActual: Texas Southern under 64.5
Over 64.5
64.1%
@ 1.85+13.7pp
Under 64.5
35.9%
@ 1.91-13.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathon Be
1.84
Betano
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.86
Texas Southern total 68.5Actual: Texas Southern under 68.5
Over 68.5
48.4%
@ 2.62+13.9pp
Under 68.5
51.6%
@ 1.38-13.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.62
Under
Betano
1.38
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread LSU -36.5Actual: LSU -36.5
LSU -36.5
no forecast
@ 2.95
TEXA +36.5
no forecast
@ 1.78
Best 5 market prices
LSU
Betano
2.95
Bet365
2.80
Pinnacle
2.04
Marathon Be
1.90
TEXA
Marathon Be
1.78
Pinnacle
1.76
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.34
Spread LSU -33.5 · main lineActual: LSU -33.5
LSU -33.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
TEXA +33.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
Best 5 market prices
LSU
Bet365
2.22
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
TEXA
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Spread LSU -30.5Actual: LSU -30.5
LSU -30.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
TEXA +30.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
Best 5 market prices
LSU
1xBet
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
BetVictor
1.80
Marathon Be
1.77
TEXA
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.90
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
LSUTexas Southern
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
LSU under 99
80.1%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
-
+30.1pp
Won
LSU under 97.5
74.7%
1.90
Pinnacle
2.01
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.85
Betano
1.83
-
+28.0pp
Won
LSU under 98.5
77.8%
1.86
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
+27.8pp
Won
LSU under 99.5
80.7%
1.57
Pinnacle
1.77
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+27.6pp
Won
LSU under 98
77.1%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+27.2pp
Won
LSU under 96.5
71.3%
1.88
Pinnacle
2.00
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
+24.4pp
Won
LSU under 97
73.8%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+24.1pp
Won
Texas Southern over 63
70.3%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+20.5pp
Lost
Texas Southern over 62.5
71.4%
1.83
BetVictor
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
+20.4pp
Lost
Texas Southern over 61.5
74.7%
1.55
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
+20.2pp
Lost
LSU under 96
70.3%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
+20.0pp
Won
Texas Southern over 57.5
85.7%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+14.3pp
Lost
LSU under 100.5
83.3%
1.33
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+14.0pp
Won
Texas Southern over 60.5
77.8%
1.39
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Lost
LSU under 102.5
87.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Won
Texas Southern over 55.5
89.7%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Lost
LSU under 104.5
91.4%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Won
Texas Southern over 59.5
80.7%
1.31
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Lost
Texas Southern over 53.5
92.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Lost
Texas Southern over 51.5
95.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Lost
Texas Southern over 58.5
83.3%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Lost
Texas Southern over 56.5
87.8%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Lost
Texas Southern over 50.5
96.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Texas Southern over 52.5
94.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Lost
Texas Southern over 54.5
91.4%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Lost
Under 184.5
94.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Over 134.5
93.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
LSU over 76.5
92.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Under 167.5
70.0%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
LSU over 75.5
94.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Under 179.5
89.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Over 139.5
88.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
LSU over 78.5
89.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Under 169.5
74.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
Under 174.5
83.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
LSU over 77.5
91.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Over 144.5
81.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Lost
Over 149.5
72.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Lost
LSU over 80.5
85.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
LSU over 79.5
87.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
Texas Southern under 79.5
87.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.3pp
Won
LSU over 82.5
80.4%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Texas Southern under 77.5
82.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.0pp
Won
LSU over 81.5
83.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Won
LSU over 84.5
74.3%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-7.9pp
Won
Texas Southern under 75.5
77.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-10.4pp
Won
LSU over 83.5
77.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-11.2pp
Won
Texas Southern under 74.5
74.0%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-12.1pp
Won
Texas Southern under 73.5
70.6%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-12.4pp
Won
LSU over 85.5
71.0%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-15.1pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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